Virginia at Wake Forest - 2024 Matchup Preview

Virginia Cavaliers at Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Saturday, September 7th 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
Virginia -1.5 (55.5) (-110) Open: -1.5 | 56.5
Virginia 31 - Wake Forest: 30 (ACC)

Cavaliers (5 - 7) (5 - 6 - 0)
Coach Tony Elliott (6 - 16)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (29 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

WAKE 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Virginia -2 (SP+ UVA -0.5)
Projected Score: UVA: 27 - WAKE: 25 (53)
UVA Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
UVA Travel: 163 miles

Demon Deacons (4 - 8) (4 - 6 - 1)
Coach Dave Clawson (63 - 61)
Avg Score : 28 - 22 (28 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UVA Players
WAKE Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Virginia's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Virginia vs Richmond	-21
Sat 9/7	Virginia at Wake Forest	-1.5	55.5	W 31 - 30	O	N
Sat 9/14	Virginia vs Maryland	-2.5	55.5	L 13 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/21	Virginia at Coastal Carolina	-3.5	52.0	W 43 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Virginia vs Boston College	-2.0	52.5	W 24 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Virginia vs Louisville	+7.0	54.0	L 20 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Virginia at Clemson	+20.0	57.5	L 31 - 48	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Virginia vs North Carolina	-3.5	58.5	L 14 - 41	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Virginia at Pittsburgh	+7.5	56.5	W 24 - 19	U	Y
Sat 11/16	Virginia at Notre Dame	+20.5	51.0	L 14 - 35	U	N
Sat 11/23	Virginia vs SMU	+11.5	54.5	L 7 - 33	U	N
Sat 11/30	Virginia at Virginia Tech	+4.5	44.5	L 17 - 37	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Virginia's Schedule

Wake Forest's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Wake Forest vs North Carolina A&T	-20.5
Sat 9/7	Wake Forest vs Virginia	+1.5	55.5	L 30 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Wake Forest vs Ole Miss	+20.5	65.5	L 6 - 40	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Wake Forest vs Louisiana	-3.0	59.5	L 38 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/5	Wake Forest at NC State	+4.0	52.5	W 34 - 30	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Wake Forest vs Clemson	+21.0	63.0	L 14 - 49	U	N
Sat 10/19	Wake Forest at UConn	-2.5	55.5	W 23 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Wake Forest at Stanford	-3.0	53.0	W 27 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/8	Wake Forest vs California	+7.5	54.5	L 36 - 46	O	N
Sat 11/16	Wake Forest at North Carolina	+10.5	64.5	L 24 - 31	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Wake Forest at Miami	+23.5	67.0	L 14 - 42	U	N
Sat 11/30	Wake Forest vs Duke	+3.5	53.5	L 17 - 23	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UVA	#88 (.15)	41% (84)	30.8	42% (82)	3 (89)	118	41% (76)	251	3.68 (85)	#117 (.26)	45% (113)	19.6	48% (118)	43% (90)	4.15 (103)	55.3	1.7	1.2
WAKE	#122 (.07)	41% (76)	28.1	42% (85)	2.97 (97)	130	42% (65)	196	3.03 (124)	#89 (.21)	41% (49)	22.1	40% (40)	42% (74)	4.25 (110)	38.8	1.8	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UVA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
WAKE		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UVA Offense	12	30.8	28.6	41%	3.68	1.7	21	369	118	251	3.1	49%	50%	42%	41%	19%	.15
WAKE Defense	12	22.1	17.3	40.5%	4.25	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	40%	42%	17%	.21

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UVA Defense	12	19.6	23.2	45.2%	4.15	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	48%	43%	15%	.26
WAKE Offense	12	28.1	28.3	41.4%	3.03	1.8	20	326	130	196	3.3	54%	45%	42%	42%	24%	.07

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Virginia	12	31:24	21	36%	60%	6.5	55.3	1.7	1.2	4.8	0.9	1	28.1
Wake Forest	12	29:05	19.9	34%	42%	4.1	38.8	1.8	1.3	5.8	1.9	1	30.7

