Air Force at Army - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 2nd 2024 (12:00 PM EDT)
Army -18 (38.5) (-1100) Open: -23.0
Army 20 - Air Force: 3

Falcons (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (130 - 82)
Avg Score : 19 - 23 (19 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

AFA coming off BYE
ARMY coming off BYE
Our Line: Army -27 (SP+ ARMY -21)
Projected Score: AFA: 10 - ARMY: 37 (47)
ARMY Win prob: 91% | Cover: 49%
AFA Travel: 1630 miles, 2 hrs behind

Black Knights (12 - 2) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jeff Monken (70 - 55)
Avg Score : 31 - 16 (36 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 12 - 2 (#6)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
AFA Players
ARMY Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Air Force's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Air Force vs Merrimack	-30.5	47.5	W 21 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/7	Air Force vs San José State	-1.5	43.5	L 7 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/14	Air Force at Baylor	+17.5	40.5	L 3 - 31	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Air Force at Wyoming	-4.0	33.5	L 19 - 31	O	N
Sat 10/5	Air Force vs Navy	+10.0	37.0	L 7 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/12	Air Force at New Mexico	+7.0	56.0	L 37 - 52	O	N
Sat 10/19	Air Force vs Colorado State	+6.0	43.5	L 13 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	Air Force at Army	+18.0	38.5	L 3 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/9	Air Force vs Fresno State	+9.5	40.5	W 36 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Air Force vs Oregon State	+3.0	44.5	W 28 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Air Force at Nevada	+3.0	44.5	W 22 - 19	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Air Force at San Diego State	-6.5	43.5	W 31 - 20	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule

Army's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/30	Army vs Lehigh	-28
Sat 9/7	Army at Florida Atlantic	+1.5	42.5	W 24 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Army vs Rice	-7.0	44.0	W 37 - 14	O	Y
Thu 9/26	Army at Temple	-11.0	46.5	W 42 - 14	O	Y
Sat 10/5	Army at Tulsa	-13.5	50.5	W 49 - 7	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Army vs UAB	-27.0	55.5	W 44 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Army vs East Carolina	-17.5	54.0	W 45 - 28	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	Army vs Air Force	-18.0	38.5	W 20 - 3	U	N
Sat 11/9	Army at North Texas	-6.5	68.0	W 14 - 3	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Army vs Notre Dame	+14.5	44.5	L 14 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/30	Army vs UTSA	-6.5	53.5	W 29 - 24	U	N
Fri 12/6	Army vs Tulane	+4.5	46.5	W 35 - 14	O	Y
Sat 12/14	Army vs Navy	-6.0	39.5
Sat 12/28	Army vs Louisiana Tech	-15.0	44.5	W 27 - 6	U	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA	#103 (.13)	42% (77)	18.9	45% (60)	3.03 (68)	225	31% (131)	90	4.02 (56)	#88 (.2)	42% (68)	23.3	41% (47)	43% (89)	3.97 (84)	28	1.3	1
ARMY	#10 (.32)	51% (6)	31.1	52% (7)	3.57 (5)	278	43% (52)	76	4.47 (19)	#39 (.12)	43% (89)	15.5	45% (87)	43% (88)	2.57 (2)	30.5	0.6	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA	#103 (.13)	42% (77)		45% (60)	3.03 (68)	225	31% (131)	90	4.02 (56)	#88 (.2)	42% (68)		41% (47)	43% (89)	3.97 (84)	28	1.3	1
ARMY	#10 (.32)	51% (6)		52% (7)	3.57 (5)	278	43% (52)	76	4.47 (19)	#39 (.12)	43% (89)		45% (87)	43% (88)	2.57 (2)	30.5	0.6	1.4

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Offense	12	18.9	19.2	42.1%	4.02	1.3	18	314	225	90	4	82%	18%	45%	31%	12%	.13
ARMY Defense	14	15.5	14.3	43.4%	2.57	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	45%	43%	14%	.12

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Defense	12	23.3	28.8	41.7%	3.97	1	-	-	-	-	-	56%	44%	41%	43%	15%	.2
ARMY Offense	14	31.1	36	50.7%	4.47	0.6	19	354	278	76	5.6	86%	14%	52%	43%	8%	.32

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Air Force	12	33:58	17.9	42%	64%	3	28	1.3	1	4.3	1.5	0	28.6
Army	14	32:46	19.1	49%	77%	3.1	30.5	0.6	1.4	3.9	1.4	0	29.4

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Offense	12	82% (2)	45% (60)	55.7	224.7	4	24 (45)	.15 (60)	3.03 (68)	83% (11)	9% (55)	0.88 (112)
ARMY Defense	14	47% (32)	45% (87)	-	-	-	-	.14 (79)	3.22 (100)	67% (29)	9% (92)	0.94 (46)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Defense	12	56% (120)	41% (47)	-	-	-	-	.1 (56)	3.02 (73)	66% (28)	10% (63)	1.07 (101)
ARMY Offense	14	86% (1)	52% (7)	49.9	277.8	5.6	44 (2)	.3 (9)	3.57 (5)	86% (3)	6% (2)	0.98 (60)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Offense	12	18% (133)	31% (131)	5.2	11.5	89.8	7.8	17.4	5 (134)	10 (63)	.09 (124)	2.1 (1)	27% (14)	25% (124)	.18 (111)	3% (2)	2.1 (66)
ARMY Defense	14	52% (99)	43% (88)	-	-	-	-	-	-	17 (5)	.15 (30)	1.5 (25)	32% (68)	30% (57)	.29 (60)	5% (96)	2.1 (91)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Defense	12	44% (16)	43% (89)	-	-	-	-	-	-	4 (125)	.33 (107)	1.6 (63)	31% (79)	30% (54)	.3 (63)	5% (120)	2 (60)
ARMY Offense	14	14% (134)	43% (52)	4.6	8.1	75.9	9.4	16.6	10 (127)	4 (1)	.43 (8)	1.9 (4)	23% (1)	32% (56)	.31 (80)	2% (1)	1.7 (134)

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -22.84 #125
Air Force's Offense Rating: 14.34 #112
Air Force's Defense Rating: 16.43 #117
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Air Force's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Air Force's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.7 #111
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.8 #120
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.5 #76

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -22.84 Army: 9.865

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -11.7 Army: 9.2

Army's Power Ratings
Army's Power Rating: 9.865 #42
Army's Offense Rating: 26.97 #9
Army's Defense Rating: 8.96 #64
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Army's 2024 Expected Record: 12.0 - 2.0
Army's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.2 #37
Army's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.1 #42
Army's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.7 #33

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 18.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.2
Defense: 23.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.8

Air Force's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Army 37
Air Force 10

Total Points: 47

Based on Last 4 Games
Army 41
Air Force 20

Total Points: 62

Based on Entire Season
Army 30
Air Force 17

Total Points: 47

Army Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 36
Defense: 15.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 14.3

Army's 2024 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/01	Air Force	17	Army	20	Army -1.5	Army	48.5	Under
2024	11/02	Army	20	Air Force	3	Army -18	Air Force	38.5	Under
2023	11/04	Air Force	3	Army	23	Air Force -18.5	Army	32.0	Under
2022	11/05	Army	7	Air Force	13	Air Force -7	Army	40.5	Under
2021	11/06	Air Force	14	Army	21	Air Force -2.5	Army	37.5	Under
2020	12/19	Army	10	Air Force	7	Air Force -3	Army	37.0	Under
2019	11/02	Air Force	17	Army	13	Air Force -17	Army	44.5	Under
2018	11/03	Army	17	Air Force	14	Army -4.5	Air Force	41.5	Under
2017	11/04	Air Force	0	Army	21	Air Force -6.5	Army	54.5	Under
2016	11/05	Army	12	Air Force	31	Air Force -3	Air Force	46.5	Under
2015	11/07	Air Force	20	Army	3	Air Force -17.5	Army	50.5	Under
2014	11/01	Army	6	Air Force	23	Air Force -5.5	Air Force	0
2013	11/02	Air Force	42	Army	28	Air Force -1.5	Air Force	0
2012	11/03	Army	41	Air Force	21
2011	11/05	Air Force	24	Army	14
2010	11/06	Army	22	Air Force	42
2009	11/07	Air Force	35	Army	7
2008	11/01	Army	7	Air Force	16
2007	11/03	Air Force	30	Army	10
2006	11/03	Army	7	Air Force	43
2005	11/05	Air Force	24	Army	27
2004	11/06	Army	22	Air Force	31
2003	11/08	Air Force	31	Army	3
2002	11/09	Army	30	Air Force	49
2001	11/03	Air Force	34	Army	24
2000	11/03	Army	27	Air Force	41

