Nevada at San José State - 2024 Matchup Preview
Nevada logo Nevada Wolf Pack at San José State SpartansSan José State logo
Saturday, October 5th 2024 (7:30 PM EDT)
San José State -7 (51.5) (-285)  Open: -10.0
San José State 35 - Nevada: 31  (Mountain West)

 
Wolf Pack (3 - 10) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Jeff Choate (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 23 - 29 (18 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 10 (#114)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)
Temp: 101.1° (13% Hum)
NEV coming off BYE
SJSU coming off BYE
Our Line: San José State -9.5   (SP+ SJSU -10)

Projected Score: NEV: 21 - SJSU: 31 (54)
SJSU Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
NEV Travel: 190 miles
Spartans (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Ken Niumatalolo (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 28 - 28 (29 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 5)
 
Nevada's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/24 Nevada vs SMU+28.055.5L 24 - 29UY
Sat 8/31 Nevada at Troy+7.544.5W 28 - 26OY
Sat 9/7 Nevada vs Georgia Southern-1.556.5L 17 - 20UN
Sat 9/14 Nevada at Minnesota+17.544.5L 0 - 27UN
Sat 9/21 Nevada vs Eastern Washington-13.554.5W 49 - 16OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 Nevada at San José State+7.051.5L 31 - 35OY
Sat 10/12 Nevada vs Oregon State+3.047.0W 42 - 37OY
Fri 10/18 Nevada vs Fresno State+3.050.0L 21 - 24UY
Sat 10/26 Nevada at Hawai'i+2.542.0L 13 - 34ON
Sat 11/2 Nevada vs Colorado State+2.045.5L 21 - 38ON
Sat 11/9 Nevada at Boise State+23.560.5L 21 - 28UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Nevada vs Air Force-3.044.5L 19 - 22UN
Sat 11/30 Nevada at UNLV+17.554.5L 14 - 38UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Nevada's Schedule
San José State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29 San José State vs Sacramento State-2.562.5W 42 - 24OY
Sat 9/7 San José State at Air Force+1.543.5W 17 - 7UY
Sat 9/14 San José State vs Kennesaw State-16.541.5W 31 - 10UY
Fri 9/20 San José State at Washington State+13.055.5L 52 - 54OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 San José State vs Nevada-7.051.5W 35 - 31ON
Sat 10/12 San José State at Colorado State+2.555.5L 24 - 31UN
Sat 10/19 San José State vs Wyoming-13.053.0W 24 - 14UN
Sat 10/26 San José State at Fresno State+6.555.0L 10 - 33UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9 San José State at Oregon State+3.058.5W 24 - 13UY
Sat 11/16 San José State vs Boise State+14.562.0L 21 - 42ON
Fri 11/22 San José State vs UNLV+7.559.5L 16 - 27UN
Fri 11/29 San José State vs Stanford-2.554.5W 34 - 31OY
Tue 12/24 San José State vs South Florida+1.566.5L 39 - 41ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for San José State's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NEV#128 (.04)35% (129)23.139% (116)2.67 (127)12532% (132)1752.54 (132)#101 (.24)46% (122)28.847% (110)47% (126)3.83 (71)58.51.71.3
SJSU#22 (.29)45% (29)28.448% (23)3.21 (48)18443% (51)2193.73 (81)#104 (.24)43% (79)27.545% (91)41% (60)3.86 (74)49.10.81.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NEV0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
SJSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NEV Offense1223.117.835.4%2.541.7173001251753.455%45%39%32%22%.04
SJSU Defense1327.525.642.8%3.861.6 - - - - - 56%43%45%41%15%.24
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NEV Defense1228.831.346.5%3.831.3 - - - - - 51%48%47%47%14%.24
SJSU Offense1328.42945.5%3.730.8214041842195.650%50%48%43%15%.29

