Arizona State at Texas State Week 3 College Football Matchup Arizona State at Texas State Matchup - Week 3
Thu, Sep 12 2024 · Week 3 · 🏟 Jim Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium San Marcos, TX · Turf · 30,000 cap
Arizona State✈ 858 mi+2 hr TZ
31 28
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Arizona State
33
ASU +2.5
Texas State
26
P&R Line Arizona State -6.5
P&R Total O/U 58.5
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas Texas State -2.5 · O/U 58.5
Matchup Prediction
Arizona State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Arizona State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Arizona State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Arizona State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Texas State -2.5
O/U 58.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Texas State 3rd straight Home Game
Arizona State 2024 Schedule
Arizona State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Arizona State vs Wyoming-6.5W48–747.0W48–7OY
Sat 9/7Arizona State vs Mississippi State-6.5W30–2357.5W30–23UY
Thu 9/12Arizona State at Texas State+2.5W31–2858.5W31–28OY
Sat 9/21Arizona State at Texas Tech+4.5L22–3058.5L22–30UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Arizona State vs Kansas-2.5W35–3150.0W35–31OY
Fri 10/11Arizona State vs Utah+6.0W27–1946.5W27–19UY
Sat 10/19Arizona State at Cincinnati+5.5L14–2451.0L14–24UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/2Arizona State at Oklahoma State-5.0W42–2157.0W42–21OY
Sat 11/9Arizona State vs UCF-2.5W35–3155.5W35–31OY
Sat 11/16Arizona State at Kansas State+7.5W24–1451.5W24–14UY
Sat 11/23Arizona State vs BYU-3.5W28–2349.0W28–23OY
Sat 11/30Arizona State at Arizona-7.5W49–752.5W49–7OY
Sat 12/7Arizona State vs Iowa State+1.5W45–1951.5W45–19OY
Wed 1/1Arizona State vs Texas+13.5L31–3952.5L31–39OY
Texas State 2024 Schedule
Texas State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Texas State vs Lamar-26
Sat 9/7Texas State vs UTSA-2.5W49–1058.5W49–10OY
Thu 9/12Texas State vs Arizona State-2.5L28–3158.5L28–31ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28Texas State vs Sam Houston-11.0L39–4055.0L39–40ON
Thu 10/3Texas State at Troy-14.5W38–1756.0W38–17UY
Sat 10/12Texas State vs Arkansas State-13.5W41–966.0W41–9UY
Sat 10/19Texas State at Old Dominion-10.5L14–2460.0L14–24UN
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/29Texas State vs Louisiana-4.0L17–2360.5L17–23UN
Sat 11/9Texas State at UL Monroe-9.5W38–1750.0W38–17OY
Sat 11/16Texas State vs Southern Miss-27.5W58–356.5W58–3OY
Sat 11/23Texas State vs Georgia State-23.0L44–5259.5L44–52ON
Fri 11/29Texas State at South Alabama-2.5W45–3860.5W45–38OY
Fri 1/3Texas State vs North Texas-15.5W30–2867.5W30–28UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Arizona State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Arizona State #13
+0.448
Texas State #25
+0.373
Arizona State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Arizona State #14
+0.579
Texas State #13
+0.609
Texas State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Arizona State #75
0.156
Texas State #26
0.186
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Texas State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Arizona State #48
+7.612
Texas State #72
+7.536
Arizona State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Arizona State #8
+0.885
Texas State #17
+0.905
Texas State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Arizona State #78
71.4
Texas State #28
69.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Texas State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Arizona State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Arizona State
7.3
Texas State
1.5
Offense Rating
Arizona State
21.3
Texas State
17.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Arizona State
13.9
Texas State
16.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Arizona State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Arizona State #47
2.50
Texas State #53
2.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Arizona State #19
0.50
Texas State #11
0.00
Arizona State +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Arizona State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Arizona State #1
91.2
Texas State #1
86.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Arizona State #28
5.1
Texas State #17
6.3
Arizona State +4.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Arizona State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Arizona State
Kenny Dillingham #1
3–9 (25%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Marcus Arroyo Yr 1 #1
DC Brian Ward Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Texas State
G. J. Kinne #1
8–5 (62%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Mack Leftwich Yr 2 #1
DC Dexter McCoil Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself