Navy at North Texas - 2025 Matchup Preview
Navy logo   Navy Midshipmen at North Texas Mean Green  North Texas logo
Saturday, November 1st 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
North Texas -6.5 (68.5) (-245)  Open: -4.5
North Texas 31 - Navy: 17  (American Athletic)

 
Midshipmen (11 - 2) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Brian Newberry (14 - 10)
Avg Score : 32 - 25 (26 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.2 - 2.8 (#20)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
UNT is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: North Texas -7  (SP+ UNT -8)

Projected Score: NAVY: 29 - UNT: 36 (66)
UNT Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
NAVY Travel: 1217 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Mean Green (12 - 2) (10 - 4 - 0)
Coach Eric Morris (11 - 13)
Avg Score : 45 - 27 (46 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11.6 - 2.4 (#9)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
 
Navy's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Navy vs VMI-42.554.5W 52 - 7OY
Sat 9/6 Navy vs UAB-20.559.0W 38 - 24ON
Sat 9/13 Navy at Tulsa-14.052.5W 42 - 23OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Navy vs Rice-14.045.5W 21 - 13UN
Sat 10/4 Navy vs Air Force-13.550.5W 34 - 31ON
Sat 10/11 Navy at Temple-10.052.5W 32 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Navy vs Florida Atlantic-14.563.5W 42 - 32ON
Sat 11/1 Navy at North Texas+6.568.5L 17 - 31UN
Sat 11/8 Navy at Notre Dame+30.554.5L 10 - 49ON
Sat 11/15 Navy vs South Florida+8.562.5W 41 - 38OY
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/27 Navy at Memphis+3.557.5W 28 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 12/13 Navy vs Army-6.038.0W 17 - 16UN
Fri 1/2 Navy vs Cincinnati-7.557.5W 35 - 13UY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 5
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Navy's Schedule
North Texas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 North Texas vs Lamar-27.563.5W 51 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 North Texas at Western Michigan-12.056.0W 33 - 30ON
Sat 9/13 North Texas vs Washington State-6.557.5W 59 - 10OY
Sat 9/20 North Texas at Army-2.550.5W 45 - 38OY
Sat 9/27 North Texas vs South Alabama-13.563.5W 36 - 22UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/10 North Texas vs South Florida-2.568.5L 36 - 63ON
Sat 10/18 North Texas vs UTSA-4.064.5W 55 - 17OY
Fri 10/24 North Texas at Charlotte-25.560.5W 54 - 20OY
Sat 11/1 North Texas vs Navy-6.568.5W 31 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 North Texas at UAB-17.569.5W 53 - 24OY
Sat 11/22 North Texas at Rice-18.557.0W 56 - 24OY
Fri 11/28 North Texas vs Temple-20.065.5W 52 - 25OY
Fri 12/5 North Texas at Tulane-1.566.5L 21 - 34UN
Sat 12/27 North Texas vs San Diego State-7.555.5W 49 - 47ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 3, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Texas's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NAVY#12 (.31)44% (51)31.546% (43)3.27 (32)23139% (101)1174.39 (26)#28 (.1)41% (61)2546% (95)37% (24)3.48 (35)41.91.11.8
UNT#45 (.23)42% (70)45.140% (109)2.75 (111)15344% (39)2983.91 (69)#98 (.22)44% (98)26.547% (106)42% (79)4.03 (93)52.51.51.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NAVY0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UNT0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NAVY Offense1331.525.844.2%4.391.1163472311175.574%26%46%39%11%.31
UNT Defense1326.52244.3%4.031.1 - - - - - 54%46%47%42%11%.22
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NAVY Defense132530.241.2%3.481.8 - - - - - 51%48%46%37%14%.1
UNT Offense1345.145.742.5%3.911.5224511532985.638%62%40%44%15%.23

