Navy at Tulsa - 2025 Matchup Preview

Navy Midshipmen at Tulsa Golden Hurricane

Saturday, September 13th 2025 (8:00 PM EDT)
Navy -14 (52.5) (-575) Open: 0.0
Navy 42 - Tulsa: 23 (American Athletic)

Midshipmen (7 - 1) (2 - 6 - 0)
Coach Brian Newberry (14 - 10)
Avg Score : 35 - 24 (30 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 3.7 (#34)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 6)

Our Line: Navy -8 (SP+ NAVY -18)
Projected Score: NAVY: 31 - TLSA: 23 (55)
NAVY Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
NAVY Travel: 1080 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Golden Hurricane (2 - 6) (4 - 4 - 0)
Coach Tre Lamb (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 30 (27 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#112)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 6)

Matchup
Schedules
NAVY Players
TLSA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Navy's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Navy vs VMI	-42.5	54.5	W 52 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/6	Navy vs UAB	-20.5	59.0	W 38 - 24	O	N
Sat 9/13	Navy at Tulsa	-14.0	52.5	W 42 - 23	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	Navy vs Rice	-14.0	45.5	W 21 - 13	U	N
Sat 10/4	Navy vs Air Force	-13.5	50.5	W 34 - 31	O	N
Sat 10/11	Navy at Temple	-10.0	52.5	W 32 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25	Navy vs Florida Atlantic	-14.5	63.5	W 42 - 32	O	N
Sat 11/1	Navy at North Texas	+6.5	68.5	L 17 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/8	Navy at Notre Dame	+30.5	54.5
Sat 11/15	Navy vs South Florida	+9
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/27	Navy at Memphis	+12
	BYE WEEK
Sat 12/13	Navy vs Army	-8

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Navy's Schedule

Tulsa's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Tulsa vs Abilene Christian	-5.0	59.5	W 35 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Tulsa at New Mexico State	-3.0	52.5	L 14 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/13	Tulsa vs Navy	+14.0	52.5	L 23 - 42	O	N
Fri 9/19	Tulsa at Oklahoma State	+10.5	54.5	W 19 - 12	U	Y
Sat 9/27	Tulsa vs Tulane	+14.5	52.5	L 14 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/4	Tulsa at Memphis	+21.0	54.5	L 7 - 45	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/16	Tulsa at East Carolina	+16.5	54.5	L 27 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/25	Tulsa vs Temple	+4.5	52.5	L 37 - 38	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8	Tulsa at Florida Atlantic	+4.5	60.5
Sat 11/15	Tulsa vs Oregon State	-0.5
Sat 11/22	Tulsa at Army	+7.5
Sat 11/29	Tulsa vs UAB	-8.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 4, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 4, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Tulsa's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NAVY	#6 (.36)	52% (5)	34.8	55% (3)	3.78 (1)	318	45% (41)	149	4.38 (34)	#108 (.21)	43% (93)	24	43% (77)	44% (101)	3.95 (94)	53.1	1.1	1.3
TLSA	#113 (.08)	39% (116)	22	38% (117)	2.51 (104)	151	40% (94)	231	3.47 (99)	#53 (.12)	45% (108)	29.6	45% (105)	44% (98)	3.94 (93)	37.6	1.5	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NAVY	#12 (.31)	44% (51)		46% (43)	3.27 (32)	231	39% (101)	117	4.39 (26)	#28 (.1)	41% (61)		46% (95)	37% (24)	3.48 (35)	41.9	1.1	1.8
TLSA	#124 (.06)	34% (131)		35% (128)	2.88 (97)	151	33% (126)	239	3.54 (100)	#127 (.31)	42% (75)		38% (23)	46% (115)	4.7 (130)	51	1.9	1.3

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NAVY Offense	8	34.8	30.3	52.4%	4.38	1.1	21	467	318	149	6.7	75%	24%	55%	45%	9%	.36
TLSA Defense	8	29.6	29.5	44.7%	3.94	1	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	45%	44%	13%	.12

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NAVY Defense	8	24	28.3	43.3%	3.95	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	43%	44%	14%	.21
TLSA Offense	8	22	27.3	38.7%	3.47	1.5	21	381	151	231	4	49%	50%	38%	40%	18%	.08

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Navy	8	31:57	21.4	54%	67%	6.3	53.1	1.1	1.3	5.3	2.4	0	31.4
Tulsa	8	28:19	21.4	36%	62%	5	37.6	1.5	1	5.4	2.1	0	25.3

