Georgia State at App State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Georgia State Panthers at App State Mountaineers

Saturday, October 26th 2024 (1:00 PM EDT)
App State -7.5 (59.0) (-310) Open: -8.0 | 63.0
App State 33 - Georgia State: 26 (Sun Belt)

Panthers (3 - 9) (3 - 8 - 1)
Coach Dell McGee (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 24 - 34 (24 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

GAST 2nd straight Road Game
APP coming off BYE
Our Line: App State -14 (SP+ APP -10)
Projected Score: GAST: 22 - APP: 36 (59)
APP Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
GAST Travel: 230 miles

Mountaineers (5 - 6) (3 - 7 - 1)
Coach Shawn Clark (35 - 18)
Avg Score : 27 - 33 (29 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 6 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
GAST Players
APP Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Georgia State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Georgia State at Georgia Tech	+20.5	57.0	L 12 - 35	U	N
Sat 9/7	Georgia State vs Chattanooga	-9.5	51.5	W 24 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/14	Georgia State vs Vanderbilt	+8.5	45.5	W 36 - 32	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Georgia State vs Georgia Southern	-3.5	57.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Georgia State vs Old Dominion	-3.0	53.0	L 14 - 21	U	N
Thu 10/17	Georgia State at Marshall	+9.5	51.5	L 20 - 35	O	N
Sat 10/26	Georgia State at App State	+7.5	59.0	L 26 - 33	U	Y
Fri 11/1	Georgia State at UConn	+7.0	48.0	L 27 - 34	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Georgia State at James Madison	+14.5	53.5	L 7 - 38	U	N
Sat 11/16	Georgia State vs Arkansas State	-2.5	60.0	L 20 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/23	Georgia State at Texas State	+23.0	59.5	W 52 - 44	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Georgia State vs Coastal Carolina	-0.5	52.5	L 27 - 48	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Georgia State's Schedule

App State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	App State vs East Tennessee State	-35.5	58.5	W 38 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/7	App State at Clemson	+13.5	53.5	L 20 - 66	O	N
Sat 9/14	App State at East Carolina	+0.5	56.5	W 21 - 19	U	Y
Thu 9/19	App State vs South Alabama	-8.0	62.5	L 14 - 48	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	App State at Marshall	+3.0	56.5	L 37 - 52	O	N
Sat 10/12	App State at Louisiana	+10.0	64.0	L 24 - 34	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	App State vs Georgia State	-7.5	59.0	W 33 - 26	U	N
Sat 11/2	App State vs Old Dominion	+2.5	58.0	W 28 - 20	U	Y
Thu 11/7	App State at Coastal Carolina	-1.5	62.5	L 24 - 38	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	App State vs James Madison	+7.5	57.5	W 34 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/30	App State at Georgia Southern	+2.5	60.5	L 20 - 29	U	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
GAST	#92 (.15)	41% (90)	23.8	42% (92)	2.94 (86)	134	41% (79)	256	3.85 (76)	#121 (.28)	48% (123)	33.8	49% (119)	46% (118)	4.42 (120)	49.1	1.6	1.4
APP	#57 (.21)	44% (60)	26.6	45% (58)	3.01 (75)	157	43% (62)	273	3.89 (71)	#123 (.3)	49% (127)	32.9	51% (130)	47% (119)	4.78 (132)	57	2	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
GAST	#92 (.15)	41% (90)		42% (92)	2.94 (86)	134	41% (79)	256	3.85 (76)	#121 (.28)	48% (123)		49% (119)	46% (118)	4.42 (120)	49.1	1.6	1.4
APP	#57 (.21)	44% (60)		45% (58)	3.01 (75)	157	43% (62)	273	3.89 (71)	#123 (.3)	49% (127)		51% (130)	47% (119)	4.78 (132)	57	2	1.2

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
GAST Offense	12	23.8	24	41.2%	3.85	1.6	21	390	134	256	4.5	42%	58%	42%	41%	18%	.15
APP Defense	11	32.9	24.8	49%	4.78	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	56%	44%	51%	47%	12%	.3

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
GAST Defense	12	33.8	36.5	47.6%	4.42	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	58%	42%	49%	46%	14%	.28
APP Offense	11	26.6	29.4	43.6%	3.89	2	24	430	157	273	4.5	48%	51%	45%	43%	16%	.21

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Georgia State	12	29:58	20.7	36%	37%	5.1	49.1	1.6	1.4	4	1.5	0	30.6
App State	11	30:06	23.9	43%	59%	6	57	2	1.2	4.3	2.1	1	27.6

