Navy at Tulsa - 2025 Matchup Preview
Navy logo Navy Midshipmen at Tulsa Golden HurricaneTulsa logo
Saturday, September 13th 2025 (8:00 PM EDT)
Navy -14 (52.5) (-575)  Open: 0.0
Navy 42 - Tulsa: 23  (American Athletic)

 
Midshipmen (3 - 0) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Brian Newberry (14 - 10)
Avg Score : 44 - 18 (42 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.1 - 3.9 (#40)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 6)
Our Line: Navy -10   (SP+ NAVY -19)
Projected Score: NAVY: 33 - TLSA: 23 (55)
NAVY Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
NAVY Travel: 1080 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Golden Hurricane (1 - 2) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach Tre Lamb (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 24 - 23 (29 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.6 - 8.4 (#122)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 6)
 
Navy's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Navy vs VMI-42.554.5W 52 - 7OY
Sat 9/6 Navy vs UAB-20.559.0W 38 - 24ON
Sat 9/13 Navy at Tulsa-14.052.5W 42 - 23OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Navy vs Rice-14.5
Sat 10/4 Navy vs Air Force-16.5
Sat 10/11 Navy at Temple-0.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Navy vs Florida Atlantic-12.5
Sat 11/1 Navy at North Texas+5.5
Sat 11/8 Navy at Notre Dame+19.5
Sat 11/15 Navy vs South Florida-0.5
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/27 Navy at Memphis+16
BYE WEEK
Sat 12/13 Navy vs Army-10.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Navy's Schedule
Tulsa's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Tulsa vs Abilene Christian-5.059.5W 35 - 7UY
Sat 9/6 Tulsa at New Mexico State-3.052.5L 14 - 21UN
Sat 9/13 Tulsa vs Navy+14.052.5L 23 - 42ON
Fri 9/19 Tulsa at Oklahoma State+13.555.5
Sat 9/27 Tulsa vs Tulane+13
Sat 10/4 Tulsa at Memphis+29
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/16 Tulsa at East Carolina+15.5
Sat 10/25 Tulsa vs Temple+7
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Tulsa at Florida Atlantic+5
Sat 11/15 Tulsa vs Oregon State+6
Sat 11/22 Tulsa at Army+7
Sat 11/29 Tulsa vs UAB-5.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 4, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 4, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Tulsa's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NAVY#11 (.46)60% (5)4462% (4)3.87 (7)37750% (32)1185.05 (31)#74 (.14)38% (61)1833% (23)43% (89)3.73 (73)5711.7
TLSA#99 (.11)41% (88)2437% (111)2.61 (103)18347% (49)2203.82 (79)#68 (.13)44% (102)23.343% (90)45% (103)3.83 (83)40.71.31.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NAVY#12 (.31)44% (51)46% (43)3.27 (32)23139% (101)1174.39 (26)#28 (.1)41% (61)46% (95)37% (24)3.48 (35)41.91.11.8
TLSA#124 (.06)34% (131)35% (128)2.88 (97)15133% (126)2393.54 (100)#127 (.31)42% (75)38% (23)46% (115)4.7 (130)511.91.3



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NAVY Offense3444259.8%5.051244953771186.883%17%62%50%9%.46
TLSA Defense323.324.544.3%3.831.7 - - - - - 56%43%43%45%14%.13
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NAVY Defense3182338.1%3.731.7 - - - - - 43%56%33%43%17%.14
TLSA Offense3242941.4%3.821.3244031832204.950%49%37%47%13%.11