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NAVY Offense	8	75% (2)	55% (3)	47.6	318	6.7	30 (4)	.36 (2)	3.78 (1)	77% (35)	7% (10)	1.08 (26)
TLSA Defense	8	54% (107)	45% (105)	-	-	-	-	.05 (45)	2.03 (8)	65% (35)	9% (99)	0.91 (47)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NAVY Defense	8	51% (80)	43% (77)	-	-	-	-	.13 (98)	2.77 (72)	76% (102)	9% (85)	1 (87)
TLSA Offense	8	49% (80)	38% (117)	37.9	150.6	4	9 (107)	(120)	2.51 (104)	54% (134)	12% (116)	1.05 (31)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NAVY Offense	8	24% (135)	45% (41)	9	14.4	149	10.4	16.6	7 (106)	5 (20)	.47 (11)	1.9 (4)	21% (2)	35% (36)	.61 (5)	2% (2)	2.3 (13)
TLSA Defense	8	46% (34)	44% (98)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (55)	.21 (59)	1.4 (25)	29% (117)	31% (91)	.26 (62)	4% (121)	1.9 (39)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NAVY Defense	8	48% (53)	44% (101)	-	-	-	-	-	-	4 (100)	.34 (109)	1.5 (62)	31% (84)	33% (110)	.25 (58)	5% (106)	1.7 (15)
TLSA Offense	8	50% (58)	40% (94)	21.8	36.1	230.8	6.4	10.6	12 (86)	7 (108)	.14 (110)	1.4 (122)	32% (88)	26% (112)	.16 (111)	7% (96)	1.8 (118)

Navy's Power Ratings
Navy's Power Rating: -1.15 #76
Navy's Offense Rating: 14.95 #41
Navy's Defense Rating: 16.10 #115
2025 Talent Rating: 116.00 #136
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Navy's 2025 Expected Record: 8.3 - 3.7
Navy's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.2 #50
Navy's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.0 #22
Navy's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.8 #84

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Navy: -1.15 Tulsa: -5.68

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Navy: 6.2 Tulsa: -11.6

Tulsa's Power Ratings
Tulsa's Power Rating: -5.68 #88
Tulsa's Offense Rating: 2.18 #113
Tulsa's Defense Rating: 6.94 #73
2025 Talent Rating: 628.00 #87
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Tulsa's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Tulsa's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.6 #112
Tulsa's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #109
Tulsa's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.7 #110

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Navy Scoring
Offense: 34.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.3
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.3

Navy's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Navy 31
Tulsa 23

Total Points: 55

Based on Last 4 Games
Navy 37
Tulsa 21

Total Points: 58

Based on Entire Season
Navy 31
Tulsa 25

Total Points: 56

Tulsa Scoring
Offense: 22 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.3
Defense: 29.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 29.5

Tulsa's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 6
Record vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/13	Tulsa	23	Navy	42	Navy -14	Navy	52.5	Over
2022	10/08	Navy	53	Tulsa	21	Tulsa -4.5	Navy	45.5	Over
2021	10/29	Tulsa	17	Navy	20	Tulsa -11	Navy	46.0	Under
2020	12/05	Navy	6	Tulsa	19	Tulsa -12	Tulsa	46.0	Under
2019	10/12	Tulsa	17	Navy	45	Tulsa -1	Navy	52.0	Over
2018	11/17	Navy	37	Tulsa	29	Navy -5	Navy	50.5	Over
2017	09/30	Tulsa	21	Navy	31	Navy -7.5	Navy	70.5	Under
2016	11/12	Navy	42	Tulsa	40	Navy -1	Navy	71.5	Over
2015	11/21	Tulsa	21	Navy	44	Navy -9.5	Navy	64.5	Over
2006	09/23	Navy	23	Tulsa	24
2004	09/18	Tulsa	0	Navy	29

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Tulsa	2	1	6 Overs
Navy	9	8	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 8	3 - 6	2 - 2	1 - 4
Road Teams	8 - 3	6 - 3	4 - 1	2 - 2

(#76) NAVY at (#88) TLSA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NAVY	TLSA
Power RatePwr	#76	#88
SP+SP+	#50	#112
Perf GradeGrade	#29	#68
OffenseOff	#8	#118
DefenseDef	#94	#13
Spec TeamsST	#35	#40
TalentTal	#136	#87
Blue ChipsBC%	#101	#101

Navy Notes(10/30) CB J Ross missed FAU game, very imp vs N Tex
(10/12) Keep eaking out close wins vs meh. But 6-0 w/ bad D
(9/24) Run Off good as ever, Horvath & Tecza good duo
(9/24) Def has been OK, good Success #'s but Expl issues
(7/28) Fav'd in 1st 8 games, but final four are rough
(5/25) QB Horvath back, 30 TDs LY, Woodson #2 some exp
(5/25) FB Tecza back, WB Heidenreich/Chatman back
(5/25) IOL back, need new OT's. Check fall roster
(5/25) DL very light, overall D very light (usual for Navy)
(5/25) DBs return 1 CB, rest have <150 snaps. Unclear
(5/25) OC Cronic was a revelation LY, has Horvath back
(5/25) Newberry incredible job, near top AAC LY
Navy Injury Report

Tulsa Notes(9/19) Physically dominating Ok St up front both sides
(9/19) Aggressive 4th down Off, QB2 Hayes can play
(9/19) Big program win over OK St. Lamb great job
(9/19) QB1 Kirk Francis out vs OK St (concussion)
(5/23) QB Francis, meh LY but was a Fr. Depth??
(5/23) RB rebuild. 4 portals, nothing special looking
(5/23) WR complete rebuild. 5 good looking portals
(5/23) OL bad LY, 1/5 back, 8 portal adds, some exp
(5/23) Def awful LY, return some, 12 meh portals
(5/23) New HC Lamb a fast riser, ETSU LY, G. Webb
(3/24) Roster looks rough, year 0 situation
Tulsa Injury Report

