Merrimack at Air Force - 2024 Matchup Preview
Merrimack logo Merrimack Warriors at Air Force FalconsAir Force logo
Saturday, August 31st 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
Air Force -30.5 (47.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Air Force 21 - Merrimack: 6

 
Warriors (0 - 2) (1 - 1 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 12 - 42 (12 - 42 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: -15  (SP+ AFA -12)
AFA Win prob: 96% | Cover: 54%
Falcons (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (130 - 82)
Avg Score : 19 - 23 (19 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Merrimack's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Merrimack at Air Force+30.547.5L 6 - 21UY
Sat 9/7 Merrimack at UConn+14.544.5L 17 - 63ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Merrimack's Schedule
Air Force's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Air Force vs Merrimack-30.547.5W 21 - 6UN
Sat 9/7 Air Force vs San José State-1.543.5L 7 - 17UN
Sat 9/14 Air Force at Baylor+17.540.5L 3 - 31UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28 Air Force at Wyoming-4.033.5L 19 - 31ON
Sat 10/5 Air Force vs Navy+10.037.0L 7 - 34ON
Sat 10/12 Air Force at New Mexico+7.056.0L 37 - 52ON
Sat 10/19 Air Force vs Colorado State+6.043.5L 13 - 21UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2 Air Force at Army+18.038.5L 3 - 20UY
Sat 11/9 Air Force vs Fresno State+9.540.5W 36 - 28OY
Sat 11/16 Air Force vs Oregon State+3.044.5W 28 - 0UY
Sat 11/23 Air Force at Nevada+3.044.5W 22 - 19UY
Sat 11/30 Air Force at San Diego State-6.543.5W 31 - 20OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MER0%11.50%000%000%420%0%0000
AFA#103 (.13)42% (77)18.945% (60)3.03 (68)22531% (131)904.02 (56)#88 (.2)42% (68)23.341% (47)43% (89)3.97 (84)281.31
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MER0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
AFA#103 (.13)42% (77)45% (60)3.03 (68)22531% (131)904.02 (56)#88 (.2)42% (68)41% (47)43% (89)3.97 (84)281.31



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MER Offense211.511.50%00000000%0%0%0%0%
AFA Defense1223.317.741.7%3.971 - - - - - 56%44%41%43%15%.2
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MER Defense242420%00 - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%
AFA Offense1218.918.742.1%4.021.31831422590482%18%45%31%12%.13

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Merrimack20:000NAN%0%0000000100
Air Force1233:5817.942%64%3281.314.31.5028.6
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MER Offense20%0%000000%0%0
AFA Defense1256% (120)41% (47) - - - - .1 (56)3.02 (73)66% (28)10% (63)1.07 (101)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MER Defense20%0% - - - - 00%0%0
AFA Offense1282% (2)45% (60)55.7224.7424 (45).15 (60)3.03 (68)83% (11)9% (55)0.88 (112)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MER Offense20%0%000000000%0%0%0
AFA Defense1244% (16)43% (89) - - - - - - 4 (125).33 (107)1.6 (63)31% (79)30% (54).3 (63)5% (120)2 (60)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MER Defense20%0% - - - - - - 000%0%0%0
AFA Offense1218% (133)31% (131)5.211.589.87.817.45 (134)10 (63).09 (124)2.1 (1)27% (14)25% (124).18 (111)3% (2)2.1 (66)

Merrimack's Power Ratings
Merrimack's Power Rating: NR
Merrimack's Offense Rating: NR
Merrimack's Defense Rating: NR
2024 Talent Rating: NR
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Merrimack's 2024 Expected Record: -
Merrimack's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
Merrimack's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
Merrimack's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average NEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Merrimack:    Air Force: -14.77

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Merrimack:    Air Force: -11.7




Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -14.77  #125
Air Force's Offense Rating: 14.34  #112
Air Force's Defense Rating: 16.43  #117
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #102
Air Force's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Air Force's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.7  #111
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.8  #120
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.5  #76

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


Merrimack Scoring
Offense: 11.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 11.5
Defense: 42 PPG
Defense on Road: 42

Merrimack's 2024 Record
Record: 0 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Over/Under Record: 1 - 1
Record on Road: 0 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Air Force 29
Merrimack 21

Total Points: 50

Based on Last 4 Games
Air Force 26
Merrimack 25

Total Points: 51

Based on Entire Season
Air Force 31
Merrimack 16

Total Points: 47
Air Force Scoring
Offense: 18.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 18.7
Defense: 23.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.7