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
GAST Offense	12	42% (118)	42% (92)	30	134	4.5	13 (105)	.06 (105)	2.94 (86)	67% (108)	10% (83)	0.95 (74)
APP Defense	11	56% (124)	51% (130)	-	-	-	-	.26 (128)	3.41 (125)	77% (94)	9% (89)	1.04 (94)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
GAST Defense	12	58% (130)	49% (119)	-	-	-	-	.22 (115)	3.36 (117)	79% (104)	8% (124)	0.95 (51)
APP Offense	11	48% (81)	45% (58)	34.9	157.4	4.5	13 (105)	.1 (89)	3.01 (75)	80% (21)	7% (15)	0.89 (104)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
GAST Offense	12	58% (15)	41% (79)	22.6	37.4	255.8	6.8	11.3	21 (51)	13 (103)	.24 (78)	1.6 (66)	33% (98)	32% (59)	.37 (54)	7% (114)	2.1 (53)
APP Defense	11	44% (10)	47% (119)	-	-	-	-	-	-	4 (125)	.37 (119)	1.5 (46)	26% (133)	35% (115)	.38 (100)	2% (134)	2 (62)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
GAST Defense	12	42% (5)	46% (118)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.38 (124)	1.6 (80)	29% (108)	38% (125)	.46 (123)	6% (60)	1.8 (11)
APP Offense	11	51% (53)	43% (62)	19.8	35.6	272.9	7.7	13.8	23 (41)	16 (124)	.32 (41)	1.8 (13)	35% (122)	37% (15)	.46 (19)	9% (130)	2.2 (18)

Georgia State's Power Ratings
Georgia State's Power Rating: -22.37 #124
Georgia State's Offense Rating: 14.80 #108
Georgia State's Defense Rating: 18.69 #126
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #74
Georgia State's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Georgia State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -17.9 #123
Georgia State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #106
Georgia State's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.4 #123

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Georgia State: -22.37 App State: -6.03

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Georgia State: -17.9 App State: -8.1

App State's Power Ratings
App State's Power Rating: -6.03 #97
App State's Offense Rating: 21.99 #50
App State's Defense Rating: 17.06 #121
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
App State's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 6.0
App State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.1 #100
App State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #67
App State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.6 #110

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Georgia State Scoring
Offense: 23.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 24
Defense: 33.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 36.5

Georgia State's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
App State 36
Georgia State 22

Total Points: 59

Based on Last 4 Games
Georgia State 32
App State 26

Total Points: 58

Based on Entire Season
App State 32
Georgia State 26

Total Points: 58

App State Scoring
Offense: 26.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.4
Defense: 32.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.8

App State's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 6
Record vs Spread: 3 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 2 - 9
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/11	Georgia State	20	App State	41	App State -3	App State	55.5	Over
2024	10/26	App State	33	Georgia State	26	App State -7.5	Georgia State	59.0	Push
2023	11/11	Georgia State	14	App State	42	Georgia State -2.5	App State	62.5	Under
2022	10/19	App State	42	Georgia State	17	Appalachian State -9.5	App State	60.5	Under
2021	10/02	Georgia State	16	App State	45	Appalachian State -10.5	App State	54.5	Over
2020	11/14	App State	17	Georgia State	13	Appalachian State -18	Georgia State	63.0	Under
2019	11/16	Georgia State	27	App State	56	Appalachian State -15	App State	61.0	Over
2018	11/17	App State	45	Georgia State	17	Appalachian State -27.5	App State	54.5	Over
2017	11/25	Georgia State	10	App State	31	Appalachian State -6	App State	50.5	Under
2016	10/01	App State	17	Georgia State	3	Appalachian State -21	Georgia State	52.0	Under
2015	10/10	Georgia State	3	App State	37	Appalachian State -18	App State	61.0	Under
2014	11/01	App State	44	Georgia State	0	Appalachian State -5.5	App State	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
App State	12	9	4 Overs
Georgia State	0	3	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 6	3 - 9	3 - 4	0 - 5
Road Teams	6 - 6	9 - 3	5 - 0	4 - 3

(#124) GAST at (#97) APP

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	GAST	APP
Power RatePwr	#124	#97
SP+SP+	#123	#100
Perf GradeGrade	#120	#84
OffenseOff	#111	#70
DefenseDef	#120	#92
Spec TeamsST	#52	#69
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#74	#102

Georgia State Notes(11/25) Huge W vs Tex St, Off 500+ yds, Def 4 TOs
(11/18) Fight w/ Ark St, Rgame awful, QB great, R D awful
(11/3) Run Def mauled by UConn, Off 2 TOs cost bad
(10/17) QB Gibson OK, have some RB's (Brock/Dukes)
(10/17) Run D mauled by Marshall, 295 yds, 8 ypc
(10/13) Run Def mauled by Old D. Rgame ugly, a theme
(9/28) Run Def mauled by Ga South, Rgame 29 yds (1.9)
(9/14) Huge W over Vandy. 22 4th Q pts to steal W
(8/17) McGee hired v late (Feb 23), year 0 spot
(7/30) New HC McGee was RB/AHC at UGA for 8 years
(7/30) Complete roster TO: 32 in/ 36 out in Portal
(7/30) QB battle Gibson (Akron/GT) or Veilleux (Pitt)
Georgia State Injury Report

