Navy at Tulsa - 2025 Matchup Preview
Navy logo   Navy Midshipmen at Tulsa Golden Hurricane  Tulsa logo
Saturday, September 13th 2025 (8:00 PM EDT)
Navy -14 (52.5) (-575)  Open: 0.0
Navy 42 - Tulsa: 23  (American Athletic)

 
Midshipmen (11 - 2) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Brian Newberry (14 - 10)
Avg Score : 32 - 25 (26 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.2 - 2.8 (#20)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 6)
Our Line: Navy -6  (SP+ NAVY -16)
Projected Score: NAVY: 30 - TLSA: 24 (53)
NAVY Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
NAVY Travel: 1080 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Golden Hurricane (4 - 8) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Tre Lamb (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 23 - 29 (27 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 6)
 
Navy's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Navy vs VMI-42.554.5W 52 - 7OY
Sat 9/6 Navy vs UAB-20.559.0W 38 - 24ON
Sat 9/13 Navy at Tulsa-14.052.5W 42 - 23OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Navy vs Rice-14.045.5W 21 - 13UN
Sat 10/4 Navy vs Air Force-13.550.5W 34 - 31ON
Sat 10/11 Navy at Temple-10.052.5W 32 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Navy vs Florida Atlantic-14.563.5W 42 - 32ON
Sat 11/1 Navy at North Texas+6.568.5L 17 - 31UN
Sat 11/8 Navy at Notre Dame+30.554.5L 10 - 49ON
Sat 11/15 Navy vs South Florida+8.562.5W 41 - 38OY
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/27 Navy at Memphis+3.557.5W 28 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 12/13 Navy vs Army-6.038.0W 17 - 16UN
Fri 1/2 Navy vs Cincinnati-7.557.5W 35 - 13UY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Navy's Schedule
Tulsa's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Tulsa vs Abilene Christian-5.059.5W 35 - 7UY
Sat 9/6 Tulsa at New Mexico State-3.052.5L 14 - 21UN
Sat 9/13 Tulsa vs Navy+14.052.5L 23 - 42ON
Fri 9/19 Tulsa at Oklahoma State+10.554.5W 19 - 12UY
Sat 9/27 Tulsa vs Tulane+14.552.5L 14 - 31UN
Sat 10/4 Tulsa at Memphis+21.054.5L 7 - 45UN
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/16 Tulsa at East Carolina+16.554.5L 27 - 41OY
Sat 10/25 Tulsa vs Temple+4.552.5L 37 - 38OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Tulsa at Florida Atlantic+4.560.5L 21 - 40ON
Sat 11/15 Tulsa vs Oregon State-1.550.5W 31 - 14UY
Sat 11/22 Tulsa at Army+10.043.5W 26 - 25OY
Sat 11/29 Tulsa vs UAB-9.056.5L 24 - 31UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 4, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 4, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Tulsa's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NAVY#12 (.31)44% (51)31.546% (43)3.27 (32)23139% (101)1174.39 (26)#28 (.1)41% (61)2546% (95)37% (24)3.48 (35)41.91.11.8
TLSA#124 (.06)34% (131)23.235% (128)2.88 (97)15133% (126)2393.54 (100)#127 (.31)42% (75)28.938% (23)46% (115)4.7 (130)511.91.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NAVY0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TLSA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NAVY Offense1331.525.844.2%4.391.1163472311175.574%26%46%39%11%.31
TLSA Defense1228.927.242.2%4.71.3 - - - - - 48%52%38%46%15%.31
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NAVY Defense132530.241.2%3.481.8 - - - - - 51%48%46%37%14%.1
TLSA Offense1223.227.334.1%3.541.920390151239447%53%35%33%18%.06

