Ohio State at Michigan State - 2024 Matchup Preview
Ohio State logo (#1)Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan State SpartansMichigan State logo
Saturday, September 28th 2024 (7:30 PM EDT)
Ohio State -23.5 (48.5) (-2400)  Open: -25.0
Ohio State 38 - Michigan State: 7  (Big Ten)

 
Buckeyes (14 - 2) (10 - 6 - 0)
Coach Ryan Day (56 - 8)
Avg Score : 36 - 13 (30 - 17 on Road)
Record Prediction: 14 - 2 (#1)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
MSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Ohio State -32.5   (SP+ OSU -36)

Projected Score: OSU: 40 - MSU: 7 (47)
OSU Win prob: 96% | Cover: 54%
OSU Travel: 203 miles
Spartans (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jonathan Smith (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 26 (20 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Ohio State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Ohio State vs Akron-50.558.5W 52 - 6UN
Sat 9/7 Ohio State vs Western Michigan-37.554.5W 56 - 0OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21 Ohio State vs Marshall-40.057.0W 49 - 14ON
Sat 9/28 Ohio State at Michigan State-23.548.5W 38 - 7UY
Sat 10/5 Ohio State vs Iowa-17.046.0W 35 - 7UY
Sat 10/12 Ohio State at Oregon-3.554.5L 31 - 32ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26 Ohio State vs Nebraska-25.048.5W 21 - 17UN
Sat 11/2 Ohio State at Penn State-3.047.5W 20 - 13UY
Sat 11/9 Ohio State vs Purdue-37.555.5W 45 - 0UY
Sat 11/16 Ohio State vs Northwestern-28.043.5W 31 - 7UN
Sat 11/23 Ohio State vs Indiana-10.552.5W 38 - 15OY
Sat 11/30 Ohio State vs Michigan-20.541.5L 10 - 13UN
Sat 12/21 Ohio State vs Tennessee-7.547.0W 42 - 17OY
Wed 1/1 Ohio State vs Oregon-2.555.5W 41 - 21OY
Fri 1/10 Ohio State vs Texas-6.551.5W 28 - 14UY
Mon 1/20 Ohio State vs Notre Dame-8.545.5W 34 - 23OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Ohio State's Schedule
Michigan State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30 Michigan State vs Florida Atlantic-12.045.0W 16 - 10UN
Sat 9/7 Michigan State at Maryland+7.544.5W 27 - 24OY
Sat 9/14 Michigan State vs Prairie View A&M-42.553.5W 40 - 0UN
Sat 9/21 Michigan State at Boston College+4.545.5L 19 - 23UY
Sat 9/28 Michigan State vs Ohio State+23.548.5L 7 - 38UN
Fri 10/4 Michigan State at Oregon+22.553.0L 10 - 31UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 Michigan State vs Iowa+7.039.5W 32 - 20OY
Sat 10/26 Michigan State at Michigan+3.539.0L 17 - 24ON
Sat 11/2 Michigan State vs Indiana+7.553.5L 10 - 47ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Michigan State at Illinois+2.047.5L 16 - 38ON
Fri 11/22 Michigan State vs Purdue-14.049.0W 24 - 17UN
Sat 11/30 Michigan State vs Rutgers-1.546.5L 14 - 41ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
OSU#1 (.43)52% (3)35.748% (19)3.37 (15)13756% (1)2114.6 (15)#2 (-.01)36% (7)12.939% (26)34% (8)2.05 (1)31.60.81.1
MSU#105 (.13)42% (86)19.345% (50)2.76 (109)11838% (107)2183.34 (116)#85 (.19)42% (69)26.139% (25)45% (111)4.06 (98)63.31.60.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
OSU#1 (.43)52% (3)48% (19)3.37 (15)13756% (1)2114.6 (15)#2 (-.01)36% (7)39% (26)34% (8)2.05 (1)31.60.81.1
MSU#105 (.13)42% (86)45% (50)2.76 (109)11838% (107)2183.34 (116)#85 (.19)42% (69)39% (25)45% (111)4.06 (98)63.31.60.9



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
OSU Offense1635.729.751.8%4.60.817347137211549%50%48%56%12%.43
MSU Defense1226.124.741.7%4.060.9 - - - - - 50%50%39%45%14%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
OSU Defense1612.917.336.3%2.051.1 - - - - - 53%46%39%34%19%-.01
MSU Offense1219.320.441.6%3.341.6193371182183.750%50%45%38%18%.13

