BYU at TCU - 2026 Matchup Preview
BYU logo

BYU Cougars at TCU Horned Frogs

TCU logo
Saturday, October 3rd 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Amon G. Carter Stadium - Fort Worth, TX  (Big 12)

 
Cougars (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Kalani Sitake (84 - 45)
Avg Score : 31 - 19 (28 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.3 - 2.7 (#11)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 2) (Avg: 6) (Bad: 1)
BYU coming off BYE
TCU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: BYU -5.5  (SP+ BYU -7.5)
Projected Score: BYU: 30 - TCU: 24 (54)
BYU Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
BYU Travel: 948 miles, 1 hrs behind
Horned Frogs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Sonny Dykes (36 - 17)
Avg Score : 31 - 25 (36 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.3 - 4.7 (#39)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 3) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 3)
 
BYU's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 BYU vs Utah Tech-40.5
Sat 9/12 BYU vs Arizona-10.5
Sat 9/19 BYU at Colorado State-25.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/3 BYU at TCU-5.5
Sat 10/10 BYU vs Iowa State-12.5
Sat 10/17 BYU vs Notre Dame+7
Sat 10/24 BYU at UCF-10.5
Sat 10/31 BYU vs Arizona State-13.5
Sat 11/7 BYU at Utah+3.5
Sat 11/14 BYU vs Baylor-15.5
Sat 11/21 BYU at Kansas-11
Sat 11/28 BYU vs Cincinnati-17

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 6, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 6, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for BYU's Schedule
TCU's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29 TCU vs North Carolina-12.5
Sat 9/12 TCU vs Grambling-33
Sat 9/19 TCU vs Arkansas State-24
Sat 9/26 TCU at UCF-2.5
Sat 10/3 TCU vs BYU+5.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/17 TCU at Baylor-2.5
Sat 10/24 TCU vs West Virginia-11.5
Sat 10/31 TCU vs Kansas-8
Sat 11/7 TCU at Arizona+2.5
Sat 11/14 TCU vs Kansas State-4
Sat 11/21 TCU vs Utah+6
Sat 11/28 TCU at Texas Tech+20.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for TCU's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BYU#34 (.22)46% (33)31.447% (32)3 (58)17944% (48)2214.03 (39)#31 (.09)39% (37)19.139% (33)40% (59)3.29 (35)45.41.11.7
TCU#36 (.21)44% (48)30.743% (79)2.7 (113)13247% (24)2904.14 (34)#59 (.15)40% (53)25.338% (23)43% (86)3.49 (54)621.51.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BYU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TCU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BYU Offense1431.427.545.5%4.031.1224001792214.853%45%47%44%14%.22
TCU Defense1325.324.240.3%3.491.6 - - - - - 48%50%38%43%15%.15
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BYU Defense1419.121.839.1%3.291.7 - - - - - 47%52%39%40%16%.09
TCU Offense1330.73644.3%4.141.522422132290445%53%43%47%15%.21

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
BYU1432:4221.941%58%5.445.41.11.75.32.1428.8
TCU1328:5122.247%64%6.8621.51.65.21.8130
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BYU Offense1453% (37)47% (32)37.7179.14.833 (16).2 (26)3 (58)82% (5)8% (27)0.95 (77)
TCU Defense1348% (51)38% (23) - - - - .06 (44)2.84 (58)68% (48)9% (84)0.88 (26)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BYU Defense1447% (33)39% (33) - - - - .06 (45)2.83 (54)75% (96)10% (70)0.96 (71)
TCU Offense1345% (104)43% (79)33.3131.8420 (60).04 (109)2.7 (113)77% (35)9% (71)0.83 (121)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BYU Offense1445% (102)44% (48)18.428.8221.17.712.115 (86)7 (20).28 (54)1.5 (94)30% (40)30% (76).34 (54)6% (65)2.1 (47)
TCU Defense1350% (85)43% (86) - - - - - - 14 (22).3 (92)1.7 (111)32% (66)32% (94).35 (96)6% (75)2.1 (102)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BYU Defense1452% (107)40% (59) - - - - - - 17 (12).18 (37)1.5 (23)34% (36)26% (22).16 (16)6% (52)1.9 (24)
TCU Offense1353% (34)47% (24)23.535.4290.18.212.330 (3)15 (108).41 (20)1.6 (35)33% (89)34% (23).45 (20)6% (72)2.1 (26)

BYU's Power Ratings
BYU's Power Rating: 18.37  #20
BYU's Offense Rating: 19.78  #23
BYU's Defense Rating: 6.41  #17
2026 Talent Rating: 834.00  #51
Blue Chip Ratio: 11%  #36
BYU's 2026 Expected Record: 9.3 - 2.7
BYU's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.9  #18
BYU's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.9  #24
BYU's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.8  #22

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 824
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9

Power Ratings Matchup
BYU: 18.37   TCU: 11.845

SP+ Ratings Matchup
BYU: 15.9   TCU: 8.3




TCU's Power Ratings
TCU's Power Rating: 11.845  #36
TCU's Offense Rating: 15.31  #51
TCU's Defense Rating: 9.92  #32
2026 Talent Rating: 890.00  #38
Blue Chip Ratio: 13  #30
TCU's 2026 Expected Record: 7.3 - 4.7
TCU's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.3  #37
TCU's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.9  #30
TCU's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.9  #50

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 824
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9


BYU Scoring
Offense: 31.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.5
Defense: 19.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.8

