Air Force at Wyoming - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 28th 2024 (8:00 PM EDT)
Air Force -4 (33.5) (-175) Open: -1.5
Wyoming 31 - Air Force: 19 (Mountain West)

Falcons (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (130 - 82)
Avg Score : 19 - 23 (19 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 15 MPH
AFA coming off BYE
WYO is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Wyoming -4 (SP+ AFA -2)
Projected Score: AFA: 17 - WYO: 21 (38)
AFA Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
AFA Travel: 164 miles

Cowboys (3 - 9) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jay Sawvel (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 28 (20 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
AFA Players
WYO Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Air Force's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Air Force vs Merrimack	-30.5	47.5	W 21 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/7	Air Force vs San José State	-1.5	43.5	L 7 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/14	Air Force at Baylor	+17.5	40.5	L 3 - 31	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Air Force at Wyoming	-4.0	33.5	L 19 - 31	O	N
Sat 10/5	Air Force vs Navy	+10.0	37.0	L 7 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/12	Air Force at New Mexico	+7.0	56.0	L 37 - 52	O	N
Sat 10/19	Air Force vs Colorado State	+6.0	43.5	L 13 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	Air Force at Army	+18.0	38.5	L 3 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/9	Air Force vs Fresno State	+9.5	40.5	W 36 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Air Force vs Oregon State	+3.0	44.5	W 28 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Air Force at Nevada	+3.0	44.5	W 22 - 19	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Air Force at San Diego State	-6.5	43.5	W 31 - 20	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule

Wyoming's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Wyoming at Arizona State	+6.5	47.0	L 7 - 48	O	N
Sat 9/7	Wyoming vs Idaho	-6.5	39.5	L 13 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/14	Wyoming vs BYU	+9.5	40.5	L 14 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/21	Wyoming at North Texas	+7.0	55.0	L 17 - 44	O	N
Sat 9/28	Wyoming vs Air Force	+4.0	33.5	W 31 - 19	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Wyoming vs San Diego State	-1.5	43.0	L 24 - 27	O	N
Sat 10/19	Wyoming at San José State	+13.0	53.0	L 14 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Wyoming vs Utah State	+2.5	57.0	L 25 - 27	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Wyoming at New Mexico	+7.5	60.5	W 49 - 45	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/15	Wyoming at Colorado State	+8.5	47.5	L 10 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/23	Wyoming vs Boise State	+22.0	54.0	L 13 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Wyoming at Washington State	+18.5	55.5	W 15 - 14	U	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA	#103 (.13)	42% (77)	18.9	45% (60)	3.03 (68)	225	31% (131)	90	4.02 (56)	#88 (.2)	42% (68)	23.3	41% (47)	43% (89)	3.97 (84)	28	1.3	1
WYO	#127 (.05)	36% (126)	19.3	39% (111)	2.64 (122)	138	34% (125)	189	3.07 (126)	#102 (.23)	44% (96)	28.3	43% (70)	45% (113)	3.97 (86)	49.6	1.3	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA	#103 (.13)	42% (77)		45% (60)	3.03 (68)	225	31% (131)	90	4.02 (56)	#88 (.2)	42% (68)		41% (47)	43% (89)	3.97 (84)	28	1.3	1
WYO	#127 (.05)	36% (126)		39% (111)	2.64 (122)	138	34% (125)	189	3.07 (126)	#102 (.23)	44% (96)		43% (70)	45% (113)	3.97 (86)	49.6	1.3	0.9

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Offense	12	18.9	19.2	42.1%	4.02	1.3	18	314	225	90	4	82%	18%	45%	31%	12%	.13
WYO Defense	12	28.3	23.5	44%	3.97	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	43%	45%	15%	.23

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Defense	12	23.3	28.8	41.7%	3.97	1	-	-	-	-	-	56%	44%	41%	43%	15%	.2
WYO Offense	12	19.3	20	36.4%	3.07	1.3	17	327	138	189	3.6	54%	46%	39%	34%	17%	.05

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Air Force	12	33:58	17.9	42%	64%	3	28	1.3	1	4.3	1.5	0	28.6
Wyoming	12	30:52	17.3	36%	60%	5.5	49.6	1.3	0.9	5	1.3	2	28

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Offense	12	82% (2)	45% (60)	55.7	224.7	4	24 (45)	.15 (60)	3.03 (68)	83% (11)	9% (55)	0.88 (112)
WYO Defense	12	52% (82)	43% (70)	-	-	-	-	.21 (112)	3.09 (85)	62% (12)	9% (87)	1.19 (128)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Defense	12	56% (120)	41% (47)	-	-	-	-	.1 (56)	3.02 (73)	66% (28)	10% (63)	1.07 (101)
WYO Offense	12	54% (40)	39% (111)	38.2	138.1	3.6	14 (98)	.02 (117)	2.64 (122)	62% (121)	11% (92)	0.94 (83)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Offense	12	18% (133)	31% (131)	5.2	11.5	89.8	7.8	17.4	5 (134)	10 (63)	.09 (124)	2.1 (1)	27% (14)	25% (124)	.18 (111)	3% (2)	2.1 (66)
WYO Defense	12	48% (55)	45% (113)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (109)	.25 (78)	1.4 (10)	31% (81)	32% (85)	.32 (73)	5% (102)	1.8 (16)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Defense	12	44% (16)	43% (89)	-	-	-	-	-	-	4 (125)	.33 (107)	1.6 (63)	31% (79)	30% (54)	.3 (63)	5% (120)	2 (60)
WYO Offense	12	46% (93)	34% (125)	15.1	28.9	188.6	6.5	12.5	11 (122)	11 (72)	.08 (126)	1.8 (19)	34% (110)	25% (118)	.15 (126)	6% (72)	2.1 (62)

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -22.84 #125
Air Force's Offense Rating: 14.34 #112
Air Force's Defense Rating: 16.43 #117
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Air Force's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Air Force's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.7 #111
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.8 #120
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.5 #76

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -22.84 Wyoming: -13.155

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -11.7 Wyoming: -13.6

Wyoming's Power Ratings
Wyoming's Power Rating: -13.155 #117
Wyoming's Offense Rating: 11.64 #122
Wyoming's Defense Rating: 11.59 #84
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Wyoming's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Wyoming's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.6 #115
Wyoming's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.3 #127
Wyoming's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.8 #95

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 18.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.2
Defense: 23.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.8

Air Force's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Wyoming 21
Air Force 17

Total Points: 38

Based on Last 4 Games
Air Force 21
Wyoming 19

Total Points: 40

Based on Entire Season
Air Force 23
Wyoming 23

Total Points: 46

Wyoming Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 20
Defense: 28.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 23.5

Wyoming's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/18	Air Force	24	Wyoming	21	Air Force -4	Wyoming	56.5	Under
2024	09/28	Wyoming	31	Air Force	19	Air Force -4	Wyoming	33.5	Over
2023	10/14	Air Force	34	Wyoming	27	Air Force -12.5	Wyoming	42.0	Over
2022	09/16	Wyoming	17	Air Force	14	Air Force -16.5	Wyoming	47.0	Under
2021	10/09	Air Force	24	Wyoming	14	Air Force -5.5	Air Force	46.5	Under
2019	11/30	Air Force	20	Wyoming	6	Air Force -13.5	Air Force	41.5	Under
2018	11/17	Wyoming	35	Air Force	27	Wyoming -3	Wyoming	42.5	Over
2017	11/11	Air Force	14	Wyoming	28	Air Force -2.5	Wyoming	51.0	Under
2016	10/08	Wyoming	35	Air Force	26	Air Force -13.5	Wyoming	50.0	Over
2015	10/10	Air Force	31	Wyoming	17	Air Force -21.5	Wyoming	57.0	Under
2014	09/06	Wyoming	17	Air Force	13	Wyoming -1	Wyoming	0
2013	09/21	Air Force	23	Wyoming	56	Wyoming -2.5	Wyoming	0
2012	10/13	Wyoming	27	Air Force	28
2011	11/12	Air Force	17	Wyoming	25
2010	09/25	Wyoming	14	Air Force	20
2009	10/17	Air Force	10	Wyoming	0
2008	09/06	Wyoming	3	Air Force	23
2007	10/20	Air Force	20	Wyoming	12
2006	09/23	Wyoming	24	Air Force	31
2005	09/17	Air Force	28	Wyoming	29
2004	10/30	Wyoming	43	Air Force	26
2003	09/20	Air Force	35	Wyoming	29
2002	10/26	Wyoming	34	Air Force	26
2001	10/13	Air Force	24	Wyoming	13
2000	10/13	Wyoming	34	Air Force	51

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Wyoming	11	10	4 Overs
Air Force	14	2	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	16 - 9	7 - 5	4 - 4	3 - 1
Road Teams	9 - 16	5 - 7	1 - 3	4 - 4

(#125) AFA at (#117) WYO

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	AFA	WYO
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#125	#117
SP+SP+	#111	#115
Perf GradeGrade	#97	#105
OffenseOff	#72	#118
DefenseDef	#113	#69
Spec TeamsST	#129	#94
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#102

Air Force Notes(11/18) Rgame mauled Oreg St. Hayes good, Def great
(11/14) Have found their QB in So. Quentin Hayes
(11/3) QBs Hayes/Johnson vs Army, both bad, Rgame bad
(10/20) QB Busha started, 10-25. Rgame 3.2 ypc in CSU L
(10/18) QBs now 3 co-starters, Busha (orig #1) out of mix
(10/12) Killed by N Mex, Rgame 325 yds but Def torched
(10/8) Market hasn't caught up to how awful AFA is TY
(9/14) 10 pts in 2 losses. 3.2 ypc avg. Bad AFA team TY
(8/11) AF fell apart late LY losing 4 straight
(8/1) Restock year TY, Def rebuild, 6-6 type
(7/30) Calhoun & staff win 9+ games every year since '19
(7/30) Last in CFB in return prod, but normal at AFA
Air Force Injury Report

Wyoming Notes(11/25) Fight w/ Boise, Off awful, Def fought hard in L
(11/18) Off abysmal vs CSU, WR drops all over. Awful TY
(11/15) HC Sawvel is a f'ing idiot, punts down 14 late
(11/3) Off much better, QB Anderson lit up N. Mex in W
(10/20) 310 yds & 3 TOs vs SJSU. Forced 4 TOs in L
(10/17) Running more tempo in '24, Overs are 5-1
(10/13) QB Svoboda awful, Rgame better in L SDSU
(9/20) Off is near worst in CFB. WR awful, QB bad
(9/8) Lost @ home to Idaho? QB awful, penalties
(9/1) Mauled @ ASU, DL 241 yds rushing, run game awful
(8/11) DL may be best in MWC, OL exp'd and rising
(7/31) Exp'd team, great at home, can Off rise up?
Wyoming Injury Report

Air Force on Offense

Option Offense 82%, Pass: 18%
CategoryCat	AFA Off	WYO Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#72	#69
SuccessSuc	#77	#96
ExplosiveExp	#134	#65
PPAPPA	#103	#102
PowerPwr	#112	#84
SP+SP+	#120	#95
Pts POPPO	#56	#86
HavocHav	#16	#92

Air Force Run Game

Option Offense 82%, Pass: 18%
CategoryCat	AFA Off	WYO Def
Run GameRun	#109	#46
Run SuccessRSuc	#60	#70
Run ExplRExp	#112	#128
PPAExp	#60	#112
Run BlockR Blk	#17	-
OL YdsOLY	#68	#85
Stuff RateStuff	#21	#58
TackleTak	-	#96

