Air Force at Nevada - 2024 Matchup Preview

Air Force Falcons at Nevada Wolf Pack

Saturday, November 23rd 2024 (10:30 PM EST)
Nevada -3 (44.5) (-148) Open: -3.5
Air Force 22 - Nevada: 19 (Mountain West)

Falcons (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (130 - 82)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (32 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

NEV coming off BYE
AFA is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Nevada -5.5 (SP+ AFA -3.5)
Projected Score: AFA: 22 - NEV: 27 (49)
NEV Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
AFA Travel: 801 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Wolf Pack (3 - 10) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Jeff Choate (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 18 - 28 (20 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 10 (#114)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
AFA Players
NEV Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Air Force's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Air Force vs Merrimack	-30.5	47.5	W 21 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/7	Air Force vs San José State	-1.5	43.5	L 7 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/14	Air Force at Baylor	+17.5	40.5	L 3 - 31	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Air Force at Wyoming	-4.0	33.5	L 19 - 31	O	N
Sat 10/5	Air Force vs Navy	+10.0	37.0	L 7 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/12	Air Force at New Mexico	+7.0	56.0	L 37 - 52	O	N
Sat 10/19	Air Force vs Colorado State	+6.0	43.5	L 13 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	Air Force at Army	+18.0	38.5	L 3 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/9	Air Force vs Fresno State	+9.5	40.5	W 36 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Air Force vs Oregon State	+3.0	44.5	W 28 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Air Force at Nevada	+3.0	44.5	W 22 - 19	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Air Force at San Diego State	-6.5	43.5	W 31 - 20	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule

Nevada's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/24	Nevada vs SMU	+28.0	55.5	L 24 - 29	U	Y
Sat 8/31	Nevada at Troy	+7.5	44.5	W 28 - 26	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Nevada vs Georgia Southern	-1.5	56.5	L 17 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/14	Nevada at Minnesota	+17.5	44.5	L 0 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/21	Nevada vs Eastern Washington	-13.5	54.5	W 49 - 16	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Nevada at San José State	+7.0	51.5	L 31 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Nevada vs Oregon State	+3.0	47.0	W 42 - 37	O	Y
Fri 10/18	Nevada vs Fresno State	+3.0	50.0	L 21 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Nevada at Hawai'i	+2.5	42.0	L 13 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/2	Nevada vs Colorado State	+2.0	45.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/9	Nevada at Boise State	+23.5	60.5	L 21 - 28	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Nevada vs Air Force	-3.0	44.5	L 19 - 22	U	N
Sat 11/30	Nevada at UNLV	+17.5	54.5	L 14 - 38	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA	#26 (.28)	45% (31)	29.8	46% (34)	3.48 (8)	281	41% (74)	85	4.05 (52)	#28 (.12)	39% (38)	30.3	37% (16)	42% (79)	3.96 (85)	24.8	1.3	1.1
NEV	#128 (.04)	35% (129)	17.6	39% (116)	2.67 (127)	125	32% (132)	175	2.54 (132)	#101 (.24)	46% (122)	27.5	47% (110)	47% (126)	3.83 (71)	58.5	1.7	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NEV		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Offense	13	29.8	32.2	45.5%	4.05	1.3	20	366	281	85	5.1	85%	14%	46%	41%	9%	.28
NEV Defense	12	27.5	25.2	46.5%	3.83	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	47%	47%	14%	.24

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Defense	13	30.3	32.8	39.3%	3.96	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	37%	42%	14%	.12
NEV Offense	12	17.6	19.7	35.4%	2.54	1.7	17	300	125	175	3.4	55%	45%	39%	32%	22%	.04

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Air Force	13	33:26	19.6	46%	68%	3	24.8	1.3	1.1	4.5	2	2	30.6
Nevada	12	30:19	16.7	30%	43%	6.8	58.5	1.7	1.3	4	1.3	3	26.8