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Navy334:1123.763%75%5.35711.75.33034.2
Tulsa328:5724.338%67%6.740.71.31.76.72.7026.9
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NAVY Offense383% (2)62% (4)55.7377.36.815 (1).45 (5)3.87 (7)86% (21)8% (47)1.03 (50)
TLSA Defense356% (111)43% (90) - - - - .04 (59)2.62 (51)68% (61)10% (72)0.94 (72)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NAVY Defense343% (25)33% (23) - - - - .05 (64)2.44 (37)70% (71)10% (71)1.3 (123)
TLSA Offense350% (71)37% (111)37.71834.95 (62).04 (97)2.61 (103)59% (108)6% (27)1.2 (30)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NAVY Offense317% (135)50% (32)710.711811.116.93 (90)2 (60).49 (23)1.7 (24)19% (3)37% (34).47 (45)2% (4)1.9 (83)
TLSA Defense343% (25)45% (103) - - - - - - 3 (28).22 (72)1.3 (28)31% (91)36% (114).42 (102)4% (110)2 (73)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NAVY Defense356% (113)43% (89) - - - - - - 3 (28).26 (86)1.3 (31)33% (70)31% (83).11 (31)7% (41)1.5 (18)
TLSA Offense349% (69)47% (49)23.73722069.34 (72)3 (92).2 (89)1.1 (132)32% (85)26% (105).14 (110)7% (104)2 (61)

Navy's Power Ratings
Navy's Power Rating: -4.53 #90
Navy's Offense Rating: 13.87 #62
Navy's Defense Rating: 18.40 #112
2025 Talent Rating: 116.00 #136
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Navy's 2025 Expected Record: 8.1 - 3.9
Navy's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.8 #49
Navy's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.2 #29
Navy's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.2 #57

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Navy: -4.53   Tulsa: -8.54

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Navy: 7.8   Tulsa: -11.1




Tulsa's Power Ratings
Tulsa's Power Rating: -8.54 #107
Tulsa's Offense Rating: 4.03 #110
Tulsa's Defense Rating: 15.01 #101
2025 Talent Rating: 628.00 #87
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Tulsa's 2025 Expected Record: 3.6 - 8.4
Tulsa's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.1 #108
Tulsa's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.7 #101
Tulsa's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.7 #109

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Navy Scoring
Offense: 44 PPG
Offense on Road: 42
Defense: 18 PPG
Defense on Road: 23

Navy's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 0 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Navy 33
Tulsa 23


Total Points: 55

Tulsa Scoring
Offense: 24 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 23.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.5

Tulsa's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/13Tulsa23Navy42NavyNavy -14Navy52.5Over
202210/08Navy53Tulsa21NavyTulsa -4.5Navy45.5Over
202110/29Tulsa17Navy20NavyTulsa -11Navy46.0Under
202012/05Navy6Tulsa19TulsaTulsa -12Tulsa46.0Under
201910/12Tulsa17Navy45NavyTulsa -1Navy52.0Over
201811/17Navy37Tulsa29NavyNavy -5Navy50.5Over
201709/30Tulsa21Navy31NavyNavy -7.5Navy70.5Under
201611/12Navy42Tulsa40NavyNavy -1Navy71.5Over
201511/21Tulsa21Navy44NavyNavy -9.5Navy64.5Over
200609/23Navy23Tulsa24Tulsa
200409/18Tulsa0Navy29Navy
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Tulsa216 Overs
Navy983 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 83 - 62 - 21 - 4
Road Teams8 - 36 - 34 - 12 - 2

(#90) Navy Info
Power Rating: -4.53 #90
Offense Rating: 13.87 #62
Defense Rating: 18.40 #112
Overall SP+ Rating: 7.8 #49
Offense SP+ Rating: 33.2 #29
Defense SP+ Rating: 25.2 #57
Talent Rating: 116.00 #136
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Expected Record: 8.1 - 3.9

Team Profile
Option Offense 83%, Pass: 17%
Great Offense Success Rate of 60%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 5.05 PPO
Great Run Success 62%
Good Pass Success 50%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 38%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.73 PPO
Good Run Def Success 33%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Navy has won 2 straight
Record on Road: 1 - 0 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

Navy Notes
(7/28) Fav'd in 1st 8 games, but final four are rough
(5/25) QB Horvath back, 30 TDs LY, Woodson #2 some exp
(5/25) FB Tecza back, WB Heidenreich/Chatman back
(5/25) IOL back, need new OT's. Check fall roster
(5/25) DL very light, overall D very light (usual for Navy)
(5/25) DBs return 1 CB, rest have <150 snaps. Unclear
(5/25) OC Cronic was a revelation LY, has Horvath back
(5/25) Newberry incredible job, near top AAC LY
(5/25) ND game cost them Rice game, check USF TY
(3/24) Def some exp, always play tough, but size/speed