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Navy1327:4716.239%64%4.841.91.11.84.21.8331.6
Tulsa1229:4420.437%32%5.9511.91.36.61.5328.9
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NAVY Offense1374% (3)46% (43)42.3230.75.535 (8).29 (10)3.27 (32)82% (15)8% (28)1.2 (7)
TLSA Defense1248% (40)38% (23) - - - - .11 (65)2.82 (40)69% (42)11% (42)1.2 (130)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NAVY Defense1351% (77)46% (95) - - - - .16 (89)3.27 (107)77% (89)9% (101)0.92 (39)
TLSA Offense1247% (93)35% (128)37.5151.4411 (116)-.03 (125)2.88 (97)74% (65)12% (110)0.9 (102)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NAVY Offense1326% (132)39% (101)7.112.8116.79.116.515 (98)6 (10).39 (15)2 (3)29% (26)27% (110).4 (37)3% (4)2.5 (2)
TLSA Defense1252% (97)46% (115) - - - - - - 9 (76).51 (131)1.9 (133)32% (64)33% (100).45 (118)4% (130)2.3 (132)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NAVY Defense1348% (57)37% (24) - - - - - - 17 (5).07 (8)1.5 (51)31% (85)25% (8).2 (30)5% (89)2.2 (112)
TLSA Offense1253% (43)33% (126)20.736.4238.66.611.523 (41)12 (85).16 (104)1.8 (21)34% (116)22% (131).17 (118)6% (77)2.2 (16)

Navy's Power Ratings
Navy's Power Rating: -6.95  #86
Navy's Offense Rating: 13.60  #64
Navy's Defense Rating: 20.55  #113
2025 Talent Rating: 116.00  #136
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Navy's 2025 Expected Record: 10.2 - 2.8
Navy's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.2  #46
Navy's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.6  #26
Navy's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9  #72

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Navy: -6.95   Tulsa: -6.28

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Navy: 6.2   Tulsa: -10.0




Tulsa's Power Ratings
Tulsa's Power Rating: -6.28  #91
Tulsa's Offense Rating: 6.85  #110
Tulsa's Defense Rating: 14.41  #74
2025 Talent Rating: 628.00  #87
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
Tulsa's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Tulsa's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.0  #104
Tulsa's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.7  #105
Tulsa's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.1  #107

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Navy Scoring
Offense: 31.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.8
Defense: 25 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.2

Navy's 2025 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Navy 30
Tulsa 24


Projected Total Points: 53
Tulsa Scoring
Offense: 23.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.3
Defense: 28.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.2

Tulsa's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/13Tulsa23Navy42Navy -14Navy52.5Over
202210/08Navy53Tulsa21Tulsa -4.5Navy45.5Over
202110/29Tulsa17Navy20Tulsa -11Navy46.0Under
202012/05Navy6Tulsa19Tulsa -12Tulsa46.0Under
201910/12Tulsa17Navy45Tulsa -1Navy52.0Over
201811/17Navy37Tulsa29Navy -5Navy50.5Over
201709/30Tulsa21Navy31Navy -7.5Navy70.5Under
201611/12Navy42Tulsa40Navy -1Navy71.5Over
201511/21Tulsa21Navy44Navy -9.5Navy64.5Over
200609/23Navy23Tulsa24
200409/18Tulsa0Navy29
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Tulsa216 Overs
Navy983 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 83 - 62 - 21 - 4
Road Teams8 - 36 - 34 - 12 - 2