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Offense	13	85% (1)	46% (34)	54.7	280.6	5.1	36 (4)	.27 (14)	3.48 (8)	80% (19)	8% (22)	1.02 (56)
NEV Defense	12	51% (81)	47% (110)	-	-	-	-	.19 (97)	3.28 (107)	67% (30)	9% (99)	1.07 (104)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Defense	13	49% (58)	37% (16)	-	-	-	-	.06 (26)	2.67 (13)	79% (106)	9% (93)	0.99 (61)
NEV Offense	12	55% (33)	39% (116)	36.9	124.8	3.4	14 (106)	.08 (107)	2.67 (127)	55% (132)	16% (133)	0.98 (78)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Offense	13	14% (133)	41% (74)	4.2	8.1	85	10.5	20.1	7 (129)	6 (14)	.51 (9)	2.3 (1)	23% (1)	27% (93)	.39 (48)	2% (1)	2.3 (7)
NEV Defense	12	48% (52)	47% (126)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.32 (99)	1.6 (83)	30% (102)	30% (68)	.28 (50)	5% (99)	2 (37)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Defense	13	50% (80)	42% (79)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.21 (36)	1.5 (19)	34% (44)	29% (45)	.34 (85)	5% (103)	2 (59)
NEV Offense	12	45% (102)	32% (132)	15.9	28.8	175.2	6.1	11	6 (133)	12 (85)	.02 (132)	1.5 (88)	34% (107)	26% (109)	.06 (132)	6% (89)	1.7 (130)

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -22.84 #125
Air Force's Offense Rating: 14.34 #112
Air Force's Defense Rating: 16.43 #117
2024 Talent Rating: 85.00 #132
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Air Force's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Air Force's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.7 #111
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.8 #120
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.5 #76

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 190
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -22.84 Nevada: -11.785

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -11.7 Nevada: -15.2

Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -11.785 #109
Nevada's Offense Rating: 22.53 #46
Nevada's Defense Rating: 14.97 #108
2024 Talent Rating: 214.00 #111
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #65
Nevada's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 10.0
Nevada's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.2 #117
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #106
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #113

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 190
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 29.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 32.2
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Air Force's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Nevada 27
Air Force 22

Projected Total Points: 49

Nevada Scoring
Offense: 17.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 19.7
Defense: 27.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.2

Nevada's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 10
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/23	Nevada	19	Air Force	22	Nevada -3	Air Force	44.5	Under
2022	09/23	Air Force	48	Nevada	20	Air Force -24	Air Force	47.0	Over
2021	11/19	Nevada	39	Air Force	41	Air Force -1.5	Air Force	53.5	Over
2018	09/29	Air Force	25	Nevada	28	Air Force -3.5	Nevada	64.0	Under
2017	10/20	Nevada	42	Air Force	45	Air Force -6.5	Nevada	65.0	Over
2014	11/15	Air Force	45	Nevada	38	Nevada -2.5	Air Force	0
2013	09/28	Nevada	45	Air Force	42	Nevada -7	Air Force	0
2012	10/26	Air Force	48	Nevada	31

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Nevada	2	2	3 Overs
Air Force	6	5	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 4	3 - 4	1 - 3	2 - 1
Road Teams	4 - 4	4 - 3	1 - 2	3 - 1

(#125) AFA at (#109) NEV

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	AFA	NEV
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#125	#109
SP+SP+	#111	#117
Perf GradeGrade	#97	#94
OffenseOff	#72	#39
DefenseDef	#113	#119
Spec TeamsST	#129	#133
TalentTal	#132	#111
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#65

Air Force Notes(11/18) Rgame mauled Oreg St. Hayes good, Def great
(11/14) Have found their QB in So. Quentin Hayes
(11/3) QBs Hayes/Johnson vs Army, both bad, Rgame bad
(10/20) QB Busha started, 10-25. Rgame 3.2 ypc in CSU L
(10/18) QBs now 3 co-starters, Busha (orig #1) out of mix
(10/12) Killed by N Mex, Rgame 325 yds but Def torched
(10/8) Market hasn't caught up to how awful AFA is TY
(9/14) 10 pts in 2 losses. 3.2 ypc avg. Bad AFA team TY
(8/11) AF fell apart late LY losing 4 straight
(8/1) Restock year TY, Def rebuild, 6-6 type
(7/30) Calhoun & staff win 9+ games every year since '19
(7/30) Last in CFB in return prod, but normal at AFA
Air Force Injury Report

Nevada Notes(11/3) Outgained CSU but 2 TOs, bad 3rd down cost em
(10/19) 2nd H vs Fresno, 4 Punts, 2 loss of downs
(10/19) Rgame abysmal, 84 yds (2.2 ypc) vs Fresno in L
(10/19) QB Lewis benched for Purdy in Fresno game
(10/12) QB Lewis/RB Red almost 300 rush yds over Oreg St
(9/23) Choate a huge upgrade over prev staff
(9/1) QB Lewis v mobile, better passer than anticipated
(9/1) Played w/ SMU, W @ Troy. Nev vastly improved TY
(7/30) Worst team in CFB in '23, fired everyone
(7/30) Off near worst in '23, QB Purdy (Neb)?, WR ?
(7/30) OL has 3 back, RB actually decent. Lost AA Kicker
(7/30) Def near worst in 23, rebuild. All will take time
Nevada Injury Report