Air Force's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202408/31Air Force21Merrimack6Air Force -30.5Merrimack47.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Air Force100 Overs
Merrimack011 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#NR) MER at (#125) AFA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMERAFA
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNR #125
SP+SP+NR #111
Perf GradeGradeNR #97
OffenseOffNR #72
DefenseDefNR #113
Spec TeamsSTNR #129
TalentTalNR #1
Blue ChipsBC%NR #102
Air Force Notes
(11/18) Rgame mauled Oreg St. Hayes good, Def great
(11/14) Have found their QB in So. Quentin Hayes
(11/3) QBs Hayes/Johnson vs Army, both bad, Rgame bad
(10/20) QB Busha started, 10-25. Rgame 3.2 ypc in CSU L
(10/18) QBs now 3 co-starters, Busha (orig #1) out of mix
(10/12) Killed by N Mex, Rgame 325 yds but Def torched
(10/8) Market hasn't caught up to how awful AFA is TY
(9/14) 10 pts in 2 losses. 3.2 ypc avg. Bad AFA team TY
(8/11) AF fell apart late LY losing 4 straight
(8/1) Restock year TY, Def rebuild, 6-6 type
(7/30) Calhoun & staff win 9+ games every year since '19
(7/30) Last in CFB in return prod, but normal at AFA
Air Force Injury Report
Merrimack on Offense
CategoryCat
MER OffAFA Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNR #113
SuccessSucNR #68
ExplosiveExpNR #84
PPAPPANR #88
PowerPwrNR #117
SP+SP+NR #76
Pts POPPONR #84
HavocHavNR #86
Merrimack Run Game
CategoryCat
MER OffAFA Def
Run GameRunNR #109
Run SuccessRSucNR #47
Run ExplRExpNR #101
PPAExpNR #56
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNR #73
Stuff RateStuffNR #82
TackleTak -  #61
Merrimack Pass Game
CategoryCat
MER OffAFA Def
Pass GamePassNR #115
Pass SuccessPSucNR #89
Pass ExplPExlNR #63
PPAExpNR #107
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNR #96
F7 HavocF7NR #63
DB HavocDBNR #120
Air Force on Offense
Option Offense 82%, Pass: 18%
CategoryCatAFA OffMER Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #72NR
SuccessSuc #77NR
ExplosiveExp #134NR
PPAPPA #103NR
PowerPwr #112NR
SP+SP+ #120NR
Pts POPPO #56NR
HavocHav #16NR
Air Force Run Game
Option Offense 82%, Pass: 18%
CategoryCat
AFA OffMER Def
Run GameRun #109NR
Run SuccessRSuc #60NR
Run ExplRExp #112NR
PPAExp #60NR
Run BlockR Blk #17 -
OL YdsOLY #68NR
Stuff RateStuff #21NR
TackleTak - NR
Air Force Pass Game
Option Offense 82%, Pass: 18%
CategoryCatAFA OffMER Def
Pass GamePass #122NR
Pass SuccessPSuc #131NR
Pass ExplPExl #1NR
PPAExp #124NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #133NR
F7 HavocF7 #55NR
DB HavocDB #2NR
Program Comparison
AFA 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'24 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

MER 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'24 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Falcon Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 79° - Wind: 8 mph
Rematch from Week 1
Air Force -30.5 (47.5)
Air Force won vs Merrimack this year (21-6)

Previous Matchups
Air Force beat Merrimack last year (21-6)

  
MER's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Merrimack's Full Roster

MER's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kendal Sims100000
DJ Frazier100010
Donte Williams90001
Jason Compoh70000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kendal Sims100000
Brandon Roberts30000
Justyce Hathaway10000
Jabari Nichols11000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Garry Rosemond Jr.50001
Donte Williams90001
Nicholas Lenon40011

AFA's OC Mike Thiessen (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
John Busha297937%415155.3
Quentin Hayes254358%4553210.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dylan Carson13860054.350
Quentin Hayes12646673.730
Owen Allen7733524.414
Cade Harris4827945.830
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cade Harris23368216.076
Quin Smith10207120.739
Jared Roznos5109021.852
Bruin Fleischmann5104020.843

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC Brian Knorr (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Camby Goff673013
Jamari Bellamy643004
Osaro Aihie582201
Lincoln Tuioti-Mariner508212
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
David Santiago375423
Peyton Zdroik187330
Osaro Aihie582201
Lincoln Tuioti-Mariner508212
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamari Bellamy643004
Trey Williams311004
Camby Goff673013