Air Force at Army - 2024 Matchup Preview
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Air Force Falcons at Army Black Knights

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Saturday, November 2nd 2024 (12:00 PM EDT)
Army -18 (38.5) (-1100)  Open: -23.0
Army 20 - Air Force: 3

 
Falcons (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (130 - 82)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (32 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
AFA coming off BYE
ARMY coming off BYE
Our Line: Army -27  (SP+ ARMY -21)

Projected Score: AFA: 10 - ARMY: 37 (47)
ARMY Win prob: 91% | Cover: 49%
AFA Travel: 1630 miles, 2 hrs behind
Black Knights (12 - 2) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jeff Monken (70 - 55)
Avg Score : 24 - 22 (26 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 12 - 2 (#6)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Air Force's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Air Force vs Merrimack-30.547.5W 21 - 6UN
Sat 9/7 Air Force vs San José State-1.543.5L 7 - 17UN
Sat 9/14 Air Force at Baylor+17.540.5L 3 - 31UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28 Air Force at Wyoming-4.033.5L 19 - 31ON
Sat 10/5 Air Force vs Navy+10.037.0L 7 - 34ON
Sat 10/12 Air Force at New Mexico+7.056.0L 37 - 52ON
Sat 10/19 Air Force vs Colorado State+6.043.5L 13 - 21UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2 Air Force at Army+18.038.5L 3 - 20UY
Sat 11/9 Air Force vs Fresno State+9.540.5W 36 - 28OY
Sat 11/16 Air Force vs Oregon State+3.044.5W 28 - 0UY
Sat 11/23 Air Force at Nevada+3.044.5W 22 - 19UY
Sat 11/30 Air Force at San Diego State-6.543.5W 31 - 20OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule
Army's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30 Army vs Lehigh-28
Sat 9/7 Army at Florida Atlantic+1.542.5W 24 - 7UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21 Army vs Rice-7.044.0W 37 - 14OY
Thu 9/26 Army at Temple-11.046.5W 42 - 14OY
Sat 10/5 Army at Tulsa-13.550.5W 49 - 7OY
Sat 10/12 Army vs UAB-27.055.5W 44 - 10UY
Sat 10/19 Army vs East Carolina-17.554.0W 45 - 28ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2 Army vs Air Force-18.038.5W 20 - 3UN
Sat 11/9 Army at North Texas-6.568.0W 14 - 3UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Army vs Notre Dame+14.544.5L 14 - 49ON
Sat 11/30 Army vs UTSA-6.553.5W 29 - 24UN
Fri 12/6 Army vs Tulane+4.546.5W 35 - 14OY
Sat 12/14 Army vs Navy-6.039.5
Sat 12/28 Army vs Louisiana Tech-15.044.5W 27 - 6UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Army's Schedule
Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
AFA#26 (.28)45% (31)29.846% (34)3.48 (8)28141% (74)854.05 (52)#28 (.12)39% (38)30.337% (16)42% (79)3.96 (85)24.81.31.1
ARMY#99 (.13)40% (99)23.841% (91)3.33 (27)20937% (105)1033.07 (122)#95 (.23)46% (116)21.647% (107)46% (119)2.58 (3)36.31.81.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
AFA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ARMY0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
AFA Offense1329.832.245.5%4.051.320366281855.185%14%46%41%9%.28
ARMY Defense1221.624.245.6%2.581.6 - - - - - 56%43%47%46%12%.23
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
AFA Defense1330.332.839.3%3.961.1 - - - - - 49%50%37%42%14%.12
ARMY Offense1223.825.639.5%3.071.8163122091034.476%22%41%37%12%.13

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Air Force1333:2619.646%68%324.81.31.14.52230.6
Army1232:3216.338%59%3.936.31.81.63.91.4332.7
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
AFA Offense1385% (1)46% (34)54.7280.65.136 (4).27 (14)3.48 (8)80% (19)8% (22)1.02 (56)
ARMY Defense1256% (123)47% (107) - - - - .26 (123)3.44 (122)63% (17)8% (112)1.06 (96)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
AFA Defense1349% (58)37% (16) - - - - .06 (26)2.67 (13)79% (106)9% (93)0.99 (61)
ARMY Offense1276% (2)41% (91)47.8208.84.419 (69).11 (88)3.33 (27)82% (9)9% (42)0.89 (118)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
AFA Offense1314% (133)41% (74)4.28.18510.520.17 (129)6 (14).51 (9)2.3 (1)23% (1)27% (93).39 (48)2% (1)2.3 (7)
ARMY Defense1243% (9)46% (119) - - - - - - 9 (87).27 (71)1.4 (16)27% (130)29% (57).26 (40)4% (131)2.2 (110)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
AFA Defense1350% (80)42% (79) - - - - - - 10 (67).21 (36)1.5 (19)34% (44)29% (45).34 (85)5% (103)2 (59)
ARMY Offense1222% (132)37% (105)6.913.7102.87.514.97 (129)11 (68).33 (51)2 (2)29% (21)23% (127).14 (120)3% (5)1.9 (115)

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -22.84  #125
Air Force's Offense Rating: 14.34  #112
Air Force's Defense Rating: 16.43  #117
2024 Talent Rating: 85.00  #132
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #102
Air Force's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Air Force's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.7  #111
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.8  #120
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.5  #76

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 190
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -22.84   Army: 9.865

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -11.7   Army: 9.2




Army's Power Ratings
Army's Power Rating: 9.865  #42
Army's Offense Rating: 26.97  #9
Army's Defense Rating: 8.96  #64
2024 Talent Rating: 71.00  #133
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #102
Army's 2024 Expected Record: 12.0 - 2.0
Army's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.2  #37
Army's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.1  #42
Army's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.7  #33

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 238.57
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4


Air Force Scoring
Offense: 29.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 32.2
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Air Force's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Army 37
Air Force 10


Projected Total Points: 47
Army Scoring
Offense: 23.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.6
Defense: 21.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.2

Army's 2024 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/01Air Force17Army20Army -1.5Army48.5Under
202411/02Army20Air Force3Army -18Air Force38.5Under
202311/04Air Force3Army23Air Force -18.5Army32.0Under
202211/05Army7Air Force13Air Force -7Army40.5Under
202111/06Air Force14Army21Air Force -2.5Army37.5Under
202012/19Army10Air Force7Air Force -3Army37.0Under
201911/02Air Force17Army13Air Force -17Army44.5Under
201811/03Army17Air Force14Army -4.5Air Force41.5Under
201711/04Air Force0Army21Air Force -6.5Army54.5Under
201611/05Army12Air Force31Air Force -3Air Force46.5Under
201511/07Air Force20Army3Air Force -17.5Army50.5Under
201411/01Army6Air Force23Air Force -5.5Air Force0
201311/02Air Force42Army28Air Force -1.5Air Force0
201211/03Army41Air Force21
201111/05Air Force24Army14
201011/06Army22Air Force42
200911/07Air Force35Army7
200811/01Army7Air Force16
200711/03Air Force30Army10
200611/03Army7Air Force43
200511/05Air Force24Army27
200411/06Army22Air Force31
200311/08Air Force31Army3
200211/09Army30Air Force49
200111/03Air Force34Army24
200011/03Army27Air Force41
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Army980 Overs
Air Force17511 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 143 - 101 - 72 - 3
Road Teams14 - 1210 - 33 - 27 - 1

