Air Force at Wyoming - 2024 Matchup Preview
Air Force logo Air Force Falcons at Wyoming CowboysWyoming logo
Saturday, September 28th 2024 (8:00 PM EDT)
Air Force -4 (33.5) (-175)  Open: -1.5
Wyoming 31 - Air Force: 19  (Mountain West)

 
Falcons (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (130 - 82)
Avg Score : 19 - 23 (19 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
AFA coming off BYE
WYO is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Wyoming -4   (SP+ AFA -2)

Projected Score: AFA: 18 - WYO: 22 (40)
AFA Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
AFA Travel: 164 miles
Cowboys (3 - 9) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jay Sawvel (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 28 (20 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Air Force's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Air Force vs Merrimack-30.547.5W 21 - 6UN
Sat 9/7 Air Force vs San José State-1.543.5L 7 - 17UN
Sat 9/14 Air Force at Baylor+17.540.5L 3 - 31UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28 Air Force at Wyoming-4.033.5L 19 - 31ON
Sat 10/5 Air Force vs Navy+10.037.0L 7 - 34ON
Sat 10/12 Air Force at New Mexico+7.056.0L 37 - 52ON
Sat 10/19 Air Force vs Colorado State+6.043.5L 13 - 21UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2 Air Force at Army+18.038.5L 3 - 20UY
Sat 11/9 Air Force vs Fresno State+9.540.5W 36 - 28OY
Sat 11/16 Air Force vs Oregon State+3.044.5W 28 - 0UY
Sat 11/23 Air Force at Nevada+3.044.5W 22 - 19UY
Sat 11/30 Air Force at San Diego State-6.543.5W 31 - 20OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule
Wyoming's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Wyoming at Arizona State+6.547.0L 7 - 48ON
Sat 9/7 Wyoming vs Idaho-6.539.5L 13 - 17UN
Sat 9/14 Wyoming vs BYU+9.540.5L 14 - 34ON
Sat 9/21 Wyoming at North Texas+7.055.0L 17 - 44ON
Sat 9/28 Wyoming vs Air Force+4.033.5W 31 - 19OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Wyoming vs San Diego State-1.543.0L 24 - 27ON
Sat 10/19 Wyoming at San José State+13.053.0L 14 - 24UY
Sat 10/26 Wyoming vs Utah State+2.557.0L 25 - 27UY
Sat 11/2 Wyoming at New Mexico+7.560.5W 49 - 45OY
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/15 Wyoming at Colorado State+8.547.5L 10 - 24UN
Sat 11/23 Wyoming vs Boise State+22.054.0L 13 - 17UY
Sat 11/30 Wyoming at Washington State+18.555.5W 15 - 14UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Wyoming's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
AFA#103 (.13)42% (77)18.945% (60)3.03 (68)22531% (131)904.02 (56)#88 (.2)42% (68)23.341% (47)43% (89)3.97 (84)281.31
WYO#127 (.05)36% (126)19.339% (111)2.64 (122)13834% (125)1893.07 (126)#102 (.23)44% (96)28.343% (70)45% (113)3.97 (86)49.61.30.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
AFA#103 (.13)42% (77)45% (60)3.03 (68)22531% (131)904.02 (56)#88 (.2)42% (68)41% (47)43% (89)3.97 (84)281.31
WYO#127 (.05)36% (126)39% (111)2.64 (122)13834% (125)1893.07 (126)#102 (.23)44% (96)43% (70)45% (113)3.97 (86)49.61.30.9



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
AFA Offense1218.919.242.1%4.021.31831422590482%18%45%31%12%.13
WYO Defense1228.323.544%3.970.9 - - - - - 52%48%43%45%15%.23
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
AFA Defense1223.328.841.7%3.971 - - - - - 56%44%41%43%15%.2
WYO Offense1219.32036.4%3.071.3173271381893.654%46%39%34%17%.05