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Ohio State1624:2716.942%70%3.431.60.81.15.12.4228.8
Michigan State1230:5418.838%52%6.763.31.60.95.51.6126.3
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
OSU Offense1649% (77)48% (19)27.3136.8528 (25).31 (8)3.37 (15)76% (48)7% (7)1.11 (16)
MSU Defense1250% (56)39% (25) - - - - .06 (36)2.8 (37)67% (29)10% (64)1.01 (80)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
OSU Defense1653% (90)39% (26) - - - - .01 (15)2.9 (48)67% (33)13% (16)0.87 (20)
MSU Offense1250% (74)45% (50)32.4118.43.711 (116).02 (116)2.76 (109)74% (66)12% (112)0.82 (126)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
OSU Offense1650% (60)56% (1)16.723.4210.6912.631 (6)9 (48).58 (1)1.6 (70)27% (7)37% (12).55 (6)5% (42)2.1 (41)
MSU Defense1250% (79)45% (111) - - - - - - 9 (76).34 (111)1.7 (101)32% (70)35% (118).43 (111)4% (121)2.1 (74)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
OSU Defense1646% (35)34% (8) - - - - - - 9 (76).02 (2)1.5 (28)32% (74)30% (66).16 (13)6% (61)1.7 (6)
MSU Offense1250% (61)38% (107)17.729.5218.17.412.313 (116)13 (103).24 (79)1.6 (57)33% (106)25% (122).18 (113)6% (63)2 (80)

Ohio State's Power Ratings
Ohio State's Power Rating: 32.14 #1
Ohio State's Offense Rating: 29.14 #5
Ohio State's Defense Rating: -3.55 #1
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 75% #2
Ohio State's 2024 Expected Record: 14.0 - 2.0
Ohio State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 31.2 #1
Ohio State's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.5 #3
Ohio State's Defense SP+ Rating: 9.2 #1

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Ohio State: 32.14   Michigan State: -0.955

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ohio State: 31.2   Michigan State: -4.6




Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: -0.955 #70
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 16.47 #101
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 10.30 #75
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 15 #31
Michigan State's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Michigan State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.6 #90
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.0 #119
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #49

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Ohio State Scoring
Offense: 35.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 29.7
Defense: 12.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 17.3

Ohio State's 2024 Record
Record: 14 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Ohio State 40
Michigan State 7


Total Points: 47

Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 20.4
Defense: 26.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.7

Michigan State's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 6 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/28Michigan State7Ohio State38Ohio StateOhio State -23.5Ohio State48.5Under
202311/11Ohio State38Michigan State3Ohio StateOhio State -30.5Ohio State48.5Under
202210/08Michigan State20Ohio State49Ohio StateOhio State -27Ohio State64.5Over
202111/20Ohio State56Michigan State7Ohio StateOhio State -19.5Ohio State70.5Under
202012/05Michigan State12Ohio State52Ohio StateOhio State -22.5Ohio State59.0Over
201910/05Ohio State34Michigan State10Ohio StateOhio State -19Ohio State51.0Under
201811/10Michigan State6Ohio State26Ohio StateOhio State -3Ohio State50.0Under
201711/11Ohio State48Michigan State3Ohio StateOhio State -17.5Ohio State56.5Under
201611/19Michigan State16Ohio State17Ohio StateOhio State -23.5Michigan State50.0Under
201511/21Ohio State14Michigan State17Michigan StateOhio State -13Michigan State53.5Under
201411/08Michigan State37Ohio State49Ohio StateMichigan State -2Ohio State0
201312/07Michigan State34Ohio State24Michigan StateOhio State -6.5Michigan State0
201209/29Michigan State16Ohio State17Ohio State
201110/01Ohio State7Michigan State10Michigan State
200810/18Michigan State7Ohio State45Ohio State
200710/20Ohio State24Michigan State17Ohio State
200610/14Michigan State7Ohio State38Ohio State
200510/15Ohio State35Michigan State24Ohio State
200411/06Michigan State19Ohio State32Ohio State
200311/08Ohio State33Michigan State23Ohio State
200011/03Ohio State27Michigan State13Ohio State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Michigan State332 Overs
Ohio State1898 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams9 - 126 - 64 - 22 - 4
Road Teams12 - 96 - 64 - 22 - 4

(#1) Ohio State Info
Power Rating: 32.14 #1
Offense Rating: 29.14 #5
Defense Rating: -3.55 #1
Overall SP+ Rating: 31.2 #1
Offense SP+ Rating: 39.5 #3
Defense SP+ Rating: 9.2 #1
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 75% #2
Expected Record: 14.0 - 2.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
Great Offense Success Rate of 52%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.6 PPO
Great Run Success 48%
Great Pass Success 56%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 36%
Great in Scoring Position 2.05 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Great Pass Def Success 34%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position

Ohio State has won 3 straight
Record on Road: 6 - 1 (2 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Ohio State Notes
(12/1) Off awful, Rgame abysmal, Howard 2 Int in UM L
(12/1) 20 mil roster, still can't beat U. Coaching fail
(11/24) Mauled IU, D held to 153 yds. Off was OK
(11/19) Starting C McLaughlin out for season (ACL)
(11/18) Flat start vs NW, Howard OK, Rgame just OK
(11/3) OL was great considering injuries. Rgame beat PSU
(11/2) Def owned Penn St. Howard tough, Rgame alive
(10/26) Backup LT went down in Nebraska game
(10/22) Starting LT Simmons out for season
(10/12) Def torched by Oregon. Judkins/Downs vanished