Air Force Pass Game

Option Offense 82%, Pass: 18%
CategoryCat	AFA Off	WYO Def
Pass GamePass	#122	#85
Pass SuccessPSuc	#131	#113
Pass ExplPExl	#1	#10
PPAExp	#124	#78
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#133	#75
F7 HavocF7	#55	#87
DB HavocDB	#2	#102

Wyoming on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	WYO Off	AFA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#118	#113
SuccessSuc	#126	#68
ExplosiveExp	#60	#84
PPAPPA	#127	#88
PowerPwr	#122	#117
SP+SP+	#127	#76
Pts POPPO	#126	#84
HavocHav	#86	#86

Wyoming Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	WYO Off	AFA Def
Run GameRun	#125	#109
Run SuccessRSuc	#111	#47
Run ExplRExp	#83	#101
PPAExp	#117	#56
Run BlockR Blk	#60	-
OL YdsOLY	#122	#73
Stuff RateStuff	#108	#82
TackleTak	-	#61

Wyoming Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	WYO Off	AFA Def
Pass GamePass	#122	#115
Pass SuccessPSuc	#125	#89
Pass ExplPExl	#19	#63
PPAExp	#126	#107
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#112	#96
F7 HavocF7	#92	#63
DB HavocDB	#72	#120

Program Comparison
WYO 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'24 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

AFA 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'24 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in War Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 71° - Wind: 15 mph

Rematch from Week 5
Air Force 4.0 (33.5)
Wyoming won vs Air Force this year (31-19)

Previous Matchups
Wyoming beat Air Force last year (31-19)
Air Force beat Wyoming in 2023 (34-27)
Wyoming beat Air Force in 2022 (17-14)

AFA's OC Mike Thiessen (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
John Busha	29	79	37%	415	1	5	5.3
Quentin Hayes	25	43	58%	455	3	2	10.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dylan Carson	138	600	5	4.3	50
Quentin Hayes	126	466	7	3.7	30
Owen Allen	77	335	2	4.4	14
Cade Harris	48	279	4	5.8	30

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cade Harris	23	368	2	16.0	76
Quin Smith	10	207	1	20.7	39
Jared Roznos	5	109	0	21.8	52
Bruin Fleischmann	5	104	0	20.8	43

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC Brian Knorr (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Camby Goff	67	3	0	1	3
Jamari Bellamy	64	3	0	0	4
Osaro Aihie	58	2	2	0	1
Lincoln Tuioti-Mariner	50	8	2	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
David Santiago	37	5	4	2	3
Peyton Zdroik	18	7	3	3	0
Osaro Aihie	58	2	2	0	1
Lincoln Tuioti-Mariner	50	8	2	1	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jamari Bellamy	64	3	0	4
Trey Williams	31	1	0	4
Camby Goff	67	3	1	3

WYO's OC Jay Johnson (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Evan Svoboda	111	226	49%	1308	5	8	5.8
Kaden Anderson	70	120	58%	955	6	3	8.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Sam Scott	92	435	3	4.7	43
Harrison Waylee	63	323	1	5.1	36
Jamari Ferrell	80	318	1	4.0	62
Evan Svoboda	109	237	5	2.2	51

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaylen Sargent	23	480	2	20.9	70
Johnmichael Gyllenborg	30	425	3	14.2	63
Chris Durr Jr.	31	348	1	11.2	40
Tyler King (Tr)	17	236	0	13.9	36

View Wyoming's Full Roster

WYO's DC Aaron Bohl (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Shae Suiaunoa	87	10	1	3	2
Connor Shay	76	8	2	2	3
Isaac White	57	2	0	0	2
Wrook Brown	48	1	0	0	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Tyce Westland	41	6	3	0
Sabastian Harsh	41	9	3	1
Braden Siders	20	4	2	0
DeVonne Harris	21	5	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Tyrecus Davis	42	1	8
Keany Parks	41	1	7
Wrook Brown	48	1	6