Vanderbilt at Georgia State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Vanderbilt Commodores at Georgia State Panthers

Saturday, September 14th 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
Vanderbilt -8.5 (45.5) (-350) Open: -10.0 | 46.5
Georgia State 36 - Vanderbilt: 32

Commodores (7 - 6) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Clark Lea (9 - 27)
Avg Score : 39 - 23 (33 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

GAST 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Vanderbilt -21.5 (SP+ VAN -23)
Projected Score: VAN: 36 - GAST: 15 (51)
VAN Win prob: 71% | Cover: 46%
VAN Travel: 216 miles, 1 hrs behind

Panthers (3 - 9) (3 - 8 - 1)
Coach Dell McGee (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 20 - 38 (22 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
VAN Players
GAST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Vanderbilt's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Vanderbilt vs Virginia Tech	+13.5	53.5	W 34 - 27	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Vanderbilt vs Alcorn State	-32.5	47.5	W 55 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Vanderbilt at Georgia State	-8.5	45.5	L 32 - 36	O	N
Sat 9/21	Vanderbilt at Missouri	+17.5	52.0	L 27 - 30	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Vanderbilt vs Alabama	+23.5	53.5	W 40 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Vanderbilt at Kentucky	+12.5	44.5	W 20 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Vanderbilt vs Ball State	-27.5	57.5	W 24 - 14	U	N
Sat 10/26	Vanderbilt vs Texas	+17.0	50.5	L 24 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Vanderbilt at Auburn	+7.5	48.0	W 17 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/9	Vanderbilt vs South Carolina	+6.0	44.5	L 7 - 28	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Vanderbilt at LSU	+10.0	53.0	L 17 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Vanderbilt vs Tennessee	+9.5	45.5	L 23 - 36	O	N
Fri 12/27	Vanderbilt vs Georgia Tech	+3.0	49.0	W 35 - 27	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Vanderbilt's Schedule

Georgia State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Georgia State at Georgia Tech	+20.5	57.0	L 12 - 35	U	N
Sat 9/7	Georgia State vs Chattanooga	-9.5	51.5	W 24 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/14	Georgia State vs Vanderbilt	+8.5	45.5	W 36 - 32	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Georgia State vs Georgia Southern	-3.5	57.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Georgia State vs Old Dominion	-3.0	53.0	L 14 - 21	U	N
Thu 10/17	Georgia State at Marshall	+9.5	51.5	L 20 - 35	O	N
Sat 10/26	Georgia State at App State	+7.5	59.0	L 26 - 33	U	Y
Fri 11/1	Georgia State at UConn	+7.0	48.0	L 27 - 34	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Georgia State at James Madison	+14.5	53.5	L 7 - 38	U	N
Sat 11/16	Georgia State vs Arkansas State	-2.5	60.0	L 20 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/23	Georgia State at Texas State	+23.0	59.5	W 52 - 44	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Georgia State vs Coastal Carolina	-0.5	52.5	L 27 - 48	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
VAN	#127 (.05)	36% (123)	38.5	37% (124)	2.92 (103)	95	37% (109)	223	4.09 (50)	#131 (.33)	45% (106)	22.8	42% (59)	48% (131)	4.11 (98)	42.5	1.7	1.3
GAST	#68 (.19)	42% (72)	19.8	40% (105)	2.84 (112)	188	44% (41)	206	3.92 (65)	#94 (.22)	42% (68)	37.8	40% (43)	45% (111)	3.95 (83)	57.5	1.2	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
VAN		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
GAST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
VAN Offense	12	38.5	33	36.4%	4.09	1.7	17	319	95	223	3.3	42%	56%	37%	37%	22%	.05
GAST Defense	13	37.8	30.3	42.1%	3.95	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	40%	45%	15%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
VAN Defense	12	22.8	23	44.8%	4.11	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	42%	48%	15%	.33
GAST Offense	13	19.8	21.5	41.6%	3.92	1.2	20	394	188	206	4.8	55%	44%	40%	44%	15%	.19

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Vanderbilt	12	28:46	17	33%	30%	4.9	42.5	1.7	1.3	5.4	1.8	3	29.5
Georgia State	13	29:26	19.5	46%	47%	6.4	57.5	1.2	1.3	5.5	2	2	29.1

