UTSA at North Texas - 2025 Matchup Preview
UTSA logo UTSA Roadrunners at North Texas Mean GreenNorth Texas logo
Saturday, October 18th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
North Texas -4 (64.5) (-192)  Open: -5.5
North Texas 55 - UTSA: 17  (American Athletic)

 
Roadrunners (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jeff Traylor (45 - 20)
Avg Score : 36 - 29 (22 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.7 - 6.3 (#71)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)
Rain Predicted
UNT 3rd straight Home Game
Our Line: North Texas -12  (SP+ UNT -16)

Projected Score: UTSA: 26 - UNT: 38 (64)
UNT Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
UTSA Travel: 273 miles
Mean Green (12 - 2) (10 - 4 - 0)
Coach Eric Morris (11 - 13)
Avg Score : 45 - 27 (46 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11.6 - 2.4 (#9)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 4)
 
UTSA's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 UTSA at Texas A&M+21.556.5L 24 - 42OY
Sat 9/6 UTSA vs Texas State-4.564.5L 36 - 43ON
Sat 9/13 UTSA vs Incarnate Word-21.062.5W 48 - 20OY
Sat 9/20 UTSA at Colorado State-4.558.5W 17 - 16UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 UTSA at Temple-6.558.5L 21 - 27UN
Sat 10/11 UTSA vs Rice-8.548.5W 61 - 13OY
Sat 10/18 UTSA at North Texas+4.064.5L 17 - 55ON
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/30 UTSA vs Tulane+5.554.5W 48 - 26OY
Thu 11/6 UTSA at South Florida+14.066.5L 23 - 55ON
Sat 11/15 UTSA at Charlotte-16.557.5W 28 - 7UY
Sat 11/22 UTSA vs East Carolina+2.062.5W 58 - 24OY
Sat 11/29 UTSA vs Army-8.550.5L 24 - 27ON
Fri 12/26 UTSA vs Florida International-7.062.5W 57 - 20OY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for UTSA's Schedule
North Texas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 North Texas vs Lamar-27.563.5W 51 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 North Texas at Western Michigan-12.056.0W 33 - 30ON
Sat 9/13 North Texas vs Washington State-6.557.5W 59 - 10OY
Sat 9/20 North Texas at Army-2.550.5W 45 - 38OY
Sat 9/27 North Texas vs South Alabama-13.563.5W 36 - 22UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/10 North Texas vs South Florida-2.568.5L 36 - 63ON
Sat 10/18 North Texas vs UTSA-4.064.5W 55 - 17OY
Fri 10/24 North Texas at Charlotte-25.560.5W 54 - 20OY
Sat 11/1 North Texas vs Navy-6.568.5W 31 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 North Texas at UAB-17.569.5W 53 - 24OY
Sat 11/22 North Texas at Rice-18.557.0W 56 - 24OY
Fri 11/28 North Texas vs Temple-20.065.5W 52 - 25OY
Fri 12/5 North Texas at Tulane-1.566.5L 21 - 34UN
Sat 12/27 North Texas vs San Diego State-7.555.5W 49 - 47ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 3, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Texas's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UTSA#33 (.23)45% (35)35.545% (49)2.81 (97)16047% (23)2254.23 (29)#82 (.18)40% (46)28.840% (44)40% (49)4.09 (108)58.50.91.2
UNT#3 (.36)51% (4)45.153% (3)3.58 (2)16851% (8)2994.98 (3)#78 (.18)44% (93)26.548% (125)37% (29)3.93 (97)39.11.21.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UTSA#61 (.2)40% (100)37% (123)3.03 (70)16943% (61)2833.63 (94)#42 (.13)34% (2)32% (1)36% (16)3.78 (66)81.11.71.6
UNT#45 (.23)42% (70)40% (109)2.75 (111)15344% (39)2983.91 (69)#98 (.22)44% (98)47% (106)42% (79)4.03 (93)52.51.51.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UTSA Offense1335.521.745.4%4.230.9203841602255.146%52%45%47%16%.23
UNT Defense1426.52243.6%3.931.8 - - - - - 60%38%48%37%14%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UTSA Defense1328.833.739.6%4.091.2 - - - - - 50%49%40%40%19%.18
UNT Offense1445.145.751.2%4.981.2244671682995.147%51%53%51%12%.36

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
UTSA1329:2819.840%42%6.558.50.91.25.31.6231.8
North Texas1426:0323.546%69%4.939.11.21.851.6033.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UTSA Offense1346% (102)45% (49)31.1159.85.117 (49).19 (36)2.81 (97)73% (63)10% (102)1.17 (6)
UNT Defense1460% (134)48% (125) - - - - .18 (110)3.23 (120)78% (114)9% (78)0.98 (82)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UTSA Defense1350% (66)40% (44) - - - - .12 (83)2.86 (62)64% (21)11% (24)0.97 (72)
UNT Offense1447% (87)53% (3)33.1167.95.145 (1).33 (4)3.58 (2)73% (67)7% (12)1.11 (13)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UTSA Offense1352% (38)47% (23)21.532224.5710.431 (33)7 (34).33 (42)1.5 (95)30% (46)36% (20).45 (20)6% (59)2.2 (12)
UNT Defense1438% (2)37% (29) - - - - - - 13 (31).21 (56)1.7 (113)29% (116)29% (62).27 (62)4% (127)1.9 (30)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UTSA Defense1349% (78)40% (49) - - - - - - 9 (75).29 (87)1.8 (131)35% (18)28% (49).3 (70)7% (20)2.2 (122)
UNT Offense1451% (47)51% (8)21.330.6299.49.814.132 (8)7 (20).43 (17)1.6 (63)26% (12)39% (8).44 (21)5% (25)2 (73)

UTSA's Power Ratings
UTSA's Power Rating: -2.27  #78
UTSA's Offense Rating: 12.57  #49
UTSA's Defense Rating: 14.84  #110
2025 Talent Rating: 648.00  #85
Blue Chip Ratio: 7%  #46
UTSA's 2025 Expected Record: 6.7 - 6.3
UTSA's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.6  #65
UTSA's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.2  #39
UTSA's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.0  #95

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
UTSA: -2.27   North Texas: 11.85

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UTSA: 1.6   North Texas: 17.5




North Texas's Power Ratings
North Texas's Power Rating: 11.85  #65
North Texas's Offense Rating: 16.98  #28
North Texas's Defense Rating: 15.78  #115
2025 Talent Rating: 618.00  #91
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
North Texas's 2025 Expected Record: 11.6 - 2.4
North Texas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.5  #15
North Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 44.2  #1
North Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.8  #67

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


UTSA Scoring
Offense: 35.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.7
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 33.7

UTSA's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 3
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
North Texas 38
UTSA 26


Total Points: 64

Based on Last 4 Games
North Texas 32
UTSA 30

Total Points: 62

Based on Entire Season
North Texas 38
UTSA 26

Total Points: 64
North Texas Scoring
Offense: 45.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 45.7
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 22

North Texas's 2025 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 4
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/18North Texas55UTSA17North Texas -4North Texas64.5Over
202411/15UTSA48North Texas27UTSA -1UTSA73.0Over
202311/04North Texas29UTSA37UT San Antonio -7.5UTSA71.0Under
202212/02UTSA48North Texas27UT San Antonio -8.5UTSA70.0Over
202210/22UTSA31North Texas27UT San Antonio -10North Texas73.0Under
202111/27North Texas45UTSA23UT San Antonio -8.5North Texas60.0Over
202011/28UTSA49North Texas17UT San Antonio -1.5UTSA67.0Under
201909/21North Texas45UTSA3North Texas -17.5North Texas57.0Under
201811/24UTSA21North Texas24North Texas -25UTSA51.5Under
201710/14North Texas29UTSA26UT San Antonio -2.5North Texas58.5Under
201610/29UTSA31North Texas17UT San Antonio -4UTSA51.0Under
201510/31North Texas30UTSA23UT San Antonio -12North Texas54.5Under
201411/29UTSA34North Texas27UT San Antonio -6UTSA0
201311/23North Texas13UTSA21North Texas -7UTSA0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
North Texas664 Overs
UTSA888 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams11 - 311 - 37 - 24 - 1
Road Teams3 - 113 - 111 - 42 - 7