Ohio State Highlights
Ohio State offense is efficent (#19)
Ohio State offense is explosive (#91)
Ohio State has a top Offensive Line (#69)
Ohio State offense is good in red zone (#18)
Ohio State Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Ohio State has a really good defense (#24)
Ohio State defense does not give up big plays (#9)
Ohio State defense is really good in red zone (#8)
Ohio State has a good run defense (#41)
Ohio State has a good pass defense (#25)
Ohio State Front 7 is disruptive (#48)
Ohio State has a great TO Margin (#54)
Ohio State commits very few Penalties (#16)

Ohio State Deficiencies

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatMSUOSU
OverallOver#76#2
OffenseOff#84#5
DefenseDef#84#2
Special TeamsST#99#10
PassingPass#84#16
RushingRush#21#14
Run BlockRBLK#87#24
Pass BlockPBLK#109#82
Route RunningWR Rt#49#4
TacklingTkl#28#11
Run DefenseR Def#22#3
Pass Rush DefPRush#106#17
Coverage DefCov#103#7

Rematch from Week 5
Ohio State 23.5 (48.5)
Ohio State won at Michigan State this year (38-7)

Previous Matchups
Ohio State beat Michigan State last year (38-7)
Ohio State beat Michigan State in 2023 (38-3)
Ohio State beat Michigan State in 2022 (49-20)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Spartan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: OSU | MSU
Depth Chart: OSU | MSU
Rosters: OSU | MSU
(#70) Michigan State Info
Power Rating: -0.955 #70
Offense Rating: 16.47 #101
Defense Rating: 10.30 #75
Overall SP+ Rating: -4.6 #90
Offense SP+ Rating: 18.0 #119
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #49
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 15 #31
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3.34 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Poor OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.06 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Awful Pass Def Success 45%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Michigan State has lost 1 straight
Michigan State has won 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 4 - 3 (1 - 6 - 0 vs Spread)

Michigan State Notes
(11/18) Even stats with Ill but killed, 2-13 3rd, No Rgame
(11/2) Rgame not good, awful vs IU. OL owned by IU
(10/29) Fr WR Marsh 3rd in CFB in tgts/Fr per game
(10/19) Big W (Iowa). 468 yds, 212 rush (5.3). Bowl?
(9/26) Most penalized P5 team at 92 ypg in wk 5
(9/23) Chiles 3 INT in rough L @ BC. Rgame poor
(9/18) Injuries are piling up at DB
(9/8) Chiles 363 yds @ MD, still TO prone. Run D great
(8/30) Run game awful LY, OL rebuild, UMass 1K RB
(7/30) 15 in 2 deep from Portal, QB Chiles (Oreg St)

Michigan State Highlights
Michigan State has a good run defense (#33)

Michigan State Deficiencies
Michigan State has a really bad Offense
Michigan State has a really bad Offense at Home
Michigan State Can Not Run the Ball (#59)
Michigan State throws a Lot of Interceptions (#60)
Michigan State offense is not Explosive (#95)
Michigan State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#127)
Michigan State offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#56)
Michigan State pass game is really bad (#77)
Michigan State gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#31)


  
Ohio State's OC Chip Kelly
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Will Howard (Tr)30942373%401035109.5
Devin Brown112055%114105.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Quinshon Judkins (Tr)1941060145.586
TreVeyon Henderson1441016107.166
Will Howard (Tr)10522672.219
James Peoples4919724.018
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeremiah Smith7613151517.370
Emeka Egbuka8110111012.568
Carnell Tate52733414.140
TreVeyon Henderson27284110.575

View Ohio State's Full Roster
Ohio State's DC Jim Knowles
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cody Simon11213707
Sonny Styles10011605
Caleb Downs (Tr)818116
Lathan Ransom759112
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
J.T. Tuimoloau61221353
Jack Sawyer599986
Cody Simon11213707
Sonny Styles10011605
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Davison Igbinosun452009
Jordan Hancock482118
Cody Simon11213707

Michigan State's OC Brian Lindgren
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Aidan Chiles (Tr)19232459%241513127.5
Tommy Schuster (Tr)202969%202007.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kay'Ron Adams13364924.963
Nathan Carter11649954.360
Aidan Chiles (Tr)9623432.426
Nick Marsh42305.811
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Nick Marsh41649315.877
Montorie Foster46588312.840
Jack Velling (Tr)36411111.434
Aziah Johnson16276217.352

View Michigan State's Full Roster
Michigan State's DC Joe Rossi
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Turner (Tr)6611341
Cal Haladay585101
Nikai Martinez (Tr)513012
Angelo Grose504102
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Khris Bogle378460
Jordan Turner (Tr)6611341
Anthony Jones (Tr)254250
Ken Talley62220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Charles Brantley272007
Edward Woods494123
Jordan Hall241012