Merrimack at Air Force - 2024 Matchup Preview
Merrimack logo Merrimack Warriors at Air Force FalconsAir Force logo
Saturday, August 31st 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
Air Force -30.5 (47.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Air Force 21 - Merrimack: 6

 
Warriors (0 - 2) (1 - 1 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 12 - 42 (12 - 42 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: -15   (SP+ AFA -12)
AFA Win prob: 96% | Cover: 54%
Falcons (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (130 - 82)
Avg Score : 19 - 23 (19 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Merrimack's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Merrimack at Air Force+30.547.5L 6 - 21UY
Sat 9/7 Merrimack at UConn+14.544.5L 17 - 63ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Merrimack's Schedule
Air Force's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Air Force vs Merrimack-30.547.5W 21 - 6UN
Sat 9/7 Air Force vs San José State-1.543.5L 7 - 17UN
Sat 9/14 Air Force at Baylor+17.540.5L 3 - 31UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28 Air Force at Wyoming-4.033.5L 19 - 31ON
Sat 10/5 Air Force vs Navy+10.037.0L 7 - 34ON
Sat 10/12 Air Force at New Mexico+7.056.0L 37 - 52ON
Sat 10/19 Air Force vs Colorado State+6.043.5L 13 - 21UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2 Air Force at Army+18.038.5L 3 - 20UY
Sat 11/9 Air Force vs Fresno State+9.540.5W 36 - 28OY
Sat 11/16 Air Force vs Oregon State+3.044.5W 28 - 0UY
Sat 11/23 Air Force at Nevada+3.044.5W 22 - 19UY
Sat 11/30 Air Force at San Diego State-6.543.5W 31 - 20OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MER0%11.50%000%000%420%0%0000
AFA#103 (.13)42% (77)18.945% (60)3.03 (68)22531% (131)904.02 (56)#88 (.2)42% (68)23.341% (47)43% (89)3.97 (84)281.31
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MER0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
AFA#103 (.13)42% (77)45% (60)3.03 (68)22531% (131)904.02 (56)#88 (.2)42% (68)41% (47)43% (89)3.97 (84)281.31



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MER Offense211.511.50%00000000%0%0%0%0%
AFA Defense1223.317.741.7%3.971 - - - - - 56%44%41%43%15%.2
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MER Defense242420%00 - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%
AFA Offense1218.918.742.1%4.021.31831422590482%18%45%31%12%.13

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Merrimack20:000NAN%0%0000000100
Air Force1233:5817.942%64%3281.314.31.5028.6
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MER Offense20%0%000000%0%0
AFA Defense1256% (120)41% (47) - - - - .1 (56)3.02 (73)66% (28)10% (63)1.07 (101)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MER Defense20%0% - - - - 00%0%0
AFA Offense1282% (2)45% (60)55.7224.7424 (45).15 (60)3.03 (68)83% (11)9% (55)0.88 (112)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MER Offense20%0%000000000%0%0%0
AFA Defense1244% (16)43% (89) - - - - - - 4 (125).33 (107)1.6 (63)31% (79)30% (54).3 (63)5% (120)2 (60)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MER Defense20%0% - - - - - - 000%0%0%0
AFA Offense1218% (133)31% (131)5.211.589.87.817.45 (134)10 (63).09 (124)2.1 (1)27% (14)25% (124).18 (111)3% (2)2.1 (66)

Merrimack's Power Ratings
Merrimack's Power Rating: #NR
Merrimack's Offense Rating: #NR
Merrimack's Defense Rating: #NR
2024 Talent Rating: #
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #NR
Merrimack's 2024 Expected Record: -
Merrimack's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: #N/A
Merrimack's Offense SP+ Rating: #N/A
Merrimack's Defense SP+ Rating: #N/A

Average Talent
Average NEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Merrimack:    Air Force: -14.77

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Merrimack:    Air Force: -11.7




Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -14.77 #125
Air Force's Offense Rating: 14.34 #112
Air Force's Defense Rating: 16.43 #117
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Air Force's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Air Force's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.7 #111
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.8 #120
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.5 #76

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Merrimack Scoring
Offense: 11.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 11.5
Defense: 42 PPG
Defense on Road: 42

