Navy at North Texas - 2025 Matchup Preview
Navy logo Navy Midshipmen at North Texas Mean GreenNorth Texas logo
Saturday, November 1st 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
North Texas -6.5 (68.5) (-245)  Open: -4.5
North Texas 31 - Navy: 17  (American Athletic)

 
Midshipmen (7 - 1) (2 - 6 - 0)
Coach Brian Newberry (14 - 10)
Avg Score : 35 - 24 (30 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 3.7 (#34)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
UNT is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: North Texas -5  (SP+ UNT -6)

Projected Score: NAVY: 31 - UNT: 36 (67)
UNT Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
NAVY Travel: 1217 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Mean Green (8 - 1) (7 - 2 - 0)
Coach Eric Morris (11 - 13)
Avg Score : 44 - 24 (45 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.7 - 1.3 (#5)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
 
Navy's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Navy vs VMI-42.554.5W 52 - 7OY
Sat 9/6 Navy vs UAB-20.559.0W 38 - 24ON
Sat 9/13 Navy at Tulsa-14.052.5W 42 - 23OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Navy vs Rice-14.045.5W 21 - 13UN
Sat 10/4 Navy vs Air Force-13.550.5W 34 - 31ON
Sat 10/11 Navy at Temple-10.052.5W 32 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Navy vs Florida Atlantic-14.563.5W 42 - 32ON
Sat 11/1 Navy at North Texas+6.568.5L 17 - 31UN
Sat 11/8 Navy at Notre Dame+30.554.5
Sat 11/15 Navy vs South Florida+9
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/27 Navy at Memphis+12
BYE WEEK
Sat 12/13 Navy vs Army-8

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 5
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Navy's Schedule
North Texas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 North Texas vs Lamar-27.563.5W 51 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 North Texas at Western Michigan-12.056.0W 33 - 30ON
Sat 9/13 North Texas vs Washington State-6.557.5W 59 - 10OY
Sat 9/20 North Texas at Army-2.550.5W 45 - 38OY
Sat 9/27 North Texas vs South Alabama-13.563.5W 36 - 22UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/10 North Texas vs South Florida-2.568.5L 36 - 63ON
Sat 10/18 North Texas vs UTSA-4.064.5W 55 - 17OY
Fri 10/24 North Texas at Charlotte-25.560.5W 54 - 20OY
Sat 11/1 North Texas vs Navy-6.568.5W 31 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 North Texas at UAB-16.5
Sat 11/22 North Texas at Rice-12.5
Sat 11/29 North Texas vs Temple-16

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 3, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Texas's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NAVY#6 (.36)52% (5)34.855% (3)3.78 (1)31845% (41)1494.38 (34)#108 (.21)43% (93)2443% (77)44% (101)3.95 (94)53.11.11.3
UNT#18 (.3)49% (14)44.451% (9)3.45 (9)17948% (19)3074.86 (9)#70 (.14)43% (86)24.146% (118)38% (31)3.82 (82)46.31.12.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NAVY#12 (.31)44% (51)46% (43)3.27 (32)23139% (101)1174.39 (26)#28 (.1)41% (61)46% (95)37% (24)3.48 (35)41.91.11.8
UNT#45 (.23)42% (70)40% (109)2.75 (111)15344% (39)2983.91 (69)#98 (.22)44% (98)47% (106)42% (79)4.03 (93)52.51.51.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NAVY Offense834.830.352.4%4.381.1214673181496.775%24%55%45%9%.36
UNT Defense924.121.543%3.822.2 - - - - - 62%37%46%38%15%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NAVY Defense82428.343.3%3.951.3 - - - - - 51%48%43%44%14%.21
UNT Offense944.444.749%4.861.126486179307546%53%51%48%12%.3

