Nevada at San José State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Nevada Wolf Pack at San José State Spartans

Saturday, October 5th 2024 (7:30 PM EDT)
San José State -7 (51.5) (-285) Open: -10.0
San José State 35 - Nevada: 31 (Mountain West)

Wolf Pack (3 - 10) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Jeff Choate (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 18 - 28 (16 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 10 (#114)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

NEV coming off BYE
SJSU coming off BYE
Our Line: San José State -9.5 (SP+ SJSU -10)
Projected Score: NEV: 21 - SJSU: 30 (51)
SJSU Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
NEV Travel: 190 miles

Spartans (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Ken Niumatalolo (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 21 - 33 (26 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NEV Players
SJSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Nevada's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/24	Nevada vs SMU	+28.0	55.5	L 24 - 29	U	Y
Sat 8/31	Nevada at Troy	+7.5	44.5	W 28 - 26	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Nevada vs Georgia Southern	-1.5	56.5	L 17 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/14	Nevada at Minnesota	+17.5	44.5	L 0 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/21	Nevada vs Eastern Washington	-13.5	54.5	W 49 - 16	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Nevada at San José State	+7.0	51.5	L 31 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Nevada vs Oregon State	+3.0	47.0	W 42 - 37	O	Y
Fri 10/18	Nevada vs Fresno State	+3.0	50.0	L 21 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Nevada at Hawai'i	+2.5	42.0	L 13 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/2	Nevada vs Colorado State	+2.0	45.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/9	Nevada at Boise State	+23.5	60.5	L 21 - 28	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Nevada vs Air Force	-3.0	44.5	L 19 - 22	U	N
Sat 11/30	Nevada at UNLV	+17.5	54.5	L 14 - 38	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Nevada's Schedule

San José State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	San José State vs Sacramento State	-2.5	62.5	W 42 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/7	San José State at Air Force	+1.5	43.5	W 17 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/14	San José State vs Kennesaw State	-16.5	41.5	W 31 - 10	U	Y
Fri 9/20	San José State at Washington State	+13.0	55.5	L 52 - 54	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	San José State vs Nevada	-7.0	51.5	W 35 - 31	O	N
Sat 10/12	San José State at Colorado State	+2.5	55.5	L 24 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/19	San José State vs Wyoming	-13.0	53.0	W 24 - 14	U	N
Sat 10/26	San José State at Fresno State	+6.5	55.0	L 10 - 33	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	San José State at Oregon State	+3.0	58.5	W 24 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/16	San José State vs Boise State	+14.5	62.0	L 21 - 42	O	N
Fri 11/22	San José State vs UNLV	+7.5	59.5	L 16 - 27	U	N
Fri 11/29	San José State vs Stanford	-2.5	54.5	W 34 - 31	O	Y
Tue 12/24	San José State vs South Florida	+1.5	66.5	L 39 - 41	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NEV	#128 (.04)	35% (129)	17.6	39% (116)	2.67 (127)	125	32% (132)	175	2.54 (132)	#101 (.24)	46% (122)	27.5	47% (110)	47% (126)	3.83 (71)	58.5	1.7	1.3
SJSU	#22 (.29)	45% (29)	21.4	48% (23)	3.21 (48)	184	43% (51)	219	3.73 (81)	#104 (.24)	43% (79)	32.5	45% (91)	41% (60)	3.86 (74)	49.1	0.8	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NEV		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
SJSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NEV Offense	12	17.6	15.5	35.4%	2.54	1.7	17	300	125	175	3.4	55%	45%	39%	32%	22%	.04
SJSU Defense	13	32.5	29.5	42.8%	3.86	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	56%	43%	45%	41%	15%	.24

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NEV Defense	12	27.5	29.8	46.5%	3.83	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	47%	47%	14%	.24
SJSU Offense	13	21.4	25.8	45.5%	3.73	0.8	21	404	184	219	5.6	50%	50%	48%	43%	15%	.29

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Nevada	12	30:19	16.7	30%	43%	6.8	58.5	1.7	1.3	4	1.3	3	26.8
San José State	13	30:35	20.8	45%	37%	5.7	49.1	0.8	1.6	4.8	1.6	3	34.5

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NEV Offense	12	55% (33)	39% (116)	36.9	124.8	3.4	14 (106)	.08 (107)	2.67 (127)	55% (132)	16% (133)	0.98 (78)
SJSU Defense	13	56% (120)	45% (91)	-	-	-	-	.25 (121)	3.47 (126)	75% (81)	9% (104)	1.03 (88)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NEV Defense	12	51% (81)	47% (110)	-	-	-	-	.19 (97)	3.28 (107)	67% (30)	9% (99)	1.07 (104)
SJSU Offense	13	50% (71)	48% (23)	33	184.1	5.6	31 (17)	.24 (22)	3.21 (48)	72% (85)	10% (61)	1.11 (21)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NEV Offense	12	45% (102)	32% (132)	15.9	28.8	175.2	6.1	11	6 (133)	12 (85)	.02 (132)	1.5 (88)	34% (107)	26% (109)	.06 (132)	6% (89)	1.7 (130)
SJSU Defense	13	43% (10)	41% (60)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.29 (80)	1.6 (80)	31% (91)	33% (108)	.44 (119)	6% (80)	2 (62)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NEV Defense	12	48% (52)	47% (126)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.32 (99)	1.6 (83)	30% (102)	30% (68)	.28 (50)	5% (99)	2 (37)
SJSU Offense	13	50% (61)	43% (51)	17.7	28.9	219.5	7.6	12.4	21 (65)	4 (2)	.34 (44)	1.7 (28)	33% (91)	38% (9)	.48 (22)	6% (59)	2 (79)

Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -13.37 #109
Nevada's Offense Rating: 22.53 #46
Nevada's Defense Rating: 14.97 #108
2024 Talent Rating: 214.00 #111
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #65
Nevada's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 10.0
Nevada's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.2 #117
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #106
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #113

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 190
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -13.37 San José State: -4.565

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -15.2 San José State: -5.5

San José State's Power Ratings
San José State's Power Rating: -4.565 #94
San José State's Offense Rating: 16.16 #102
San José State's Defense Rating: 9.66 #71
2024 Talent Rating: 174.00 #122
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
San José State's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
San José State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.5 #92
San José State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.1 #73
San José State's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #90

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 190
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Nevada Scoring
Offense: 17.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.5
Defense: 27.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.8

Nevada's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 10
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
San José State 30
Nevada 21

Projected Total Points: 51

San José State Scoring
Offense: 21.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.8
Defense: 32.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 29.5

San José State's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/15	Nevada	55	San José State	10	San José State -10	Nevada	49.5	Over
2024	10/05	San José State	35	Nevada	31	San José State -7	Nevada	51.5	Over
2022	10/29	San José State	35	Nevada	28	San José State -24.5	Nevada	44.5	Over
2021	11/06	Nevada	27	San José State	24	Nevada -11.5	San José State	55.5	Under
2020	12/11	San José State	30	Nevada	20	Nevada -1.5	San José State	60.5	Under
2019	10/12	Nevada	41	San José State	38	Nevada -3	Push	60.5	Over
2018	11/17	San José State	12	Nevada	21	Nevada -14.5	San José State	59.5	Under
2017	11/11	Nevada	59	San José State	14	Nevada -17.5	Nevada	67.5	Over
2016	10/15	San José State	14	Nevada	10	San José State -5	Nevada	56.0	Under
2015	11/14	Nevada	37	San José State	34	Nevada -1	Nevada	52.5	Over
2014	09/27	San José State	10	Nevada	21	Nevada -3	Nevada	0
2013	11/16	Nevada	38	San José State	16	San José State -7	Nevada	0
2011	09/17	San José State	14	Nevada	17
2010	10/09	Nevada	35	San José State	13
2009	11/08	San José State	7	Nevada	62
2008	11/15	Nevada	41	San José State	17
2007	11/24	San José State	27	Nevada	24
2006	10/21	Nevada	23	San José State	7
2005	10/01	San José State	23	Nevada	30
2004	11/06	Nevada	42	San José State	24
2003	09/18	San José State	30	Nevada	42
2002	10/19	Nevada	52	San José State	24
2001	11/10	San José State	64	Nevada	45
2000	10/20	Nevada	30	San José State	49

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
San José State	7	3	6 Overs
Nevada	17	8	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	17 - 7	6 - 5	2 - 4	4 - 1
Road Teams	7 - 17	5 - 6	1 - 4	4 - 2

(#109) NEV at (#94) SJSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NEV	SJSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#109	#94
SP+SP+	#117	#92
Perf GradeGrade	#94	#91
OffenseOff	#39	#86
DefenseDef	#119	#84
Spec TeamsST	#133	#103
TalentTal	#111	#122
Blue ChipsBC%	#65	#102

Nevada Notes(11/3) Outgained CSU but 2 TOs, bad 3rd down cost em
(10/19) 2nd H vs Fresno, 4 Punts, 2 loss of downs
(10/19) Rgame abysmal, 84 yds (2.2 ypc) vs Fresno in L
(10/19) QB Lewis benched for Purdy in Fresno game
(10/12) QB Lewis/RB Red almost 300 rush yds over Oreg St
(9/23) Choate a huge upgrade over prev staff
(9/1) QB Lewis v mobile, better passer than anticipated
(9/1) Played w/ SMU, W @ Troy. Nev vastly improved TY
(7/30) Worst team in CFB in '23, fired everyone
(7/30) Off near worst in '23, QB Purdy (Neb)?, WR ?
(7/30) OL has 3 back, RB actually decent. Lost AA Kicker
(7/30) Def near worst in 23, rebuild. All will take time
Nevada Injury Report

