Air Force at Wyoming Game Matchup

Saturday, September 28th 2024 (8:00 PM EDT)
Air Force -4 (33.5) (-175) Open: -1.5
Wyoming 31 - Air Force: 19 (Mountain West)

Falcons (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (130 - 82)
Avg Score : 19 - 23 (19 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 15 MPH
AFA coming off BYE
WYO is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Wyoming -4 (SP+ AFA -2)
Projected Score: AFA: 18 - WYO: 22 (45)
AFA Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
AFA Travel: 164 miles

Cowboys (3 - 9) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jay Sawvel (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 28 (20 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
AFA Players
WYO Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Air Force's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Air Force vs Merrimack	-30.5	47.5	W 21 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/7	Air Force vs San José State	-1.5	43.5	L 7 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/14	Air Force at Baylor	+17.5	40.5	L 3 - 31	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Air Force at Wyoming	-4.0	33.5	L 19 - 31	O	N
Sat 10/5	Air Force vs Navy	+10.0	37.0	L 7 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/12	Air Force at New Mexico	+7.0	56.0	L 37 - 52	O	N
Sat 10/19	Air Force vs Colorado State	+6.0	43.5	L 13 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	Air Force at Army	+18.0	38.5	L 3 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/9	Air Force vs Fresno State	+9.5	40.5	W 36 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Air Force vs Oregon State	+3.0	44.5	W 28 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Air Force at Nevada	+3.0	44.5	W 22 - 19	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Air Force at San Diego State	-6.5	43.5	W 31 - 20	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule

Wyoming's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Wyoming at Arizona State	+6.5	47.0	L 7 - 48	O	N
Sat 9/7	Wyoming vs Idaho	-6.5	39.5	L 13 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/14	Wyoming vs BYU	+9.5	40.5	L 14 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/21	Wyoming at North Texas	+7.0	55.0	L 17 - 44	O	N
Sat 9/28	Wyoming vs Air Force	+4.0	33.5	W 31 - 19	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Wyoming vs San Diego State	-1.5	43.0	L 24 - 27	O	N
Sat 10/19	Wyoming at San José State	+13.0	53.0	L 14 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Wyoming vs Utah State	+2.5	57.0	L 25 - 27	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Wyoming at New Mexico	+7.5	60.5	W 49 - 45	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/15	Wyoming at Colorado State	+8.5	47.5	L 10 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/23	Wyoming vs Boise State	+22.0	54.0	L 13 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Wyoming at Washington State	+18.5	55.5	W 15 - 14	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA	#26 (.28)	45% (31)	18.9	46% (34)	3.48 (8)	281	41% (74)	85	4.05 (52)	#28 (.12)	39% (38)	23.3	37% (16)	42% (79)	3.96 (85)	24.8	1.3	1.1
WYO	#71 (.19)	43% (56)	19.3	44% (60)	3.25 (41)	158	43% (59)	169	3.97 (60)	#76 (.19)	43% (77)	28.3	42% (58)	44% (104)	3.44 (40)	33.4	0.8	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
WYO		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Offense	13	18.9	19.2	45.5%	4.05	1.3	20	366	281	85	5.1	85%	14%	46%	41%	9%	.28
WYO Defense	13	28.3	23.5	42.6%	3.44	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	48%	51%	42%	44%	14%	.19

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Defense	13	23.3	28.8	39.3%	3.96	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	37%	42%	14%	.12
WYO Offense	13	19.3	20	43.1%	3.97	0.8	19	327	158	169	4.4	56%	44%	44%	43%	14%	.19

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Air Force	13	33:26	19.6	46%	68%	3	24.8	1.3	1.1	4.5	2	2	30.6
Wyoming	13	30:15	18.6	37%	67%	3.9	33.4	0.8	1.7	3.8	1.5	1	28.9

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Offense	13	85% (1)	46% (34)	54.7	280.6	5.1	36 (4)	.27 (14)	3.48 (8)	80% (19)	8% (22)	1.02 (56)
WYO Defense	13	48% (47)	42% (58)	-	-	-	-	.13 (64)	3.17 (86)	71% (55)	7% (130)	0.94 (38)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Defense	13	49% (58)	37% (16)	-	-	-	-	.06 (26)	2.67 (13)	79% (106)	9% (93)	0.99 (61)
WYO Offense	13	56% (28)	44% (60)	36	158.5	4.4	19 (69)	.17 (53)	3.25 (41)	82% (11)	9% (53)	1 (66)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Offense	13	14% (133)	41% (74)	4.2	8.1	85	10.5	20.1	7 (129)	6 (14)	.51 (9)	2.3 (1)	23% (1)	27% (93)	.39 (48)	2% (1)	2.3 (7)
WYO Defense	13	51% (87)	44% (104)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.28 (79)	1.5 (25)	32% (74)	31% (81)	.33 (77)	6% (59)	2 (64)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Defense	13	50% (80)	42% (79)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.21 (36)	1.5 (19)	34% (44)	29% (45)	.34 (85)	5% (103)	2 (59)
WYO Offense	13	44% (106)	43% (59)	14.5	23.4	168.5	7.2	11.6	20 (70)	6 (14)	.23 (86)	1.5 (101)	29% (23)	32% (61)	.3 (80)	5% (20)	2 (85)

