Old Dominion at Georgia State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Old Dominion Monarchs at Georgia State Panthers

Saturday, October 12th 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
Georgia State -3 (53.0) (-135) Open: 0.0
Old Dominion 21 - Georgia State: 14 (Sun Belt)

Monarchs (5 - 7) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Ricky Rahne (15 - 23)
Avg Score : 32 - 19 (31 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ODU 3rd straight Road Game
GAST coming off BYE
Our Line: Old Dominion -12.5 (SP+ ODU -12)
Projected Score: ODU: 33 - GAST: 21 (54)
GAST Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
ODU Travel: 505 miles

Panthers (3 - 9) (3 - 8 - 1)
Coach Dell McGee (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 20 - 38 (22 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ODU Players
GAST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Old Dominion's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Old Dominion at South Carolina	+20.5	49.5	L 19 - 23	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Old Dominion vs East Carolina	-1.5	53.5	L 14 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/14	Old Dominion vs Virginia Tech	+15.5	47.5	L 17 - 37	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Old Dominion at Bowling Green	+11.0	51.5	W 30 - 27	O	Y
Sat 10/5	Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina	+4.0	51.5	L 37 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/12	Old Dominion at Georgia State	+3.0	53.0	W 21 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Old Dominion vs Texas State	+10.5	60.0	W 24 - 14	U	Y
Thu 10/24	Old Dominion vs Georgia Southern	+1.0	52.0	W 47 - 19	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Old Dominion at App State	-2.5	58.0	L 20 - 28	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Old Dominion vs James Madison	+1.5	51.0	L 32 - 35	O	N
Sat 11/23	Old Dominion vs Marshall	-3.0	51.0	L 35 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/30	Old Dominion at Arkansas State	-5.5	58.5	W 40 - 32	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Old Dominion's Schedule

Georgia State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Georgia State at Georgia Tech	+20.5	57.0	L 12 - 35	U	N
Sat 9/7	Georgia State vs Chattanooga	-9.5	51.5	W 24 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/14	Georgia State vs Vanderbilt	+8.5	45.5	W 36 - 32	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Georgia State vs Georgia Southern	-3.5	57.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Georgia State vs Old Dominion	-3.0	53.0	L 14 - 21	U	N
Thu 10/17	Georgia State at Marshall	+9.5	51.5	L 20 - 35	O	N
Sat 10/26	Georgia State at App State	+7.5	59.0	L 26 - 33	U	Y
Fri 11/1	Georgia State at UConn	+7.0	48.0	L 27 - 34	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Georgia State at James Madison	+14.5	53.5	L 7 - 38	U	N
Sat 11/16	Georgia State vs Arkansas State	-2.5	60.0	L 20 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/23	Georgia State at Texas State	+23.0	59.5	W 52 - 44	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Georgia State vs Coastal Carolina	-0.5	52.5	L 27 - 48	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ODU	#102 (.13)	38% (109)	32	41% (92)	3.08 (76)	154	37% (107)	195	3.14 (117)	#30 (.13)	44% (100)	18.5	42% (60)	47% (124)	3.49 (46)	60.6	1.4	1.6
GAST	#68 (.19)	42% (72)	19.8	40% (105)	2.84 (112)	188	44% (41)	206	3.92 (65)	#94 (.22)	42% (68)	37.8	40% (43)	45% (111)	3.95 (83)	57.5	1.2	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ODU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
GAST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ODU Offense	13	32	31	38.5%	3.14	1.4	17	348	154	195	4.2	50%	49%	41%	37%	20%	.13
GAST Defense	13	37.8	30.3	42.1%	3.95	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	40%	45%	15%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ODU Defense	13	18.5	30	44.1%	3.49	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	42%	47%	17%	.13
GAST Offense	13	19.8	21.5	41.6%	3.92	1.2	20	394	188	206	4.8	55%	44%	40%	44%	15%	.19

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Old Dominion	13	24:49	16.5	37%	27%	6.5	60.6	1.4	1.6	6.1	1.5	2	29.1
Georgia State	13	29:26	19.5	46%	47%	6.4	57.5	1.2	1.3	5.5	2	2	29.1

