Ohio at Kentucky - 2024 Matchup Preview
Ohio logo Ohio Bobcats at Kentucky WildcatsKentucky logo
Saturday, September 21st 2024 (12:45 PM EDT)
Kentucky -19.0 (42.0) (-1200)  Open: -18.5 | 42.5
Kentucky 41 - Ohio: 6

 
Bobcats (11 - 3) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Tim Albin (23 - 16)
Avg Score : 29 - 18 (23 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11 - 3 (#8)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
UK 4th straight Home Game
UK is playing their 4th straight game
OHIO is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Kentucky -9.5   (SP+ UK -3)

Projected Score: OHIO: 17 - UK: 26 (43)
UK Win prob: 91% | Cover: 51%
OHIO Travel: 158 miles
Wildcats (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mark Stoops (73 - 65)
Avg Score : 21 - 22 (22 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Ohio's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Ohio at Syracuse+17.547.5L 22 - 38OY
Sat 9/7 Ohio vs South Alabama+1.555.5W 27 - 20UY
Sat 9/14 Ohio vs Morgan State-24.545.5W 21 - 6UN
Sat 9/21 Ohio at Kentucky+19.042.0L 6 - 41ON
Sat 9/28 Ohio vs Akron-8.546.0W 30 - 10UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Ohio at Central Michigan-3.050.5W 27 - 25ON
Sat 10/19 Ohio at Miami (OH)+3.543.5L 20 - 30ON
Sat 10/26 Ohio vs Buffalo-4.046.5W 47 - 16OY
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/6 Ohio at Kent State-20.553.5W 41 - 0UY
Wed 11/13 Ohio vs Eastern Michigan-10.551.5W 35 - 10UY
Wed 11/20 Ohio at Toledo+1.547.0W 24 - 7UY
Fri 11/29 Ohio vs Ball State-17.551.5W 42 - 21OY
Sat 12/7 Ohio vs Miami (OH)+2.543.5W 38 - 3UY
Fri 12/20 Ohio vs Jacksonville State-6.557.5W 30 - 27UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Ohio's Schedule
Kentucky's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Kentucky vs Southern Miss-25.550.5W 31 - 0UY
Sat 9/7 Kentucky vs South Carolina-9.541.5L 6 - 31UN
Sat 9/14 Kentucky vs Georgia+24.045.0L 12 - 13UY
Sat 9/21 Kentucky vs Ohio-19.042.0W 41 - 6OY
Sat 9/28 Kentucky at Ole Miss+15.051.5W 20 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Kentucky vs Vanderbilt-12.544.5L 13 - 20UN
Sat 10/19 Kentucky at Florida-2.542.5L 20 - 48ON
Sat 10/26 Kentucky vs Auburn-2.043.5L 10 - 24UN
Sat 11/2 Kentucky at Tennessee+17.545.5L 18 - 28OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Kentucky vs Murray State-41.554.5W 48 - 6UY
Sat 11/23 Kentucky at Texas+18.547.0L 14 - 31UY
Sat 11/30 Kentucky vs Louisville+3.548.5L 14 - 41ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Kentucky's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
OHIO#40 (.24)46% (30)29.347% (35)3.1 (52)21445% (35)1934.15 (47)#23 (.1)37% (10)18.134% (3)40% (57)3.79 (68)44.91.61.5
UK#118 (.09)41% (89)20.647% (31)3.02 (71)14635% (123)1853.49 (104)#62 (.16)46% (111)22.149% (122)42% (75)3.44 (31)52.11.91.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
OHIO#40 (.24)46% (30)47% (35)3.1 (52)21445% (35)1934.15 (47)#23 (.1)37% (10)34% (3)40% (57)3.79 (68)44.91.61.5
UK#118 (.09)41% (89)47% (31)3.02 (71)14635% (123)1853.49 (104)#62 (.16)46% (111)49% (122)42% (75)3.44 (31)52.11.91.3



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
OHIO Offense1429.323.345.8%4.151.6224062141935.259%41%47%45%14%.24
UK Defense1222.117.646%3.441.3 - - - - - 58%42%49%42%17%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
OHIO Defense1418.123.536.9%3.791.5 - - - - - 45%54%34%40%20%.1
UK Offense1220.621.941.5%3.491.919331146185454%46%47%35%19%.09

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Ohio1432:4321.948%60%5.544.91.61.56.32.5327.9
Kentucky1229:3219.434%44%6.352.11.91.35.61.8227
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
OHIO Offense1459% (13)47% (35)40.7213.55.235 (8).24 (18)3.1 (52)78% (31)9% (52)1.12 (13)
UK Defense1258% (129)49% (122) - - - - .14 (75)3 (67)78% (101)12% (32)0.88 (24)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
OHIO Defense1445% (15)34% (3) - - - - -.03 (6)2.49 (8)74% (69)13% (13)1 (72)
UK Offense1254% (37)47% (31)36.7146.4411 (116).05 (107)3.02 (71)73% (71)13% (120)0.73 (133)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
OHIO Offense1441% (119)45% (35)15.524.7192.57.812.415 (98)12 (85).23 (80)1.4 (128)29% (32)37% (13).45 (23)5% (43)1.8 (120)
UK Defense1242% (7)42% (75) - - - - - - 10 (66).19 (46)1.5 (27)29% (109)31% (83).3 (68)5% (95)2 (61)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
OHIO Defense1454% (121)40% (57) - - - - - - 11 (52).22 (60)1.5 (53)35% (22)24% (2).18 (19)7% (40)2.2 (107)
UK Offense1246% (97)35% (123)13.926184.87.113.315 (98)17 (127).13 (117)1.9 (10)33% (92)28% (104).18 (114)7% (103)2.1 (46)

Ohio's Power Ratings
Ohio's Power Rating: -8.26 #93
Ohio's Offense Rating: 19.85 #68
Ohio's Defense Rating: 8.89 #63
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Ohio's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0
Ohio's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.3 #63
Ohio's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #67
Ohio's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.9 #47

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Ohio: -8.26   Kentucky: 6.32

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ohio: 2.3   Kentucky: 5.5




Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 6.32 #54
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 16.88 #96
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 8.88 #62
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 28 #21
Kentucky's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Kentucky's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.5 #45
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #88
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #26

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Ohio Scoring
Offense: 29.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.3
Defense: 18.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.5

Ohio's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 5 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Kentucky 26
Ohio 17


Total Points: 43

Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 20.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.9
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.6

Kentucky's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/21Kentucky41Ohio6KentuckyKentucky -19.0Kentucky42.0Over
201409/06Kentucky20Ohio3KentuckyKentucky -6Kentucky0
200410/02Kentucky16Ohio28Ohio
200310/18Kentucky35Ohio14Kentucky
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Kentucky321 Overs
Ohio100 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 12 - 02 - 00 - 0
Road Teams1 - 30 - 20 - 00 - 2

(#93) Ohio Info
Power Rating: -8.26 #93
Offense Rating: 19.85 #68
Defense Rating: 8.89 #63
Overall SP+ Rating: 2.3 #63
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #67
Defense SP+ Rating: 23.9 #47
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0

Team Profile
Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
Good Offense Success Rate of 46%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.15 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Good Pass Success 45%
Bad OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 37%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.79 PPO
Great Run Def Success 34%
Avg Pass Def Success 40%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Ohio has won 2 straight
Ohio has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 5 - 3 (3 - 3 - 0 vs Spread )

Ohio Notes
(12/8) HC Albin left for Charlotte after MAC title?
(11/29) Killed Ball St, in MAC title. Rgame 270/6.6 ypc
(11/29) Pass Def bad vs Ball St, 333 yds, 3 TD, 0 Int
(11/25) 4 str W's, bullied Toledo. Beat Ball St=MAC title
(11/18) 3 str W's, Killed EMU, Off good enough, Def good
(11/8) Rgame mauled Kent, Run Def/Pass Def great TW
(10/20) 2 Int, no Off for 3 quarters vs M-OH. Rgame bad
(10/13) Rgame 277 yds, 7.5 ypc, Def enough W CMU
(10/4) Off runs a lot/meh success, pass little/good suc?
(9/8) 200 yds rush in W (S Al). QB Navarro JAG

Ohio Highlights
Ohio has Really Good Running Game (#71)
Ohio offense is efficent (#122)
Ohio offense is good on 3rd downs
Ohio Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Ohio has a really good defense (#112)
Ohio has a good run defense (#86)
Ohio Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#46)
Ohio Defensive Line is very good (#61)
Ohio Front 7 is disruptive (#105)