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Air Force1233:5817.942%64%3281.314.31.5028.6
Wyoming1230:5217.336%60%5.549.61.30.951.3228
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
AFA Offense1282% (2)45% (60)55.7224.7424 (45).15 (60)3.03 (68)83% (11)9% (55)0.88 (112)
WYO Defense1252% (82)43% (70) - - - - .21 (112)3.09 (85)62% (12)9% (87)1.19 (128)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
AFA Defense1256% (120)41% (47) - - - - .1 (56)3.02 (73)66% (28)10% (63)1.07 (101)
WYO Offense1254% (40)39% (111)38.2138.13.614 (98).02 (117)2.64 (122)62% (121)11% (92)0.94 (83)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
AFA Offense1218% (133)31% (131)5.211.589.87.817.45 (134)10 (63).09 (124)2.1 (1)27% (14)25% (124).18 (111)3% (2)2.1 (66)
WYO Defense1248% (55)45% (113) - - - - - - 6 (109).25 (78)1.4 (10)31% (81)32% (85).32 (73)5% (102)1.8 (16)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
AFA Defense1244% (16)43% (89) - - - - - - 4 (125).33 (107)1.6 (63)31% (79)30% (54).3 (63)5% (120)2 (60)
WYO Offense1246% (93)34% (125)15.128.9188.66.512.511 (122)11 (72).08 (126)1.8 (19)34% (110)25% (118).15 (126)6% (72)2.1 (62)

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -22.84 #125
Air Force's Offense Rating: 14.34 #112
Air Force's Defense Rating: 16.43 #117
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Air Force's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Air Force's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.7 #111
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.8 #120
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.5 #76

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -22.84   Wyoming: -13.155

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -11.7   Wyoming: -13.6




Wyoming's Power Ratings
Wyoming's Power Rating: -13.155 #117
Wyoming's Offense Rating: 11.64 #122
Wyoming's Defense Rating: 11.59 #84
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Wyoming's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Wyoming's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.6 #115
Wyoming's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.3 #127
Wyoming's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.8 #95

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Air Force Scoring
Offense: 18.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.2
Defense: 23.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.8

Air Force's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Wyoming 22
Air Force 18


Total Points: 40

Wyoming Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 20
Defense: 28.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 23.5

Wyoming's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/28Wyoming31Air Force19WyomingAir Force -4Wyoming33.5Over
202310/14Air Force34Wyoming27Air ForceAir Force -12.5Wyoming42.0Over
202209/16Wyoming17Air Force14WyomingAir Force -16.5Wyoming47.0Under
202110/09Air Force24Wyoming14Air ForceAir Force -5.5Air Force46.5Under
201911/30Air Force20Wyoming6Air ForceAir Force -13.5Air Force41.5Under
201811/17Wyoming35Air Force27WyomingWyoming -3Wyoming42.5Over
201711/11Air Force14Wyoming28WyomingAir Force -2.5Wyoming51.0Under
201610/08Wyoming35Air Force26WyomingAir Force -13.5Wyoming50.0Over
201510/10Air Force31Wyoming17Air ForceAir Force -21.5Wyoming57.0Under
201409/06Wyoming17Air Force13WyomingWyoming -1Wyoming0
201309/21Air Force23Wyoming56WyomingWyoming -2.5Wyoming0
201210/13Wyoming27Air Force28Air Force
201111/12Air Force17Wyoming25Wyoming
201009/25Wyoming14Air Force20Air Force
200910/17Air Force10Wyoming0Air Force
200809/06Wyoming3Air Force23Air Force
200710/20Air Force20Wyoming12Air Force
200609/23Wyoming24Air Force31Air Force
200509/17Air Force28Wyoming29Wyoming
200410/30Wyoming43Air Force26Wyoming
200309/20Air Force35Wyoming29Air Force
200210/26Wyoming34Air Force26Wyoming
200110/13Air Force24Wyoming13Air Force
200010/13Wyoming34Air Force51Air Force
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Wyoming1194 Overs
Air Force1325 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams15 - 97 - 44 - 33 - 1
Road Teams9 - 154 - 71 - 33 - 4

(#125) Air Force Info
Power Rating: -22.84 #125
Offense Rating: 14.34 #112
Defense Rating: 16.43 #117
Overall SP+ Rating: -11.7 #111
Offense SP+ Rating: 17.8 #120
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.5 #76
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Option Offense 82%, Pass: 18%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.02 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Awful Pass Success 31%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.97 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 41%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Air Force has lost 2 straight
Air Force has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 2 - 4 (3 - 3 - 0 vs Spread )

Air Force Notes
(11/14) Have found their QB in So. Quentin Hayes
(11/3) QBs Hayes/Johnson vs Army, both bad, Rgame bad
(10/20) QB Busha started, 10-25. Rgame 3.2 ypc in CSU L
(10/18) QBs now 3 co-starters, Busha (orig #1) out of mix
(10/12) Killed by N Mex, Rgame 325 yds but Def torched
(10/8) Market hasn't caught up to how awful AFA is TY
(9/14) 10 pts in 2 losses. 3.2 ypc avg. Bad AFA team TY
(8/11) AF fell apart late LY losing 4 straight
(8/1) Restock year TY, Def rebuild, 6-6 type
(7/30) Calhoun & staff win 9+ games every year since '19

