TCU at UCF - 2026 Matchup Preview
TCU logo TCU Horned Frogs at UCF KnightsUCF logo
Saturday, September 26th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Bright House Networks Stadium - Orlando, FL

 
Horned Frogs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Sonny Dykes (36 - 17)
Avg Score : 31 - 25 (26 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 4.7 (#50)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
UCF 2nd straight Home Game
UCF is playing their 4th straight game
TCU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: TCU -8  (SP+ TCU -9.5)
Projected Score: TCU: 30 - UCF: 22 (51)
TCU Win prob: 74% | Cover: 48%
TCU Travel: 1001 miles, 1 hrs behind
Knights (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Scott Frost (24 - 14)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (33 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#84)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
TCU's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29 TCU vs North Carolina-11.5
Sat 9/12 TCU vs Grambling-31.5
Sat 9/19 TCU vs Arkansas State-21.5
Sat 9/26 TCU at UCF-8
Sat 10/3 TCU vs BYU+4.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/17 TCU at Baylor-3.5
Sat 10/24 TCU vs West Virginia-13
Sat 10/31 TCU vs Kansas-9
Sat 11/7 TCU at Arizona+2.5
Sat 11/14 TCU vs Kansas State-4.5
Sat 11/21 TCU vs Utah+6
Sat 11/28 TCU at Texas Tech+21

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for TCU's Schedule
UCF's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/3 UCF vs Bethune-Cookman-21
Sat 9/12 UCF at Pittsburgh+13
Sat 9/19 UCF vs Georgia State-22
Sat 9/26 UCF vs TCU+8
Sat 10/3 UCF at Houston+11.5
Sat 10/10 UCF at Oklahoma State-3.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/24 UCF vs BYU+15
Sat 10/31 UCF vs Baylor+2
Sat 11/7 UCF at Kansas+6
Sat 11/14 UCF vs Arizona State+3.5
Sat 11/21 UCF vs Iowa State+4
Sat 11/28 UCF at Colorado-3

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UCF's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TCU#36 (.21)44% (48)30.743% (79)2.7 (113)13247% (24)2904.14 (34)#59 (.15)40% (53)25.338% (23)43% (86)3.49 (54)621.51.6
UCF#88 (.14)39% (107)24.339% (111)2.61 (126)15840% (93)2213.49 (94)#51 (.12)44% (95)23.647% (116)40% (54)3.52 (55)57.21.51.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TCU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UCF0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TCU Offense1330.725.544.3%4.141.522422132290445%53%43%47%15%.21
UCF Defense1223.615.743.7%3.521.2 - - - - - 54%45%47%40%16%.12
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TCU Defense1325.326.240.3%3.491.6 - - - - - 48%50%38%43%15%.15
UCF Offense1224.332.639.1%3.491.5183791582214.945%53%39%40%17%.14

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
TCU1328:5122.247%64%6.8621.51.65.21.8130
UCF1229:5518.234%56%7.657.21.51.25.62.1228.4
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TCU Offense1345% (104)43% (79)33.3131.8420 (60).04 (109)2.7 (113)77% (35)9% (71)0.83 (121)
UCF Defense1254% (110)47% (116) - - - - .12 (84)3.06 (101)85% (132)10% (46)0.88 (28)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TCU Defense1348% (51)38% (23) - - - - .06 (44)2.84 (58)68% (48)9% (84)0.88 (26)
UCF Offense1245% (106)39% (111)32.3158.24.919 (26).11 (68)2.61 (126)62% (123)11% (107)1.25 (1)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TCU Offense1353% (34)47% (24)23.535.4290.18.212.330 (3)15 (108).41 (20)1.6 (35)33% (89)34% (23).45 (20)6% (72)2.1 (26)
UCF Defense1245% (28)40% (54) - - - - - - 9 (55).16 (28)1.4 (19)31% (81)25% (16).11 (7)6% (62)1.7 (5)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TCU Defense1350% (85)43% (86) - - - - - - 14 (22).3 (92)1.7 (111)32% (66)32% (94).35 (96)6% (75)2.1 (102)
UCF Offense1253% (30)40% (93)20.833.6220.86.610.612 (114)12 (34).18 (104)1.5 (102)33% (105)24% (126).19 (116)7% (92)2.3 (9)