Ohio Deficiencies
Ohio has a bad TO Margin (#54)
Ohio Fumbles a Lot (#1)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatUKOHIO
OverallOver#58#45
OffenseOff#76#61
DefenseDef#57#43
Special TeamsST#28#68
PassingPass#90#53
RushingRush#21#46
Run BlockRBLK#70#44
Pass BlockPBLK#100#102
Route RunningWR Rt#55#48
TacklingTkl#90#107
Run DefenseR Def#90#62
Pass Rush DefPRush#21#24
Coverage DefCov#44#52

Rematch from Week 4
Kentucky -19.0 (42.0)
Kentucky won vs Ohio this year (41-6)

Previous Matchups
Kentucky beat Ohio last year (41-6)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Commonwealth Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: OHIO | UK
Depth Chart: OHIO | UK
Rosters: OHIO | UK
(#54) Kentucky Info
Power Rating: 6.32 #54
Offense Rating: 16.88 #96
Defense Rating: 8.88 #62
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.5 #45
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #88
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #26
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 28 #21
Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.49 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Awful Pass Success 35%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 46%
Good in Scoring Position 3.44 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 49%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Kentucky has lost 2 straight
Kentucky has lost 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 3 - 5 (4 - 4 - 0 vs Spread)

Kentucky Notes
(10/30) UK on quit watch, bad body language past 2 L's
(10/27) Off broken, Haven't scored 21 pts in any SEC game
(10/16) Into UF wk, Stoops 5-8 in last 13 games
(10/13) Bad L (Vandy). Def good, QB v bad, Rgame Ok.
(9/28) Great W over Ole Miss. Rgame stopped, Pass good
(9/28) Run Def is great. Held Ole Miss 92 yds (3.2 ypc)
(9/15) OL/DL great vs UGA. Def good, Off bad, QB bad
(9/9) W/O OC Coen UKs Off has regressed badly twice
(9/8) 44 yds pass, 2 Int in bad L vs S Car. Rgame bad
(9/1) Def perfect vs S Miss. Eff off, QB Brock good start

Kentucky Highlights
Kentucky defense does not give up big plays (#89)

Kentucky Deficiencies
Kentucky has a really bad Offense
Kentucky has a bad TO Margin (#28)
Kentucky throws a Lot of Interceptions (#23)
Kentucky offense is not Explosive (#92)
Kentucky offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#60)
Kentucky pass game is really bad (#130)
Kentucky offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Kentucky has a bad defense (#70)


  
Ohio's OC Brian Smith
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Parker Navarro19529566%242313118.2
Nick Poulos224945%271215.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Anthony Tyus III (Tr)237121595.146
Parker Navarro1601047186.555
Rickey Hunt7639325.259
Nick Poulos2814915.322
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Coleman Owen (Tr)781235815.875
Chase Hendricks40471111.856
Rodney Harris II23299013.052
Mason Williams19211211.121

View Ohio's Full Roster
Ohio's DC John Hauser
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Blake Leake (Tr)945113
Dustin Johnson (Tr)772004
Shay Taylor7411434
Marcel Walker (Tr)568672
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bradley Weaver44169100
Marcel Walker (Tr)568672
Shay Taylor7411434
Kadin Schmitz324400
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Roman Parodie5100010
DJ Walker537007
Tank Pearson502006

Kentucky's OC Bush Hamdan
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brock Vandagriff (Tr)12521857%15931087.3
Cutter Boley265349%338246.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jamarion Wilcox9259026.450
Demie Sumo12958654.522
Gavin Wimsatt (Tr)4918323.724
Brock Vandagriff (Tr)9013101.522
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Dane Key47715215.242
Barion Brown29361312.463
Jay Maclin13313424.183
Demie Sumo2015407.718

View Kentucky's Full Roster
Kentucky's DC Brad White
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamon Dumas-Johnson (Tr)677410
Jordan Lovett631001
Alex Afari Jr.6211211
Zion Childress556162
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
J.J. Weaver317441
Jamon Dumas-Johnson (Tr)677410
Tre'Vonn Rybka345321
Octavious Oxendine205330
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Terhyon Nichols100005
Maxwell Hairston191104
J.Q. Hardaway470003