UTSA at North Texas - 2025 Matchup Preview
UTSA logo UTSA Roadrunners at North Texas Mean GreenNorth Texas logo
Saturday, October 18th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Apogee Stadium - Denton, TX  (American Athletic)

 
Roadrunners (1 - 2) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Jeff Traylor (45 - 20)
Avg Score : 36 - 35 (24 - 42 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.4 - 5.6 (#76)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 5)
UNT 3rd straight Home Game
Our Line: North Texas -7   (SP+ -0)

Projected Score: UTSA: 29 - UNT: 36 (65)
UNT Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
UTSA Travel: 273 miles
Mean Green (3 - 0) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Eric Morris (11 - 13)
Avg Score : 48 - 13 (55 - 5 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 2 (#8)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 6)
 
UTSA's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 UTSA at Texas A&M+21.556.5L 24 - 42OY
Sat 9/6 UTSA vs Texas State-4.564.5L 36 - 43ON
Sat 9/13 UTSA vs Incarnate Word-21.062.5W 48 - 20OY
Sat 9/20 UTSA at Colorado State-4.559.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 UTSA at Temple+0.5
Sat 10/11 UTSA vs Rice-13.5
Sat 10/18 UTSA at North Texas+7
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/30 UTSA vs Tulane+1.5
Thu 11/6 UTSA at South Florida+6
Sat 11/15 UTSA at Charlotte-14.5
Sat 11/22 UTSA vs East Carolina-1
Fri 11/28 UTSA vs Army-9.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 4, Bad 4, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for UTSA's Schedule
North Texas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 North Texas vs Lamar-27.563.5W 51 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 North Texas at Western Michigan-12.056.0W 33 - 30ON
Sat 9/13 North Texas vs Washington State-6.557.5W 59 - 10OY
Sat 9/20 North Texas at Army-2.552.5
Sat 9/27 North Texas vs South Alabama-13
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/10 North Texas vs South Florida-3.5
Sat 10/18 North Texas vs UTSA-7
Fri 10/24 North Texas at Charlotte-19
Sat 11/1 North Texas vs Navy-5.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 North Texas at UAB-16.5
Sat 11/22 North Texas at Rice-12.5
Sat 11/29 North Texas vs Temple-8.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Texas's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UTSA#34 (.32)43% (74)3644% (72)3.17 (48)22842% (81)2094.8 (37)#118 (.28)41% (77)3537% (54)45% (101)6 (135)51.301.7
UNT#18 (.4)46% (49)47.750% (40)3.45 (28)15945% (57)2675.7 (6)#14 (-.06)33% (26)13.335% (35)30% (19)2.25 (23)48.70.32.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UTSA#61 (.2)40% (100)37% (123)3.03 (70)16943% (61)2833.63 (94)#42 (.13)34% (2)32% (1)36% (16)3.78 (66)81.11.71.6
UNT#45 (.23)42% (70)40% (109)2.75 (111)15344% (39)2983.91 (69)#98 (.22)44% (98)47% (106)42% (79)4.03 (93)52.51.51.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UTSA Offense3362442.9%4.80214372282096.844%56%44%42%17%.32
UNT Defense313.3533.1%2.252.3 - - - - - 64%36%35%30%15%-.06
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UTSA Defense3354240.7%61.7 - - - - - 49%51%37%45%17%.28
UNT Offense347.75546.5%5.70.3244261592674.841%57%50%45%12%.4

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
UTSA332:4521.336%38%5.351.301.75.71.7029
North Texas328:2724.350%67%5.348.70.32.36.32.3039.1
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UTSA Offense344% (100)44% (72)33.7228.36.87 (38).38 (15)3.17 (48)75% (52)12% (117)1.61 (3)
UNT Defense364% (130)35% (35) - - - - -.01 (44)2.44 (38)73% (75)11% (48)1.01 (82)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UTSA Defense349% (59)37% (54) - - - - .07 (68)2.17 (19)50% (19)10% (74)1.05 (89)
UNT Offense341% (121)50% (40)33.3159.34.89 (17).42 (9)3.45 (28)57% (114)8% (56)1.28 (20)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UTSA Offense356% (32)42% (81)24.337.32095.68.67 (23)0 (1).28 (71)1.5 (87)35% (114)39% (28).69 (19)5% (57)2.4 (18)
UNT Defense336% (7)30% (19) - - - - - - 4 (12)-.13 (12)1.4 (34)37% (29)30% (77).19 (55)3% (118)1.7 (39)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UTSA Defense351% (80)45% (101) - - - - - - 3 (28).49 (119)2 (132)36% (38)33% (94).53 (115)7% (41)2.3 (113)
UNT Offense357% (20)45% (57)23.733.7266.77.911.39 (13)0 (1).42 (40)1.6 (61)24% (18)46% (12).8 (10)4% (45)1.9 (88)