TCU's Power Ratings
TCU's Power Rating: 8.04  #32
TCU's Offense Rating: 13.74  #45
TCU's Defense Rating: 10.70  #30
2026 Talent Rating: 866.00  #32
Blue Chip Ratio: 16%  #31
TCU's 2026 Expected Record: 8.3 - 4.7
TCU's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.3  #37
TCU's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.9  #30
TCU's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.9  #50

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 796.63
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Power Ratings Matchup
TCU: 8.04   UCF: 0.24

SP+ Ratings Matchup
TCU: 8.3   UCF: -1.2




UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: 0.24  #71
UCF's Offense Rating: 6.98  #88
UCF's Defense Rating: 15.30  #56
2026 Talent Rating: 616.00  #84
Blue Chip Ratio: 15  #32
UCF's 2026 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
UCF's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.2  #76
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.2  #98
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.0  #51

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 796.63
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75


TCU Scoring
Offense: 30.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.5
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.2

TCU's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
TCU 30
UCF 22

Projected Total Points: 51
UCF Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.6
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.7

UCF's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/14TCU34UCF35TCU -1.5UCF61.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
UCF111 Overs
TCU000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 01 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#32) TCU at (#71) UCF
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTCUUCF
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #32 #71
SP+SP+ #37 #76
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #32 #84
Blue ChipsBC% #31 #32
TCU on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
TCU OffUCF Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #48 #95
ExplosiveExp #46 #5
PPAPPA #36 #51
PowerPwr #45 #56
SP+SP+ #30 #51
Pts POPPO #34 #55
HavocHav #64 #54
TCU Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
TCU OffUCF Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #79 #116
Run ExplRExp #121 #28
PPAExp #109 #84
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #113 #101
Stuff RateStuff #114 #112
TackleTak - NR
TCU Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
TCU OffUCF Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #24 #54
Pass ExplPExl #35 #19
PPAExp #20 #28
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #71 #46
DB HavocDB #72 #62
UCF on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCatUCF OffTCU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #107 #53
ExplosiveExp #11 #92
PPAPPA #88 #59
PowerPwr #88 #30
SP+SP+ #98 #50
Pts POPPO #94 #54
HavocHav #106 #86
UCF Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
UCF OffTCU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #111 #23
Run ExplRExp #1 #26
PPAExp #68 #44
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #126 #58
Stuff RateStuff #128 #95
TackleTak - NR
UCF Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCatUCF OffTCU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #93 #86
Pass ExplPExl #102 #111
PPAExp #104 #92
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #107 #84
DB HavocDB #92 #75
Program Comparison
UCF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Remains Top G5

TCU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'26 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bright House Networks Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
UCF beat TCU in 2024 (35-34)

  
TCU's OC Gordon Sammis (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jaden Craig (Tr)20433162%28292578.5
John Hoyet Chance010%0000.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeremy Payne11062355.751
Jon Denman5017833.616
Jaden Craig (Tr)487831.626
Major Everhart5701.411
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Dwyer54730713.569
Jeremy Scott (Tr)24417417.474
Jeremy Payne2220729.444
Ed Small16186211.641

View TCU's Full Roster

TCU's DC Andy Avalos (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamel Johnson963003
Jacob Fields (Tr)903015
Kalen Carroll (Tr)492014
Vernon Glover411006
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Koron Hayward (Tr)194321
Kylin Jackson265321
Ansel Din-Mbuh247220
Zachary Chapman283240
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Vernon Glover411006
Jacob Fields (Tr)903015
Kalen Carroll (Tr)492014

UCF's OC Steve Cooper (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Alonza Barnett21637058%28062387.6
Keyone Jenkins (Tr)16426362%1742966.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Landen Chambers (Tr)2421273105.353
Alonza Barnett127589154.658
Duke Watson (Tr)4915813.215
Keyone Jenkins (Tr)5211452.242
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Joshua Derry7311011315.175
Duane Thomas Jr.53528010.041
Dylan Wade43523512.283
Jonathan Bibbs (Tr)26383314.768

View UCF's Full Roster

UCF's DC Alex Grinch (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lewis Carter954211
Jahleel Culbreath (Tr)7110330
Demari Henderson613101
Rashad Henry (Tr)513010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bruno Dall (Tr)448466
Jahleel Culbreath (Tr)7110330
Lewis Carter954211
R.J. Jackson243202
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden Bellamy270008
Bruno Dall (Tr)448466
Antoine Jackson391004