Navy Highlights
Navy in Undefeated

Navy has Really Good Running Game (#1)
Navy offense is efficent (#5)
Navy has a top Offensive Line (#7)
Navy offense is good on 3rd downs
Navy does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#5)

Navy Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Navy has a good run defense (#23)
Navy defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

Navy Deficiencies
Navy offense is not Explosive (#102)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatTLSANAVY
OverallOver#43#27
OffenseOff#83#20
DefenseDef#5#44
Special TeamsST#65#35
PassingPass#81#72
RushingRush#40#1
Run BlockRBLK#99#81
Pass BlockPBLK#68#14
Route RunningWR Rt#83#37
TacklingTkl#31#87
Run DefenseR Def#5#52
Pass Rush DefPRush#2#18
Coverage DefCov#63#50

Rematch from Week 3
Navy 14.0 (52.5)
Navy won at Tulsa this year (42-23)

Previous Matchups
Navy beat Tulsa in 2022 (53-21)

Weather Forecast
Playing in at H. A. Chapman Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: NAVY | TLSA
Depth Chart: NAVY | TLSA
Rosters: NAVY | TLSA
(#107) Tulsa Info
Power Rating: -8.54 #107
Offense Rating: 4.03 #110
Defense Rating: 15.01 #101
Overall SP+ Rating: -11.1 #108
Offense SP+ Rating: 22.7 #101
Defense SP+ Rating: 33.7 #109
Talent Rating: 628.00 #87
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Expected Record: 3.6 - 8.4

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 41%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.82 PPO
Awful Run Success 37%
Avg Pass Success 47%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 44%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.83 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 43%
Poor Pass Def Success 45%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Tulsa has lost 1 straight
Tulsa has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 1 (1 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)

Tulsa Notes
(9/13) QB1 Kirk Francis out vs Navy (concussion)
(5/23) QB Francis, meh LY but was a Fr. Depth??
(5/23) RB rebuild. 4 portals, nothing special looking
(5/23) WR complete rebuild. 5 good looking portals
(5/23) OL bad LY, 1/5 back, 8 portal adds, some exp
(5/23) Def awful LY, return some, 12 meh portals
(5/23) New HC Lamb a fast riser, ETSU LY, G. Webb
(3/24) Roster looks rough, year 0 situation

Tulsa Highlights
Tulsa defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

Tulsa Deficiencies
Tulsa Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#117)
Tulsa run game is really bad (#111)
Tulsa has a bad defense (#102)


  
Navy's OC Drew Cronic
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Horvath182572%3283213.1
Braxton Woodson3743%26003.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Alex Tecza4527246.039
Blake Horvath4124536.035
Eli Heidenreich2420938.725
Braxton Woodson10194219.474
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eli Heidenreich10126112.635
Luke Hutchison370223.363
Cody Howard165065.065
Joshua Guerin135035.035

View Navy's Full Roster
Navy's DC P.J. Volker
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
MarcAnthony Parker204200
Landon Robinson194310
Luke Pirris192110
Griffen Willis141101
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Landon Robinson194310
MarcAnthony Parker204200
Julian Moutome122221
Kendall Whiteside21100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ira Oniha70003
Justin Ross101102
Phillip Hamilton80002

Tulsa's OC Ty Darlington
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Baylor Hayes (Tr)365467%324226.0
Kirk Francis335461%318215.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dominic Richardson (Tr)5329625.657
Ajay Allen (Tr)1811016.140
Braylin Presley149907.128
Baylor Hayes (Tr)122722.324
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Zion Booker (Tr)2321419.336
Micah Tease (Tr)7119017.027
Mekhi Miller (Tr)95806.48
Brody Foley (Tr)352217.322

View Tulsa's Full Roster
Tulsa's DC Mike Gray
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ray Coney (Tr)362011
Zach Williams200001
Lento Smith Jr. (Tr)151000
Tim Hardiman (Tr)140020
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
J'Dan Burnett (Tr)105401
Byron Turner Jr. (Tr)74410
Nahki Johnson (Tr)123100
Ray Coney (Tr)362011
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elijah Green130002
Ray Coney (Tr)362011
J'Dan Burnett (Tr)105401