Cincinnati at Texas Tech Week 5 College Football Matchup Cincinnati at Texas Tech Matchup - Week 5
Sun, Sep 29 2024 · Week 5 · 🏟 Jones AT&T Stadium Lubbock, TX · Turf · 60,862 cap
Cincinnati✈ 1,036 mi-1 hr TZ
41 44
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Cincinnati
28
Texas Tech
33
P&R Line Texas Tech -5
P&R Total O/U 60.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Texas Tech -3 · O/U 60.0
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Texas Tech, while Game Control favors Cincinnati. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Texas Tech wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Cincinnati wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Texas Tech -3
O/U 60.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Cincinnati · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Texas Tech 3rd straight Home Game
Cincinnati 2024 Schedule
Cincinnati's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Cincinnati vs Towson-33.5W38–2056.5W38–20ON
Sat 9/7Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh+2.5L27–2862.5L27–28UY
Sat 9/14Cincinnati at Miami (OH)-3.5W27–1647.5W27–16UY
Sat 9/21Cincinnati vs Houston-4.0W34–047.5W34–0UY
Sat 9/28Cincinnati at Texas Tech+3.0L41–4460.0L41–44OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Cincinnati at UCF+2.0W19–1358.0W19–13UY
Sat 10/19Cincinnati vs Arizona State-5.5W24–1451.0W24–14UY
Sat 10/26Cincinnati at Colorado+6.0L23–3457.0L23–34UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Cincinnati vs West Virginia-5.5L24–3154.5L24–31ON
Sat 11/16Cincinnati at Iowa State+7.0L17–3452.5L17–34UN
Sat 11/23Cincinnati at Kansas State+7.5L15–4154.5L15–41ON
Sat 11/30Cincinnati vs TCU+2.5L13–2058.5L13–20UN
Texas Tech 2024 Schedule
Texas Tech's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Texas Tech vs Abilene Christian-34.5W52–5158.5W52–51ON
Sat 9/7Texas Tech at Washington State-2.5L16–3764.5L16–37UN
Sat 9/14Texas Tech vs North Texas-10.5W66–2170.5W66–21OY
Sat 9/21Texas Tech vs Arizona State-4.5W30–2258.5W30–22UY
Sat 9/28Texas Tech vs Cincinnati-3.0W44–4160.0W44–41ON
Sat 10/5Texas Tech at Arizona+6.0W28–2264.0W28–22UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19Texas Tech vs Baylor-4.5L35–5956.0L35–59ON
Sat 10/26Texas Tech at TCU+5.0L34–3566.0L34–35OY
Sat 11/2Texas Tech at Iowa State+13.5W23–2255.0W23–22UY
Sat 11/9Texas Tech vs Colorado+5.0L27–4162.0L27–41ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Texas Tech at Oklahoma State-5.0W56–4863.5W56–48OY
Sat 11/30Texas Tech vs West Virginia-2.5W52–1561.5W52–15OY
Fri 12/27Texas Tech vs Arkansas-3.5L26–3952.5L26–39ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Cincinnati PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Cincinnati
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Cincinnati #59
+0.437
Texas Tech #33
+0.424
Cincinnati Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Cincinnati #63
+0.596
Texas Tech #44
+0.547
Cincinnati Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Cincinnati #67
0.162
Texas Tech #123
0.125
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Cincinnati Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Cincinnati #118
+7.296
Texas Tech #7
+8.232
Texas Tech Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Cincinnati #43
+0.883
Texas Tech #50
+0.864
Cincinnati Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Cincinnati #124
73.6
Texas Tech #28
69.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Texas Tech Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Texas Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Cincinnati
-1.3
Texas Tech
27.6
Offense Rating
Cincinnati
13.7
Texas Tech
29.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Cincinnati
15.0
Texas Tech
1.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Texas Tech Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Cincinnati #38
1.67
Texas Tech #9
2.33
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Cincinnati #73
1.00
Texas Tech #63
0.33
Texas Tech +0.67
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Cincinnati Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Cincinnati #1
81.5
Texas Tech #1
63.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Cincinnati #66
7.2
Texas Tech #46
26.0
Cincinnati +18.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Cincinnati
Scott Satterfield #1
3–9 (25%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Brad Glenn Yr 2 #1
DC Nate Fuqua Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Texas Tech
Joey McGuire #1
15–11 (58%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Zach Kittley Yr 3 #1
DC Tim DeRuyter Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself