Ohio at Kentucky - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 21st 2024 (12:45 PM EDT)
Kentucky -19.0 (42.0) (-1200) Open: -18.5 | 42.5
Kentucky 41 - Ohio: 6

Bobcats (11 - 3) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Tim Albin (23 - 16)
Avg Score : 29 - 18 (23 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11 - 3 (#8)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Rain Shower Predicted
UK 4th straight Home Game
UK is playing their 4th straight game
OHIO is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Kentucky -9.5 (SP+ UK -3)
Projected Score: OHIO: 17 - UK: 26 (45)
UK Win prob: 91% | Cover: 51%
OHIO Travel: 158 miles

Wildcats (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mark Stoops (73 - 65)
Avg Score : 21 - 22 (22 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
OHIO Players
UK Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Ohio's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Ohio at Syracuse	+17.5	47.5	L 22 - 38	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Ohio vs South Alabama	+1.5	55.5	W 27 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Ohio vs Morgan State	-24.5	45.5	W 21 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/21	Ohio at Kentucky	+19.0	42.0	L 6 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/28	Ohio vs Akron	-8.5	46.0	W 30 - 10	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Ohio at Central Michigan	-3.0	50.5	W 27 - 25	O	N
Sat 10/19	Ohio at Miami (OH)	+3.5	43.5	L 20 - 30	O	N
Sat 10/26	Ohio vs Buffalo	-4.0	46.5	W 47 - 16	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/6	Ohio at Kent State	-20.5	53.5	W 41 - 0	U	Y
Wed 11/13	Ohio vs Eastern Michigan	-10.5	51.5	W 35 - 10	U	Y
Wed 11/20	Ohio at Toledo	+1.5	47.0	W 24 - 7	U	Y
Fri 11/29	Ohio vs Ball State	-17.5	51.5	W 42 - 21	O	Y
Sat 12/7	Ohio vs Miami (OH)	+2.5	43.5	W 38 - 3	U	Y
Fri 12/20	Ohio vs Jacksonville State	-6.5	57.5	W 30 - 27	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Ohio's Schedule

Kentucky's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Kentucky vs Southern Miss	-25.5	50.5	W 31 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Kentucky vs South Carolina	-9.5	41.5	L 6 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/14	Kentucky vs Georgia	+24.0	45.0	L 12 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Kentucky vs Ohio	-19.0	42.0	W 41 - 6	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Kentucky at Ole Miss	+15.0	51.5	W 20 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Kentucky vs Vanderbilt	-12.5	44.5	L 13 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/19	Kentucky at Florida	-2.5	42.5	L 20 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/26	Kentucky vs Auburn	-2.0	43.5	L 10 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/2	Kentucky at Tennessee	+17.5	45.5	L 18 - 28	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Kentucky vs Murray State	-41.5	54.5	W 48 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Kentucky at Texas	+18.5	47.0	L 14 - 31	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Kentucky vs Louisville	+3.5	48.5	L 14 - 41	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
OHIO	#76 (.18)	45% (33)	29.3	44% (61)	2.99 (90)	144	48% (17)	204	3.61 (92)	#3 (.02)	35% (8)	18.1	35% (9)	36% (12)	2.45 (2)	51.8	1	1.8
UK	#49 (.22)	40% (93)	20.6	41% (88)	2.79 (118)	128	40% (83)	212	4.46 (23)	#50 (.16)	43% (87)	22.1	42% (56)	45% (116)	3.95 (84)	50.8	1.5	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
OHIO		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UK		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
OHIO Offense	13	29.3	23.3	45.2%	3.61	1	21	348	144	204	3.9	52%	47%	44%	48%	15%	.18
UK Defense	13	22.1	17.6	43.3%	3.95	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	48%	51%	42%	45%	14%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
OHIO Defense	13	18.1	23.5	35%	2.45	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	44%	54%	35%	36%	21%	.02
UK Offense	13	20.6	21.9	40%	4.46	1.5	17	339	128	212	4.9	43%	55%	41%	40%	18%	.22

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Ohio	13	33:23	20.8	46%	50%	5.6	51.8	1	1.8	7.4	2.8	1	31.2
Kentucky	13	27:34	16.9	38%	20%	6.1	50.8	1.5	1.4	5.5	2	6	29.3

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
OHIO Offense	13	52% (46)	44% (61)	37.3	144.4	3.9	18 (77)	.1 (95)	2.99 (90)	73% (75)	9% (39)	0.81 (131)
UK Defense	13	48% (46)	42% (56)	-	-	-	-	.1 (40)	2.87 (29)	70% (48)	10% (75)	0.87 (18)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
OHIO Defense	13	44% (10)	35% (9)	-	-	-	-	-.06 (3)	2.54 (8)	70% (47)	15% (3)	1.07 (101)
UK Offense	13	43% (108)	41% (88)	26.1	127.7	4.9	18 (77)	.15 (71)	2.79 (118)	68% (106)	11% (79)	1.12 (17)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
OHIO Offense	13	47% (91)	48% (17)	18.4	29.5	203.6	6.9	11.1	16 (92)	9 (40)	.31 (57)	1.4 (123)	30% (31)	35% (30)	.32 (72)	6% (84)	1.7 (131)
UK Defense	13	51% (92)	45% (116)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.23 (45)	1.4 (11)	31% (76)	30% (70)	.39 (104)	5% (114)	2.1 (75)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
OHIO Defense	13	54% (123)	36% (12)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (15)	.14 (14)	1.5 (30)	36% (15)	23% (5)	.19 (15)	5% (94)	1.9 (27)
UK Offense	13	55% (26)	40% (83)	16.2	28.8	211.6	7.4	13	25 (37)	11 (68)	.32 (54)	1.7 (25)	35% (114)	28% (88)	.31 (77)	8% (113)	2.2 (19)

Ohio's Power Ratings
Ohio's Power Rating: -8.26 #93
Ohio's Offense Rating: 19.85 #68
Ohio's Defense Rating: 8.89 #63
2024 Talent Rating: 376.00 #122
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Ohio's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0
Ohio's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.3 #63
Ohio's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #67
Ohio's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.9 #47

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 514.62
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Ohio: -8.26 Kentucky: 6.32

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ohio: 2.3 Kentucky: 5.5

Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 6.32 #54
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 16.88 #96
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 8.88 #62
2024 Talent Rating: 830.00 #26
Blue Chip Ratio: 28 #21
Kentucky's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Kentucky's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.5 #45
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #88
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #26

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 901
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Ohio Scoring
Offense: 29.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.3
Defense: 18.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.5

Ohio's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 5 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Kentucky 26
Ohio 17

Projected Total Points: 45

Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 20.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.9
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.6

Kentucky's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/21	Kentucky	41	Ohio	6	Kentucky	Kentucky -19.0	Kentucky	42.0	Over
2014	09/06	Kentucky	20	Ohio	3	Kentucky	Kentucky -6	Kentucky	0
2004	10/02	Kentucky	16	Ohio	28	Ohio
2003	10/18	Kentucky	35	Ohio	14	Kentucky

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Kentucky	3	2	1 Overs
Ohio	1	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 1	2 - 0	2 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 3	0 - 2	0 - 0	0 - 2

(#93) Ohio Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -8.26 #93
Offense Rating: 19.85 #68
Defense Rating: 8.89 #63
Overall SP+ Rating: 2.3 #63
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #67
Defense SP+ Rating: 23.9 #47
Talent Rating: 376.00 #122
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0

Team Profile
Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
Good Offense Success Rate of 46%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.15 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Good Pass Success 45%
Bad OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 37%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.79 PPO
Great Run Def Success 34%
Avg Pass Def Success 40%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Ohio Notes
(12/8) HC Albin left for Charlotte after MAC title?
(11/29) Killed Ball St, in MAC title. Rgame 270/6.6 ypc
(11/29) Pass Def bad vs Ball St, 333 yds, 3 TD, 0 Int
(11/25) 4 str W's, bullied Toledo. Beat Ball St=MAC title
(11/18) 3 str W's, Killed EMU, Off good enough, Def good
(11/8) Rgame mauled Kent, Run Def/Pass Def great TW
(10/20) 2 Int, no Off for 3 quarters vs M-OH. Rgame bad
(10/13) Rgame 277 yds, 7.5 ypc, Def enough W CMU
(10/4) Off runs a lot/meh success, pass little/good suc?
(9/8) 200 yds rush in W (S Al). QB Navarro JAG