UTSA's Power Ratings
UTSA's Power Rating: -0.49 #80
UTSA's Offense Rating: 17.04 #43
UTSA's Defense Rating: 17.53 #109
2025 Talent Rating: 648.00 #85
Blue Chip Ratio: 7% #46
UTSA's 2025 Expected Record: 6.4 - 5.6
UTSA's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.2 #66
UTSA's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.8 #22
UTSA's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.7 #109

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
UTSA: -0.49   North Texas: 7.24

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UTSA: 1.2   North Texas: 1.2




North Texas's Power Ratings
North Texas's Power Rating: 7.24 #59
North Texas's Offense Rating: 13.27 #66
North Texas's Defense Rating: 4.99 #55
2025 Talent Rating: 618.00 #91
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
North Texas's 2025 Expected Record: 10.0 - 2.0
North Texas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.2 #66
North Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.0 #27
North Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.7 #101

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


UTSA Scoring
Offense: 36 PPG
Offense on Road: 24
Defense: 35 PPG
Defense on Road: 42

UTSA's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
North Texas 36
UTSA 29


Total Points: 65

North Texas Scoring
Offense: 47.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 55
Defense: 13.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 5

North Texas's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/15UTSA48North Texas27UTSAUTSA -1UTSA73.0Over
202311/04North Texas29UTSA37UTSAUT San Antonio -7.5UTSA71.0Under
202212/02UTSA48North Texas27UTSAUT San Antonio -8.5UTSA70.0Over
202210/22UTSA31North Texas27UTSAUT San Antonio -10North Texas73.0Under
202111/27North Texas45UTSA23North TexasUT San Antonio -8.5North Texas60.0Over
202011/28UTSA49North Texas17UTSAUT San Antonio -1.5UTSA67.0Under
201909/21North Texas45UTSA3North TexasNorth Texas -17.5North Texas57.0Under
201811/24UTSA21North Texas24North TexasNorth Texas -25UTSA51.5Under
201710/14North Texas29UTSA26North TexasUT San Antonio -2.5North Texas58.5Under
201610/29UTSA31North Texas17UTSAUT San Antonio -4UTSA51.0Under
201510/31North Texas30UTSA23North TexasUT San Antonio -12North Texas54.5Under
201411/29UTSA34North Texas27UTSAUT San Antonio -6UTSA0
201311/23North Texas13UTSA21UTSANorth Texas -7UTSA0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
North Texas553 Overs
UTSA888 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams10 - 310 - 36 - 24 - 1
Road Teams3 - 103 - 101 - 42 - 6

(#80) UTSA Info
Power Rating: -0.49 #80
Offense Rating: 17.04 #43
Defense Rating: 17.53 #109
Overall SP+ Rating: 1.2 #66
Offense SP+ Rating: 34.8 #22
Defense SP+ Rating: 33.7 #109
Talent Rating: 648.00 #85
Blue Chip Ratio: 7% #46
Expected Record: 6.4 - 5.6

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 43%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.8 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Bad Pass Success 42%
Poor OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 41%
Awful in Scoring Position 6 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 37%
Poor Pass Def Success 45%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

UTSA has lost 3 straight
UTSA has lost 3 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 1 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

UTSA Notes
(7/20) RB Emery Jr (5*, LSU) fun add if healthy
(7/6) WR good/deep, 4/6 back. TE Thomas a weapon
(7/6) Proj #1 WR Clark will not play in 2025, NFL
(7/4) Def bad LY, 12 portal adds, 3 DL & 6 DBs
(6/25) Sched opp no Mem/Navy, Tul/Army/ECU home
(6/2) RB Henry returns (#2 LY), depth must develop
(5/11) Most exp'd returning OL in CFB
(4/29) FCS WR AJ Wilson avg'd 28.4 ypc @ Hou Chr LY
(3/24) QB McCown a great one w/ wheels
(3/24) OL 5/5 back, but bad LY. 3 portal adds. Jump?

UTSA Highlights
UTSA has Really Good Running Game (#17)
UTSA offense is explosive (#11)
UTSA Defensive Line is very good (#19)
UTSA has a great TO Margin (#1)
UTSA defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

UTSA Deficiencies
UTSA Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
UTSA gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#130)
UTSA has a bad red zone defense (#135)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatUNTUTSA
OverallOver#10#88
OffenseOff#27#77
DefenseDef#14#101
Special TeamsST#39#111
PassingPass#8#42
RushingRush#25#33
Run BlockRBLK#47#106
Pass BlockPBLK#45#88
Route RunningWR Rt#46#70
TacklingTkl#4#104
Run DefenseR Def#18#94
Pass Rush DefPRush#68#97
Coverage DefCov#14#94

Previous Matchups
UTSA beat North Texas last year (48-27)
UTSA beat North Texas in 2023 (37-29)
UTSA beat North Texas in 2022 (31-27)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Apogee Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: UTSA | UNT
Depth Chart: UTSA | UNT
Rosters: UTSA | UNT
(#59) North Texas Info
Power Rating: 7.24 #59
Offense Rating: 13.27 #66
Defense Rating: 4.99 #55
Overall SP+ Rating: 1.2 #66
Offense SP+ Rating: 34.0 #27
Defense SP+ Rating: 32.7 #101
Talent Rating: 618.00 #91
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Expected Record: 10.0 - 2.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 41%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 46%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 5.7 PPO
Good Run Success 50%
Avg Pass Success 45%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 33%
Good in Scoring Position 2.25 PPO
Good Run Def Success 35%
Great Pass Def Success 30%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position

North Texas has lost 3 straight
North Texas has lost 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 0 (2 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)

North Texas Notes
(9/15) Mestemaker, Off has been great, WR deep
(8/18) QB1 rFr. Drew Mestemaker has won the job
(7/23) Sleeper, took SHSU Def best in the portal
(7/23) QB Poffenbarger big time @ FCS Albany '23-'24
(3/23) RB rebuild, McGill/Sibley? 3 Portal adds
(3/23) WR rebuild, have 5 exp options. Evans (SHSU)
(3/23) Def bad LY, 9 DL, 7 DB portal adds, new DC
(3/23) New DC Cassity was SHSU DC, Alb Chr before
(3/22) 8 portals from SHSU (4 starters) with DC

North Texas Highlights
North Texas in Undefeated
North Texas is Undefeated at Home
North Texas is Undefeated vs Spread at Home

North Texas offense is explosive (#20)
North Texas has a top Offensive Line (#28)
North Texas offense is good in red zone (#6)
North Texas offense is good on 3rd downs
North Texas has a really good defense (#26)
North Texas defense is really good in red zone (#23)
North Texas has a good pass defense (#19)
North Texas has a great TO Margin (#11)
North Texas defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#12)

North Texas Deficiencies


  
UTSA's OC Justin Burke
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Owen McCown7111065%578605.3
Brandon Tennison22100%491024.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Robert Henry47480610.275
Will Henderson III239404.123
Owen McCown115705.222
A'Marion Peterson (Tr)133612.810
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Devin Mccuin1816729.342
AJ Wilson (Tr)6151225.277
Houston Thomas98409.321
David Amador570014.022

View UTSA's Full Roster
UTSA's DC Jess Loepp
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Shadrach Banks212000
Jimmy Wyrick150000
KK Meier (Tr)100002
Brandon Tucker Jr.100010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kenny Ozowalu54211
Timothy Huff Jr.31100
Daemian Wimberly53100
Jonathan Jones43111
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jakevian Rodgers70002
KK Meier (Tr)100002
Johnny Bowens III00011

North Texas's OC Jordan Davis
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Mestemaker669470%764908.1
Reese Poffenbarger (Tr)5771%36005.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Makenzie McGill3117035.527
Jayden Becks (Tr)167824.916
Kiefer Sibley137625.830
Caleb Hawkins136815.216
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Wyatt Young10160216.046
Cameron Dorner9121213.425
Miles Coleman1110809.824
Simeon Evans (Tr)790012.930

View North Texas's Full Roster
North Texas's DC Skyler Cassity
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Shane Whitter251030
Trey Fields (Tr)192000
Ethan Wesloski164100
Ethan Day (Tr)122210
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keviyan Huddleston (Tr)43300
Ethan Day (Tr)122210
Zhaiylen Scott81120
Joshua Pierce (Tr)21100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Quinton Hammonds101001
Bryan Allen Jr.40001
Da'Veawn Armstead (Tr)81001