Georgia Southern at Nevada - 2024 Matchup Preview

Georgia Southern Eagles at Nevada Wolf Pack

Saturday, September 7th 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
Nevada -1.5 (56.5) (-110) Open: -1.0 | 57.5
Georgia Southern 20 - Nevada: 17

Eagles (8 - 5) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Clay Helton (12 - 14)
Avg Score : 28 - 32 (20 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Georgia Southern -6.5 (SP+ GASO -13.5)
Projected Score: GASO: 30 - NEV: 24 (54)
NEV Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
GASO Travel: 2166 miles, 3 hrs ahead

Wolf Pack (3 - 10) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Jeff Choate (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 18 - 28 (20 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 10 (#114)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
GASO Players
NEV Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Georgia Southern's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Georgia Southern vs Boise State	+13.0	57.5	L 45 - 56	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Georgia Southern at Nevada	+1.5	56.5	W 20 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Georgia Southern vs South Carolina State	-27.5	52.5	W 42 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Georgia Southern at Ole Miss	+35.0	68.5	L 13 - 52	U	N
Sat 9/28	Georgia Southern at Georgia State	+3.5	57.5	W 38 - 21	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Georgia Southern vs Marshall	-1.0	58.5	W 24 - 23	U	N
Sat 10/19	Georgia Southern vs James Madison	+9.5	58.5	W 28 - 14	U	Y
Thu 10/24	Georgia Southern at Old Dominion	-1.0	52.0	L 19 - 47	O	N
Sat 11/2	Georgia Southern at South Alabama	+5.5	60.0	W 34 - 30	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Georgia Southern vs Troy	-7.0	54.0	L 20 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/23	Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina	+2.0	59.5	W 26 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Georgia Southern vs App State	-2.5	60.5	W 29 - 20	U	Y
Thu 12/19	Georgia Southern vs Sam Houston	-3.5	48.0	L 26 - 31	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Georgia Southern's Schedule

Nevada's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/24	Nevada vs SMU	+28.0	55.5	L 24 - 29	U	Y
Sat 8/31	Nevada at Troy	+7.5	44.5	W 28 - 26	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Nevada vs Georgia Southern	-1.5	56.5	L 17 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/14	Nevada at Minnesota	+17.5	44.5	L 0 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/21	Nevada vs Eastern Washington	-13.5	54.5	W 49 - 16	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Nevada at San José State	+7.0	51.5	L 31 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Nevada vs Oregon State	+3.0	47.0	W 42 - 37	O	Y
Fri 10/18	Nevada vs Fresno State	+3.0	50.0	L 21 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Nevada at Hawai'i	+2.5	42.0	L 13 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/2	Nevada vs Colorado State	+2.0	45.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/9	Nevada at Boise State	+23.5	60.5	L 21 - 28	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Nevada vs Air Force	-3.0	44.5	L 19 - 22	U	N
Sat 11/30	Nevada at UNLV	+17.5	54.5	L 14 - 38	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
GASO	#55 (.21)	45% (32)	27.9	48% (21)	3.13 (64)	117	45% (40)	302	3.64 (88)	#118 (.27)	45% (107)	32.3	45% (94)	45% (115)	4.45 (123)	51.8	2.4	1.6
NEV	#128 (.04)	35% (129)	17.6	39% (116)	2.67 (127)	125	32% (132)	175	2.54 (132)	#101 (.24)	46% (122)	27.5	47% (110)	47% (126)	3.83 (71)	58.5	1.7	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
GASO		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NEV		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
GASO Offense	13	27.9	19.5	45.3%	3.64	2.4	23	419	117	302	4	35%	64%	48%	45%	17%	.21
NEV Defense	12	27.5	25.2	46.5%	3.83	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	47%	47%	14%	.24

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
GASO Defense	13	32.3	35.3	44.9%	4.45	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	45%	45%	22%	.27
NEV Offense	12	17.6	19.7	35.4%	2.54	1.7	17	300	125	175	3.4	55%	45%	39%	32%	22%	.04

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Georgia Southern	13	31:06	23.1	46%	59%	5.8	51.8	2.4	1.6	7	1.8	4	30.8
Nevada	12	30:19	16.7	30%	43%	6.8	58.5	1.7	1.3	4	1.3	3	26.8