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Navy1327:4716.239%64%4.841.91.11.84.21.8331.6
North Texas1325:0522.136%48%6.352.51.51.14.51.7128.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NAVY Offense1374% (3)46% (43)42.3230.75.535 (8).29 (10)3.27 (32)82% (15)8% (28)1.2 (7)
UNT Defense1354% (105)47% (106) - - - - .19 (102)3.29 (111)75% (74)7% (128)0.96 (54)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NAVY Defense1351% (77)46% (95) - - - - .16 (89)3.27 (107)77% (89)9% (101)0.92 (39)
UNT Offense1338% (129)40% (109)27.6153.25.622 (55).17 (44)2.75 (111)58% (128)9% (51)1.25 (4)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NAVY Offense1326% (132)39% (101)7.112.8116.79.116.515 (98)6 (10).39 (15)2 (3)29% (26)27% (110).4 (37)3% (4)2.5 (2)
UNT Defense1346% (26)42% (79) - - - - - - 10 (66).29 (98)1.7 (94)31% (90)30% (72).31 (69)4% (128)2.1 (93)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NAVY Defense1348% (57)37% (24) - - - - - - 17 (5).07 (8)1.5 (51)31% (85)25% (8).2 (30)5% (89)2.2 (112)
UNT Offense1362% (6)44% (39)25.239.82987.511.931 (6)12 (85).26 (64)1.6 (60)33% (88)34% (35).35 (64)6% (71)2 (93)

Navy's Power Ratings
Navy's Power Rating: -6.95  #86
Navy's Offense Rating: 13.60  #64
Navy's Defense Rating: 20.55  #113
2025 Talent Rating: 116.00  #136
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Navy's 2025 Expected Record: 10.2 - 2.8
Navy's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.2  #46
Navy's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.6  #26
Navy's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9  #72

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Navy: -6.95   North Texas: 6.505

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Navy: 6.2   North Texas: 13.8




North Texas's Power Ratings
North Texas's Power Rating: 6.505  #81
North Texas's Offense Rating: 13.55  #65
North Texas's Defense Rating: 19.34  #101
2025 Talent Rating: 618.00  #91
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
North Texas's 2025 Expected Record: 11.6 - 2.4
North Texas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.8  #22
North Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 43.1  #1
North Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6  #78

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Navy Scoring
Offense: 31.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.8
Defense: 25 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.2

Navy's 2025 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
North Texas 36
Navy 29


Projected Total Points: 66
North Texas Scoring
Offense: 45.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 45.7
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 22

North Texas's 2025 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 4
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/01North Texas31Navy17North Texas -6.5North Texas68.5Under
202310/07Navy27North Texas24Navy -6.5North Texas60.5Under
200711/10North Texas62Navy74
TeamWinsCoversO/U
North Texas120 Overs
Navy202 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 11 - 11 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 21 - 10 - 01 - 1