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UVA Offense	12	49% (76)	42% (82)	37.8	117.9	3.1	12 (116)	.11 (91)	3 (89)	70% (98)	13% (123)	0.89 (113)
WAKE Defense	12	51% (79)	40% (40)	-	-	-	-	.06 (25)	3.11 (71)	64% (20)	11% (31)	0.89 (24)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UVA Defense	12	51% (87)	48% (118)	-	-	-	-	.26 (124)	3.36 (116)	76% (92)	9% (108)	1.03 (84)
WAKE Offense	12	54% (35)	42% (85)	39	130.4	3.3	13 (108)	.02 (124)	2.97 (97)	63% (122)	15% (132)	0.79 (132)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UVA Offense	12	50% (62)	41% (76)	20.7	33	250.8	7.6	12.1	19 (78)	14 (107)	.29 (67)	1.6 (66)	32% (83)	29% (79)	.21 (105)	6% (79)	1.8 (126)
WAKE Defense	12	48% (54)	42% (74)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.4 (120)	1.7 (113)	33% (53)	29% (46)	.4 (105)	5% (102)	2.3 (127)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UVA Defense	12	48% (48)	43% (90)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.32 (97)	1.6 (54)	28% (127)	30% (62)	.33 (76)	6% (57)	2.1 (85)
WAKE Offense	12	45% (101)	42% (65)	16	26.8	196	7.3	12.3	14 (106)	12 (85)	.19 (98)	1.6 (81)	31% (53)	29% (77)	.24 (96)	9% (131)	1.9 (110)

Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: -2.00 #69
Virginia's Offense Rating: 18.13 #84
Virginia's Defense Rating: 12.62 #96
2024 Talent Rating: 366.00 #54
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Virginia's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Virginia's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.1 #91
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.7 #95
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.3 #86

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 405
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Virginia: -2.00 Wake Forest: -5.53

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Virginia: -5.1 Wake Forest: -5.7

Wake Forest's Power Ratings
Wake Forest's Power Rating: -5.53 #102
Wake Forest's Offense Rating: 16.79 #98
Wake Forest's Defense Rating: 16.26 #115
2024 Talent Rating: 311.00 #70
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #97
Wake Forest's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Wake Forest's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.7 #93
Wake Forest's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #77
Wake Forest's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.8 #103

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 405
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Virginia Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.6
Defense: 19.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.2

Virginia's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Virginia 27
Wake Forest 25

Projected Total Points: 53

Wake Forest Scoring
Offense: 28.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.3
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.3

Wake Forest's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 1 - 6
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/08	Virginia	9	Wake Forest	16	Virginia -7	Wake Forest	48.5	Under
2024	09/07	Wake Forest	30	Virginia	31	Virginia -1.5	Wake Forest	55.5	Over
2021	09/24	Virginia	17	Wake Forest	37	Virginia -3.5	Wake Forest	71.0	Under
2020	10/17	Wake Forest	40	Virginia	23	Wake Forest -2.5	Wake Forest	57.5	Over
2016	11/05	Wake Forest	27	Virginia	20	Wake Forest -2.5	Wake Forest	45.0	Over
2012	10/20	Virginia	10	Wake Forest	16
2008	11/08	Wake Forest	28	Virginia	17
2007	11/03	Virginia	17	Wake Forest	16
2003	09/27	Virginia	27	Wake Forest	24
2002	09/28	Wake Forest	34	Virginia	38
2001	11/03	Virginia	30	Wake Forest	34
2000	09/29	Wake Forest	10	Virginia	27

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Wake Forest	7	5	3 Overs
Virginia	5	0	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	5 - 7	3 - 2	2 - 2	1 - 0
Road Teams	7 - 5	2 - 3	0 - 1	2 - 2

(#69) UVA at (#102) WAKE

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UVA	WAKE
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#69	#102
SP+SP+	#91	#93
Perf GradeGrade	#115	#64
OffenseOff	#109	#67
DefenseDef	#109	#66
Spec TeamsST	#44	#53
TalentTal	#54	#70
Blue ChipsBC%	#82	#97

Virginia Notes(12/17) Signed QB C Morris (N Tex/OU/TCU)
(11/25) Pass D torched by SMU, Rgame awful, QB bad
(11/18) 5 TO's cost any shot @ ND, Pass Off awful
(11/13) QB Col OK, Rgame OK, Def great in Pitt upset
(10/31) QB? Colandrea or Muskett? Col goes downfield
(10/19) Rgame awful vs Clem, QBs good. Hung in a bit
(10/13) Off great, Def OK but gagged vs L'ville
(10/6) Run Def great, Off enough in big W (BC)
(9/23) 384 rush yds, 6.6 ypc in great W @ Coastal
(9/8) QB Colandrea great, entire Off. Good W @ Wake
(9/1) Good W over Richmond, QB Col. good, Rgame good
(8/19) QB Colandrea good find LY, portal WRs decent
Virginia Injury Report

Wake Forest Notes(12/18) Hired HC Dickert (Wazzu)
(12/16) HC Clawson stepping down after 11 years
(11/25) Off abysmal vs Miami. Def all 40+ pts per in Nov
(11/18) Run D torched by NC. 2 QBs meh, Rgame bad
(11/13) Def (pass) torched by Cal, Rgame is awful, QB OK
(10/12) Have no answers other than pray for TOs
(10/6) Def #'s are near worst in CFB. Big W @ NC St
(9/28) Even game w/ Louisiana, Bach good, Rgame good
(9/8) Bach 403 yds but bad L (UVA), Pass D awful.
(8/19) New QB Bachmeier, WR ? w/ leader gone (Neb)
(8/19) 3 OL return off great unit LY, RB mid at best
(8/19) Def avg LY, bad in red zone, DL good, DBs big ?
Wake Forest Injury Report

