San José State at Air Force - 2024 Matchup Preview
San José State logo San José State Spartans at Air Force FalconsAir Force logo
Saturday, September 7th 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
Air Force -1.5 (43.5) (-135)  Open: -6.5 | 45.5
San José State 17 - Air Force: 7  (Mountain West)

 
Spartans (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Ken Niumatalolo (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 28 - 28 (25 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
AFA 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: San José State -7.5  (SP+ SJSU -6)

Projected Score: SJSU: 27 - AFA: 20 (47)
AFA Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
SJSU Travel: 931 miles, 1 hrs behind
Falcons (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (130 - 82)
Avg Score : 19 - 23 (19 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
San José State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29 San José State vs Sacramento State-2.562.5W 42 - 24OY
Sat 9/7 San José State at Air Force+1.543.5W 17 - 7UY
Sat 9/14 San José State vs Kennesaw State-16.541.5W 31 - 10UY
Fri 9/20 San José State at Washington State+13.055.5L 52 - 54OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 San José State vs Nevada-7.051.5W 35 - 31ON
Sat 10/12 San José State at Colorado State+2.555.5L 24 - 31UN
Sat 10/19 San José State vs Wyoming-13.053.0W 24 - 14UN
Sat 10/26 San José State at Fresno State+6.555.0L 10 - 33UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9 San José State at Oregon State+3.058.5W 24 - 13UY
Sat 11/16 San José State vs Boise State+14.562.0L 21 - 42ON
Fri 11/22 San José State vs UNLV+7.559.5L 16 - 27UN
Fri 11/29 San José State vs Stanford-2.554.5W 34 - 31OY
Tue 12/24 San José State vs South Florida+1.566.5L 39 - 41ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for San José State's Schedule
Air Force's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Air Force vs Merrimack-30.547.5W 21 - 6UN
Sat 9/7 Air Force vs San José State-1.543.5L 7 - 17UN
Sat 9/14 Air Force at Baylor+17.540.5L 3 - 31UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28 Air Force at Wyoming-4.033.5L 19 - 31ON
Sat 10/5 Air Force vs Navy+10.037.0L 7 - 34ON
Sat 10/12 Air Force at New Mexico+7.056.0L 37 - 52ON
Sat 10/19 Air Force vs Colorado State+6.043.5L 13 - 21UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2 Air Force at Army+18.038.5L 3 - 20UY
Sat 11/9 Air Force vs Fresno State+9.540.5W 36 - 28OY
Sat 11/16 Air Force vs Oregon State+3.044.5W 28 - 0UY
Sat 11/23 Air Force at Nevada+3.044.5W 22 - 19UY
Sat 11/30 Air Force at San Diego State-6.543.5W 31 - 20OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SJSU#71 (.18)44% (56)28.441% (98)2.27 (133)8846% (28)3223.6 (96)#27 (.1)41% (57)27.542% (66)39% (47)3.58 (44)61.52.22.2
AFA#103 (.13)42% (77)18.945% (60)3.03 (68)22531% (131)904.02 (56)#88 (.2)42% (68)23.341% (47)43% (89)3.97 (84)281.31
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SJSU#71 (.18)44% (56)41% (98)2.27 (133)8846% (28)3223.6 (96)#27 (.1)41% (57)42% (66)39% (47)3.58 (44)61.52.22.2
AFA#103 (.13)42% (77)45% (60)3.03 (68)22531% (131)904.02 (56)#88 (.2)42% (68)41% (47)43% (89)3.97 (84)281.31



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SJSU Offense1328.425.443.9%3.62.222410883223.637%63%41%46%18%.18
AFA Defense1223.317.741.7%3.971 - - - - - 56%44%41%43%15%.2
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SJSU Defense1327.527.640.8%3.582.2 - - - - - 53%47%42%39%17%.1
AFA Offense1218.918.742.1%4.021.31831422590482%18%45%31%12%.13

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
San José State1326:2321.740%53%761.52.22.27.21.9228.5
Air Force1233:5817.942%64%3281.314.31.5028.6
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SJSU Offense1337% (131)41% (98)24.687.93.613 (105)-.06 (131)2.27 (133)70% (91)9% (57)0.81 (127)
AFA Defense1256% (120)41% (47) - - - - .1 (56)3.02 (73)66% (28)10% (63)1.07 (101)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SJSU Defense1353% (94)42% (66) - - - - .03 (21)2.71 (23)77% (96)11% (41)0.86 (16)
AFA Offense1282% (2)45% (60)55.7224.7424 (45).15 (60)3.03 (68)83% (11)9% (55)0.88 (112)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SJSU Offense1363% (3)46% (28)24.342.3321.87.613.231 (6)16 (124).33 (39)1.6 (74)30% (53)34% (46).38 (49)9% (131)2.1 (65)
AFA Defense1244% (16)43% (89) - - - - - - 4 (125).33 (107)1.6 (63)31% (79)30% (54).3 (63)5% (120)2 (60)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SJSU Defense1347% (43)39% (47) - - - - - - 21 (1).19 (48)1.7 (105)34% (36)29% (45).24 (38)6% (56)2.1 (87)
AFA Offense1218% (133)31% (131)5.211.589.87.817.45 (134)10 (63).09 (124)2.1 (1)27% (14)25% (124).18 (111)3% (2)2.1 (66)

San José State's Power Ratings
San José State's Power Rating: -8.63  #94
San José State's Offense Rating: 16.16  #102
San José State's Defense Rating: 9.66  #71
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #102
San José State's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
San José State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.5  #92
San José State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.1  #73
San José State's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1  #90

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
San José State: -8.63   Air Force: -14.77

SP+ Ratings Matchup
San José State: -5.5   Air Force: -11.7




Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -14.77  #125
Air Force's Offense Rating: 14.34  #112
Air Force's Defense Rating: 16.43  #117
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #102
Air Force's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Air Force's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.7  #111
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.8  #120
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.5  #76

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


San José State Scoring
Offense: 28.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.4
Defense: 27.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.6

San José State's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
San José State 27
Air Force 20


Total Points: 47

Based on Last 4 Games
San José State 28
Air Force 26

Total Points: 54

Based on Entire Season
San José State 24
Air Force 23

Total Points: 47
Air Force Scoring
Offense: 18.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 18.7
Defense: 23.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.7

Air Force's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/08San José State16Air Force26San José State -6Air Force67.5Under
202409/07Air Force7San José State17Air Force -1.5San José State43.5Under
202309/22San José State20Air Force45Air Force -6Air Force45.5Over
202010/24San José State17Air Force6Air Force -7.5San José State63.5Under
201909/27Air Force41San José State24Air Force -19.5San José State58.5Over
201611/19San José State38Air Force41Air Force -11San José State54.5Over
201509/12Air Force37San José State16Air Force -7Air Force58.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Air Force533 Overs
San José State244 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 43 - 41 - 32 - 1
Road Teams4 - 34 - 31 - 23 - 1

(#94) SJSU at (#125) AFA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSJSUAFA
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #94 #125
SP+SP+ #92 #111
Perf GradeGrade #91 #97
OffenseOff #86 #72
DefenseDef #84 #113
Spec TeamsST #103 #129
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #102 #102
San José State Notes
(11/29) Eget torches Stanford, Def forced 3 TOs, big W
(11/25) Eget 4/22, Rgame 33 yds vs UNLV. R D mauled
(11/18) Sloppy, 4 TOs vs Boise. Eget fun, Rgame awful
(10/27) Sloppy, 4 TOs vs Fresno. Def awful on 3rd down
(10/20) Sloppy, 4 TOs vs Wy. Eget 318 yds, Rgame good
(10/17) Top 20 in tempo, Pass great. Run Off/Def awful
(10/17) QB Eget replaced Brown vs Col St. Played well
(10/16) Into wk 8, have 15 Def TO's, 3rd in CFB
(10/13) Penalties and Bad Def are a theme in L (Col St)
(9/20) QB Brown is v good. Leads MWC in YDS/TDS
(9/19) WR Nash leads CFB in yds through 1st 3 weeks
(9/17) 3 awful opps, zero run game. Pass game good #'s
San José State Injury Report
Air Force Notes
(11/18) Rgame mauled Oreg St. Hayes good, Def great
(11/14) Have found their QB in So. Quentin Hayes
(11/3) QBs Hayes/Johnson vs Army, both bad, Rgame bad
(10/20) QB Busha started, 10-25. Rgame 3.2 ypc in CSU L
(10/18) QBs now 3 co-starters, Busha (orig #1) out of mix
(10/12) Killed by N Mex, Rgame 325 yds but Def torched
(10/8) Market hasn't caught up to how awful AFA is TY
(9/14) 10 pts in 2 losses. 3.2 ypc avg. Bad AFA team TY
(8/11) AF fell apart late LY losing 4 straight
(8/1) Restock year TY, Def rebuild, 6-6 type
(7/30) Calhoun & staff win 9+ games every year since '19
(7/30) Last in CFB in return prod, but normal at AFA
Air Force Injury Report
San José State on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 63%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat
SJSU OffAFA Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #86 #113
SuccessSuc #56 #68
ExplosiveExp #54 #84
PPAPPA #71 #88
PowerPwr #102 #117
SP+SP+ #73 #76
Pts POPPO #96 #84
HavocHav #110 #86
San José State Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 63%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat
SJSU OffAFA Def
Run GameRun #90 #109
Run SuccessRSuc #98 #47
Run ExplRExp #127 #101
PPAExp #131 #56
Run BlockR Blk #131 -
OL YdsOLY #133 #73
Stuff RateStuff #134 #82
TackleTak -  #61
San José State Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 63%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat
SJSU OffAFA Def
Pass GamePass #27 #115
Pass SuccessPSuc #28 #89
Pass ExplPExl #74 #63
PPAExp #39 #107
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #130 #96
F7 HavocF7 #57 #63
DB HavocDB #131 #120
Air Force on Offense
Option Offense 82%, Pass: 18%
CategoryCatAFA OffSJSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #72 #84
SuccessSuc #77 #57
ExplosiveExp #134 #48
PPAPPA #103 #27
PowerPwr #112 #71
SP+SP+ #120 #90
Pts POPPO #56 #44
HavocHav #16 #47
Air Force Run Game
Option Offense 82%, Pass: 18%
CategoryCat
AFA OffSJSU Def
Run GameRun #109 #96
Run SuccessRSuc #60 #66
Run ExplRExp #112 #16
PPAExp #60 #21
Run BlockR Blk #17 -
OL YdsOLY #68 #23
Stuff RateStuff #21 #30
TackleTak -  #117
Air Force Pass Game
Option Offense 82%, Pass: 18%
CategoryCatAFA OffSJSU Def
Pass GamePass #122 #37
Pass SuccessPSuc #131 #47
Pass ExplPExl #1 #105
PPAExp #124 #48
Pass Block/RushP Blk #133 #121
F7 HavocF7 #55 #41
DB HavocDB #2 #56
Program Comparison
AFA 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'24 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

SJSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'24 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Falcon Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 76° - Wind: 11 mph
Rematch from Week 2
Air Force -1.5 (43.5)
San José State won at Air Force this year (17-7)

Previous Matchups
San José State beat Air Force last year (17-7)
Air Force beat San José State in 2023 (45-20)

  
SJSU's OC Craig Stutzmann (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Walker Eget18832857%250413107.6
Emmett Brown (Tr)12521758%16211657.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Floyd Chalk IV (Tr)154721104.766
Jabari Bates5925414.331
Lamar Radcliffe3314114.318
Walker Eget299903.432
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Nick Nash10413821613.345
Justin Lockhart53983518.557
Treyshun Hurry (Tr)28482217.231
Matthew Coleman34401211.833

View San José State's Full Roster

SJSU's DC Derrick Odum (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Pollard11514223
Robert Rahimi (Tr)826115
Isiah Revis716125
Taniela Latu717132
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Soane Toia5510540
John Ward467341
Jordan Cobbs698311
Jordan Pollard11514223
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Michael Dansby371006
D.J. Harvey587206
Isiah Revis716125

AFA's OC Mike Thiessen (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
John Busha297937%415155.3
Quentin Hayes254358%4553210.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dylan Carson13860054.350
Quentin Hayes12646673.730
Owen Allen7733524.414
Cade Harris4827945.830
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cade Harris23368216.076
Quin Smith10207120.739
Jared Roznos5109021.852
Bruin Fleischmann5104020.843

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC Brian Knorr (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Camby Goff673013
Jamari Bellamy643004
Osaro Aihie582201
Lincoln Tuioti-Mariner508212
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
David Santiago375423
Peyton Zdroik187330
Osaro Aihie582201
Lincoln Tuioti-Mariner508212
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamari Bellamy643004
Trey Williams311004
Camby Goff673013