Air Force Highlights
Air Force has Really Good Running Game (#52)
Air Force does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#9)

Air Force commits very few Penalties (#6)

Air Force Deficiencies
Air Force has a really bad Offense
Air Force offense is not Explosive (#117)
Air Force pass game is really bad (#83)
Air Force does not Sack the QB (#13)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatWYOAFA
OverallOver#75#69
OffenseOff#95#59
DefenseDef#52#93
Special TeamsST#79#106
PassingPass#99#99
RushingRush#93#78
Run BlockRBLK#48#15
Pass BlockPBLK#96#116
Route RunningWR Rt#90#93
TacklingTkl#83#54
Run DefenseR Def#37#86
Pass Rush DefPRush#66#82
Coverage DefCov#69#93

Rematch from Week 5
Air Force 4.0 (33.5)
Wyoming won vs Air Force this year (31-19)

Previous Matchups
Wyoming beat Air Force last year (31-19)
Air Force beat Wyoming in 2023 (34-27)
Wyoming beat Air Force in 2022 (17-14)

Weather Forecast
Playing in War Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: AFA | WYO
Depth Chart: AFA | WYO
Rosters: AFA | WYO
(#117) Wyoming Info
Power Rating: -13.155 #117
Offense Rating: 11.64 #122
Defense Rating: 11.59 #84
Overall SP+ Rating: -13.6 #115
Offense SP+ Rating: 16.3 #127
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.8 #95
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 36%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3.07 PPO
Awful Run Success 39%
Awful Pass Success 34%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 44%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.97 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Awful Pass Def Success 45%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Wyoming has lost 4 straight
Wyoming has lost 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 5 (3 - 3 - 0 vs Spread)

Wyoming Notes
(11/18) Off abysmal vs CSU, WR drops all over. Awful TY
(11/15) HC Sawvel is a f'ing idiot, punts down 14 late
(11/3) Off much better, QB Anderson lit up N. Mex in W
(10/20) 310 yds & 3 TOs vs SJSU. Forced 4 TOs in L
(10/17) Running more tempo in '24, Overs are 5-1
(10/13) QB Svoboda awful, Rgame better in L SDSU
(9/20) Off is near worst in CFB. WR awful, QB bad
(9/8) Lost @ home to Idaho? QB awful, penalties
(9/1) Mauled @ ASU, DL 241 yds rushing, run game awful
(8/11) DL may be best in MWC, OL exp'd and rising

Wyoming Highlights

Wyoming Deficiencies
Wyoming has a really bad Offense
Wyoming has a really bad Offense at Home
Wyoming offense is really bad (#60)
Wyoming Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#104)
Wyoming offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#119)
Wyoming run game is really bad (#49)
Wyoming pass game is really bad (#82)
Wyoming does not Sack the QB (#64)


  
Air Force's OC Mike Thiessen
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
John Busha297937%415155.3
Quentin Hayes254358%4553210.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dylan Carson13860054.350
Quentin Hayes12646673.730
Owen Allen7733524.414
Cade Harris4827945.830
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cade Harris23368216.076
Quin Smith10207120.739
Jared Roznos5109021.852
Bruin Fleischmann5104020.843

View Air Force's Full Roster
Air Force's DC Brian Knorr
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Camby Goff673013
Jamari Bellamy643004
Osaro Aihie582201
Lincoln Tuioti-Mariner508212
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
David Santiago375423
Peyton Zdroik187330
Osaro Aihie582201
Lincoln Tuioti-Mariner508212
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamari Bellamy643004
Trey Williams311004
Camby Goff673013

Wyoming's OC Jay Johnson
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Evan Svoboda11122649%1308585.8
Kaden Anderson7012058%955638.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Sam Scott9243534.743
Harrison Waylee6332315.136
Jamari Ferrell8031814.062
Evan Svoboda10923752.251
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaylen Sargent23480220.970
Johnmichael Gyllenborg30425314.263
Chris Durr Jr.31348111.240
Tyler King (Tr)17236013.936

View Wyoming's Full Roster
Wyoming's DC Aaron Bohl
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Shae Suiaunoa8710132
Connor Shay768223
Isaac White572002
Wrook Brown481006
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyce Westland416300
Sabastian Harsh419310
Braden Siders204200
DeVonne Harris215200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyrecus Davis421008
Keany Parks411007
Wrook Brown481006