South Alabama at Ohio - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 7th 2024 (6:00 PM EDT)
South Alabama -1.5 (55.5) (-120) Open: -1.5 | 56.5
Ohio 27 - South Alabama: 20

Jaguars (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Major Applewhite (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 34 - 25 (26 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: South Alabama -0 (SP+ USA -0.5)
Projected Score: USA: 29 - OHIO: 29 (57)
USA Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
USA Travel: 684 miles, 1 hrs behind

Bobcats (11 - 3) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Tim Albin (23 - 16)
Avg Score : 29 - 18 (34 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11 - 3 (#8)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
USA Players
OHIO Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

South Alabama's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	South Alabama vs North Texas	-6.0	61.5	L 38 - 52	O	N
Sat 9/7	South Alabama at Ohio	-1.5	55.5	L 20 - 27	U	N
Thu 9/12	South Alabama vs Northwestern State	-36.5	60.5	W 87 - 10	O	Y
Thu 9/19	South Alabama at App State	+8.0	62.5	W 48 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/28	South Alabama at LSU	+21.0	64.5	L 10 - 42	U	N
Sat 10/5	South Alabama at Arkansas State	-2.5	62.5	L 16 - 18	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/15	South Alabama vs Troy	-10.0	53.0	W 25 - 9	U	Y
Sat 10/26	South Alabama vs UL Monroe	-7.0	45.0	W 46 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/2	South Alabama vs Georgia Southern	-5.5	60.0	L 30 - 34	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	South Alabama at Louisiana	+6.5	60.0	W 24 - 22	U	Y
Sat 11/23	South Alabama at Southern Miss	-24.0	54.0	W 35 - 14	U	N
Fri 11/29	South Alabama vs Texas State	+2.5	60.5	L 38 - 45	O	N
Sat 12/14	South Alabama vs Western Michigan	-6.0	53.5	W 30 - 23	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for South Alabama's Schedule

Ohio's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Ohio at Syracuse	+17.5	47.5	L 22 - 38	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Ohio vs South Alabama	+1.5	55.5	W 27 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Ohio vs Morgan State	-24.5	45.5	W 21 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/21	Ohio at Kentucky	+19.0	42.0	L 6 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/28	Ohio vs Akron	-8.5	46.0	W 30 - 10	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Ohio at Central Michigan	-3.0	50.5	W 27 - 25	O	N
Sat 10/19	Ohio at Miami (OH)	+3.5	43.5	L 20 - 30	O	N
Sat 10/26	Ohio vs Buffalo	-4.0	46.5	W 47 - 16	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/6	Ohio at Kent State	-20.5	53.5	W 41 - 0	U	Y
Wed 11/13	Ohio vs Eastern Michigan	-10.5	51.5	W 35 - 10	U	Y
Wed 11/20	Ohio at Toledo	+1.5	47.0	W 24 - 7	U	Y
Fri 11/29	Ohio vs Ball State	-17.5	51.5	W 42 - 21	O	Y
Sat 12/7	Ohio vs Miami (OH)	+2.5	43.5	W 38 - 3	U	Y
Fri 12/20	Ohio vs Jacksonville State	-6.5	57.5	W 30 - 27	U	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USA	#5 (.34)	50% (9)	34.4	53% (4)	3.57 (6)	199	47% (18)	243	4.66 (13)	#58 (.15)	41% (58)	25.2	39% (28)	43% (96)	3.66 (56)	70.8	0.9	1.5
OHIO	#40 (.24)	46% (30)	29.3	47% (35)	3.1 (52)	214	45% (35)	193	4.15 (47)	#23 (.1)	37% (10)	18.1	34% (3)	40% (57)	3.79 (68)	44.9	1.6	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USA	#5 (.34)	50% (9)		53% (4)	3.57 (6)	199	47% (18)	243	4.66 (13)	#58 (.15)	41% (58)		39% (28)	43% (96)	3.66 (56)	70.8	0.9	1.5
OHIO	#40 (.24)	46% (30)		47% (35)	3.1 (52)	214	45% (35)	193	4.15 (47)	#23 (.1)	37% (10)		34% (3)	40% (57)	3.79 (68)	44.9	1.6	1.5

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USA Offense	13	34.4	25.5	49.8%	4.66	0.9	22	442	199	243	5.8	51%	49%	53%	47%	14%	.34
OHIO Defense	14	18.1	13.8	36.9%	3.79	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	45%	54%	34%	40%	20%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USA Defense	13	25.2	22.8	40.9%	3.66	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	48%	52%	39%	43%	16%	.15
OHIO Offense	14	29.3	33.7	45.8%	4.15	1.6	22	406	214	193	5.2	59%	41%	47%	45%	14%	.24