App State Notes(12/10) Hired HC Loggains (OC/QB S Car 23-24)
(12/2) HC Clark fired after 40-24 in 5 yrs, Huff rumors?
(11/25) Huge upset vs JMU, box score L but 2 Def TOs
(11/8) Run D bad vs C.Car, 3 TO's hurt. QB Aguilar 2 INT
(11/3) Pass D torched by ODU, Aguilar good, forced 4 TOs
(10/22) Def stop rate 42% (#127) into week 9
(10/12) OG'd ULL but 5 TO's, QB/Rgame OK, Def meh
(9/23) Clark & staff better improve, feels stale/bad
(9/23) Missed 26 tackles! vs S Al
(9/19) This Off looks broken. Rgame awful, Aguilar erratic
(9/12) D not P5 ready, 712 yds to Clem. QB Aguilar ?
(7/30) QB Aguilar v good, WRs all back, lost RB to Mizzu.
App State Injury Report

Georgia State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	GAST Off	APP Def
Perf GradePerf	#111	#92
SuccessSuc	#90	#127
ExplosiveExp	#46	#53
PPAPPA	#92	#123
PowerPwr	#108	#121
SP+SP+	#106	#110
Pts POPPO	#76	#132
HavocHav	#108	#132

Georgia State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	GAST Off	APP Def
Run GameRun	#53	#88
Run SuccessRSuc	#92	#130
Run ExplRExp	#74	#94
PPAExp	#105	#128
Run BlockR Blk	#125	-
OL YdsOLY	#86	#125
Stuff RateStuff	#94	#113
TackleTak	-	#86

Georgia State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	GAST Off	APP Def
Pass GamePass	#96	#109
Pass SuccessPSuc	#79	#119
Pass ExplPExl	#66	#46
PPAExp	#78	#119
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#106	#34
F7 HavocF7	#83	#89
DB HavocDB	#114	#134

App State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	APP Off	GAST Def
Perf GradePerf	#70	#120
SuccessSuc	#60	#123
ExplosiveExp	#28	#46
PPAPPA	#57	#121
PowerPwr	#50	#126
SP+SP+	#67	#123
Pts POPPO	#71	#120
HavocHav	#66	#109

App State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	APP Off	GAST Def
Run GameRun	#48	#120
Run SuccessRSuc	#58	#119
Run ExplRExp	#104	#51
PPAExp	#89	#115
Run BlockR Blk	#54	-
OL YdsOLY	#75	#117
Stuff RateStuff	#87	#111
TackleTak	-	#34

App State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	APP Off	GAST Def
Pass GamePass	#95	#122
Pass SuccessPSuc	#62	#118
Pass ExplPExl	#13	#80
PPAExp	#41	#124
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#96	#90
F7 HavocF7	#15	#124
DB HavocDB	#130	#60

Program Comparison
APP 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

GAST 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kidd Brewer Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 9
App State -7.5 (59.0)
App State won vs Georgia State this year (33-26)

Previous Matchups
App State beat Georgia State last year (33-26)
App State beat Georgia State in 2023 (42-14)
App State beat Georgia State in 2022 (42-17)

GAST's OC Jim Chaney (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Christian Veilleux (Tr)	166	291	57%	2047	13	11	7.0
Zach Gibson (Tr)	102	151	68%	1004	7	2	6.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Freddie Brock	151	819	8	5.4	57
Michel Dukes	63	365	2	5.8	35
Sy'veon Wilkerson (Tr)	23	97	0	4.2	41
Christian Veilleux (Tr)	28	74	1	2.6	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ted Hurst (Tr)	56	961	9	17.2	76
Dorian Fleming	49	558	6	11.4	58
Michel Dukes	43	354	3	8.2	26
Petey Tucker	30	324	0	10.8	29

View Georgia State's Full Roster

GAST's DC Kevin Sherrer (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jeremiah Johnson	69	1	0	1	6
Josiah Robinson	62	7	4	2	3
Xavier Robinson (Tr)	60	5	2	1	0
Jyron Gilmore (Tr)	54	2	0	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kevin Swint	48	10	5	1	4
Henry Bryant	30	6	4	2	1
Josiah Robinson	62	7	4	2	3
Xavier Robinson (Tr)	60	5	2	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Gavin Pringle	34	2	0	8
Jeremiah Johnson	69	1	1	6
Izaiah Guy	30	0	0	5

APP's OC Frank Ponce (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Joey Aguilar	218	390	56%	3002	23	14	7.7
Kaedin Robinson	0	1	0%	0	0	1	0.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ahmani Marshall	149	713	7	4.8	29
Kanye Roberts	82	332	1	4.0	18
Anderson Castle	50	246	1	4.9	21
Joey Aguilar	58	217	2	3.7	49

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kaedin Robinson	53	840	2	15.8	50
Makai Jackson	46	745	5	16.2	64
Christan Horn	19	367	1	19.3	83
Dalton Stroman	20	307	5	15.4	47

View App State's Full Roster

APP's DC Scott Sloan (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Brendan Harrington	55	1	1	1
Kyle Arnholt	54	2	2	0
DJ Burks	52	3	0	0
Jason Chambers (Tr)	37	1	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Thomas Davis	35	6	4	1
Santana Hopper	30	8	4	0
Michael Fletcher	16	4	4	6
Joshua Donald (Tr)	31	6	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jordan Favors	33	1	0	4
Ethan Johnson	22	0	1	2
Brendan Harrington	55	1	1	1