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
GASO Offense	13	35% (130)	48% (21)	29	117.1	4	16 (89)	.23 (25)	3.13 (64)	78% (35)	10% (63)	1.05 (41)
NEV Defense	12	51% (81)	47% (110)	-	-	-	-	.19 (97)	3.28 (107)	67% (30)	9% (99)	1.07 (104)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
GASO Defense	13	49% (55)	45% (94)	-	-	-	-	.25 (122)	3.16 (85)	72% (59)	14% (7)	1.13 (116)
NEV Offense	12	55% (33)	39% (116)	36.9	124.8	3.4	14 (106)	.08 (107)	2.67 (127)	55% (132)	16% (133)	0.98 (78)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
GASO Offense	13	64% (4)	45% (40)	28.9	44.4	302.2	6.8	10.5	26 (31)	20 (133)	.26 (74)	1.4 (131)	30% (41)	34% (35)	.41 (42)	8% (114)	2.1 (62)
NEV Defense	12	48% (52)	47% (126)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.32 (99)	1.6 (83)	30% (102)	30% (68)	.28 (50)	5% (99)	2 (37)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
GASO Defense	13	50% (81)	45% (115)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.3 (89)	1.5 (32)	31% (96)	35% (120)	.49 (127)	9% (5)	2.1 (81)
NEV Offense	12	45% (102)	32% (132)	15.9	28.8	175.2	6.1	11	6 (133)	12 (85)	.02 (132)	1.5 (88)	34% (107)	26% (109)	.06 (132)	6% (89)	1.7 (130)

Georgia Southern's Power Ratings
Georgia Southern's Power Rating: -8.83 #96
Georgia Southern's Offense Rating: 20.12 #66
Georgia Southern's Defense Rating: 14.04 #102
2024 Talent Rating: 245.00 #98
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Georgia Southern's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Georgia Southern's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.7 #76
Georgia Southern's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #72
Georgia Southern's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #90

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 235.21
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Georgia Southern: -8.83 Nevada: -11.785

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Georgia Southern: -1.7 Nevada: -15.2

Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -11.785 #109
Nevada's Offense Rating: 22.53 #46
Nevada's Defense Rating: 14.97 #108
2024 Talent Rating: 214.00 #111
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #65
Nevada's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 10.0
Nevada's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.2 #117
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #106
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #113

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 190
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Georgia Southern Scoring
Offense: 27.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.5
Defense: 32.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.3

Georgia Southern's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Georgia Southern 30
Nevada 24

Projected Total Points: 54

Nevada Scoring
Offense: 17.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 19.7
Defense: 27.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.2

Nevada's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 10
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/07	Nevada	17	Georgia Southern	20	Nevada -1.5	Georgia Southern	56.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Nevada	0	0	0 Overs
Georgia Southern	1	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

(#96) GASO at (#109) NEV

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	GASO	NEV
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#96	#109
SP+SP+	#76	#117
Perf GradeGrade	#95	#94
OffenseOff	#96	#39
DefenseDef	#90	#119
Spec TeamsST	#74	#133
TalentTal	#98	#111
Blue ChipsBC%	#82	#65

Georgia Southern Notes(11/25) Big W @ Coastal. Beat App & help=SBC title
(11/25) French torced CC, Rgame awful, Def 3 INTs in W
(11/18) Bad L vs Troy, Rgame awful, Pass D awful
(11/3) Big W (S. Al), Outgained (100+) but forced 2 TOs
(10/24) Killed by ODU, gave up 500+ yds, 250+ rushing
(10/20) Rgame 190 (4.8 ypc), Def great in JMU upset
(10/18) QB French (concussion) cleared for JMU game
(10/13) Rgame bad vs Marshall, 21 pt 4Q comeback W
(9/28) Rgame 261 (5.4), French good vs Ga St.
(9/1) Good fight vs Boise, QB French good. Def awful
(8/17) Big year for Helton, need progress
(7/30) QB battle, Williams (IU) vs French, WR look good
Georgia Southern Injury Report

Nevada Notes(11/3) Outgained CSU but 2 TOs, bad 3rd down cost em
(10/19) 2nd H vs Fresno, 4 Punts, 2 loss of downs
(10/19) Rgame abysmal, 84 yds (2.2 ypc) vs Fresno in L
(10/19) QB Lewis benched for Purdy in Fresno game
(10/12) QB Lewis/RB Red almost 300 rush yds over Oreg St
(9/23) Choate a huge upgrade over prev staff
(9/1) QB Lewis v mobile, better passer than anticipated
(9/1) Played w/ SMU, W @ Troy. Nev vastly improved TY
(7/30) Worst team in CFB in '23, fired everyone
(7/30) Off near worst in '23, QB Purdy (Neb)?, WR ?
(7/30) OL has 3 back, RB actually decent. Lost AA Kicker
(7/30) Def near worst in 23, rebuild. All will take time
Nevada Injury Report