Air Force on Offense

Option Offense 82%, Pass: 18%
CategoryCat	AFA Off	NEV Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#72	#119
SuccessSuc	#31	#122
ExplosiveExp	#115	#100
PPAPPA	#26	#101
PowerPwr	#112	#108
SP+SP+	#120	#113
Pts POPPO	#52	#71
HavocHav	#3	#112

Air Force Run Game

Option Offense 82%, Pass: 18%
CategoryCat	AFA Off	NEV Def
Run GameRun	#109	#132
Run SuccessRSuc	#34	#110
Run ExplRExp	#56	#104
PPAExp	#14	#97
Run BlockR Blk	#17	-
OL YdsOLY	#8	#107
Stuff RateStuff	#1	#90
TackleTak	-	#131

Air Force Pass Game

Option Offense 82%, Pass: 18%
CategoryCat	AFA Off	NEV Def
Pass GamePass	#122	#75
Pass SuccessPSuc	#74	#126
Pass ExplPExl	#1	#83
PPAExp	#9	#99
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#133	#58
F7 HavocF7	#22	#99
DB HavocDB	#1	#99

Nevada on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	NEV Off	AFA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#39	#113
SuccessSuc	#129	#38
ExplosiveExp	#110	#42
PPAPPA	#128	#28
PowerPwr	#46	#117
SP+SP+	#106	#76
Pts POPPO	#132	#85
HavocHav	#131	#113

Nevada Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	NEV Off	AFA Def
Run GameRun	#70	#109
Run SuccessRSuc	#116	#16
Run ExplRExp	#78	#61
PPAExp	#107	#26
Run BlockR Blk	#50	-
OL YdsOLY	#127	#13
Stuff RateStuff	#117	#44
TackleTak	-	#61

Nevada Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	NEV Off	AFA Def
Pass GamePass	#23	#115
Pass SuccessPSuc	#132	#79
Pass ExplPExl	#88	#19
PPAExp	#132	#36
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#80	#96
F7 HavocF7	#133	#93
DB HavocDB	#89	#103

Program Comparison
NEV 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

AFA 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'24 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Mackay Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 13
Nevada -3.0 (44.5)
Air Force won at Nevada this year (22-19)

Previous Matchups
Air Force beat Nevada in 2024 (22-19)

AFA's OC Mike Thiessen (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
John Busha	29	79	37%	415	1	5	5.3
Quentin Hayes	25	43	58%	455	3	2	10.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dylan Carson	138	600	5	4.3	50
Quentin Hayes	126	466	7	3.7	30
Owen Allen	77	335	2	4.4	14
Cade Harris	48	279	4	5.8	30

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cade Harris	23	368	2	16.0	76
Quin Smith	10	207	1	20.7	39
Jared Roznos	5	109	0	21.8	52
Bruin Fleischmann	5	104	0	20.8	43

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC Brian Knorr (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Camby Goff	67	3	0	1	3
Jamari Bellamy	64	3	0	0	4
Osaro Aihie	58	2	2	0	1
Lincoln Tuioti-Mariner	50	8	2	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
David Santiago	37	5	4	2	3
Peyton Zdroik	18	7	3	3	0
Osaro Aihie	58	2	2	0	1
Lincoln Tuioti-Mariner	50	8	2	1	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jamari Bellamy	64	3	0	4
Trey Williams	31	1	0	4
Camby Goff	67	3	1	3

NEV's OC Matt Lubick (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brendon Lewis	211	312	68%	2290	16	7	7.3
Chubba Purdy (Tr)	18	25	72%	239	1	1	9.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Brendon Lewis	157	775	8	4.9	67
Savion Red (Tr)	119	687	8	5.8	69
Pat Garwo III	55	246	5	4.5	25
Sean Dollars	47	165	0	3.5	26

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaden Smith	62	849	7	13.7	62
Cortez Braham	56	724	4	12.9	57
Marcus Bellon	39	522	4	13.4	63
Caleb Ramseur	8	106	1	13.3	44

View Nevada's Full Roster

NEV's DC Kane Ioane (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kitan Crawford (Tr)	76	3	0	1	6
Drue Watts	65	5	1	0	3
Tongiaki Mateialona	61	9	2	0	2
Stone Combs	58	3	1	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Henry Ikahihifo	43	8	4	3	0
Kristopher Ross	29	6	3	3	2
Tongiaki Mateialona	61	9	2	0	2
Jonathan Maldonado	17	3	2	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Michael Coats Jr.	41	1	0	10
Kitan Crawford (Tr)	76	3	1	6
Chad Brown	47	5	0	6