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Army	9	8	0 Overs
Air Force	17	5	11 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 14	3 - 10	1 - 7	2 - 3
Road Teams	14 - 12	10 - 3	3 - 2	7 - 1

(#125) AFA at (#42) ARMY

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	AFA	ARMY
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#125	#42
SP+SP+	#111	#37
Perf GradeGrade	#97	#6
OffenseOff	#72	#1
DefenseDef	#113	#79
Spec TeamsST	#129	#57
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#102

Air Force Notes(11/18) Rgame mauled Oreg St. Hayes good, Def great
(11/14) Have found their QB in So. Quentin Hayes
(11/3) QBs Hayes/Johnson vs Army, both bad, Rgame bad
(10/20) QB Busha started, 10-25. Rgame 3.2 ypc in CSU L
(10/18) QBs now 3 co-starters, Busha (orig #1) out of mix
(10/12) Killed by N Mex, Rgame 325 yds but Def torched
(10/8) Market hasn't caught up to how awful AFA is TY
(9/14) 10 pts in 2 losses. 3.2 ypc avg. Bad AFA team TY
(8/11) AF fell apart late LY losing 4 straight
(8/1) Restock year TY, Def rebuild, 6-6 type
(7/30) Calhoun & staff win 9+ games every year since '19
(7/30) Last in CFB in return prod, but normal at AFA
Air Force Injury Report

Army Notes(12/14) Killed by Navy, offense was awful (2.9 ypc, 3 TO's)
(12/6) Beat UTSA, routed Tulane in AAC title game
(12/6) 57 car, 335 yds, 5.9 ypc, 5 TD in AAC Title game
(11/25) Killed by ND, avg 16 ppg in last 3. AACC vs Tulane
(11/16) Clinched AAC title game appearance
(11/3) QB Daily DNP vs Air Force
(11/3) Rgame OK vs AFA w/o Daily, not near with him
(11/1) 3-0 w/ avg 31 ppg margin of victory in Oct
(10/22) Def stop rate 79% (#5) but bad opp Off so far
(10/20) Rgame 295 yds, 5.3 ypc. QB 7-10, 147 vs ECU
(10/18) Great start, played no one, Def still #88 success
(9/26) Ran for 417 (7.3 ypc) vs Temple. Absolute machine
Army Injury Report

Air Force on Offense

Option Offense 82%, Pass: 18%
CategoryCat	AFA Off	ARMY Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#72	#79
SuccessSuc	#77	#89
ExplosiveExp	#134	#40
PPAPPA	#103	#39
PowerPwr	#112	#64
SP+SP+	#120	#33
Pts POPPO	#56	#2
HavocHav	#16	#100

Air Force Run Game

Option Offense 82%, Pass: 18%
CategoryCat	AFA Off	ARMY Def
Run GameRun	#109	#85
Run SuccessRSuc	#60	#87
Run ExplRExp	#112	#46
PPAExp	#60	#79
Run BlockR Blk	#17	-
OL YdsOLY	#68	#100
Stuff RateStuff	#21	#92
TackleTak	-	#62