Georgia Southern on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	GASO Off	NEV Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#96	#119
SuccessSuc	#32	#122
ExplosiveExp	#95	#100
PPAPPA	#55	#101
PowerPwr	#66	#108
SP+SP+	#72	#113
Pts POPPO	#88	#71
HavocHav	#91	#112

Georgia Southern Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	GASO Off	NEV Def
Run GameRun	#80	#132
Run SuccessRSuc	#21	#110
Run ExplRExp	#41	#104
PPAExp	#25	#97
Run BlockR Blk	#114	-
OL YdsOLY	#64	#107
Stuff RateStuff	#106	#90
TackleTak	-	#131

Georgia Southern Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	GASO Off	NEV Def
Pass GamePass	#87	#75
Pass SuccessPSuc	#40	#126
Pass ExplPExl	#131	#83
PPAExp	#74	#99
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#23	#58
F7 HavocF7	#63	#99
DB HavocDB	#114	#99

Nevada on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	NEV Off	GASO Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#39	#90
SuccessSuc	#129	#107
ExplosiveExp	#110	#83
PPAPPA	#128	#118
PowerPwr	#46	#102
SP+SP+	#106	#90
Pts POPPO	#132	#123
HavocHav	#131	#4

Nevada Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	NEV Off	GASO Def
Run GameRun	#70	#84
Run SuccessRSuc	#116	#94
Run ExplRExp	#78	#116
PPAExp	#107	#122
Run BlockR Blk	#50	-
OL YdsOLY	#127	#85
Stuff RateStuff	#117	#61
TackleTak	-	#64

Nevada Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	NEV Off	GASO Def
Pass GamePass	#23	#77
Pass SuccessPSuc	#132	#115
Pass ExplPExl	#88	#32
PPAExp	#132	#89
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#80	#89
F7 HavocF7	#133	#7
DB HavocDB	#89	#5

Program Comparison
NEV 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

GASO 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'24 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Mackay Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 2
Nevada -1.5 (56.5)
Georgia Southern won at Nevada this year (20-17)

Previous Matchups
Georgia Southern beat Nevada in 2024 (20-17)

GASO's OC Ryan Aplin (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
JC French	269	410	66%	2831	17	11	6.9
Dexter Williams II (Tr)	19	30	63%	248	3	0	8.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jalen White	164	745	14	4.5	49
OJ Arnold	62	315	3	5.1	32
JC French	118	238	2	2.0	19
David Mbadinga	58	229	3	3.9	29

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Derwin Burgess Jr.	59	659	3	11.2	48
Josh Dallas	46	614	6	13.3	59
Dalen Cobb	52	599	4	11.5	55
LV Bunkley-Shelton (Tr)	30	322	0	10.7	34

View Georgia Southern's Full Roster

GASO's DC Brandon Bailey (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marques Watson-Trent	118	8	2	2	1
Davon Gilmore	62	5	3	4	1
Jusfin Meyers	61	3	1	1	1
Chance Gamble (Tr)	48	2	0	0	7

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Davon Gilmore	62	5	3	4	1
Davion Rhodes	22	6	3	1	0
Elhadj Fall	20	5	3	1	1
Marc Stampley II	42	2	2	0	7

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chance Gamble (Tr)	48	2	0	0	7
Marc Stampley II	42	2	2	0	7
Isaac Walker	23	4	2	3	3

NEV's OC Matt Lubick (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brendon Lewis	211	312	68%	2290	16	7	7.3
Chubba Purdy (Tr)	18	25	72%	239	1	1	9.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Brendon Lewis	157	775	8	4.9	67
Savion Red (Tr)	119	687	8	5.8	69
Pat Garwo III	55	246	5	4.5	25
Sean Dollars	47	165	0	3.5	26

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaden Smith	62	849	7	13.7	62
Cortez Braham	56	724	4	12.9	57
Marcus Bellon	39	522	4	13.4	63
Caleb Ramseur	8	106	1	13.3	44

View Nevada's Full Roster

NEV's DC Kane Ioane (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kitan Crawford (Tr)	76	3	0	1	6
Drue Watts	65	5	1	0	3
Tongiaki Mateialona	61	9	2	0	2
Stone Combs	58	3	1	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Henry Ikahihifo	43	8	4	3	0
Kristopher Ross	29	6	3	3	2
Tongiaki Mateialona	61	9	2	0	2
Jonathan Maldonado	17	3	2	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Michael Coats Jr.	41	1	0	10
Kitan Crawford (Tr)	76	3	1	6
Chad Brown	47	5	0	6