(#78) UTSA at (#65) UNT
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUTSAUNT
Power RatePwr #78 #65
SP+SP+ #65 #15
Perf GradeGrade #105 #8
OffenseOff #70 #3
DefenseDef #120 #27
Spec TeamsST #121 #54
TalentTal #85 #91
Blue ChipsBC% #46 #101
UTSA Notes
(11/29) Wild season ends w/ loss to Army. 6-6 feels meh
(11/22) Killed ECU to get bowl eligible. Odd year 4 Meeps
(10/31) McCown was 31/33 for 370, 4 TD in Tulane rout
(10/5) Def is poor & Off isn't enough, danger of bowl miss
(9/24) Off good, RB Henry great, Def is really bad
(9/24) QB McCown & Pass Def awful vs CSU, lucky W
(7/28) Offense should be lethal, up to Def portals/dev
(7/20) RB Emery Jr (5*, LSU) fun add if healthy
(7/6) WR good/deep, 4/6 back. TE Thomas a weapon
(7/6) Proj #1 WR Clark will not play in 2025, NFL
(7/4) Def bad LY, 12 portal adds, 3 DL & 6 DBs
(6/25) Sched opp no Mem/Navy, Tul/Army/ECU home
UTSA Injury Report
North Texas Notes
(12/6) Caleb Hawkins inj in MWC title game was huge
(12/2) Hired HC Neal Brown after Morris leaves for Ok St
(11/28) 600+ yds of Off in Temple W. NT in the AAC Title Game
(10/24) 37-0 closing run vs Char, Mestemaker 600+ yds
(10/10) UNT has allowed 200+ yds rushing 3 straight games
(10/9) NT Fatafehi Vailea II out for season, big loss
(10/9) DBs much better than F7, DL issues esp vs run
(10/8) Best Tackling grade via PFF into USF game
(9/19) Off on a tear, rFr QB Mestemaker brilliant start
(9/15) Mestemaker, Off has been great, WR deep
(8/18) QB1 rFr. Drew Mestemaker has won the job
(7/23) Sleeper, took SHSU Def best in the portal
North Texas Injury Report
UTSA on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
UTSA OffUNT Def
Perf GradePerf #70 #27
SuccessSuc #35 #93
ExplosiveExp #24 #43
PPAPPA #33 #78
PowerPwr #49 #115
SP+SP+ #39 #67
Pts POPPO #29 #97
HavocHav #79 #107
UTSA Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
UTSA OffUNT Def
Run GameRun #51 #53
Run SuccessRSuc #49 #125
Run ExplRExp #6 #82
PPAExp #36 #110
Run BlockR Blk #102 -
OL YdsOLY #97 #120
Stuff RateStuff #107 #127
TackleTak -  #8
UTSA Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
UTSA OffUNT Def
Pass GamePass #54 #16
Pass SuccessPSuc #23 #29
Pass ExplPExl #95 #113
PPAExp #42 #56
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #112 #78
F7 HavocF7 #102 #78
DB HavocDB #59 #127
North Texas on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatUNT OffUTSA Def
Perf GradePerf #3 #120
SuccessSuc #4 #46
ExplosiveExp #30 #126
PPAPPA #3 #82
PowerPwr #28 #110
SP+SP+ #1 #95
Pts POPPO #3 #108
HavocHav #9 #18
North Texas Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
UNT OffUTSA Def
Run GameRun #5 #114
Run SuccessRSuc #3 #44
Run ExplRExp #13 #72
PPAExp #4 #83
Run BlockR Blk #18 -
OL YdsOLY #2 #62
Stuff RateStuff #9 #77
TackleTak -  #117
North Texas Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatUNT OffUTSA Def
Pass GamePass #2 #116
Pass SuccessPSuc #8 #49
Pass ExplPExl #63 #131
PPAExp #17 #87
Pass Block/RushP Blk #19 #75
F7 HavocF7 #12 #24
DB HavocDB #25 #20
Program Comparison
UNT 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

UTSA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Apogee Stadium
Conditions: Rain
Temp: 76° - Wind: 8 mph
Rain: 0.031
Rematch from Week 8
North Texas -4.0 (64.5)
North Texas won vs UTSA this year (55-17)

Previous Matchups
UTSA beat North Texas last year (48-27)
UTSA beat North Texas in 2023 (37-29)
UTSA beat North Texas in 2022 (31-27)

  
UTSA's OC Justin Burke (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Owen McCown27640968%29903077.3
Brandon Tennison203459%199205.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Robert Henry151104596.976
Will Henderson III12586666.959
A'Marion Peterson (Tr)4917733.614
Bryson Donnell208414.228
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Devin Mccuin65726811.252
AJ Wilson (Tr)30523417.477
David Amador4544349.845
Houston Thomas34347210.232

View UTSA's Full Roster

UTSA's DC Jess Loepp (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Shadrach Banks938222
Jimmy Wyrick621008
Tyan Milton513013
Kendrick Blackshire441101
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nnanna Anyanwu217541
Kenny Ozowalu166331
Chidera Otutu283300
Jonathan Jones158324
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jimmy Wyrick621008
KK Meier (Tr)250005
Jakevian Rodgers232004

UNT's OC Jordan Davis (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Mestemaker31946569%43693499.4
Reese Poffenbarger (Tr)5771%36005.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Caleb Hawkins2301424256.251
Makenzie McGill7538955.227
Ashton Gray5837756.551
Kiefer Sibley4527456.145
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Wyatt Young7012641018.184
Cameron Dorner55886816.177
Miles Coleman47550211.759
Landon Sides34449113.260

View North Texas's Full Roster

UNT's DC Skyler Cassity (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ethan Wesloski1129260
Trey Fields (Tr)1007162
Will Jones II (Tr)824012
Patrick Smith-Young (Tr)701003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keviyan Huddleston (Tr)3110510
Ethan Day (Tr)547580
Joshua Pierce (Tr)142210
Zhaiylen Scott142230
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
David Fisher (Tr)483016
Bryan Allen Jr.151004
Da'Veawn Armstead (Tr)434104