UCF at Arizona State Week 11 College Football Matchup UCF at Arizona State Matchup - Week 11
Sun, Nov 10 2024 · Week 11 · 🏟 Sun Devil Stadium Tempe, AZ · Turf · 56,232 cap
UCF✈ 1,843 mi-3 hr TZ
Away
31 35
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
UCF
22
Arizona State
35
P&R Line Arizona State -13.5
P&R Total O/U 56.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Arizona State -2.5 · O/U 55.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors UCF, while Game Control favors Arizona State. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
UCF wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Arizona State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Arizona State -2.5
O/U 55.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Arizona State · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
UCF 2024 Schedule
UCF's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29UCF vs New Hampshire-38.5W57–358.5W57–3OY
Sat 9/7UCF vs Sam Houston-21.5W45–1453.5W45–14OY
Sat 9/14UCF at TCU+1.5W35–3461.5W35–34OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28UCF vs Colorado-12.5L21–4860.5L21–48ON
Sat 10/5UCF at Florida-1.0L13–2462.0L13–24UN
Sat 10/12UCF vs Cincinnati-2.0L13–1958.0L13–19UN
Sat 10/19UCF at Iowa State+13.0L35–3849.5L35–38OY
Sat 10/26UCF vs BYU-2.5L24–3753.5L24–37ON
Sat 11/2UCF vs Arizona-6.5W56–1255.0W56–12OY
Sat 11/9UCF at Arizona State+2.5L31–3555.5L31–35ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23UCF at West Virginia-3.0L21–3160.0L21–31UN
Fri 11/29UCF vs Utah-9.5L14–2845.5L14–28UN
Arizona State 2024 Schedule
Arizona State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Arizona State vs Wyoming-6.5W48–747.0W48–7OY
Sat 9/7Arizona State vs Mississippi State-6.5W30–2357.5W30–23UY
Thu 9/12Arizona State at Texas State+2.5W31–2858.5W31–28OY
Sat 9/21Arizona State at Texas Tech+4.5L22–3058.5L22–30UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Arizona State vs Kansas-2.5W35–3150.0W35–31OY
Fri 10/11Arizona State vs Utah+6.0W27–1946.5W27–19UY
Sat 10/19Arizona State at Cincinnati+5.5L14–2451.0L14–24UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/2Arizona State at Oklahoma State-5.0W42–2157.0W42–21OY
Sat 11/9Arizona State vs UCF-2.5W35–3155.5W35–31OY
Sat 11/16Arizona State at Kansas State+7.5W24–1451.5W24–14UY
Sat 11/23Arizona State vs BYU-3.5W28–2349.0W28–23OY
Sat 11/30Arizona State at Arizona-7.5W49–752.5W49–7OY
Sat 12/7Arizona State vs Iowa State+1.5W45–1951.5W45–19OY
Wed 1/1Arizona State vs Texas+13.5L31–3952.5L31–39OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Arizona State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Arizona State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
UCF #58
+0.330
Arizona State #13
+0.472
Arizona State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
UCF #123
+0.309
Arizona State #14
+0.647
Arizona State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
UCF #64
0.163
Arizona State #75
0.156
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
UCF Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
UCF #86
+7.394
Arizona State #48
+8.506
Arizona State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
UCF #28
+0.885
Arizona State #8
+0.898
Arizona State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
UCF #35
69.4
Arizona State #78
71.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
UCF Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Arizona State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
UCF
4.2
Arizona State
7.3
Offense Rating
UCF
17.6
Arizona State
21.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
UCF
13.4
Arizona State
13.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? UCF Edge
Avg sequences created per game
UCF #62
1.13
Arizona State #47
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
UCF #75
1.38
Arizona State #19
0.75
UCF +0.13
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Arizona State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
UCF #1
41.4
Arizona State #1
47.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
UCF #113
48.1
Arizona State #28
34.0
Arizona State +5.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
UCF
Gus Malzahn #1
24–16 (60%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Tim Harris Jr. Yr 1 #1
DC Ted Roof Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Arizona State
Kenny Dillingham #1
3–9 (25%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Marcus Arroyo Yr 1 #1
DC Brian Ward Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself