Navy at North Texas - 2025 Matchup Preview
Navy logo Navy Midshipmen at North Texas Mean GreenNorth Texas logo
Saturday, November 1st 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
North Texas -6.5 (68.5) (-245)  Open: -4.5
North Texas 31 - Navy: 17  (American Athletic)

 
Midshipmen (10 - 2) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Brian Newberry (14 - 10)
Avg Score : 31 - 26 (26 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.2 - 2.8 (#20)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
UNT is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: North Texas -13  (SP+ UNT -13)

Projected Score: NAVY: 27 - UNT: 40 (67)
UNT Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
NAVY Travel: 1217 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Mean Green (12 - 2) (10 - 4 - 0)
Coach Eric Morris (11 - 13)
Avg Score : 45 - 27 (46 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11.6 - 2.4 (#9)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
 
Navy's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Navy vs VMI-42.554.5W 52 - 7OY
Sat 9/6 Navy vs UAB-20.559.0W 38 - 24ON
Sat 9/13 Navy at Tulsa-14.052.5W 42 - 23OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Navy vs Rice-14.045.5W 21 - 13UN
Sat 10/4 Navy vs Air Force-13.550.5W 34 - 31ON
Sat 10/11 Navy at Temple-10.052.5W 32 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Navy vs Florida Atlantic-14.563.5W 42 - 32ON
Sat 11/1 Navy at North Texas+6.568.5L 17 - 31UN
Sat 11/8 Navy at Notre Dame+30.554.5L 10 - 49ON
Sat 11/15 Navy vs South Florida+8.562.5W 41 - 38OY
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/27 Navy at Memphis+3.557.5W 28 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 12/13 Navy vs Army-6.038.0W 17 - 16UN
Fri 1/2 Navy vs Cincinnati-4.054.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 5
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Navy's Schedule
North Texas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 North Texas vs Lamar-27.563.5W 51 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 North Texas at Western Michigan-12.056.0W 33 - 30ON
Sat 9/13 North Texas vs Washington State-6.557.5W 59 - 10OY
Sat 9/20 North Texas at Army-2.550.5W 45 - 38OY
Sat 9/27 North Texas vs South Alabama-13.563.5W 36 - 22UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/10 North Texas vs South Florida-2.568.5L 36 - 63ON
Sat 10/18 North Texas vs UTSA-4.064.5W 55 - 17OY
Fri 10/24 North Texas at Charlotte-25.560.5W 54 - 20OY
Sat 11/1 North Texas vs Navy-6.568.5W 31 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 North Texas at UAB-17.569.5W 53 - 24OY
Sat 11/22 North Texas at Rice-18.557.0W 56 - 24OY
Fri 11/28 North Texas vs Temple-20.065.5W 52 - 25OY
Fri 12/5 North Texas at Tulane-1.566.5L 21 - 34UN
Sat 12/27 North Texas vs San Diego State-7.555.5W 49 - 47ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 3, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Texas's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NAVY#16 (.31)49% (11)31.251% (5)3.44 (5)29043% (57)1324.13 (36)#115 (.23)42% (71)2640% (45)45% (111)4.24 (121)51.51.11.1
UNT#3 (.36)51% (4)45.153% (3)3.58 (2)16851% (8)2994.98 (3)#78 (.18)44% (93)26.548% (125)37% (29)3.93 (97)39.11.21.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NAVY#12 (.31)44% (51)46% (43)3.27 (32)23139% (101)1174.39 (26)#28 (.1)41% (61)46% (95)37% (24)3.48 (35)41.91.11.8
UNT#45 (.23)42% (70)40% (109)2.75 (111)15344% (39)2983.91 (69)#98 (.22)44% (98)47% (106)42% (79)4.03 (93)52.51.51.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NAVY Offense1231.225.848.8%4.131.1204222901325.975%23%51%43%10%.31
UNT Defense1426.52243.6%3.931.8 - - - - - 60%38%48%37%14%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NAVY Defense122630.241.9%4.241.1 - - - - - 51%47%40%45%13%.23
UNT Offense1445.145.751.2%4.981.2244671682995.147%51%53%51%12%.36

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Navy1232:3120.351%67%651.51.11.14.52.2031.4
North Texas1426:0323.546%69%4.939.11.21.851.6033.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NAVY Offense1275% (3)51% (5)49.3289.85.939 (4).3 (7)3.44 (5)80% (17)7% (18)1.09 (24)
UNT Defense1460% (134)48% (125) - - - - .18 (110)3.23 (120)78% (114)9% (78)0.98 (82)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NAVY Defense1251% (84)40% (45) - - - - .12 (87)2.9 (74)76% (102)8% (111)1.02 (95)
UNT Offense1447% (87)53% (3)33.1167.95.145 (1).33 (4)3.58 (2)73% (67)7% (12)1.11 (13)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NAVY Offense1223% (134)43% (57)8.113.9131.89.516.310 (106)6 (20).45 (13)2 (3)24% (2)33% (40).52 (9)2% (2)2.4 (2)
UNT Defense1438% (2)37% (29) - - - - - - 13 (31).21 (56)1.7 (113)29% (116)29% (62).27 (62)4% (127)1.9 (30)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NAVY Defense1247% (49)45% (111) - - - - - - 6 (100).41 (127)1.6 (104)31% (88)31% (81).31 (73)4% (127)2 (52)
UNT Offense1451% (47)51% (8)21.330.6299.49.814.132 (8)7 (20).43 (17)1.6 (63)26% (12)39% (8).44 (21)5% (25)2 (73)

Navy's Power Ratings
Navy's Power Rating: -6.29  #92
Navy's Offense Rating: 12.11  #51
Navy's Defense Rating: 18.40  #125
2025 Talent Rating: 116.00  #136
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Navy's 2025 Expected Record: 10.2 - 2.8
Navy's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.1  #57
Navy's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.9  #27
Navy's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1  #89

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Navy: -6.29   North Texas: 11.85

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Navy: 4.1   North Texas: 17.5




North Texas's Power Ratings
North Texas's Power Rating: 11.85  #65
North Texas's Offense Rating: 16.98  #28
North Texas's Defense Rating: 15.78  #115
2025 Talent Rating: 618.00  #91
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
North Texas's 2025 Expected Record: 11.6 - 2.4
North Texas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.5  #15
North Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 44.2  #1
North Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.8  #67

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Navy Scoring
Offense: 31.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.8
Defense: 26 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.2

Navy's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 2
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
North Texas 40
Navy 27


Total Points: 67

Based on Last 4 Games
North Texas 36
Navy 32

Total Points: 69

Based on Entire Season
North Texas 37
Navy 26

Total Points: 63
North Texas Scoring
Offense: 45.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 45.7
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 22

North Texas's 2025 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 4
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/01North Texas31Navy17North Texas -6.5North Texas68.5Under
202310/07Navy27North Texas24Navy -6.5North Texas60.5Under
200711/10North Texas62Navy74
TeamWinsCoversO/U
North Texas120 Overs
Navy202 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 11 - 11 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 21 - 10 - 01 - 1