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
South Alabama	13	29:20	21.5	39%	68%	8.2	70.8	0.9	1.5	5.6	1.6	4	29.3
Ohio	14	32:43	21.9	48%	60%	5.5	44.9	1.6	1.5	6.3	2.5	3	27.9

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USA Offense	13	51% (67)	53% (4)	34.1	199.2	5.8	32 (14)	.33 (3)	3.57 (6)	82% (12)	10% (79)	1.06 (40)
OHIO Defense	14	45% (15)	34% (3)	-	-	-	-	-.03 (6)	2.49 (8)	74% (69)	13% (13)	1 (72)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USA Defense	13	48% (38)	39% (28)	-	-	-	-	.09 (53)	2.78 (32)	71% (51)	10% (78)	1.05 (98)
OHIO Offense	14	59% (13)	47% (35)	40.7	213.5	5.2	35 (8)	.24 (18)	3.1 (52)	78% (31)	9% (52)	1.12 (13)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USA Offense	13	49% (68)	47% (18)	19.5	30	243.2	8.1	12.5	21 (51)	6 (10)	.36 (27)	1.5 (101)	29% (27)	33% (49)	.48 (15)	4% (14)	2.2 (14)
OHIO Defense	14	54% (121)	40% (57)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (52)	.22 (60)	1.5 (53)	35% (22)	24% (2)	.18 (19)	7% (40)	2.2 (107)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USA Defense	13	52% (98)	43% (96)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (10)	.24 (73)	1.5 (32)	32% (69)	30% (55)	.15 (8)	6% (59)	1.7 (5)
OHIO Offense	14	41% (119)	45% (35)	15.5	24.7	192.5	7.8	12.4	15 (98)	12 (85)	.23 (80)	1.4 (128)	29% (32)	37% (13)	.45 (23)	5% (43)	1.8 (120)

South Alabama's Power Ratings
South Alabama's Power Rating: -3.64 #76
South Alabama's Offense Rating: 25.69 #16
South Alabama's Defense Rating: 10.70 #78
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
South Alabama's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
South Alabama's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.8 #61
South Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #47
South Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.9 #71

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: -3.64 Ohio: -0.48

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: 2.8 Ohio: 2.3

Ohio's Power Ratings
Ohio's Power Rating: -0.48 #93
Ohio's Offense Rating: 19.85 #68
Ohio's Defense Rating: 8.89 #63
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Ohio's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0
Ohio's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.3 #63
Ohio's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #67
Ohio's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.9 #47

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

South Alabama Scoring
Offense: 34.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.5
Defense: 25.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.8

South Alabama's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
South Alabama 29
Ohio 29

Total Points: 57

Based on Last 4 Games
Ohio 36
South Alabama 31

Total Points: 67

Based on Entire Season
Ohio 28
South Alabama 23

Total Points: 51

Ohio Scoring
Offense: 29.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.7
Defense: 18.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 13.8

Ohio's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/07	Ohio	27	South Alabama	20	South Alabama -1.5	Ohio	55.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Ohio	1	1	0 Overs
South Alabama	0	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0

(#76) USA at (#93) OHIO

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USA	OHIO
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#76	#93
SP+SP+	#61	#63
Perf GradeGrade	#59	#64
OffenseOff	#61	#76
DefenseDef	#65	#59
Spec TeamsST	#111	#81
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#102

South Alabama Notes(12/15) Rgame 267/7.2 ypc in bowl W over WMU
(12/15) Great QB depth, backup Davenport can run/throw
(11/29) Def torched, gave up 3 TOs, OG'd by 160 by T St
(11/25) Rgame good, Lopez 3 TD over awful So Miss
(11/18) Huge W @ ULL, QB good, Def barely held on
(11/3) 450+ yds but 2 TOs cost badly in GaSo loss
(10/27) Rgame great (ULM), 358 yds, 7.8 ypc. Run D bad
(10/16) Avg 17 ppg last 3 games, stopped Troy, NBD
(10/4) Off great, Def v bad. High totals keep going under
(9/19) QB Lopez dynamic, FR RB Bothwell is a weapon
(9/8) QB Lopez (toe) DNP in L at Ohio
(9/8) Bad Ls vs N Tex & Ohio. QBs OK, D bad so far
South Alabama Injury Report

Ohio Notes(12/18) Promoted OC Brian Smith to HC
(12/8) HC Albin left for Charlotte after MAC title?
(11/29) Killed Ball St, in MAC title. Rgame 270/6.6 ypc
(11/29) Pass Def bad vs Ball St, 333 yds, 3 TD, 0 Int
(11/25) 4 str W's, bullied Toledo. Beat Ball St=MAC title
(11/18) 3 str W's, Killed EMU, Off good enough, Def good
(11/8) Rgame mauled Kent, Run Def/Pass Def great TW
(10/20) 2 Int, no Off for 3 quarters vs M-OH. Rgame bad
(10/13) Rgame 277 yds, 7.5 ypc, Def enough W CMU
(10/4) Off runs a lot/meh success, pass little/good suc?
(9/8) 200 yds rush in W (S Al). QB Navarro JAG
(9/1) Game vs Cuse, 255 yds rush (6.5 ypc), QB can't pass
Ohio Injury Report