(#86) NAVY at (#81) UNT
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNAVYUNT
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #86 #81
SP+SP+ #46 #22
Perf GradeGrade #62 #9
OffenseOff #29 #3
DefenseDef #111 #39
Spec TeamsST #82 #55
TalentTal #136 #91
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #101
Navy Notes
(11/28) A gauntlet November ends w/ 2-2 record. Impressive
(11/28) 2 straight wins w/ impressive Def improvement.
(11/16) Run over by ND, Horvath didn't play. Def ugly
(11/16) Come back and kill USF? Mids are wild, AAC threat
(10/30) CB J Ross missed FAU game, very imp vs N Tex
(10/12) Keep eaking out close wins vs meh. But 6-0 w/ bad D
(9/24) Run Off good as ever, Horvath & Tecza good duo
(9/24) Def has been OK, good Success #'s but Expl issues
(7/28) Fav'd in 1st 8 games, but final four are rough
(5/25) QB Horvath back, 30 TDs LY, Woodson #2 some exp
(5/25) FB Tecza back, WB Heidenreich/Chatman back
(5/25) IOL back, need new OT's. Check fall roster
Navy Injury Report
North Texas Notes
(12/6) Caleb Hawkins inj in MWC title game was huge
(12/2) Hired HC Neal Brown after Morris leaves for Ok St
(11/28) 600+ yds of Off in Temple W. NT in the AAC Title Game
(10/24) 37-0 closing run vs Char, Mestemaker 600+ yds
(10/10) UNT has allowed 200+ yds rushing 3 straight games
(10/9) NT Fatafehi Vailea II out for season, big loss
(10/9) DBs much better than F7, DL issues esp vs run
(10/8) Best Tackling grade via PFF into USF game
(9/19) Off on a tear, rFr QB Mestemaker brilliant start
(9/15) Mestemaker, Off has been great, WR deep
(8/18) QB1 rFr. Drew Mestemaker has won the job
(7/23) Sleeper, took SHSU Def best in the portal
North Texas Injury Report
Navy on Offense
Option Offense 76%, Pass: 23%
CategoryCat
NAVY OffUNT Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #29 #39
SuccessSuc #51 #98
ExplosiveExp #11 #62
PPAPPA #12 #98
PowerPwr #64 #101
SP+SP+ #26 #78
Pts POPPO #26 #93
HavocHav #6 #133
Navy Run Game
Option Offense 76%, Pass: 23%
CategoryCat
NAVY OffUNT Def
Run GameRun #25 #75
Run SuccessRSuc #43 #106
Run ExplRExp #7 #54
PPAExp #10 #102
Run BlockR Blk #38 -
OL YdsOLY #32 #111
Stuff RateStuff #14 #116
TackleTak -  #3
Navy Pass Game
Option Offense 76%, Pass: 23%
CategoryCat
NAVY OffUNT Def
Pass GamePass #34 #17
Pass SuccessPSuc #101 #79
Pass ExplPExl #3 #94
PPAExp #15 #98
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #115 #83
F7 HavocF7 #28 #128
DB HavocDB #4 #128
North Texas on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatUNT OffNAVY Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #3 #111
SuccessSuc #70 #61
ExplosiveExp #4 #28
PPAPPA #45 #28
PowerPwr #65 #113
SP+SP+ #1 #72
Pts POPPO #69 #35
HavocHav #47 #104
North Texas Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
UNT OffNAVY Def
Run GameRun #4 #107
Run SuccessRSuc #109 #95
Run ExplRExp #4 #39
PPAExp #44 #89
Run BlockR Blk #11 -
OL YdsOLY #111 #107
Stuff RateStuff #107 #122
TackleTak -  #133
North Texas Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatUNT OffNAVY Def
Pass GamePass #11 #120
Pass SuccessPSuc #39 #24
Pass ExplPExl #60 #51
PPAExp #64 #8
Pass Block/RushP Blk #17 #55
F7 HavocF7 #51 #101
DB HavocDB #71 #89
Program Comparison
UNT 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

NAVY 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Apogee Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 10
North Texas -6.5 (68.5)
North Texas won vs Navy this year (31-17)

Previous Matchups
North Texas beat Navy last year (31-17)
Navy beat North Texas in 2023 (27-24)

  
NAVY's OC Drew Cronic (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Horvath9715961%15801269.9
Braxton Woodson91947%110005.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Blake Horvath2241200165.459
Alex Tecza158902105.776
Eli Heidenreich7749936.525
Brandon Chatman5743137.636
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eli Heidenreich51941618.582
Brandon Chatman1715909.427
Luke Hutchison5134326.863
Cody Howard4128132.065

View Navy's Full Roster

NAVY's DC P.J. Volker (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
MarcAnthony Parker977240
Giuseppe Sessi811000
Luke Pirris787443
Coleman Cauley783030
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Landon Robinson648670
Julian Moutome428423
Adam Klenk335451
Luke Pirris787443
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ira Oniha241007
Justin Ross322134
Luke Pirris787443

UNT's OC Jordan Davis (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Mestemaker31946569%43693499.4
Reese Poffenbarger (Tr)5771%36005.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Caleb Hawkins2311424256.251
Makenzie McGill7538955.227
Ashton Gray5837756.551
Kiefer Sibley4527456.145
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Wyatt Young7012641018.184
Cameron Dorner55886816.177
Miles Coleman47550211.759
Landon Sides34449113.260

View North Texas's Full Roster

UNT's DC Skyler Cassity (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ethan Wesloski1139260
Trey Fields (Tr)1007162
Will Jones II (Tr)824012
Patrick Smith-Young (Tr)701003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keviyan Huddleston (Tr)3110510
Ethan Day (Tr)547580
Zhaiylen Scott142230
Joshua Pierce (Tr)142210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
David Fisher (Tr)483016
Bryan Allen Jr.151004
Da'Veawn Armstead (Tr)434104