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Navy831:5721.454%67%6.353.11.11.35.32.4031.4
North Texas929:1925.746%63%5.746.31.12.25.72.2035.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NAVY Offense875% (2)55% (3)47.63186.730 (4).36 (2)3.78 (1)77% (35)7% (10)1.08 (26)
UNT Defense962% (136)46% (118) - - - - .15 (105)3.19 (121)73% (75)11% (43)0.99 (80)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NAVY Defense851% (80)43% (77) - - - - .13 (98)2.77 (72)76% (102)9% (85)1 (87)
UNT Offense946% (101)51% (9)36179530 (1).25 (14)3.45 (9)79% (22)8% (22)1.05 (34)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NAVY Offense824% (135)45% (41)914.414910.416.67 (106)5 (20).47 (11)1.9 (4)21% (2)35% (36).61 (5)2% (2)2.3 (13)
UNT Defense937% (1)38% (31) - - - - - - 9 (31).17 (45)1.5 (65)29% (116)29% (56).22 (45)4% (127)1.7 (14)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NAVY Defense848% (53)44% (101) - - - - - - 4 (100).34 (109)1.5 (62)31% (84)33% (110).25 (58)5% (106)1.7 (15)
UNT Offense953% (36)48% (19)24.435.8307.28.612.622 (8)4 (20).37 (31)1.5 (95)27% (13)36% (27).44 (30)4% (20)2 (56)

Navy's Power Ratings
Navy's Power Rating: -1.15  #76
Navy's Offense Rating: 14.95  #41
Navy's Defense Rating: 16.10  #115
2025 Talent Rating: 116.00  #136
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Navy's 2025 Expected Record: 8.3 - 3.7
Navy's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.2  #50
Navy's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.0  #22
Navy's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.8  #84

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Navy: -1.15   North Texas: 7.43

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Navy: 6.2   North Texas: 12.1




North Texas's Power Ratings
North Texas's Power Rating: 7.43  #79
North Texas's Offense Rating: 11.81  #53
North Texas's Defense Rating: 14.05  #109
2025 Talent Rating: 618.00  #91
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
North Texas's 2025 Expected Record: 10.7 - 1.3
North Texas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.1  #30
North Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.4  #3
North Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.3  #79

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Navy Scoring
Offense: 34.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.3
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.3

Navy's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
North Texas 36
Navy 31


Total Points: 67

Based on Last 4 Games
North Texas 36
Navy 32

Total Points: 69

Based on Entire Season
North Texas 35
Navy 28

Total Points: 63
North Texas Scoring
Offense: 44.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 44.7
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.5

North Texas's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 1
Record vs Spread: 7 - 2 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/01North Texas31Navy17North Texas -6.5North Texas68.5Under
202310/07Navy27North Texas24Navy -6.5North Texas60.5Under
200711/10North Texas62Navy74
TeamWinsCoversO/U
North Texas120 Overs
Navy202 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 11 - 11 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 21 - 10 - 01 - 1

(#76) NAVY at (#79) UNT
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNAVYUNT
Power RatePwr #76 #79
SP+SP+ #50 #30
Perf GradeGrade #29 #11
OffenseOff #8 #6
DefenseDef #94 #25
Spec TeamsST #35 #33
TalentTal #136 #91
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #101
Navy Notes
(10/30) CB J Ross missed FAU game, very imp vs N Tex
(10/12) Keep eaking out close wins vs meh. But 6-0 w/ bad D
(9/24) Run Off good as ever, Horvath & Tecza good duo
(9/24) Def has been OK, good Success #'s but Expl issues
(7/28) Fav'd in 1st 8 games, but final four are rough
(5/25) QB Horvath back, 30 TDs LY, Woodson #2 some exp
(5/25) FB Tecza back, WB Heidenreich/Chatman back
(5/25) IOL back, need new OT's. Check fall roster
(5/25) DL very light, overall D very light (usual for Navy)
(5/25) DBs return 1 CB, rest have <150 snaps. Unclear
(5/25) OC Cronic was a revelation LY, has Horvath back
(5/25) Newberry incredible job, near top AAC LY
Navy Injury Report
North Texas Notes
(10/24) 37-0 closing run vs Char, Mestemaker 600+ yds
(10/10) UNT has allowed 200+ yds rushing 3 straight games
(10/9) NT Fatafehi Vailea II out for season, big loss
(10/9) DBs much better than F7, DL issues esp vs run
(10/8) Best Tackling grade via PFF into USF game
(9/19) Off on a tear, rFr QB Mestemaker brilliant start
(9/15) Mestemaker, Off has been great, WR deep
(8/18) QB1 rFr. Drew Mestemaker has won the job
(7/23) Sleeper, took SHSU Def best in the portal
(7/23) QB Poffenbarger big time @ FCS Albany '23-'24
(3/23) RB rebuild, McGill/Sibley? 3 Portal adds
(3/23) WR rebuild, have 5 exp options. Evans (SHSU)
North Texas Injury Report
Navy on Offense
Option Offense 75%, Pass: 24%
CategoryCat
NAVY OffUNT Def
Perf GradePerf #8 #25
SuccessSuc #5 #86
ExplosiveExp #60 #26
PPAPPA #6 #70
PowerPwr #41 #109
SP+SP+ #22 #79
Pts POPPO #34 #82
HavocHav #1 #91
Navy Run Game
Option Offense 75%, Pass: 24%
CategoryCat
NAVY OffUNT Def
Run GameRun #2 #52
Run SuccessRSuc #3 #118
Run ExplRExp #26 #80
PPAExp #2 #105
Run BlockR Blk #33 -
OL YdsOLY #1 #121
Stuff RateStuff #1 #125
TackleTak -  #1
Navy Pass Game
Option Offense 75%, Pass: 24%
CategoryCat
NAVY OffUNT Def
Pass GamePass #24 #17
Pass SuccessPSuc #41 #31
Pass ExplPExl #4 #65
PPAExp #11 #45
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #85 #72
F7 HavocF7 #10 #43
DB HavocDB #2 #127
North Texas on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 44%
CategoryCatUNT OffNAVY Def
Perf GradePerf #6 #94
SuccessSuc #14 #93
ExplosiveExp #57 #68
PPAPPA #18 #108
PowerPwr #53 #115
SP+SP+ #3 #84
Pts POPPO #9 #94
HavocHav #11 #107
North Texas Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat
UNT OffNAVY Def
Run GameRun #5 #96
Run SuccessRSuc #9 #77
Run ExplRExp #34 #87
PPAExp #14 #98
Run BlockR Blk #18 -
OL YdsOLY #9 #72
Stuff RateStuff #26 #56
TackleTak -  #125
North Texas Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 44%
CategoryCatUNT OffNAVY Def
Pass GamePass #7 #114
Pass SuccessPSuc #19 #101
Pass ExplPExl #95 #62
PPAExp #31 #109
Pass Block/RushP Blk #18 #35
F7 HavocF7 #22 #85
DB HavocDB #20 #106
Program Comparison
UNT 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

NAVY 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Apogee Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 58°
Rematch from Week 10
North Texas -6.5 (68.5)
North Texas won vs Navy this year (31-17)

Previous Matchups
Navy beat North Texas in 2023 (27-24)

  
NAVY's OC Drew Cronic (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Horvath6810664%11437510.8
Braxton Woodson4850%49006.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Blake Horvath138926136.759
Alex Tecza9052365.865
Brandon Chatman4136028.836
Eli Heidenreich4934237.025
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eli Heidenreich31575418.580
Cody Howard4128132.065
Brandon Chatman1312409.526
Luke Hutchison4104226.063

View Navy's Full Roster

NAVY's DC P.J. Volker (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
MarcAnthony Parker686220
Luke Pirris594232
Giuseppe Sessi501000
Landon Robinson427550
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Landon Robinson427550
Adam Klenk204351
Griffen Willis355321
Julian Moutome234322
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ira Oniha220007
Phillip Hamilton330002
Bryce Allen120002

UNT's OC Jordan Davis (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Mestemaker21431269%26922148.6
Reese Poffenbarger (Tr)5771%36005.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Caleb Hawkins121734116.137
Makenzie McGill7538955.227
Kiefer Sibley3421856.445
Jayden Becks (Tr)218724.116
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Wyatt Young40638716.070
Cameron Dorner34519415.341
Landon Sides23339114.760
Miles Coleman31322110.454

View North Texas's Full Roster

UNT's DC Skyler Cassity (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trey Fields (Tr)675132
Ethan Wesloski658240
Shane Whitter582061
Patrick Smith-Young (Tr)440002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ethan Day (Tr)316440
Keviyan Huddleston (Tr)167400
Joshua Pierce (Tr)92200
Zhaiylen Scott142230
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
David Fisher (Tr)261015
Trey Fields (Tr)675132
Patrick Smith-Young (Tr)440002