Merrimack's 2024 Record
Record: 0 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Air Force 31
Merrimack 16


Total Points: 47

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 18.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 18.7
Defense: 23.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.7

Air Force's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202408/31Air Force21Merrimack6Air ForceAir Force -30.5Merrimack47.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Air Force100 Overs
Merrimack011 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#NR) Merrimack Info
Power Rating: #NR
Offense Rating: #NR
Defense Rating: #NR
Overall SP+ Rating: #N/A
Offense SP+ Rating: #N/A
Defense SP+ Rating: #N/A
Talent Rating: #
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #NR
Expected Record: -


Record on Road: 0 - 2 (1 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Merrimack Highlights

Merrimack Deficiencies
Merrimack has a really bad Offense
Merrimack Defense Gives up a Lot of Points

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatAFAMER
OverallOver#69
OffenseOff#59
DefenseDef#93
Special TeamsST#106
PassingPass#99
RushingRush#78
Run BlockRBLK#15
Pass BlockPBLK#116
Route RunningWR Rt#93
TacklingTkl#54
Run DefenseR Def#86
Pass Rush DefPRush#82
Coverage DefCov#93

Rematch from Week 1
Air Force -30.5 (47.5)
Air Force won vs Merrimack this year (21-6)

Previous Matchups
Air Force beat Merrimack last year (21-6)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Falcon Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: MER | AFA
Depth Chart: MER | AFA
Rosters: MER | AFA
(#125) Air Force Info
Power Rating: -14.77 #125
Offense Rating: 14.34 #112
Defense Rating: 16.43 #117
Overall SP+ Rating: -11.7 #111
Offense SP+ Rating: 17.8 #120
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.5 #76
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Option Offense 82%, Pass: 18%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.02 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Awful Pass Success 31%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.97 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 41%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Record at home: 3 - 3 (2 - 4 - 0 vs Spread)

Air Force Notes
(11/14) Have found their QB in So. Quentin Hayes
(11/3) QBs Hayes/Johnson vs Army, both bad, Rgame bad
(10/20) QB Busha started, 10-25. Rgame 3.2 ypc in CSU L
(10/18) QBs now 3 co-starters, Busha (orig #1) out of mix
(10/12) Killed by N Mex, Rgame 325 yds but Def torched
(10/8) Market hasn't caught up to how awful AFA is TY
(9/14) 10 pts in 2 losses. 3.2 ypc avg. Bad AFA team TY
(8/11) AF fell apart late LY losing 4 straight
(8/1) Restock year TY, Def rebuild, 6-6 type
(7/30) Calhoun & staff win 9+ games every year since '19

Air Force Highlights
Air Force has Really Good Running Game (#52)
Air Force does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#9)

Air Force commits very few Penalties (#6)

Air Force Deficiencies
Air Force has a really bad Offense
Air Force has a really bad Offense at Home
Air Force offense is not Explosive (#117)
Air Force pass game is really bad (#83)
Air Force does not Sack the QB (#13)


  
Merrimack's OC
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Merrimack's Full Roster
Merrimack's DC
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kendal Sims100000
DJ Frazier100010
Donte Williams90001
Jason Compoh70000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kendal Sims100000
Brandon Roberts30000
Justyce Hathaway10000
Jabari Nichols11000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Garry Rosemond Jr.50001
Donte Williams90001
Nicholas Lenon40011

Air Force's OC Mike Thiessen
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
John Busha297937%415155.3
Quentin Hayes254358%4553210.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dylan Carson13860054.350
Quentin Hayes12646673.730
Owen Allen7733524.414
Cade Harris4827945.830
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cade Harris23368216.076
Quin Smith10207120.739
Jared Roznos5109021.852
Bruin Fleischmann5104020.843

View Air Force's Full Roster
Air Force's DC Brian Knorr
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Camby Goff673013
Jamari Bellamy643004
Osaro Aihie582201
Lincoln Tuioti-Mariner508212
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
David Santiago375423
Peyton Zdroik187330
Osaro Aihie582201
Lincoln Tuioti-Mariner508212
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamari Bellamy643004
Trey Williams311004
Camby Goff673013