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
VAN Offense	12	42% (116)	37% (124)	29.2	95.3	3.3	10 (124)	-.01 (128)	2.92 (103)	74% (63)	12% (102)	0.96 (91)
GAST Defense	13	47% (25)	40% (43)	-	-	-	-	.15 (72)	3.05 (56)	63% (19)	10% (63)	1.06 (95)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
VAN Defense	12	47% (28)	42% (59)	-	-	-	-	.25 (119)	3.08 (61)	72% (60)	9% (90)	1.17 (122)
GAST Offense	13	55% (29)	40% (105)	39.3	188.1	4.8	25 (37)	.15 (74)	2.84 (112)	78% (30)	11% (89)	1.16 (7)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
VAN Offense	12	56% (21)	37% (109)	18.1	32.5	223.3	6.9	12.4	23 (51)	13 (97)	.14 (113)	1.7 (30)	37% (130)	25% (113)	.1 (129)	10% (133)	2 (91)
GAST Defense	13	52% (106)	45% (111)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.37 (113)	1.6 (76)	33% (55)	31% (89)	.42 (114)	4% (122)	2.2 (106)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
VAN Defense	12	52% (100)	48% (131)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.43 (126)	1.6 (56)	31% (88)	37% (126)	.46 (123)	5% (96)	1.9 (25)
GAST Offense	13	44% (104)	44% (41)	19.2	28.2	205.5	7.3	10.7	20 (70)	7 (21)	.31 (61)	1.5 (91)	31% (45)	33% (47)	.37 (58)	4% (14)	2.1 (38)

Vanderbilt's Power Ratings
Vanderbilt's Power Rating: 2.99 #49
Vanderbilt's Offense Rating: 19.12 #75
Vanderbilt's Defense Rating: 12.18 #91
2024 Talent Rating: 387.00 #39
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #65
Vanderbilt's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
Vanderbilt's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.9 #50
Vanderbilt's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #60
Vanderbilt's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #59

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 511.63
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Vanderbilt: 2.99 Georgia State: -17.635

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Vanderbilt: 4.9 Georgia State: -17.9

Georgia State's Power Ratings
Georgia State's Power Rating: -17.635 #124
Georgia State's Offense Rating: 14.80 #108
Georgia State's Defense Rating: 18.69 #126
2024 Talent Rating: 269.00 #86
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #74
Georgia State's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Georgia State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -17.9 #123
Georgia State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #106
Georgia State's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.4 #123

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 235.21
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Vanderbilt Scoring
Offense: 38.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 33
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 23

Vanderbilt's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Vanderbilt 36
Georgia State 15

Projected Total Points: 51

Georgia State Scoring
Offense: 19.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.5
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 30.3

Georgia State's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/20	Vanderbilt	70	Georgia State	21	Vanderbilt -27.5	Vanderbilt	53.5	Over
2024	09/14	Georgia State	36	Vanderbilt	32	Vanderbilt -8.5	Georgia State	45.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Georgia State	1	1	2 Overs
Vanderbilt	1	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	2 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 1

(#49) VAN at (#124) GAST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	VAN	GAST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#49	#124
SP+SP+	#50	#123
Perf GradeGrade	#81	#120
OffenseOff	#77	#111
DefenseDef	#100	#120
Spec TeamsST	#59	#52
TalentTal	#39	#86
Blue ChipsBC%	#65	#74

Vanderbilt Injury Report

Georgia State Notes(11/25) Huge W vs Tex St, Off 500+ yds, Def 4 TOs
(11/18) Fight w/ Ark St, Rgame awful, QB great, R D awful
(11/3) Run Def mauled by UConn, Off 2 TOs cost bad
(10/17) QB Gibson OK, have some RB's (Brock/Dukes)
(10/17) Run D mauled by Marshall, 295 yds, 8 ypc
(10/13) Run Def mauled by Old D. Rgame ugly, a theme
(9/28) Run Def mauled by Ga South, Rgame 29 yds (1.9)
(9/14) Huge W over Vandy. 22 4th Q pts to steal W
(8/17) McGee hired v late (Feb 23), year 0 spot
(7/30) New HC McGee was RB/AHC at UGA for 8 years
(7/30) Complete roster TO: 32 in/ 36 out in Portal
(7/30) QB battle Gibson (Akron/GT) or Veilleux (Pitt)
Georgia State Injury Report

Vanderbilt on Offense

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	VAN Off	GAST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#77	#120
SuccessSuc	#123	#68
ExplosiveExp	#13	#109
PPAPPA	#127	#94
PowerPwr	#75	#126
SP+SP+	#60	#123
Pts POPPO	#50	#83
HavocHav	#132	#105