BYU's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
BYU 30
TCU 24

Projected Total Points: 54
TCU Scoring
Offense: 30.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 36
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.2

TCU's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/15BYU44TCU13BYU -3BYU51.5Over
202310/14TCU44BYU11TCU -5TCU52.5Over
201110/28TCU38BYU28
201010/16TCU31BYU3
200910/24BYU7TCU38
200810/16TCU32BYU7
200711/08BYU27TCU22
200609/28TCU17BYU31
200509/24BYU50TCU51
TeamWinsCoversO/U
TCU612 Overs
BYU310 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams6 - 32 - 02 - 00 - 0
Road Teams3 - 60 - 20 - 00 - 2

(#20) BYU at (#36) TCU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBYUTCU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #20 #36
SP+SP+ #18 #37
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #51 #38
Blue ChipsBC% #36 #30
BYU Notes
(2/14) Vibes: High, B12 race, WR now huge concern
(2/13) Lead WR Parker Kingston kicked off team (legal)
(2/10) 17 back w starting exp, most in CFB, 6 exp depth
(2/2) HC Sitake renaissance last two years, great job
(1/29) New DC Poppinga (STC in '25) in for Jay Hill (UM)
(1/29) QB Bachmeier back, good Fr yr. Lyons big croot
(1/29) RB LJ Martin is a load, gets 90% of carries. Depth?
(1/29) WR Kingston back, big return. Must find depth
(1/29) OL 3 starters back, 2/3 portal adds starters.
(1/29) DL decent, returns 2-3 starters. Depth has options
(1/29) LBs have exp, 2 starters + portal Uluave (Cal) big
(1/29) DBs look really good. Pass Def was good LY
BYU Injury Report
TCU Notes
(2/17) Vibes: High, Dykes a quiet 18 wins past 2 yrs
(2/12) New OC Sammis was really good @ UConn
(2/3) QB Craig (Harvard) 24 starts bypassed NFL draft
(2/3) RB Payne good find LY, depth looks thin and ?
(2/3) WR has parts w #1 Dwyer back & depth options
(2/3) OL has good parts, 6 proven guys w starting exp
(2/3) DTs are decent, DE has huge ? after Chapman
(2/3) LBs lack in exp & good options even w 3 portals
(2/3) DBs look good, 2 good CBs & 2 at S. Depth has ?
TCU Injury Report
BYU on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
BYU OffTCU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #33 #53
ExplosiveExp #106 #92
PPAPPA #34 #59
PowerPwr #23 #32
SP+SP+ #24 #50
Pts POPPO #39 #54
HavocHav #43 #86
BYU Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
BYU OffTCU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #32 #23
Run ExplRExp #77 #26
PPAExp #26 #44
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #58 #58
Stuff RateStuff #39 #95
TackleTak - NR
BYU Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
BYU OffTCU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #48 #86
Pass ExplPExl #94 #111
PPAExp #54 #92
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #27 #84
DB HavocDB #65 #75
TCU on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatTCU OffBYU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #48 #37
ExplosiveExp #46 #54
PPAPPA #36 #31
PowerPwr #51 #17
SP+SP+ #30 #22
Pts POPPO #34 #35
HavocHav #64 #65
TCU Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
TCU OffBYU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #79 #33
Run ExplRExp #121 #71
PPAExp #109 #45
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #113 #54
Stuff RateStuff #114 #38
TackleTak - NR
TCU Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatTCU OffBYU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #24 #59
Pass ExplPExl #35 #23
PPAExp #20 #37
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #71 #70
DB HavocDB #72 #52
Program Comparison
TCU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'26 Profile: Remains Average P4

BYU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'26 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Amon G. Carter Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
BYU beat TCU last year (44-13)
TCU beat BYU in 2023 (44-11)

  
BYU's OC Aaron Roderick (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bear Bachmeier25138765%30331577.8
Treyson Bourguet1250%8004.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
LJ Martin2361305125.549
Bear Bachmeier147527113.622
Jovesa Damuni1911115.819
Cody Hagen993210.357
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
LJ Martin3625507.126
Walker Lyons (Tr)20223211.226
Jojo Phillips14161011.521
Cody Hagen129708.124

View BYU's Full Roster

BYU's DC Kelly Poppinga (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cade Uluave (Tr)9712344
Faletau Satuala798114
Isaiah Glasker639391
Siale Esera443141
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cade Uluave (Tr)9712344
Bodie Schoonover335333
Isaiah Glasker639391
Anisi Purcell112200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Evan Johnson422107
Therrian Alexander313125
Cade Uluave (Tr)9712344

TCU's OC Gordon Sammis (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jaden Craig (Tr)20433162%28292578.5
John Hoyet Chance010%0000.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeremy Payne11062355.751
Jon Denman5017833.616
Jaden Craig (Tr)487831.626
Major Everhart5701.411
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Dwyer54730713.569
Jeremy Scott (Tr)24417417.474
Jeremy Payne2220729.444
Ed Small16186211.641

View TCU's Full Roster

TCU's DC Andy Avalos (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamel Johnson963003
Jacob Fields (Tr)903015
Kalen Carroll (Tr)492014
Vernon Glover411006
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kylin Jackson265321
Koron Hayward (Tr)194321
Paul Oyewale318220
Ansel Din-Mbuh247220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Vernon Glover411006
Jacob Fields (Tr)903015
Kalen Carroll (Tr)492014