Arkansas State at TCU - 2026 Matchup Preview
Arkansas State logo Arkansas State Red Wolves at TCU Horned FrogsTCU logo
Saturday, September 19th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Amon G. Carter Stadium - Fort Worth, TX

 
Red Wolves (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (26 - 37)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (21 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 6.5 (#73)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
TCU 3rd straight Home Game
Our Line: TCU -21.5  (SP+ TCU -17)
Projected Score: ARST: 16 - TCU: 37 (53)
TCU Win prob: 95% | Cover: 49%
ARST Travel: 440 miles
Horned Frogs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Sonny Dykes (36 - 17)
Avg Score : 31 - 25 (36 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 4.7 (#50)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Arkansas State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/19 Arkansas State at TCU+21.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule
TCU's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29 TCU vs North Carolina-11.5
Sat 9/12 TCU vs Grambling-31.5
Sat 9/19 TCU vs Arkansas State-21.5
Sat 9/26 TCU at UCF-8
Sat 10/3 TCU vs BYU+4.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/17 TCU at Baylor-3.5
Sat 10/24 TCU vs West Virginia-13
Sat 10/31 TCU vs Kansas-9
Sat 11/7 TCU at Arizona+2.5
Sat 11/14 TCU vs Kansas State-4.5
Sat 11/21 TCU vs Utah+6
Sat 11/28 TCU at Texas Tech+21

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for TCU's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARST#111 (.09)42% (71)25.240% (101)2.65 (119)12444% (47)2603.31 (110)#89 (.19)43% (92)27.444% (83)44% (98)3.9 (89)57.81.81.3
TCU#36 (.21)44% (48)30.743% (79)2.7 (113)13247% (24)2904.14 (34)#59 (.15)40% (53)25.338% (23)43% (86)3.49 (54)621.51.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TCU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARST Offense1325.22142%3.311.8223831242603.642%56%40%44%18%.09
TCU Defense1325.324.240.3%3.491.6 - - - - - 48%50%38%43%15%.15
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARST Defense1327.421.843.4%3.91.3 - - - - - 52%46%44%44%16%.19
TCU Offense1330.73644.3%4.141.522422132290445%53%43%47%15%.21

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Arkansas State1329:3122.239%60%6.357.81.81.36.23330.4
TCU1328:5122.247%64%6.8621.51.65.21.8130
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARST Offense1342% (123)40% (101)34.5123.53.614 (107)-.01 (125)2.65 (119)70% (80)10% (91)0.8 (126)
TCU Defense1348% (51)38% (23) - - - - .06 (44)2.84 (58)68% (48)9% (84)0.88 (26)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARST Defense1352% (96)44% (83) - - - - .12 (82)2.75 (44)69% (49)11% (40)1.01 (95)
TCU Offense1345% (104)43% (79)33.3131.8420 (60).04 (109)2.7 (113)77% (35)9% (71)0.83 (121)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARST Offense1356% (13)44% (47)25.739.1259.86.710.120 (86)12 (60).21 (86)1.4 (123)30% (45)28% (86).27 (83)8% (125)2.1 (28)
TCU Defense1350% (85)43% (86) - - - - - - 14 (22).3 (92)1.7 (111)32% (66)32% (94).35 (96)6% (75)2.1 (102)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARST Defense1346% (46)44% (98) - - - - - - 7 (75).31 (100)1.6 (89)30% (88)32% (97).42 (118)5% (108)2.2 (119)
TCU Offense1353% (34)47% (24)23.535.4290.18.212.330 (3)15 (108).41 (20)1.6 (35)33% (89)34% (23).45 (20)6% (72)2.1 (26)

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -12.89  #111
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 5.56  #96
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 23.45  #114
2026 Talent Rating: 620.00  #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 2%  #79
Arkansas State's 2026 Expected Record: 6.5 - 6.5
Arkansas State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.8  #100
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.4  #90
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5  #111