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Nevada1230:1916.730%43%6.858.51.71.341.3326.8
San José State1330:3520.845%37%5.749.10.81.64.81.6334.5
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NEV Offense1255% (33)39% (116)36.9124.83.414 (106).08 (107)2.67 (127)55% (132)16% (133)0.98 (78)
SJSU Defense1356% (120)45% (91) - - - - .25 (121)3.47 (126)75% (81)9% (104)1.03 (88)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NEV Defense1251% (81)47% (110) - - - - .19 (97)3.28 (107)67% (30)9% (99)1.07 (104)
SJSU Offense1350% (71)48% (23)33184.15.631 (17).24 (22)3.21 (48)72% (85)10% (61)1.11 (21)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NEV Offense1245% (102)32% (132)15.928.8175.26.1116 (133)12 (85).02 (132)1.5 (88)34% (107)26% (109).06 (132)6% (89)1.7 (130)
SJSU Defense1343% (10)41% (60) - - - - - - 12 (37).29 (80)1.6 (80)31% (91)33% (108).44 (119)6% (80)2 (62)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NEV Defense1248% (52)47% (126) - - - - - - 9 (87).32 (99)1.6 (83)30% (102)30% (68).28 (50)5% (99)2 (37)
SJSU Offense1350% (61)43% (51)17.728.9219.57.612.421 (65)4 (2).34 (44)1.7 (28)33% (91)38% (9).48 (22)6% (59)2 (79)

Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -13.37 #109
Nevada's Offense Rating: 22.53 #46
Nevada's Defense Rating: 14.97 #108
2024 Talent Rating: 430.00 #112
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #65
Nevada's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 10.0
Nevada's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.2 #117
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #106
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #113

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 443.33
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -13.37   San José State: -4.565

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -15.2   San José State: -5.5




San José State's Power Ratings
San José State's Power Rating: -4.565 #94
San José State's Offense Rating: 16.16 #102
San José State's Defense Rating: 9.66 #71
2024 Talent Rating: 370.00 #123
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
San José State's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
San José State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.5 #92
San José State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.1 #73
San José State's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #90

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 443.33
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Nevada Scoring
Offense: 23.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.8
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.3

Nevada's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 10
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
San José State 31
Nevada 21


Projected Total Points: 54
San José State Scoring
Offense: 28.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 27.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.6

San José State's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/05San José State35Nevada31San José StateSan José State -7Nevada51.5Over
202210/29San José State35Nevada28San José StateSan José State -24.5Nevada44.5Over
202111/06Nevada27San José State24NevadaNevada -11.5San José State55.5Under
202012/11San José State30Nevada20San José StateNevada -1.5San José State60.5Under
201910/12Nevada41San José State38NevadaNevada -3Push60.5Over
201811/17San José State12Nevada21NevadaNevada -14.5San José State59.5Under
201711/11Nevada59San José State14NevadaNevada -17.5Nevada67.5Over
201610/15San José State14Nevada10San José StateSan José State -5Nevada56.0Under
201511/14Nevada37San José State34NevadaNevada -1Nevada52.5Over
201409/27San José State10Nevada21NevadaNevada -3Nevada0
201311/16Nevada38San José State16NevadaSan José State -7Nevada0
201109/17San José State14Nevada17Nevada
201010/09Nevada35San José State13Nevada
200911/08San José State7Nevada62Nevada
200811/15Nevada41San José State17Nevada
200711/24San José State27Nevada24San José State
200610/21Nevada23San José State7Nevada
200510/01San José State23Nevada30Nevada
200411/06Nevada42San José State24Nevada
200309/18San José State30Nevada42Nevada
200210/19Nevada52San José State24Nevada
200111/10San José State64Nevada45San José State
200010/20Nevada30San José State49San José State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
San José State735 Overs
Nevada1674 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams16 - 75 - 52 - 43 - 1
Road Teams7 - 165 - 51 - 34 - 2

(#109) Nevada Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -13.37 #109
Offense Rating: 22.53 #46
Defense Rating: 14.97 #108
Overall SP+ Rating: -15.2 #117
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #106
Defense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #113
Talent Rating: 430.00 #112
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #65
Expected Record: 3.0 - 10.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 45%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.88 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Avg Pass Success 42%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 46%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.33 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 49%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position