Virginia on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	UVA Off	WAKE Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#109	#66
SuccessSuc	#84	#49
ExplosiveExp	#96	#82
PPAPPA	#88	#89
PowerPwr	#84	#115
SP+SP+	#95	#103
Pts POPPO	#85	#110
HavocHav	#109	#61

Virginia Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	UVA Off	WAKE Def
Run GameRun	#84	#53
Run SuccessRSuc	#82	#40
Run ExplRExp	#113	#24
PPAExp	#91	#25
Run BlockR Blk	#57	-
OL YdsOLY	#89	#71
Stuff RateStuff	#46	#94
TackleTak	-	#24

Virginia Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	UVA Off	WAKE Def
Pass GamePass	#120	#55
Pass SuccessPSuc	#76	#74
Pass ExplPExl	#66	#113
PPAExp	#67	#120
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#120	#110
F7 HavocF7	#123	#31
DB HavocDB	#79	#102

Wake Forest on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	WAKE Off	UVA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#67	#109
SuccessSuc	#76	#113
ExplosiveExp	#123	#55
PPAPPA	#122	#117
PowerPwr	#98	#96
SP+SP+	#77	#86
Pts POPPO	#124	#103
HavocHav	#133	#96

Wake Forest Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	WAKE Off	UVA Def
Run GameRun	#120	#104
Run SuccessRSuc	#85	#118
Run ExplRExp	#132	#84
PPAExp	#124	#124
Run BlockR Blk	#22	-
OL YdsOLY	#97	#116
Stuff RateStuff	#100	#96
TackleTak	-	#112

Wake Forest Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	WAKE Off	UVA Def
Pass GamePass	#57	#113
Pass SuccessPSuc	#65	#90
Pass ExplPExl	#81	#54
PPAExp	#98	#97
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#37	#72
F7 HavocF7	#132	#108
DB HavocDB	#131	#57

Program Comparison
WAKE 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'24 Profile: Down to Average G5

UVA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'24 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in BB&T Field
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 2
Virginia 1.5 (55.5)
Virginia won at Wake Forest this year (31-30)

Previous Matchups
Wake Forest beat Virginia last year (16-9)
Virginia beat Wake Forest in 2024 (31-30)

UVA's OC Des Kitchings (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Anthony Colandrea	198	320	62%	2125	13	11	6.6
Tony Muskett	45	76	59%	545	3	3	7.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kobe Pace	114	499	3	4.4	43
Xavier Brown	80	488	1	6.1	75
Anthony Colandrea	128	277	2	2.2	35
Noah Vaughn	36	120	0	3.3	13

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Malachi Fields	55	808	5	14.7	45
Tyler Neville (Tr)	37	394	2	10.6	39
Trell Harris (Tr)	15	221	2	14.7	45
Kobe Pace	21	189	0	9.0	52

View Virginia's Full Roster

UVA's DC John Rudzinski (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jonas Sanker	98	9	2	1	4
Kamren Robinson	64	6	5	2	1
Trey McDonald	57	3	1	1	1
Jermarian Jackson	55	1	1	0	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kamren Robinson	64	6	5	2	1
Kameron Butler	43	3	3	8	2
Jonas Sanker	98	9	2	1	4
James Jackson	45	5	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kempton Shine (Tr)	37	2	0	0	7
Jermarian Jackson	55	1	1	0	6
Jonas Sanker	98	9	2	1	4

WAKE's OC Warren Ruggiero (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Hank Bachmeier (Tr)	224	357	63%	2593	16	10	7.3
Michael Kern	24	45	53%	288	1	3	6.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Demond Claiborne	228	1048	11	4.6	60
Tate Carney	82	335	6	4.1	18
Hank Bachmeier (Tr)	96	141	1	1.5	20
Ty Clark III	13	57	0	4.4	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Taylor Morin	64	756	2	11.8	51
Horatio Fields	39	463	4	11.9	42
Deuce Alexander	36	400	2	11.1	38
Donavon Greene	23	380	3	16.5	45

View Wake Forest's Full Roster

WAKE's DC Brad Lambert (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nick Andersen	122	1	0	1	1
Branson Combs (Tr)	83	6	2	2	1
Dylan Hazen	78	6	1	3	0
Davaughn Patterson	74	4	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jasheen Davis	31	11	6	5	0
Kevin Pointer	33	7	4	8	1
Bryce Ganious	26	5	3	7	0
Branson Combs (Tr)	83	6	2	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
C'Darius Kelley	20	0	4
Jamare Glasker	37	3	4
Davaughn Patterson	74	4	3