Air Force Pass Game

Option Offense 82%, Pass: 18%
CategoryCat	AFA Off	ARMY Def
Pass GamePass	#122	#68
Pass SuccessPSuc	#131	#88
Pass ExplPExl	#1	#25
PPAExp	#124	#30
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#133	#104
F7 HavocF7	#55	#92
DB HavocDB	#2	#96

Army on Offense

Option Offense 86%, Pass: 14%
CategoryCat	ARMY Off	AFA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#1	#113
SuccessSuc	#6	#68
ExplosiveExp	#132	#84
PPAPPA	#10	#88
PowerPwr	#9	#117
SP+SP+	#42	#76
Pts POPPO	#19	#84
HavocHav	#1	#86

Army Run Game

Option Offense 86%, Pass: 14%
CategoryCat	ARMY Off	AFA Def
Run GameRun	#9	#109
Run SuccessRSuc	#7	#47
Run ExplRExp	#60	#101
PPAExp	#9	#56
Run BlockR Blk	#1	-
OL YdsOLY	#5	#73
Stuff RateStuff	#1	#82
TackleTak	-	#61

Army Pass Game

Option Offense 86%, Pass: 14%
CategoryCat	ARMY Off	AFA Def
Pass GamePass	#67	#115
Pass SuccessPSuc	#52	#89
Pass ExplPExl	#4	#63
PPAExp	#8	#107
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#69	#96
F7 HavocF7	#2	#63
DB HavocDB	#1	#120

Program Comparison
ARMY 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'24 Profile: Up to Average P4

AFA 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'24 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Blaik Field at Michie Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 56°

Rematch from Week 10
Army -18.0 (38.5)
Army won vs Air Force this year (20-3)

Previous Matchups
Army beat Air Force last year (20-3)
Army beat Air Force in 2023 (23-3)
Air Force beat Army in 2022 (13-7)

AFA's OC Mike Thiessen (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
John Busha	29	79	37%	415	1	5	5.3
Quentin Hayes	25	43	58%	455	3	2	10.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dylan Carson	138	600	5	4.3	50
Quentin Hayes	126	466	7	3.7	30
Owen Allen	77	335	2	4.4	14
Cade Harris	48	279	4	5.8	30

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cade Harris	23	368	2	16.0	76
Quin Smith	10	207	1	20.7	39
Jared Roznos	5	109	0	21.8	52
Bruin Fleischmann	5	104	0	20.8	43

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC Brian Knorr (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Camby Goff	67	3	0	1	3
Jamari Bellamy	64	3	0	0	4
Osaro Aihie	58	2	2	0	1
Lincoln Tuioti-Mariner	50	8	2	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
David Santiago	37	5	4	2	3
Peyton Zdroik	18	7	3	3	0
Osaro Aihie	58	2	2	0	1
Lincoln Tuioti-Mariner	50	8	2	1	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jamari Bellamy	64	3	0	4
Trey Williams	31	1	0	4
Camby Goff	67	3	1	3

ARMY's OC Cody Worley (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Bryson Daily	54	103	52%	1007	9	4	9.8
Dewayne Coleman	11	16	69%	121	1	0	7.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bryson Daily	311	1653	32	5.3	42
Kanye Udoh	179	1117	10	6.2	72
Noah Short	75	569	2	7.6	61
Hayden Reed	40	207	1	5.2	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Casey Reynolds	19	449	3	23.6	50
Noah Short	17	318	3	18.7	58
Cam Schurr	7	83	1	11.9	18
Hayden Reed	6	63	1	10.5	23

View Army's Full Roster

ARMY's DC Nate Woody (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Andon Thomas	85	3	0	1	2
Kalib Fortner	76	10	3	4	3
Max DiDomenico	56	2	0	0	3
Chance Keith	45	2	1	2	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Elo Modozie	30	8	6	7	1
Brett Gerena	40	3	3	1	0
Kyle Lewis	25	4	3	1	0
Kalib Fortner	76	10	3	4	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Gavin Shields	10	1	0	0	4
Max DiDomenico	56	2	0	0	3
Chance Keith	45	2	1	2	3