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 516.43
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -12.89   TCU: 10.67

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -8.8   TCU: 8.3




TCU's Power Ratings
TCU's Power Rating: 10.67  #32
TCU's Offense Rating: 13.74  #45
TCU's Defense Rating: 10.70  #30
2026 Talent Rating: 866.00  #32
Blue Chip Ratio: 16  #31
TCU's 2026 Expected Record: 8.3 - 4.7
TCU's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.3  #37
TCU's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.9  #30
TCU's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.9  #50

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 796.63
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75


Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 21
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.8

Arkansas State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
TCU 37
Arkansas State 16

Projected Total Points: 53
TCU Scoring
Offense: 30.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 36
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.2

TCU's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
200009/22TCU52Arkansas State3
TeamWinsCoversO/U
TCU100 Overs
Arkansas State000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 00 - 00 - 0

(#111) ARST at (#32) TCU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatARSTTCU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #111 #32
SP+SP+ #100 #37
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #82 #32
Blue ChipsBC% #79 #31
Arkansas State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
ARST OffTCU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #71 #53
ExplosiveExp #127 #92
PPAPPA #111 #59
PowerPwr #96 #30
SP+SP+ #90 #50
Pts POPPO #110 #54
HavocHav #111 #86
Arkansas State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
ARST OffTCU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #101 #23
Run ExplRExp #126 #26
PPAExp #125 #44
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #119 #58
Stuff RateStuff #111 #95
TackleTak - NR
Arkansas State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
ARST OffTCU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #47 #86
Pass ExplPExl #123 #111
PPAExp #86 #92
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #91 #84
DB HavocDB #125 #75
TCU on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatTCU OffARST Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #48 #92
ExplosiveExp #46 #93
PPAPPA #36 #89
PowerPwr #45 #114
SP+SP+ #30 #111
Pts POPPO #34 #89
HavocHav #64 #72
TCU Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
TCU OffARST Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #79 #83
Run ExplRExp #121 #95
PPAExp #109 #82
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #113 #44
Stuff RateStuff #114 #64
TackleTak - NR
TCU Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatTCU OffARST Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #24 #98
Pass ExplPExl #35 #89
PPAExp #20 #100
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #71 #40
DB HavocDB #72 #108
Program Comparison
TCU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'26 Profile: Remains Average P4

ARST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'26 Profile: Up to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Amon G. Carter Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Dickey (Tr)1250%280014.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Devin Spencer10855935.243
Kenyon Clay13952333.830
Kameron Thomas83804.823
Drew Dickey (Tr)31314.39
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chauncy Cobb73797110.951
Hunter Summers44505411.543
Kenyon Clay3720535.527
Jaylen Bonelli2220039.134

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Griffin McCarley (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
AG McGhee833015
Brandon Barnes683012
Nigel Nelson541102
Brandon Greil533101
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Shakai Woods (Tr)487331
Simeon Mitchell463221
Noland Asberry51100
Nigel Nelson541102
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
AG McGhee833015
Five Hamilton (Tr)382002
Brandon Barnes683012

TCU's OC Gordon Sammis (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jaden Craig (Tr)20433162%28292578.5
John Hoyet Chance010%0000.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeremy Payne11062355.751
Jon Denman5017833.616
Jaden Craig (Tr)487831.626
Major Everhart5701.411
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Dwyer54730713.569
Jeremy Scott (Tr)24417417.474
Jeremy Payne2220729.444
Ed Small16186211.641

View TCU's Full Roster

TCU's DC Andy Avalos (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamel Johnson963003
Jacob Fields (Tr)903015
Kalen Carroll (Tr)492014
Vernon Glover411006
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Koron Hayward (Tr)194321
Kylin Jackson265321
Ansel Din-Mbuh247220
Zachary Chapman283240
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Vernon Glover411006
Jacob Fields (Tr)903015
Kalen Carroll (Tr)492014