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ODU Offense	13	50% (70)	41% (92)	36.5	153.5	4.2	15 (100)	.17 (58)	3.08 (76)	62% (127)	15% (131)	1.18 (4)
GAST Defense	13	47% (25)	40% (43)	-	-	-	-	.15 (72)	3.05 (56)	63% (19)	10% (63)	1.06 (95)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ODU Defense	13	52% (98)	42% (60)	-	-	-	-	-.01 (11)	2.81 (22)	70% (50)	11% (56)	0.73 (2)
GAST Offense	13	55% (29)	40% (105)	39.3	188.1	4.8	25 (37)	.15 (74)	2.84 (112)	78% (30)	11% (89)	1.16 (7)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ODU Offense	13	49% (68)	37% (107)	15.7	27.8	194.8	7	12.4	20 (70)	11 (68)	.15 (112)	1.7 (39)	35% (119)	31% (70)	.3 (79)	5% (37)	2.2 (33)
GAST Defense	13	52% (106)	45% (111)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.37 (113)	1.6 (76)	33% (55)	31% (89)	.42 (114)	4% (122)	2.2 (106)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ODU Defense	13	47% (38)	47% (124)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.31 (93)	1.5 (39)	28% (126)	30% (71)	.24 (36)	6% (70)	2.1 (76)
GAST Offense	13	44% (104)	44% (41)	19.2	28.2	205.5	7.3	10.7	20 (70)	7 (21)	.31 (61)	1.5 (91)	31% (45)	33% (47)	.37 (58)	4% (14)	2.1 (38)

Old Dominion's Power Ratings
Old Dominion's Power Rating: -3.84 #77
Old Dominion's Offense Rating: 23.31 #34
Old Dominion's Defense Rating: 9.12 #66
2024 Talent Rating: 154.00 #126
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Old Dominion's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Old Dominion's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.0 #95
Old Dominion's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #78
Old Dominion's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.3 #99

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 235.21
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Old Dominion: -3.84 Georgia State: -17.635

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Old Dominion: -6.0 Georgia State: -17.9

Georgia State's Power Ratings
Georgia State's Power Rating: -17.635 #124
Georgia State's Offense Rating: 14.80 #108
Georgia State's Defense Rating: 18.69 #126
2024 Talent Rating: 269.00 #86
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #74
Georgia State's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Georgia State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -17.9 #123
Georgia State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #106
Georgia State's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.4 #123

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 235.21
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Old Dominion Scoring
Offense: 32 PPG
Offense on Road: 31
Defense: 18.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 30

Old Dominion's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Old Dominion 33
Georgia State 21

Projected Total Points: 54

Georgia State Scoring
Offense: 19.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.5
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 30.3

Georgia State's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 5 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/29	Old Dominion	27	Georgia State	10	Old Dominion -29.0	Georgia State	58.5	Under
2024	10/12	Georgia State	14	Old Dominion	21	Georgia State -3	Old Dominion	53.0	Under
2023	11/25	Old Dominion	25	Georgia State	24	Old Dominion -2	Georgia State	49.5	Under
2022	10/29	Georgia State	31	Old Dominion	17	Georgia State -3.5	Georgia State	53.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Georgia State	1	3	0 Overs
Old Dominion	3	1	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 1	1 - 3	1 - 3	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 3	3 - 1	0 - 0	3 - 1

(#77) ODU at (#124) GAST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ODU	GAST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#77	#124
SP+SP+	#95	#123
Perf GradeGrade	#117	#120
OffenseOff	#126	#111
DefenseDef	#82	#120
Spec TeamsST	#114	#52
TalentTal	#126	#86
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#74

Old Dominion Notes(11/25) Fight w/ Marshall, Off great but 2 TOs cost em
(11/18) Fight w/ JMU, QB awful, Rgame good, R D awful
(11/3) 4 TOs broke W streak, QB Joseph good, Def bad
(10/24) Rgame good, Run D good in big W (GaSo)
(10/20) Rgame good, Run D better in big upset (Tex St)
(10/13) Rgame good, Run Def great vs Ga St. QB meh
(10/10) Rgame 200 yds(5.4 pc) L to C.Car., Def torched
(10/10) QB Joseph a huge upgrade, JAG w/ mobility
(9/28) Rgame better (189/5.3), QBs abysmal in L to BGU
(8/26) OL gave up most sacks in CFB LY
(7/30) Year 5, won last 2 LY to go bowling.
(7/30) OC Decker's off is unique, but roster is limiting
Old Dominion Injury Report

Georgia State Notes(11/25) Huge W vs Tex St, Off 500+ yds, Def 4 TOs
(11/18) Fight w/ Ark St, Rgame awful, QB great, R D awful
(11/3) Run Def mauled by UConn, Off 2 TOs cost bad
(10/17) QB Gibson OK, have some RB's (Brock/Dukes)
(10/17) Run D mauled by Marshall, 295 yds, 8 ypc
(10/13) Run Def mauled by Old D. Rgame ugly, a theme
(9/28) Run Def mauled by Ga South, Rgame 29 yds (1.9)
(9/14) Huge W over Vandy. 22 4th Q pts to steal W
(8/17) McGee hired v late (Feb 23), year 0 spot
(7/30) New HC McGee was RB/AHC at UGA for 8 years
(7/30) Complete roster TO: 32 in/ 36 out in Portal
(7/30) QB battle Gibson (Akron/GT) or Veilleux (Pitt)
Georgia State Injury Report