San José State Notes(11/29) Eget torches Stanford, Def forced 3 TOs, big W
(11/25) Eget 4/22, Rgame 33 yds vs UNLV. R D mauled
(11/18) Sloppy, 4 TOs vs Boise. Eget fun, Rgame awful
(10/27) Sloppy, 4 TOs vs Fresno. Def awful on 3rd down
(10/20) Sloppy, 4 TOs vs Wy. Eget 318 yds, Rgame good
(10/17) Top 20 in tempo, Pass great. Run Off/Def awful
(10/17) QB Eget replaced Brown vs Col St. Played well
(10/16) Into wk 8, have 15 Def TO's, 3rd in CFB
(10/13) Penalties and Bad Def are a theme in L (Col St)
(9/20) QB Brown is v good. Leads MWC in YDS/TDS
(9/19) WR Nash leads CFB in yds through 1st 3 weeks
(9/17) 3 awful opps, zero run game. Pass game good #'s
San José State Injury Report

Nevada on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	NEV Off	SJSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#39	#84
SuccessSuc	#129	#79
ExplosiveExp	#110	#60
PPAPPA	#128	#104
PowerPwr	#46	#71
SP+SP+	#106	#90
Pts POPPO	#132	#74
HavocHav	#131	#102

Nevada Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	NEV Off	SJSU Def
Run GameRun	#70	#96
Run SuccessRSuc	#116	#91
Run ExplRExp	#78	#88
PPAExp	#107	#121
Run BlockR Blk	#50	-
OL YdsOLY	#127	#126
Stuff RateStuff	#117	#113
TackleTak	-	#117

Nevada Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	NEV Off	SJSU Def
Pass GamePass	#23	#37
Pass SuccessPSuc	#132	#60
Pass ExplPExl	#88	#80
PPAExp	#132	#80
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#80	#121
F7 HavocF7	#133	#104
DB HavocDB	#89	#80

San José State on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 63%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat	SJSU Off	NEV Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#86	#119
SuccessSuc	#29	#122
ExplosiveExp	#12	#100
PPAPPA	#22	#101
PowerPwr	#102	#108
SP+SP+	#73	#113
Pts POPPO	#81	#71
HavocHav	#62	#112

San José State Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 63%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat	SJSU Off	NEV Def
Run GameRun	#90	#132
Run SuccessRSuc	#23	#110
Run ExplRExp	#21	#104
PPAExp	#22	#97
Run BlockR Blk	#131	-
OL YdsOLY	#48	#107
Stuff RateStuff	#122	#90
TackleTak	-	#131

San José State Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 63%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat	SJSU Off	NEV Def
Pass GamePass	#27	#75
Pass SuccessPSuc	#51	#126
Pass ExplPExl	#28	#83
PPAExp	#44	#99
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#130	#58
F7 HavocF7	#61	#99
DB HavocDB	#59	#99

Program Comparison
SJSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'24 Profile: Remains Average G5

NEV 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Spartan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 6
San José State -7.0 (51.5)
San José State won vs Nevada this year (35-31)

Previous Matchups
Nevada beat San José State last year (55-10)
San José State beat Nevada in 2024 (35-31)

NEV's OC Matt Lubick (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brendon Lewis	211	312	68%	2290	16	7	7.3
Chubba Purdy (Tr)	18	25	72%	239	1	1	9.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Brendon Lewis	157	775	8	4.9	67
Savion Red (Tr)	119	687	8	5.8	69
Pat Garwo III	55	246	5	4.5	25
Sean Dollars	47	165	0	3.5	26

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaden Smith	62	849	7	13.7	62
Cortez Braham	56	724	4	12.9	57
Marcus Bellon	39	522	4	13.4	63
Caleb Ramseur	8	106	1	13.3	44

View Nevada's Full Roster

NEV's DC Kane Ioane (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kitan Crawford (Tr)	76	3	0	1	6
Drue Watts	65	5	1	0	3
Tongiaki Mateialona	61	9	2	0	2
Stone Combs	58	3	1	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Henry Ikahihifo	43	8	4	3	0
Kristopher Ross	29	6	3	3	2
Tongiaki Mateialona	61	9	2	0	2
Jonathan Maldonado	17	3	2	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Michael Coats Jr.	41	1	0	10
Kitan Crawford (Tr)	76	3	1	6
Chad Brown	47	5	0	6

SJSU's OC Craig Stutzmann (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Walker Eget	188	328	57%	2504	13	10	7.6
Emmett Brown (Tr)	125	217	58%	1621	16	5	7.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Floyd Chalk IV (Tr)	154	721	10	4.7	66
Jabari Bates	59	254	1	4.3	31
Lamar Radcliffe	33	141	1	4.3	18
Walker Eget	29	99	0	3.4	32

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nick Nash	104	1382	16	13.3	45
Justin Lockhart	53	983	5	18.5	57
Treyshun Hurry (Tr)	28	482	2	17.2	31
Matthew Coleman	34	401	2	11.8	33

View San José State's Full Roster

SJSU's DC Derrick Odum (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Pollard	115	14	2	2	3
Robert Rahimi (Tr)	82	6	1	1	5
Isiah Revis	71	6	1	2	5
Taniela Latu	71	7	1	3	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Soane Toia	55	10	5	4	0
John Ward	46	7	3	4	1
Jordan Cobbs	69	8	3	1	1
Jordan Pollard	115	14	2	2	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Michael Dansby	37	1	0	0	6
D.J. Harvey	58	7	2	0	6
Isiah Revis	71	6	1	2	5