(#125) AFA at (#42) ARMY
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatAFAARMY
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #125 #42
SP+SP+ #111 #37
Perf GradeGrade #97 #6
OffenseOff #72 #1
DefenseDef #113 #79
Spec TeamsST #129 #57
TalentTal #132 #133
Blue ChipsBC% #102 #102
Air Force Notes
(11/18) Rgame mauled Oreg St. Hayes good, Def great
(11/14) Have found their QB in So. Quentin Hayes
(11/3) QBs Hayes/Johnson vs Army, both bad, Rgame bad
(10/20) QB Busha started, 10-25. Rgame 3.2 ypc in CSU L
(10/18) QBs now 3 co-starters, Busha (orig #1) out of mix
(10/12) Killed by N Mex, Rgame 325 yds but Def torched
(10/8) Market hasn't caught up to how awful AFA is TY
(9/14) 10 pts in 2 losses. 3.2 ypc avg. Bad AFA team TY
(8/11) AF fell apart late LY losing 4 straight
(8/1) Restock year TY, Def rebuild, 6-6 type
(7/30) Calhoun & staff win 9+ games every year since '19
(7/30) Last in CFB in return prod, but normal at AFA
Air Force Injury Report
Army Notes
(12/14) Killed by Navy, offense was awful (2.9 ypc, 3 TO's)
(12/6) Beat UTSA, routed Tulane in AAC title game
(12/6) 57 car, 335 yds, 5.9 ypc, 5 TD in AAC Title game
(11/25) Killed by ND, avg 16 ppg in last 3. AACC vs Tulane
(11/16) Clinched AAC title game appearance
(11/3) QB Daily DNP vs Air Force
(11/3) Rgame OK vs AFA w/o Daily, not near with him
(11/1) 3-0 w/ avg 31 ppg margin of victory in Oct
(10/22) Def stop rate 79% (#5) but bad opp Off so far
(10/20) Rgame 295 yds, 5.3 ypc. QB 7-10, 147 vs ECU
(10/18) Great start, played no one, Def still #88 success
(9/26) Ran for 417 (7.3 ypc) vs Temple. Absolute machine
Army Injury Report
Air Force on Offense
Option Offense 82%, Pass: 18%
CategoryCat
AFA OffARMY Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #72 #79
SuccessSuc #31 #116
ExplosiveExp #115 #35
PPAPPA #26 #95
PowerPwr #112 #64
SP+SP+ #120 #33
Pts POPPO #52 #3
HavocHav #3 #127
Air Force Run Game
Option Offense 82%, Pass: 18%
CategoryCat
AFA OffARMY Def
Run GameRun #109 #85
Run SuccessRSuc #34 #107
Run ExplRExp #56 #96
PPAExp #14 #123
Run BlockR Blk #17 -
OL YdsOLY #8 #122
Stuff RateStuff #1 #110
TackleTak -  #62
Air Force Pass Game
Option Offense 82%, Pass: 18%
CategoryCat
AFA OffARMY Def
Pass GamePass #122 #68
Pass SuccessPSuc #74 #119
Pass ExplPExl #1 #16
PPAExp #9 #71
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #133 #104
F7 HavocF7 #22 #112
DB HavocDB #1 #131
Army on Offense
Option Offense 86%, Pass: 14%
CategoryCatARMY OffAFA Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #1 #113
SuccessSuc #99 #38
ExplosiveExp #125 #42
PPAPPA #99 #28
PowerPwr #9 #117
SP+SP+ #42 #76
Pts POPPO #122 #85
HavocHav #11 #113
Army Run Game
Option Offense 86%, Pass: 14%
CategoryCat
ARMY OffAFA Def
Run GameRun #9 #109
Run SuccessRSuc #91 #16
Run ExplRExp #118 #61
PPAExp #88 #26
Run BlockR Blk #1 -
OL YdsOLY #27 #13
Stuff RateStuff #8 #44
TackleTak -  #61
Army Pass Game
Option Offense 86%, Pass: 14%
CategoryCatARMY OffAFA Def
Pass GamePass #67 #115
Pass SuccessPSuc #105 #79
Pass ExplPExl #2 #19
PPAExp #51 #36
Pass Block/RushP Blk #69 #96
F7 HavocF7 #42 #93
DB HavocDB #5 #103
Program Comparison
ARMY 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'24 Profile: Up to Average P4

AFA 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'24 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Blaik Field at Michie Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 10
Army -18.0 (38.5)
Army won vs Air Force this year (20-3)

Previous Matchups
Army beat Air Force last year (20-17)
Army beat Air Force in 2024 (20-3)
Army beat Air Force in 2023 (23-3)

  
AFA's OC Mike Thiessen (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
John Busha297937%415155.3
Quentin Hayes254358%4553210.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dylan Carson13860054.350
Quentin Hayes12646673.730
Owen Allen7733524.414
Cade Harris4827945.830
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cade Harris23368216.076
Quin Smith10207120.739
Jared Roznos5109021.852
Bruin Fleischmann5104020.843

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC Brian Knorr (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Camby Goff673013
Jamari Bellamy643004
Osaro Aihie582201
Lincoln Tuioti-Mariner508212
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
David Santiago375423
Peyton Zdroik187330
Osaro Aihie582201
Lincoln Tuioti-Mariner508212
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamari Bellamy643004
Trey Williams311004
Camby Goff673013

ARMY's OC Cody Worley (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bryson Daily5410352%1007949.8
Dewayne Coleman111669%121107.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryson Daily3111653325.342
Kanye Udoh1791117106.272
Noah Short7556927.661
Hayden Reed4020715.215
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Casey Reynolds19449323.650
Noah Short17318318.758
Cam Schurr783111.918
Hayden Reed663110.523

View Army's Full Roster

ARMY's DC Nate Woody (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Andon Thomas853012
Kalib Fortner7610343
Max DiDomenico562003
Chance Keith452123
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elo Modozie308671
Brett Gerena403310
Kyle Lewis254310
Kalib Fortner7610343
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Gavin Shields101004
Max DiDomenico562003
Chance Keith452123