Vanderbilt Run Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	VAN Off	GAST Def
Run GameRun	#81	#120
Run SuccessRSuc	#124	#43
Run ExplRExp	#91	#95
PPAExp	#128	#72
Run BlockR Blk	#107	-
OL YdsOLY	#103	#56
Stuff RateStuff	#95	#36
TackleTak	-	#34

Vanderbilt Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	VAN Off	GAST Def
Pass GamePass	#16	#122
Pass SuccessPSuc	#109	#111
Pass ExplPExl	#30	#76
PPAExp	#113	#113
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#127	#90
F7 HavocF7	#102	#63
DB HavocDB	#133	#122

Georgia State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	GAST Off	VAN Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#111	#100
SuccessSuc	#72	#106
ExplosiveExp	#41	#113
PPAPPA	#68	#131
PowerPwr	#108	#91
SP+SP+	#106	#59
Pts POPPO	#65	#98
HavocHav	#59	#101

Georgia State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	GAST Off	VAN Def
Run GameRun	#53	#65
Run SuccessRSuc	#105	#59
Run ExplRExp	#7	#122
PPAExp	#74	#119
Run BlockR Blk	#125	-
OL YdsOLY	#112	#61
Stuff RateStuff	#77	#49
TackleTak	-	#105

Georgia State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	GAST Off	VAN Def
Pass GamePass	#96	#106
Pass SuccessPSuc	#41	#131
Pass ExplPExl	#91	#56
PPAExp	#61	#126
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#106	#107
F7 HavocF7	#89	#90
DB HavocDB	#14	#96

Program Comparison
GAST 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'24 Profile: Up to Poor G5

VAN 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'24 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Georgia State Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 3
Vanderbilt 8.5 (45.5)
Georgia State won vs Vanderbilt this year (36-32)

Previous Matchups
Vanderbilt beat Georgia State last year (70-21)
Georgia State beat Vanderbilt in 2024 (36-32)

VAN's OC Tim Beck (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Diego Pavia (Tr)	177	298	59%	2293	20	4	7.7
Nate Johnson (Tr)	1	3	33%	12	0	0	4.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Diego Pavia (Tr)	193	800	8	4.1	36
Sedrick Alexander	164	586	6	3.6	31
AJ Newberry	41	185	3	4.5	20
Nate Johnson (Tr)	11	114	1	10.4	56

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Eli Stowers (Tr)	49	638	5	13.0	41
Junior Sherrill	29	411	3	14.2	43
Quincy Skinner Jr.	29	367	3	12.7	63
Sedrick Alexander	23	238	1	10.3	38

View Vanderbilt's Full Roster

VAN's DC Clark Lea (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bryan Longwell	88	8	2	2	4
Langston Patterson	78	5	0	0	2
Randon Fontenette (Tr)	72	8	3	0	7
CJ Taylor	64	3	0	1	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nicholas Rinaldi	52	6	6	0	0
Khordae Sydnor (Tr)	14	7	4	2	2
Randon Fontenette (Tr)	72	8	3	0	7
Miles Capers	45	8	3	1	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Randon Fontenette (Tr)	72	8	3	0	7
Bryan Longwell	88	8	2	2	4
Martel Hight	33	2	0	1	4

GAST's OC Jim Chaney (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Christian Veilleux (Tr)	166	291	57%	2047	13	11	7.0
Zach Gibson (Tr)	102	151	68%	1004	7	2	6.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Freddie Brock	151	819	8	5.4	57
Michel Dukes	63	365	2	5.8	35
Sy'veon Wilkerson (Tr)	23	97	0	4.2	41
Christian Veilleux (Tr)	28	74	1	2.6	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ted Hurst (Tr)	56	961	9	17.2	76
Dorian Fleming	49	558	6	11.4	58
Michel Dukes	43	354	3	8.2	26
Petey Tucker	30	324	0	10.8	29

View Georgia State's Full Roster

GAST's DC Kevin Sherrer (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jeremiah Johnson	69	1	0	1	6
Josiah Robinson	62	7	4	2	3
Xavier Robinson (Tr)	60	5	2	1	0
Jyron Gilmore (Tr)	54	2	0	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kevin Swint	48	10	5	1	4
Henry Bryant	30	6	4	2	1
Josiah Robinson	62	7	4	2	3
Xavier Robinson (Tr)	60	5	2	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Gavin Pringle	34	2	0	8
Jeremiah Johnson	69	1	1	6
Izaiah Guy	30	0	0	5