(#86) NAVY at (#91) TLSA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNAVYTLSA
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #86 #91
SP+SP+ #46 #104
Perf GradeGrade #62 #51
OffenseOff #29 #94
DefenseDef #111 #15
Spec TeamsST #82 #52
TalentTal #136 #87
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #101
Navy Notes
(11/28) A gauntlet November ends w/ 2-2 record. Impressive
(11/28) 2 straight wins w/ impressive Def improvement.
(11/16) Run over by ND, Horvath didn't play. Def ugly
(11/16) Come back and kill USF? Mids are wild, AAC threat
(10/30) CB J Ross missed FAU game, very imp vs N Tex
(10/12) Keep eaking out close wins vs meh. But 6-0 w/ bad D
(9/24) Run Off good as ever, Horvath & Tecza good duo
(9/24) Def has been OK, good Success #'s but Expl issues
(7/28) Fav'd in 1st 8 games, but final four are rough
(5/25) QB Horvath back, 30 TDs LY, Woodson #2 some exp
(5/25) FB Tecza back, WB Heidenreich/Chatman back
(5/25) IOL back, need new OT's. Check fall roster
Navy Injury Report
Tulsa Notes
(11/22) Great fight & finish beating Oregon St & Army
(9/19) Physically dominating Ok St up front both sides
(9/19) Aggressive 4th down Off, QB2 Hayes can play
(9/19) Big program win over OK St. Lamb great job
(9/19) QB1 Kirk Francis out vs OK St (concussion)
(5/23) QB Francis, meh LY but was a Fr. Depth??
(5/23) RB rebuild. 4 portals, nothing special looking
(5/23) WR complete rebuild. 5 good looking portals
(5/23) OL bad LY, 1/5 back, 8 portal adds, some exp
(5/23) Def awful LY, return some, 12 meh portals
(5/23) New HC Lamb a fast riser, ETSU LY, G. Webb
(3/24) Roster looks rough, year 0 situation
Tulsa Injury Report
Navy on Offense
Option Offense 76%, Pass: 23%
CategoryCat
NAVY OffTLSA Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #29 #15
SuccessSuc #51 #75
ExplosiveExp #11 #133
PPAPPA #12 #127
PowerPwr #64 #74
SP+SP+ #26 #107
Pts POPPO #26 #130
HavocHav #6 #82
Navy Run Game
Option Offense 76%, Pass: 23%
CategoryCat
NAVY OffTLSA Def
Run GameRun #25 #11
Run SuccessRSuc #43 #23
Run ExplRExp #7 #130
PPAExp #10 #65
Run BlockR Blk #38 -
OL YdsOLY #32 #40
Stuff RateStuff #14 #23
TackleTak -  #6
Navy Pass Game
Option Offense 76%, Pass: 23%
CategoryCat
NAVY OffTLSA Def
Pass GamePass #34 #34
Pass SuccessPSuc #101 #115
Pass ExplPExl #3 #133
PPAExp #15 #131
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #115 #35
F7 HavocF7 #28 #42
DB HavocDB #4 #130
Tulsa on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatTLSA OffNAVY Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #94 #111
SuccessSuc #131 #61
ExplosiveExp #27 #28
PPAPPA #124 #28
PowerPwr #110 #113
SP+SP+ #105 #72
Pts POPPO #100 #35
HavocHav #105 #104
Tulsa Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
TLSA OffNAVY Def
Run GameRun #47 #107
Run SuccessRSuc #128 #95
Run ExplRExp #102 #39
PPAExp #125 #89
Run BlockR Blk #87 -
OL YdsOLY #97 #107
Stuff RateStuff #76 #122
TackleTak -  #133
Tulsa Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatTLSA OffNAVY Def
Pass GamePass #109 #120
Pass SuccessPSuc #126 #24
Pass ExplPExl #21 #51
PPAExp #104 #8
Pass Block/RushP Blk #94 #55
F7 HavocF7 #110 #101
DB HavocDB #77 #89
Program Comparison
TLSA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

NAVY 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in at H. A. Chapman Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 3
Navy 14.0 (52.5)
Navy won at Tulsa this year (42-23)

Previous Matchups
Navy beat Tulsa last year (42-23)

  
NAVY's OC Drew Cronic (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Horvath9715961%15801269.9
Braxton Woodson91947%110005.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Blake Horvath2241200165.459
Alex Tecza158902105.776
Eli Heidenreich7749936.525
Brandon Chatman5743137.636
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eli Heidenreich51941618.582
Brandon Chatman1715909.427
Luke Hutchison5134326.863
Cody Howard4128132.065

View Navy's Full Roster

NAVY's DC P.J. Volker (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
MarcAnthony Parker977240
Giuseppe Sessi811000
Luke Pirris787443
Coleman Cauley783030
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Landon Robinson648670
Julian Moutome428423
Adam Klenk335451
Luke Pirris787443
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ira Oniha241007
Justin Ross322134
Luke Pirris787443

TLSA's OC Ty Darlington (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Baylor Hayes (Tr)18631659%21591266.8
Kirk Francis538860%493345.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dominic Richardson (Tr)212106555.057
Ajay Allen (Tr)9749755.140
Braylin Presley3221516.728
Baylor Hayes (Tr)9518832.024
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Brody Foley (Tr)36521714.572
Zion Booker (Tr)4641829.140
Grayson Tempest22272112.451
Zion Steptoe21272013.042

View Tulsa's Full Roster

TLSA's DC Mike Gray (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ray Coney (Tr)1287242
Lento Smith Jr. (Tr)792004
Zach Williams731007
William Alexander661010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
J'Dan Burnett (Tr)2810711
Byron Turner Jr. (Tr)147511
Ty Cooper (Tr)257311
Nahki Johnson (Tr)277300
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zach Williams731007
Elijah Green592007
Lento Smith Jr. (Tr)792004