South Alabama on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	USA Off	OHIO Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#61	#59
SuccessSuc	#9	#10
ExplosiveExp	#76	#92
PPAPPA	#5	#23
PowerPwr	#16	#63
SP+SP+	#47	#47
Pts POPPO	#13	#68
HavocHav	#39	#14

South Alabama Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	USA Off	OHIO Def
Run GameRun	#3	#79
Run SuccessRSuc	#4	#3
Run ExplRExp	#40	#72
PPAExp	#3	#6
Run BlockR Blk	#119	-
OL YdsOLY	#6	#8
Stuff RateStuff	#18	#13
TackleTak	-	#123

South Alabama Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	USA Off	OHIO Def
Pass GamePass	#84	#64
Pass SuccessPSuc	#18	#57
Pass ExplPExl	#101	#53
PPAExp	#27	#60
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#39	#26
F7 HavocF7	#79	#13
DB HavocDB	#14	#40

Ohio on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	OHIO Off	USA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#76	#65
SuccessSuc	#30	#58
ExplosiveExp	#92	#80
PPAPPA	#40	#58
PowerPwr	#68	#78
SP+SP+	#67	#71
Pts POPPO	#47	#56
HavocHav	#42	#70

Ohio Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	OHIO Off	USA Def
Run GameRun	#65	#45
Run SuccessRSuc	#35	#28
Run ExplRExp	#13	#98
PPAExp	#18	#53
Run BlockR Blk	#55	-
OL YdsOLY	#52	#32
Stuff RateStuff	#61	#85
TackleTak	-	#118

Ohio Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	OHIO Off	USA Def
Pass GamePass	#68	#50
Pass SuccessPSuc	#35	#96
Pass ExplPExl	#128	#32
PPAExp	#80	#73
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#118	#109
F7 HavocF7	#52	#78
DB HavocDB	#43	#59

Program Comparison
OHIO 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'24 Profile: Remains Top G5

USA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'24 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Peden Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 68° - Wind: 6 mph

Rematch from Week 2
South Alabama 1.5 (55.5)
Ohio won vs South Alabama this year (27-20)

Previous Matchups
Ohio beat South Alabama last year (27-20)

USA's OC Rob Ezell (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Giovanni Lopez	205	311	66%	2557	18	5	8.2
Bishop Davenport	48	79	61%	604	3	1	7.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Fluff Bothwell	112	834	13	7.4	59
Kentrel Bullock	152	832	7	5.5	59
Giovanni Lopez	82	465	7	5.7	50
Bishop Davenport	37	161	1	4.4	50

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jamaal Pritchett	91	1126	9	12.4	75
Jeremiah Webb	36	649	5	18.0	52
Devin Voisin	34	407	0	12.0	28
Shamar Sandgren	19	208	1	10.9	21

View South Alabama's Full Roster

USA's DC Will Windham (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Blayne Myrick	101	8	2	3	2
Jaden Voisin	84	4	0	3	5
Darius McKenzie (Tr)	72	4	1	0	4
Jordan Scruggs	70	5	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Courtney McBride	39	11	5	3	0
Parker Shattuck	11	3	3	0	1
Tyler Thomas	19	4	3	0	0
Jordan Norman	25	4	3	2	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Amarion Fortenberry	43	2	0	0	6
Jaden Voisin	84	4	0	3	5
Darius McKenzie (Tr)	72	4	1	0	4

OHIO's OC Brian Smith (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Parker Navarro	195	295	66%	2423	13	11	8.2
Nick Poulos	22	49	45%	271	2	1	5.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Anthony Tyus III (Tr)	237	1215	9	5.1	46
Parker Navarro	160	1047	18	6.5	55
Rickey Hunt	76	393	2	5.2	59
Nick Poulos	28	149	1	5.3	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Coleman Owen (Tr)	78	1235	8	15.8	75
Chase Hendricks	40	471	1	11.8	56
Rodney Harris II	23	299	0	13.0	52
Mason Williams	19	211	2	11.1	21

View Ohio's Full Roster

OHIO's DC John Hauser (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Blake Leake (Tr)	94	5	1	1	3
Dustin Johnson (Tr)	77	2	0	0	4
Shay Taylor	74	11	4	3	4
Marcel Walker (Tr)	56	8	6	7	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bradley Weaver	44	16	9	10	0
Marcel Walker (Tr)	56	8	6	7	2
Shay Taylor	74	11	4	3	4
Kadin Schmitz	32	4	4	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Roman Parodie	51	0	10
DJ Walker	53	7	7
Tank Pearson	50	2	6