Old Dominion on Offense

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	ODU Off	GAST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#126	#120
SuccessSuc	#109	#68
ExplosiveExp	#9	#109
PPAPPA	#102	#94
PowerPwr	#34	#126
SP+SP+	#78	#123
Pts POPPO	#117	#83
HavocHav	#122	#105

Old Dominion Run Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	ODU Off	GAST Def
Run GameRun	#10	#120
Run SuccessRSuc	#92	#43
Run ExplRExp	#4	#95
PPAExp	#58	#72
Run BlockR Blk	#124	-
OL YdsOLY	#76	#56
Stuff RateStuff	#105	#36
TackleTak	-	#34

Old Dominion Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	ODU Off	GAST Def
Pass GamePass	#134	#122
Pass SuccessPSuc	#107	#111
Pass ExplPExl	#39	#76
PPAExp	#112	#113
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#134	#90
F7 HavocF7	#131	#63
DB HavocDB	#37	#122

Georgia State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	GAST Off	ODU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#111	#82
SuccessSuc	#72	#100
ExplosiveExp	#41	#4
PPAPPA	#68	#30
PowerPwr	#108	#66
SP+SP+	#106	#99
Pts POPPO	#65	#46
HavocHav	#59	#56

Georgia State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	GAST Off	ODU Def
Run GameRun	#53	#34
Run SuccessRSuc	#105	#60
Run ExplRExp	#7	#2
PPAExp	#74	#11
Run BlockR Blk	#125	-
OL YdsOLY	#112	#22
Stuff RateStuff	#77	#42
TackleTak	-	#120

Georgia State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	GAST Off	ODU Def
Pass GamePass	#96	#99
Pass SuccessPSuc	#41	#124
Pass ExplPExl	#91	#39
PPAExp	#61	#93
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#106	#128
F7 HavocF7	#89	#56
DB HavocDB	#14	#70

Program Comparison
GAST 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'24 Profile: Up to Poor G5

ODU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Up to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Georgia State Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 7
Georgia State -3.0 (53.0)
Old Dominion won at Georgia State this year (21-14)

Previous Matchups
Old Dominion beat Georgia State last year (27-10)
Old Dominion beat Georgia State in 2024 (21-14)
Old Dominion beat Georgia State in 2023 (25-24)

ODU's OC Kevin Decker (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Colton Joseph	133	222	60%	1623	11	5	7.3
Grant Wilson	48	86	56%	507	4	3	5.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Aaron Young (Tr)	149	768	6	5.2	51
Colton Joseph	114	647	11	5.7	39
Bryce Duke (Tr)	46	285	0	6.2	48
Quinn Henicle	34	278	3	8.2	92

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Isiah Paige	61	814	3	13.3	72
Pat Conroy (Tr)	37	523	5	14.1	75
Diante Vines (Tr)	36	393	2	10.9	40
Myles Alston	23	246	0	10.7	30

View Old Dominion's Full Roster

ODU's DC Blake Seiler (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Koa Naotala	87	5	4	5	1
Jahron Manning	85	6	1	0	3
Mario Thompson	66	10	5	5	1
Jahleel Culbreath	62	8	0	2	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mario Thompson	66	10	5	5	1
Koa Naotala	87	5	4	5	1
Kris Trinidad	44	10	4	5	3
Jeremy Mack Jr.	22	4	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Rasheed Reason	50	2	0	4
Dywan Griffin	4	0	0	3
Jahron Manning	85	6	1	3

GAST's OC Jim Chaney (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Christian Veilleux (Tr)	166	291	57%	2047	13	11	7.0
Zach Gibson (Tr)	102	151	68%	1004	7	2	6.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Freddie Brock	151	819	8	5.4	57
Michel Dukes	63	365	2	5.8	35
Sy'veon Wilkerson (Tr)	23	97	0	4.2	41
Christian Veilleux (Tr)	28	74	1	2.6	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ted Hurst (Tr)	56	961	9	17.2	76
Dorian Fleming	49	558	6	11.4	58
Michel Dukes	43	354	3	8.2	26
Petey Tucker	30	324	0	10.8	29

View Georgia State's Full Roster

GAST's DC Kevin Sherrer (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jeremiah Johnson	69	1	0	1	6
Josiah Robinson	62	7	4	2	3
Xavier Robinson (Tr)	60	5	2	1	0
Jyron Gilmore (Tr)	54	2	0	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kevin Swint	48	10	5	1	4
Henry Bryant	30	6	4	2	1
Josiah Robinson	62	7	4	2	3
Xavier Robinson (Tr)	60	5	2	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Gavin Pringle	34	2	0	8
Jeremiah Johnson	69	1	1	6
Izaiah Guy	30	0	0	5