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -22.84 #125
Air Force's Offense Rating: 14.34 #112
Air Force's Defense Rating: 16.43 #117
2024 Talent Rating: 198.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Air Force's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Air Force's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.7 #111
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.8 #120
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.5 #76

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 443.33
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -22.84 Wyoming: -13.155

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -11.7 Wyoming: -13.6

Wyoming's Power Ratings
Wyoming's Power Rating: -13.155 #117
Wyoming's Offense Rating: 11.64 #122
Wyoming's Defense Rating: 11.59 #84
2024 Talent Rating: 462.00 #108
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Wyoming's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Wyoming's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.6 #115
Wyoming's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.3 #127
Wyoming's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.8 #95

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 443.33
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 18.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.2
Defense: 23.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.8

Air Force's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Wyoming 22
Air Force 18

Projected Total Points: 45

Wyoming Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 20
Defense: 28.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 23.5

Wyoming's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/28	Wyoming	31	Air Force	19	Wyoming	Air Force -4	Wyoming	33.5	Over
2023	10/14	Air Force	34	Wyoming	27	Air Force	Air Force -12.5	Wyoming	42.0	Over
2022	09/16	Wyoming	17	Air Force	14	Wyoming	Air Force -16.5	Wyoming	47.0	Under
2021	10/09	Air Force	24	Wyoming	14	Air Force	Air Force -5.5	Air Force	46.5	Under
2019	11/30	Air Force	20	Wyoming	6	Air Force	Air Force -13.5	Air Force	41.5	Under
2018	11/17	Wyoming	35	Air Force	27	Wyoming	Wyoming -3	Wyoming	42.5	Over
2017	11/11	Air Force	14	Wyoming	28	Wyoming	Air Force -2.5	Wyoming	51.0	Under
2016	10/08	Wyoming	35	Air Force	26	Wyoming	Air Force -13.5	Wyoming	50.0	Over
2015	10/10	Air Force	31	Wyoming	17	Air Force	Air Force -21.5	Wyoming	57.0	Under
2014	09/06	Wyoming	17	Air Force	13	Wyoming	Wyoming -1	Wyoming	0
2013	09/21	Air Force	23	Wyoming	56	Wyoming	Wyoming -2.5	Wyoming	0
2012	10/13	Wyoming	27	Air Force	28	Air Force
2011	11/12	Air Force	17	Wyoming	25	Wyoming
2010	09/25	Wyoming	14	Air Force	20	Air Force
2009	10/17	Air Force	10	Wyoming	0	Air Force
2008	09/06	Wyoming	3	Air Force	23	Air Force
2007	10/20	Air Force	20	Wyoming	12	Air Force
2006	09/23	Wyoming	24	Air Force	31	Air Force
2005	09/17	Air Force	28	Wyoming	29	Wyoming
2004	10/30	Wyoming	43	Air Force	26	Wyoming
2003	09/20	Air Force	35	Wyoming	29	Air Force
2002	10/26	Wyoming	34	Air Force	26	Wyoming
2001	10/13	Air Force	24	Wyoming	13	Air Force
2000	10/13	Wyoming	34	Air Force	51	Air Force

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Wyoming	11	9	4 Overs
Air Force	13	2	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	15 - 9	7 - 4	4 - 3	3 - 1
Road Teams	9 - 15	4 - 7	1 - 3	3 - 4

(#125) Air Force Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -22.84 #125
Offense Rating: 14.34 #112
Defense Rating: 16.43 #117
Overall SP+ Rating: -11.7 #111
Offense SP+ Rating: 17.8 #120
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.5 #76
Talent Rating: 198.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Option Offense 82%, Pass: 18%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.02 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Awful Pass Success 31%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.97 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 41%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Air Force Notes
(11/14) Have found their QB in So. Quentin Hayes
(11/3) QBs Hayes/Johnson vs Army, both bad, Rgame bad
(10/20) QB Busha started, 10-25. Rgame 3.2 ypc in CSU L
(10/18) QBs now 3 co-starters, Busha (orig #1) out of mix
(10/12) Killed by N Mex, Rgame 325 yds but Def torched
(10/8) Market hasn't caught up to how awful AFA is TY
(9/14) 10 pts in 2 losses. 3.2 ypc avg. Bad AFA team TY
(8/11) AF fell apart late LY losing 4 straight
(8/1) Restock year TY, Def rebuild, 6-6 type
(7/30) Calhoun & staff win 9+ games every year since '19