Nevada Notes
(10/19) 2nd H vs Fresno, 4 Punts, 2 loss of downs
(10/19) Rgame abysmal, 84 yds (2.2 ypc) vs Fresno in L
(10/19) QB Lewis benched for Purdy in Fresno game
(10/12) QB Lewis/RB Red almost 300 rush yds over Oreg St
(9/23) Choate a huge upgrade over prev staff
(9/1) QB Lewis v mobile, better passer than anticipated
(9/1) Played w/ SMU, W @ Troy. Nev vastly improved TY
(7/30) Worst team in CFB in '23, fired everyone
(7/30) Off near worst in '23, QB Purdy (Neb)?, WR ?
(7/30) OL has 3 back, RB actually decent. Lost AA Kicker
Nevada     Ratings Matchup     San José State
Power #109
#94
Off #46
#102
Def #108
#71
Talent #112
#123
SP+ #117
#92
SP+ Off #106
#73
SP+ Def #113
#90

Rematch from Week 6
San José State -7.0 (51.5)
San José State won vs Nevada this year (35-31)

Previous Matchups
San José State beat Nevada last year (35-31)
San José State beat Nevada in 2022 (35-28)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Spartan Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 101° - Wind: 10 mph


Team Information
Injuries: NEV | SJSU
Depth Chart: NEV | SJSU
Rosters: NEV | SJSU
(#94) San José State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -4.565 #94
Offense Rating: 16.16 #102
Defense Rating: 9.66 #71
Overall SP+ Rating: -5.5 #92
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.1 #73
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #90
Talent Rating: 370.00 #123
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 63%, Run: 37%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.6 PPO
Poor Run Success 41%
Good Pass Success 46%
Poor OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Good in Scoring Position 3.58 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 42%
Avg Pass Def Success 39%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


San José State Notes
(11/25) Eget 4/22, Rgame 33 yds vs UNLV. R D mauled
(11/18) Sloppy, 4 TOs vs Boise. Eget fun, Rgame awful
(10/27) Sloppy, 4 TOs vs Fresno. Def awful on 3rd down
(10/20) Sloppy, 4 TOs vs Wy. Eget 318 yds, Rgame good
(10/17) Top 20 in tempo, Pass great. Run Off/Def awful
(10/17) QB Eget replaced Brown vs Col St. Played well
(10/16) Into wk 8, have 15 Def TO's, 3rd in CFB
(10/13) Penalties and Bad Def are a theme in L (Col St)
(9/20) QB Brown is v good. Leads MWC in YDS/TDS
(9/19) WR Nash leads CFB in yds through 1st 3 weeks


  
Nevada's OC Matt Lubick
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brendon Lewis21131268%22901677.3
Chubba Purdy (Tr)182572%239119.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Brendon Lewis15777584.967
Savion Red (Tr)11968785.869
Pat Garwo III5524654.525
Sean Dollars4716503.526
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaden Smith62849713.762
Cortez Braham56724412.957
Marcus Bellon39522413.463
Caleb Ramseur8106113.344

View Nevada's Full Roster
Nevada's DC Kane Ioane
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kitan Crawford (Tr)763016
Drue Watts655103
Tongiaki Mateialona619202
Stone Combs583100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Henry Ikahihifo438430
Kristopher Ross296332
Tongiaki Mateialona619202
Jonathan Maldonado173201
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Michael Coats Jr.4110010
Kitan Crawford (Tr)763016
Chad Brown475006

San José State's OC Craig Stutzmann
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Walker Eget18832857%250413107.6
Emmett Brown (Tr)12521758%16211657.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Floyd Chalk IV (Tr)154721104.766
Jabari Bates5925414.331
Lamar Radcliffe3314114.318
Walker Eget299903.432
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Treyshun Hurry (Tr)28482217.231
Matthew Coleman34401211.833
Jackson Canaan28314211.258
Jacob Stewart3428738.437

View San José State's Full Roster
San José State's DC Derrick Odum
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Pollard11514223
Robert Rahimi (Tr)826115
Taniela Latu717132
Isiah Revis716125
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
John Ward467341
Jordan Pollard11514223
D.J. Harvey587206
Justin Stearns284220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
D.J. Harvey587206
Michael Dansby371006
Robert Rahimi (Tr)826115