Thu, Sep 12 2024
·
Week 3
·
🏟 Jim Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium
San Marcos, TX
·
Turf
·
30,000 cap
Arizona State✈ 858 mi+2 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Arizona State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Arizona State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Arizona State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Arizona State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Texas State -2.5
O/U 58.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Arizona State 2024 Schedule
Arizona State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Arizona State vs Wyoming | -6.5W48–7 | 47.0 | W48–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Arizona State vs Mississippi State | -6.5W30–23 | 57.5 | W30–23 | U | Y |
| Thu 9/12 | Arizona State at Texas State | +2.5W31–28 | 58.5 | W31–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Arizona State at Texas Tech | +4.5L22–30 | 58.5 | L22–30 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Arizona State vs Kansas | -2.5W35–31 | 50.0 | W35–31 | O | Y |
| Fri 10/11 | Arizona State vs Utah | +6.0W27–19 | 46.5 | W27–19 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Arizona State at Cincinnati | +5.5L14–24 | 51.0 | L14–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/2 | Arizona State at Oklahoma State | -5.0W42–21 | 57.0 | W42–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Arizona State vs UCF | -2.5W35–31 | 55.5 | W35–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Arizona State at Kansas State | +7.5W24–14 | 51.5 | W24–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Arizona State vs BYU | -3.5W28–23 | 49.0 | W28–23 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Arizona State at Arizona | -7.5W49–7 | 52.5 | W49–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/7 | Arizona State vs Iowa State | +1.5W45–19 | 51.5 | W45–19 | O | Y |
| Wed 1/1 | Arizona State vs Texas | +13.5L31–39 | 52.5 | L31–39 | O | Y |
Texas State 2024 Schedule
Texas State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Texas State vs Lamar | -26 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/7 | Texas State vs UTSA | -2.5W49–10 | 58.5 | W49–10 | O | Y |
| Thu 9/12 | Texas State vs Arizona State | -2.5L28–31 | 58.5 | L28–31 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/28 | Texas State vs Sam Houston | -11.0L39–40 | 55.0 | L39–40 | O | N |
| Thu 10/3 | Texas State at Troy | -14.5W38–17 | 56.0 | W38–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Texas State vs Arkansas State | -13.5W41–9 | 66.0 | W41–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Texas State at Old Dominion | -10.5L14–24 | 60.0 | L14–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/29 | Texas State vs Louisiana | -4.0L17–23 | 60.5 | L17–23 | U | N |
| Sat 11/9 | Texas State at UL Monroe | -9.5W38–17 | 50.0 | W38–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Texas State vs Southern Miss | -27.5W58–3 | 56.5 | W58–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Texas State vs Georgia State | -23.0L44–52 | 59.5 | L44–52 | O | N |
| Fri 11/29 | Texas State at South Alabama | -2.5W45–38 | 60.5 | W45–38 | O | Y |
| Fri 1/3 | Texas State vs North Texas | -15.5W30–28 | 67.5 | W30–28 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Arizona State Edge
Arizona State +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Arizona State Edge
Arizona State +4.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Arizona State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Arizona State
Kenny Dillingham #1
3–9 (25%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Marcus Arroyo
Yr 1
#1
DC
Brian Ward
Yr 2
#1
Texas State
G. J. Kinne #1
8–5 (62%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Mack Leftwich
Yr 2
#1
DC
Dexter McCoil
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