Air Force Ratings Matchup Wyoming

Power #125

#117

Off #112

#122

Def #117

#84

Talent #131

#108

SP+ #111

#115

SP+ Off #120

#127

SP+ Def #76

#95

Rematch from Week 5
Air Force 4.0 (33.5)
Wyoming won vs Air Force this year (31-19)

Previous Matchups
Wyoming beat Air Force last year (31-19)
Air Force beat Wyoming in 2023 (34-27)
Wyoming beat Air Force in 2022 (17-14)

Weather Forecast
Playing in War Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 71° - Wind: 15 mph

Team Information
Injuries: AFA | WYO
Depth Chart: AFA | WYO
Rosters: AFA | WYO

(#117) Wyoming Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -13.155 #117
Offense Rating: 11.64 #122
Defense Rating: 11.59 #84
Overall SP+ Rating: -13.6 #115
Offense SP+ Rating: 16.3 #127
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.8 #95
Talent Rating: 462.00 #108
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 36%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3.07 PPO
Awful Run Success 39%
Awful Pass Success 34%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 44%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.97 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Awful Pass Def Success 45%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Wyoming Notes
(11/18) Off abysmal vs CSU, WR drops all over. Awful TY
(11/15) HC Sawvel is a f'ing idiot, punts down 14 late
(11/3) Off much better, QB Anderson lit up N. Mex in W
(10/20) 310 yds & 3 TOs vs SJSU. Forced 4 TOs in L
(10/17) Running more tempo in '24, Overs are 5-1
(10/13) QB Svoboda awful, Rgame better in L SDSU
(9/20) Off is near worst in CFB. WR awful, QB bad
(9/8) Lost @ home to Idaho? QB awful, penalties
(9/1) Mauled @ ASU, DL 241 yds rushing, run game awful
(8/11) DL may be best in MWC, OL exp'd and rising

Air Force's OC Mike Thiessen

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Quentin Hayes	25	43	58%	455	3	2	10.6
Josh Johnson	6	14	43%	126	1	3	9.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dylan Carson	138	600	5	4.3	50
Quentin Hayes	126	466	7	3.7	30
Owen Allen	77	335	2	4.4	14
Cade Harris	48	279	4	5.8	30

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cade Harris	23	368	2	16.0	76
Quin Smith	10	207	1	20.7	39
Bruin Fleischmann	5	104	0	20.8	43
James Roberson	5	96	1	19.2	45

View Air Force's Full Roster

Air Force's DC Brian Knorr

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Lincoln Tuioti-Mariner	50	8	2	1	2
David Santiago	37	5	4	2	3
Blake Fletcher	37	5	2	2	1
Trey Williams	31	1	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
David Santiago	37	5	4	2	3
Peyton Zdroik	18	7	3	3	0
Lincoln Tuioti-Mariner	50	8	2	1	2
Blake Fletcher	37	5	2	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trey Williams	31	1	0	0	4
Daniel Grobe	30	5	1	1	3
David Santiago	37	5	4	2	3

Wyoming's OC Jay Johnson

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Evan Svoboda	111	226	49%	1308	5	8	5.8
Kaden Anderson	70	120	58%	955	6	3	8.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Sam Scott	92	435	3	4.7	43
Harrison Waylee	63	323	1	5.1	36
Jamari Ferrell	80	318	1	4.0	62
Evan Svoboda	109	237	5	2.2	51

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaylen Sargent	23	480	2	20.9	70
Johnmichael Gyllenborg	30	425	3	14.2	63
Chris Durr Jr.	31	348	1	11.2	40
Tyler King (Tr)	17	236	0	13.9	36

View Wyoming's Full Roster

Wyoming's DC Aaron Bohl

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Wrook Brown	48	1	0	6
Tyrecus Davis	42	1	0	8
Tyce Westland	41	6	3	0
Keany Parks	41	1	0	7

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tyce Westland	41	6	3	0	0
Sabastian Harsh	41	9	3	1	0
Braden Siders	20	4	2	0	0
Ben Florentine	26	4	1	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Tyrecus Davis	42	1	8
Keany Parks	41	1	7
Wrook Brown	48	1	6