Ohio Ratings Matchup Kentucky

Power #93

#54

Off #68

#96

Def #63

#62

Talent #122

#26

SP+ #63

#45

SP+ Off #67

#88

SP+ Def #47

#26

Rematch from Week 4
Kentucky -19.0 (42.0)
Kentucky won vs Ohio this year (41-6)

Previous Matchups
Kentucky beat Ohio last year (41-6)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Commonwealth Stadium
Conditions: Rain Shower
Temp: 87° - Wind: 8 mph
Rain: 0.004

Team Information
Injuries: OHIO | UK
Depth Chart: OHIO | UK
Rosters: OHIO | UK

(#54) Kentucky Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 6.32 #54
Offense Rating: 16.88 #96
Defense Rating: 8.88 #62
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.5 #45
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #88
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #26
Talent Rating: 830.00 #26
Blue Chip Ratio: 28 #21
Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.49 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Awful Pass Success 35%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 46%
Good in Scoring Position 3.44 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 49%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Kentucky Notes
(10/30) UK on quit watch, bad body language past 2 L's
(10/27) Off broken, Haven't scored 21 pts in any SEC game
(10/16) Into UF wk, Stoops 5-8 in last 13 games
(10/13) Bad L (Vandy). Def good, QB v bad, Rgame Ok.
(9/28) Great W over Ole Miss. Rgame stopped, Pass good
(9/28) Run Def is great. Held Ole Miss 92 yds (3.2 ypc)
(9/15) OL/DL great vs UGA. Def good, Off bad, QB bad
(9/9) W/O OC Coen UKs Off has regressed badly twice
(9/8) 44 yds pass, 2 Int in bad L vs S Car. Rgame bad
(9/1) Def perfect vs S Miss. Eff off, QB Brock good start

Ohio's OC Brian Smith

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Parker Navarro	195	295	66%	2423	13	11	8.2
Nick Poulos	22	49	45%	271	2	1	5.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Anthony Tyus III (Tr)	237	1215	9	5.1	46
Parker Navarro	160	1047	18	6.5	55
Rickey Hunt	76	393	2	5.2	59
Nick Poulos	28	149	1	5.3	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Coleman Owen (Tr)	78	1235	8	15.8	75
Chase Hendricks	40	471	1	11.8	56
Rodney Harris II	23	299	0	13.0	52
Mason Williams	19	211	2	11.1	21

View Ohio's Full Roster

Ohio's DC John Hauser

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Blake Leake (Tr)	94	5	1	1	3
Dustin Johnson (Tr)	77	2	0	0	4
Shay Taylor	74	11	4	3	4
Marcel Walker (Tr)	56	8	6	7	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bradley Weaver	44	16	9	10	0
Marcel Walker (Tr)	56	8	6	7	2
Shay Taylor	74	11	4	3	4
Kadin Schmitz	32	4	4	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
DJ Walker	53	7	0	0	7
Tank Pearson	50	2	0	0	6
Shay Taylor	74	11	4	3	4

Kentucky's OC Bush Hamdan

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brock Vandagriff (Tr)	125	218	57%	1593	10	8	7.3
Cutter Boley	26	53	49%	338	2	4	6.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jamarion Wilcox	92	590	2	6.4	50
Gavin Wimsatt (Tr)	49	183	2	3.7	24
Brock Vandagriff (Tr)	90	131	0	1.5	22
Jason Patterson	20	111	0	5.6	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dane Key	47	715	2	15.2	42
Barion Brown	29	361	3	12.4	63
Jay Maclin	13	313	4	24.1	83
Hardley Gilmore IV	6	153	1	25.5	52

View Kentucky's Full Roster

Kentucky's DC Brad White

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jamon Dumas-Johnson (Tr)	67	7	4	1	0
Jordan Lovett	63	1	0	0	1
Alex Afari Jr.	62	11	2	1	1
J.Q. Hardaway	47	0	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jamon Dumas-Johnson (Tr)	67	7	4	1	0
Alex Afari Jr.	62	11	2	1	1
Keeshawn Silver	26	1	1	2	0
Steven Soles Jr.	5	2	1	1	0

Pass D	Tack	PD
Terhyon Nichols	10	5
J.Q. Hardaway	47	3
DJ Waller Jr. (Tr)	13	2