Air Force Falcons at Nevada Wolf Pack
Saturday, November 23rd 2024 (10:30 PM EST)
Nevada -3 (44.5) (-148) Open: -3.5
Air Force 22 - Nevada: 19 (Mountain West)
Falcons (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (130 - 82)
Avg Score : 19 - 23 (19 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Coach Troy Calhoun (130 - 82)
Avg Score : 19 - 23 (19 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
NEV coming off BYE
AFA is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Nevada -5.5 (SP+ AFA -3.5)
Projected Score: AFA: 21 - NEV: 26 (47)
NEV Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
AFA Travel: 801 miles, 1 hrs ahead
AFA is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Nevada -5.5 (SP+ AFA -3.5)
Projected Score: AFA: 21 - NEV: 26 (47)
NEV Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
AFA Travel: 801 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Wolf Pack (3 - 10) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Jeff Choate (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 23 - 29 (28 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 10 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Coach Jeff Choate (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 23 - 29 (28 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 10 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
| Air Force's 2024 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Sat 8/31 | Air Force vs Merrimack | -30.5 | 47.5 | W 21 - 6 | U | N | |
| Sat 9/7 | Air Force vs San José State | -1.5 | 43.5 | L 7 - 17 | U | N | |
| Sat 9/14 | Air Force at Baylor | +17.5 | 40.5 | L 3 - 31 | U | N | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 9/28 | Air Force at Wyoming | -4.0 | 33.5 | L 19 - 31 | O | N | |
| Sat 10/5 | Air Force vs Navy | +10.0 | 37.0 | L 7 - 34 | O | N | |
| Sat 10/12 | Air Force at New Mexico | +7.0 | 56.0 | L 37 - 52 | O | N | |
| Sat 10/19 | Air Force vs Colorado State | +6.0 | 43.5 | L 13 - 21 | U | N | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 11/2 | Air Force at Army | +18.0 | 38.5 | L 3 - 20 | U | Y | |
| Sat 11/9 | Air Force vs Fresno State | +9.5 | 40.5 | W 36 - 28 | O | Y | |
| Sat 11/16 | Air Force vs Oregon State | +3.0 | 44.5 | W 28 - 0 | U | Y | |
| Sat 11/23 | Air Force at Nevada | +3.0 | 44.5 | W 22 - 19 | U | Y | |
| Sat 11/30 | Air Force at San Diego State | -6.5 | 43.5 | W 31 - 20 | O | Y | |
Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 2
Predictions for Air Force's Schedule
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 2
| Nevada's 2024 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Sat 8/24 | Nevada vs SMU | +28.0 | 55.5 | L 24 - 29 | U | Y | |
| Sat 8/31 | Nevada at Troy | +7.5 | 44.5 | W 28 - 26 | O | Y | |
| Sat 9/7 | Nevada vs Georgia Southern | -1.5 | 56.5 | L 17 - 20 | U | N | |
| Sat 9/14 | Nevada at Minnesota | +17.5 | 44.5 | L 0 - 27 | U | N | |
| Sat 9/21 | Nevada vs Eastern Washington | -13.5 | 54.5 | W 49 - 16 | O | Y | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Nevada at San José State | +7.0 | 51.5 | L 31 - 35 | O | Y | |
| Sat 10/12 | Nevada vs Oregon State | +3.0 | 47.0 | W 42 - 37 | O | Y | |
| Fri 10/18 | Nevada vs Fresno State | +3.0 | 50.0 | L 21 - 24 | U | Y | |
| Sat 10/26 | Nevada at Hawai'i | +2.5 | 42.0 | L 13 - 34 | O | N | |
| Sat 11/2 | Nevada vs Colorado State | +2.0 | 45.5 | L 21 - 38 | O | N | |
| Sat 11/9 | Nevada at Boise State | +23.5 | 60.5 | L 21 - 28 | U | Y | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 11/23 | Nevada vs Air Force | -3.0 | 44.5 | L 19 - 22 | U | N | |
| Sat 11/30 | Nevada at UNLV | +17.5 | 54.5 | L 14 - 38 | U | N | |
Total: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 4, Poor: 1
Predictions for Nevada's Schedule
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 4, Poor: 1
Important Stats (2024)
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFA | #103 (.13) | 42% (77) | 18.9 | 45% (60) | 3.03 (68) | 225 | 31% (131) | 90 | 4.02 (56) | #88 (.2) | 42% (68) | 23.3 | 41% (47) | 43% (89) | 3.97 (84) | 28 | 1.3 | 1 |
| NEV | #55 (.21) | 45% (46) | 23.1 | 47% (33) | 3.06 (59) | 164 | 42% (65) | 213 | 3.88 (73) | #110 (.24) | 46% (117) | 28.8 | 49% (121) | 43% (92) | 4.33 (114) | 73.1 | 1.2 | 1 |
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFA | #103 (.13) | 42% (77) | 45% (60) | 3.03 (68) | 225 | 31% (131) | 90 | 4.02 (56) | #88 (.2) | 42% (68) | 41% (47) | 43% (89) | 3.97 (84) | 28 | 1.3 | 1 | ||
| NEV | #55 (.21) | 45% (46) | 47% (33) | 3.06 (59) | 164 | 42% (65) | 213 | 3.88 (73) | #110 (.24) | 46% (117) | 49% (121) | 43% (92) | 4.33 (114) | 73.1 | 1.2 | 1 |
Overall Stats 2024
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFA Offense | 12 | 18.9 | 19.2 | 42.1% | 4.02 | 1.3 | 18 | 314 | 225 | 90 | 4 | 82% | 18% | 45% | 31% | 12% | .13 |
| NEV Defense | 13 | 28.8 | 26.6 | 46.4% | 4.33 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | 56% | 44% | 49% | 43% | 14% | .24 |
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFA Defense | 12 | 23.3 | 28.8 | 41.7% | 3.97 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | 56% | 44% | 41% | 43% | 15% | .2 |
| NEV Offense | 13 | 23.1 | 27.6 | 44.5% | 3.88 | 1.2 | 19 | 377 | 164 | 213 | 4.6 | 53% | 47% | 47% | 42% | 16% | .21 |
Additional Stats 2024
| Teams | Games | Possession Time | 1st Downs PG | 3rd Down % | 4th Down % | Penalties PG | Penalty Yds PG | Off TO PG | Def TO PG | TFL PG | Sacks PG | D/ST TDs | Avg Field Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 12 | 33:58 | 17.9 | 42% | 64% | 3 | 28 | 1.3 | 1 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0 | 28.6 |
| Nevada | 13 | 31:02 | 19.5 | 45% | 52% | 7.6 | 73.1 | 1.2 | 1 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 1 | 26.4 |
Run Game Stats (2024)
Pass Game Stats (2024)
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFA Offense | 12 | 82% (2) | 45% (60) | 55.7 | 224.7 | 4 | 24 (45) | .15 (60) | 3.03 (68) | 83% (11) | 9% (55) | 0.88 (112) |
| NEV Defense | 13 | 56% (126) | 49% (121) | - | - | - | - | .27 (130) | 3.17 (91) | 80% (109) | 8% (119) | 1.08 (107) |
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFA Defense | 12 | 56% (120) | 41% (47) | - | - | - | - | .1 (56) | 3.02 (73) | 66% (28) | 10% (63) | 1.07 (101) |
| NEV Offense | 13 | 53% (47) | 47% (33) | 35.4 | 164.2 | 4.6 | 21 (59) | .16 (51) | 3.06 (59) | 69% (93) | 10% (81) | 0.97 (64) |
Pass Game Stats (2024)
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFA Offense | 12 | 18% (133) | 31% (131) | 5.2 | 11.5 | 89.8 | 7.8 | 17.4 | 5 (134) | 10 (63) | .09 (124) | 2.1 (1) | 27% (14) | 25% (124) | .18 (111) | 3% (2) | 2.1 (66) |
| NEV Defense | 13 | 44% (11) | 43% (92) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 11 (52) | .2 (50) | 1.5 (49) | 30% (103) | 39% (130) | .46 (119) | 7% (47) | 1.9 (42) |
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFA Defense | 12 | 44% (16) | 43% (89) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 4 (125) | .33 (107) | 1.6 (63) | 31% (79) | 30% (54) | .3 (63) | 5% (120) | 2 (60) |
| NEV Offense | 13 | 47% (87) | 42% (65) | 19 | 28.2 | 212.6 | 7.6 | 11.2 | 19 (65) | 8 (40) | .27 (57) | 1.6 (71) | 32% (69) | 32% (60) | .42 (29) | 6% (74) | 2.1 (59) |
Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -22.84 #125
Air Force's Offense Rating: 14.34 #112
Air Force's Defense Rating: 16.43 #117
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Air Force's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Air Force's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.7 #111
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.8 #120
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.5 #76
Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Air Force's Power Rating: -22.84 #125
Air Force's Offense Rating: 14.34 #112
Air Force's Defense Rating: 16.43 #117
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Air Force's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Air Force's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.7 #111
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.8 #120
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.5 #76
Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -22.84 Nevada: -11.785
SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -11.7 Nevada: -15.2
Air Force: -22.84 Nevada: -11.785
SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -11.7 Nevada: -15.2
Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -11.785 #109
Nevada's Offense Rating: 22.53 #46
Nevada's Defense Rating: 14.97 #108
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #65
Nevada's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 10.0
Nevada's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.2 #117
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #106
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #113
Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Nevada's Power Rating: -11.785 #109
Nevada's Offense Rating: 22.53 #46
Nevada's Defense Rating: 14.97 #108
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #65
Nevada's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 10.0
Nevada's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.2 #117
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #106
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #113
Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Air Force Scoring
Offense: 18.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.2
Defense: 23.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.8
Air Force's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Offense: 18.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.2
Defense: 23.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.8
Air Force's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Nevada 26
Air Force 21
Total Points: 47
Nevada 26
Air Force 21
Total Points: 47
Nevada Scoring
Offense: 23.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.6
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 26.6
Nevada's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 10
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Record at home: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Offense: 23.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.6
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 26.6
Nevada's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 10
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Record at home: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
| Year | Date | Home | Score | Away | Score | Winner | Spread | Cover | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 11/23 | Nevada | 19 | Air Force | 22 | Air Force | Nevada -3 | Air Force | 44.5 | Under |
| 2022 | 09/23 | Air Force | 48 | Nevada | 20 | Air Force | Air Force -24 | Air Force | 47.0 | Over |
| 2021 | 11/19 | Nevada | 39 | Air Force | 41 | Air Force | Air Force -1.5 | Air Force | 53.5 | Over |
| 2018 | 09/29 | Air Force | 25 | Nevada | 28 | Nevada | Air Force -3.5 | Nevada | 64.0 | Under |
| 2017 | 10/20 | Nevada | 42 | Air Force | 45 | Air Force | Air Force -6.5 | Nevada | 65.0 | Over |
| 2014 | 11/15 | Air Force | 45 | Nevada | 38 | Air Force | Nevada -2.5 | Air Force | 0 | |
| 2013 | 09/28 | Nevada | 45 | Air Force | 42 | Nevada | Nevada -7 | Air Force | 0 | |
| 2012 | 10/26 | Air Force | 48 | Nevada | 31 | Air Force |
| Team | Wins | Covers | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada | 2 | 2 | 3 Overs |
| Air Force | 6 | 5 | 2 Unders |
| Wins | Covers | Favs | Dogs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Teams | 4 - 4 | 3 - 4 | 1 - 3 | 2 - 1 |
| Road Teams | 4 - 4 | 4 - 3 | 1 - 2 | 3 - 1 |
(#125) Air Force Info
Power Rating: -22.84 #125
Offense Rating: 14.34 #112
Defense Rating: 16.43 #117
Overall SP+ Rating: -11.7 #111
Offense SP+ Rating: 17.8 #120
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.5 #76
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Team Profile
Option Offense 82%, Pass: 18%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.02 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Awful Pass Success 31%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.97 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 41%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
Air Force has won 2 straight
Air Force has lost 4 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 2 - 4 (3 - 3 - 0 vs Spread )
Air Force Notes
(11/14) Have found their QB in So. Quentin Hayes
(11/3) QBs Hayes/Johnson vs Army, both bad, Rgame bad
(10/20) QB Busha started, 10-25. Rgame 3.2 ypc in CSU L
(10/18) QBs now 3 co-starters, Busha (orig #1) out of mix
(10/12) Killed by N Mex, Rgame 325 yds but Def torched
(10/8) Market hasn't caught up to how awful AFA is TY
(9/14) 10 pts in 2 losses. 3.2 ypc avg. Bad AFA team TY
(8/11) AF fell apart late LY losing 4 straight
(8/1) Restock year TY, Def rebuild, 6-6 type
(7/30) Calhoun & staff win 9+ games every year since '19
Air Force Highlights
Air Force has Really Good Running Game (#52)
Air Force does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#9)
Air Force commits very few Penalties (#6)
Air Force Deficiencies
Air Force has a really bad Offense
Air Force offense is not Explosive (#117)
Air Force pass game is really bad (#83)
Air Force does not Sack the QB (#13)
Power Rating: -22.84 #125
Offense Rating: 14.34 #112
Defense Rating: 16.43 #117
Overall SP+ Rating: -11.7 #111
Offense SP+ Rating: 17.8 #120
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.5 #76
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Team Profile
Option Offense 82%, Pass: 18%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.02 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Awful Pass Success 31%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.97 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 41%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
Air Force has won 2 straight
Air Force has lost 4 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 2 - 4 (3 - 3 - 0 vs Spread )
Air Force Notes
(11/14) Have found their QB in So. Quentin Hayes
(11/3) QBs Hayes/Johnson vs Army, both bad, Rgame bad
(10/20) QB Busha started, 10-25. Rgame 3.2 ypc in CSU L
(10/18) QBs now 3 co-starters, Busha (orig #1) out of mix
(10/12) Killed by N Mex, Rgame 325 yds but Def torched
(10/8) Market hasn't caught up to how awful AFA is TY
(9/14) 10 pts in 2 losses. 3.2 ypc avg. Bad AFA team TY
(8/11) AF fell apart late LY losing 4 straight
(8/1) Restock year TY, Def rebuild, 6-6 type
(7/30) Calhoun & staff win 9+ games every year since '19
Air Force Highlights
Air Force has Really Good Running Game (#52)
Air Force does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#9)
Air Force commits very few Penalties (#6)
Air Force Deficiencies
Air Force has a really bad Offense
Air Force offense is not Explosive (#117)
Air Force pass game is really bad (#83)
Air Force does not Sack the QB (#13)
| Performance GradesPerf Grades | ||
|---|---|---|
| CategoryCat | NEV | AFA |
| OverallOver | #67 | #69 |
| OffenseOff | #35 | #59 |
| DefenseDef | #98 | #93 |
| Special TeamsST | #110 | #106 |
| PassingPass | #20 | #99 |
| RushingRush | #50 | #78 |
| Run BlockRBLK | #40 | #15 |
| Pass BlockPBLK | #70 | #116 |
| Route RunningWR Rt | #30 | #93 |
| TacklingTkl | #115 | #54 |
| Run DefenseR Def | #107 | #86 |
| Pass Rush DefPRush | #52 | #82 |
| Coverage DefCov | #61 | #93 |
Rematch from Week 13
Nevada -3.0 (44.5)
Air Force won at Nevada this year (22-19)
Previous Matchups
Air Force beat Nevada last year (22-19)
Air Force beat Nevada in 2022 (48-20)
Weather Forecast
Playing in Mackay Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Team Information
Injuries: AFA | NEV
Depth Chart: AFA | NEV
Rosters: AFA | NEV
(#109) Nevada Info
Power Rating: -11.785 #109
Offense Rating: 22.53 #46
Defense Rating: 14.97 #108
Overall SP+ Rating: -15.2 #117
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #106
Defense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #113
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #65
Expected Record: 3.0 - 10.0
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 45%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.88 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Avg Pass Success 42%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 46%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.33 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 49%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position
Nevada has lost 4 straight
Nevada has lost 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 5 (3 - 3 - 1 vs Spread)
Nevada Notes
(10/19) 2nd H vs Fresno, 4 Punts, 2 loss of downs
(10/19) Rgame abysmal, 84 yds (2.2 ypc) vs Fresno in L
(10/19) QB Lewis benched for Purdy in Fresno game
(10/12) QB Lewis/RB Red almost 300 rush yds over Oreg St
(9/23) Choate a huge upgrade over prev staff
(9/1) QB Lewis v mobile, better passer than anticipated
(9/1) Played w/ SMU, W @ Troy. Nev vastly improved TY
(7/30) Worst team in CFB in '23, fired everyone
(7/30) Off near worst in '23, QB Purdy (Neb)?, WR ?
(7/30) OL has 3 back, RB actually decent. Lost AA Kicker
Nevada Highlights
Nevada Deficiencies
Nevada Commits a Lot of Penalties (#38)
Nevada does not Sack the QB (#31)
Nevada has a bad defense (#124)
Nevada has a bad red zone defense (#101)
Power Rating: -11.785 #109
Offense Rating: 22.53 #46
Defense Rating: 14.97 #108
Overall SP+ Rating: -15.2 #117
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #106
Defense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #113
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #65
Expected Record: 3.0 - 10.0
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 45%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.88 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Avg Pass Success 42%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 46%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.33 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 49%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position
Nevada has lost 4 straight
Nevada has lost 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 5 (3 - 3 - 1 vs Spread)
Nevada Notes
(10/19) 2nd H vs Fresno, 4 Punts, 2 loss of downs
(10/19) Rgame abysmal, 84 yds (2.2 ypc) vs Fresno in L
(10/19) QB Lewis benched for Purdy in Fresno game
(10/12) QB Lewis/RB Red almost 300 rush yds over Oreg St
(9/23) Choate a huge upgrade over prev staff
(9/1) QB Lewis v mobile, better passer than anticipated
(9/1) Played w/ SMU, W @ Troy. Nev vastly improved TY
(7/30) Worst team in CFB in '23, fired everyone
(7/30) Off near worst in '23, QB Purdy (Neb)?, WR ?
(7/30) OL has 3 back, RB actually decent. Lost AA Kicker
Nevada Highlights
Nevada Deficiencies
Nevada Commits a Lot of Penalties (#38)
Nevada does not Sack the QB (#31)
Nevada has a bad defense (#124)
Nevada has a bad red zone defense (#101)
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Busha | 29 | 79 | 37% | 415 | 1 | 5 | 5.3 |
| Quentin Hayes | 25 | 43 | 58% | 455 | 3 | 2 | 10.6 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Carson | 138 | 600 | 5 | 4.3 | 50 |
| Quentin Hayes | 126 | 466 | 7 | 3.7 | 30 |
| Owen Allen | 77 | 335 | 2 | 4.4 | 14 |
| Cade Harris | 48 | 279 | 4 | 5.8 | 30 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Harris | 23 | 368 | 2 | 16.0 | 76 |
| Quin Smith | 10 | 207 | 1 | 20.7 | 39 |
| Jared Roznos | 5 | 109 | 0 | 21.8 | 52 |
| Bruin Fleischmann | 5 | 104 | 0 | 20.8 | 43 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camby Goff | 67 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Jamari Bellamy | 64 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Osaro Aihie | 58 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Lincoln Tuioti-Mariner | 50 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Santiago | 37 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| Peyton Zdroik | 18 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Osaro Aihie | 58 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Lincoln Tuioti-Mariner | 50 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamari Bellamy | 64 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Trey Williams | 31 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Camby Goff | 67 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendon Lewis | 211 | 312 | 68% | 2290 | 16 | 7 | 7.3 |
| Chubba Purdy (Tr) | 18 | 25 | 72% | 239 | 1 | 1 | 9.6 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendon Lewis | 157 | 775 | 8 | 4.9 | 67 |
| Savion Red (Tr) | 119 | 687 | 8 | 5.8 | 69 |
| Pat Garwo III | 55 | 246 | 5 | 4.5 | 25 |
| Sean Dollars | 47 | 165 | 0 | 3.5 | 26 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaden Smith | 62 | 849 | 7 | 13.7 | 62 |
| Cortez Braham | 56 | 724 | 4 | 12.9 | 57 |
| Marcus Bellon | 39 | 522 | 4 | 13.4 | 63 |
| Caleb Ramseur | 8 | 106 | 1 | 13.3 | 44 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kitan Crawford (Tr) | 76 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| Drue Watts | 65 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Tongiaki Mateialona | 61 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Stone Combs | 58 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Ikahihifo | 43 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Kristopher Ross | 29 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Tongiaki Mateialona | 61 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Jonathan Maldonado | 17 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Coats Jr. | 41 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| Kitan Crawford (Tr) | 76 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| Chad Brown | 47 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 6 |