(#92) NAVY at (#65) UNT
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNAVYUNT
Power RatePwr #92 #65
SP+SP+ #57 #15
Perf GradeGrade #66 #8
OffenseOff #28 #3
DefenseDef #121 #27
Spec TeamsST #71 #54
TalentTal #136 #91
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #101
Navy Notes
(11/28) A gauntlet November ends w/ 2-2 record. Impressive
(11/28) 2 straight wins w/ impressive Def improvement.
(11/16) Run over by ND, Horvath didn't play. Def ugly
(11/16) Come back and kill USF? Mids are wild, AAC threat
(10/30) CB J Ross missed FAU game, very imp vs N Tex
(10/12) Keep eaking out close wins vs meh. But 6-0 w/ bad D
(9/24) Run Off good as ever, Horvath & Tecza good duo
(9/24) Def has been OK, good Success #'s but Expl issues
(7/28) Fav'd in 1st 8 games, but final four are rough
(5/25) QB Horvath back, 30 TDs LY, Woodson #2 some exp
(5/25) FB Tecza back, WB Heidenreich/Chatman back
(5/25) IOL back, need new OT's. Check fall roster
Navy Injury Report
North Texas Notes
(12/6) Caleb Hawkins inj in MWC title game was huge
(12/2) Hired HC Neal Brown after Morris leaves for Ok St
(11/28) 600+ yds of Off in Temple W. NT in the AAC Title Game
(10/24) 37-0 closing run vs Char, Mestemaker 600+ yds
(10/10) UNT has allowed 200+ yds rushing 3 straight games
(10/9) NT Fatafehi Vailea II out for season, big loss
(10/9) DBs much better than F7, DL issues esp vs run
(10/8) Best Tackling grade via PFF into USF game
(9/19) Off on a tear, rFr QB Mestemaker brilliant start
(9/15) Mestemaker, Off has been great, WR deep
(8/18) QB1 rFr. Drew Mestemaker has won the job
(7/23) Sleeper, took SHSU Def best in the portal
North Texas Injury Report
Navy on Offense
Option Offense 76%, Pass: 23%
CategoryCat
NAVY OffUNT Def
Perf GradePerf #28 #27
SuccessSuc #11 #93
ExplosiveExp #54 #43
PPAPPA #16 #78
PowerPwr #51 #115
SP+SP+ #27 #67
Pts POPPO #36 #97
HavocHav #4 #107
Navy Run Game
Option Offense 76%, Pass: 23%
CategoryCat
NAVY OffUNT Def
Run GameRun #17 #53
Run SuccessRSuc #5 #125
Run ExplRExp #24 #82
PPAExp #7 #110
Run BlockR Blk #37 -
OL YdsOLY #5 #120
Stuff RateStuff #1 #127
TackleTak -  #8
Navy Pass Game
Option Offense 76%, Pass: 23%
CategoryCat
NAVY OffUNT Def
Pass GamePass #33 #16
Pass SuccessPSuc #57 #29
Pass ExplPExl #3 #113
PPAExp #13 #56
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #113 #78
F7 HavocF7 #18 #78
DB HavocDB #2 #127
North Texas on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatUNT OffNAVY Def
Perf GradePerf #3 #121
SuccessSuc #4 #71
ExplosiveExp #30 #110
PPAPPA #3 #115
PowerPwr #28 #125
SP+SP+ #1 #89
Pts POPPO #3 #121
HavocHav #9 #125
North Texas Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
UNT OffNAVY Def
Run GameRun #5 #119
Run SuccessRSuc #3 #45
Run ExplRExp #13 #95
PPAExp #4 #87
Run BlockR Blk #18 -
OL YdsOLY #2 #74
Stuff RateStuff #9 #83
TackleTak -  #134
North Texas Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatUNT OffNAVY Def
Pass GamePass #2 #124
Pass SuccessPSuc #8 #111
Pass ExplPExl #63 #104
PPAExp #17 #127
Pass Block/RushP Blk #19 #73
F7 HavocF7 #12 #111
DB HavocDB #25 #127
Program Comparison
UNT 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

NAVY 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Apogee Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 58°
Rematch from Week 10
North Texas -6.5 (68.5)
North Texas won vs Navy this year (31-17)

Previous Matchups
Navy beat North Texas in 2023 (27-24)

  
NAVY's OC Drew Cronic (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Horvath8814461%147210610.2
Braxton Woodson91947%110005.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Blake Horvath2081147155.559
Alex Tecza14282295.876
Eli Heidenreich6743736.525
Brandon Chatman5541537.536
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eli Heidenreich46877519.182
Brandon Chatman1615809.927
Cody Howard4128132.065
Alex Tecza12123110.329

View Navy's Full Roster

NAVY's DC P.J. Volker (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
MarcAnthony Parker937230
Giuseppe Sessi761000
Luke Pirris757443
Coleman Cauley683020
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Landon Robinson588670
Julian Moutome375423
Adam Klenk305451
Luke Pirris757443
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ira Oniha241007
Justin Ross322134
Luke Pirris757443

UNT's OC Jordan Davis (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Mestemaker31946569%43693499.4
Reese Poffenbarger (Tr)5771%36005.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Caleb Hawkins2301424256.251
Makenzie McGill7538955.227
Ashton Gray5837756.551
Kiefer Sibley4527456.145
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Wyatt Young7012641018.184
Cameron Dorner55886816.177
Miles Coleman47550211.759
Landon Sides34449113.260

View North Texas's Full Roster

UNT's DC Skyler Cassity (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ethan Wesloski1129260
Trey Fields (Tr)1007162
Will Jones II (Tr)824012
Patrick Smith-Young (Tr)701003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keviyan Huddleston (Tr)3110510
Ethan Day (Tr)547580
Joshua Pierce (Tr)142210
Zhaiylen Scott142230
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
David Fisher (Tr)483016
Bryan Allen Jr.151004
Da'Veawn Armstead (Tr)434104