Navy on Offense

Option Offense 75%, Pass: 24%
CategoryCat	NAVY Off	TLSA Def
Perf GradePerf	#8	#13
SuccessSuc	#5	#108
ExplosiveExp	#60	#19
PPAPPA	#6	#53
PowerPwr	#41	#73
SP+SP+	#22	#110
Pts POPPO	#34	#93
HavocHav	#1	#122

Navy Run Game

Option Offense 75%, Pass: 24%
CategoryCat	NAVY Off	TLSA Def
Run GameRun	#2	#20
Run SuccessRSuc	#3	#105
Run ExplRExp	#26	#47
PPAExp	#2	#45
Run BlockR Blk	#33	-
OL YdsOLY	#1	#8
Stuff RateStuff	#1	#88
TackleTak	-	#14

Navy Pass Game

Option Offense 75%, Pass: 24%
CategoryCat	NAVY Off	TLSA Def
Pass GamePass	#24	#31
Pass SuccessPSuc	#41	#98
Pass ExplPExl	#4	#25
PPAExp	#11	#59
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#85	#25
F7 HavocF7	#10	#99
DB HavocDB	#2	#121

Tulsa on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	TLSA Off	NAVY Def
Perf GradePerf	#118	#94
SuccessSuc	#116	#93
ExplosiveExp	#72	#68
PPAPPA	#113	#108
PowerPwr	#113	#115
SP+SP+	#109	#84
Pts POPPO	#99	#94
HavocHav	#119	#107

Tulsa Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	TLSA Off	NAVY Def
Run GameRun	#83	#96
Run SuccessRSuc	#117	#77
Run ExplRExp	#31	#87
PPAExp	#120	#98
Run BlockR Blk	#114	-
OL YdsOLY	#104	#72
Stuff RateStuff	#134	#56
TackleTak	-	#125

Tulsa Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	TLSA Off	NAVY Def
Pass GamePass	#121	#114
Pass SuccessPSuc	#94	#101
Pass ExplPExl	#122	#62
PPAExp	#110	#109
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#106	#35
F7 HavocF7	#116	#85
DB HavocDB	#96	#106

Program Comparison
TLSA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

NAVY 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in at H. A. Chapman Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 87° - Wind: 5 mph

Rematch from Week 3
Navy 14.0 (52.5)
Navy won at Tulsa this year (42-23)

Previous Matchups
Navy beat Tulsa in 2022 (53-21)

NAVY's OC Drew Cronic (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Blake Horvath	68	106	64%	1143	7	5	10.8
Braxton Woodson	4	8	50%	49	0	0	6.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Blake Horvath	138	926	13	6.7	59
Alex Tecza	90	523	6	5.8	65
Brandon Chatman	41	360	2	8.8	36
Eli Heidenreich	49	342	3	7.0	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Eli Heidenreich	31	575	4	18.5	80
Cody Howard	4	128	1	32.0	65
Brandon Chatman	13	124	0	9.5	26
Luke Hutchison	4	104	2	26.0	63

View Navy's Full Roster

NAVY's DC P.J. Volker (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
MarcAnthony Parker	68	6	2	2	0
Luke Pirris	59	4	2	3	2
Giuseppe Sessi	50	1	0	0	0
Landon Robinson	42	7	5	5	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Landon Robinson	42	7	5	5	0
Adam Klenk	20	4	3	5	1
Griffen Willis	35	5	3	2	1
Julian Moutome	23	4	3	2	2

Pass D	Tack	PD
Ira Oniha	22	7
Phillip Hamilton	33	2
Bryce Allen	12	2

TLSA's OC Ty Darlington (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Baylor Hayes (Tr)	119	198	60%	1335	9	3	6.7
Kirk Francis	53	88	60%	493	3	4	5.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dominic Richardson (Tr)	148	675	3	4.6	57
Ajay Allen (Tr)	34	163	1	4.8	40
Braylin Presley	26	158	0	6.1	28
Baylor Hayes (Tr)	58	82	2	1.4	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Zion Booker (Tr)	46	418	2	9.1	40
Brody Foley (Tr)	23	380	6	16.5	72
Micah Tease (Tr)	11	191	1	17.4	34
Zion Steptoe	13	137	0	10.5	19

View Tulsa's Full Roster

TLSA's DC Mike Gray (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ray Coney (Tr)	89	4	1	3	2
Zach Williams	57	1	0	0	4
Lento Smith Jr. (Tr)	55	2	0	0	4
William Alexander	47	1	0	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
J'Dan Burnett (Tr)	20	9	7	1	1
Byron Turner Jr. (Tr)	12	7	5	1	1
Ty Cooper (Tr)	17	6	2	1	1
Joe Hjelle	28	3	2	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Elijah Green	42	1	6
Lento Smith Jr. (Tr)	55	2	4
Zach Williams	57	1	4