Michigan State at Boston College - 2024 Matchup Preview

Michigan State Spartans at Boston College Eagles

Saturday, September 21st 2024 (8:00 PM EDT)
Boston College -4.5 (45.5) (-200) Open: -6.0 | 46.0
Boston College 23 - Michigan State: 19

Spartans (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jonathan Smith (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 26 (18 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Light Rain Predicted
BC is playing their 4th straight game
MSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Boston College -8 (SP+ BC -6)
Projected Score: MSU: 20 - BC: 28 (47)
BC Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
MSU Travel: 678 miles

Eagles (7 - 6) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Bill O'Brien (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 28 - 24 (34 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MSU Players
BC Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Michigan State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/30	Michigan State vs Florida Atlantic	-12.0	45.0	W 16 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/7	Michigan State at Maryland	+7.5	44.5	W 27 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Michigan State vs Prairie View A&M	-42.5	53.5	W 40 - 0	U	N
Sat 9/21	Michigan State at Boston College	+4.5	45.5	L 19 - 23	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Michigan State vs Ohio State	+23.5	48.5	L 7 - 38	U	N
Fri 10/4	Michigan State at Oregon	+22.5	53.0	L 10 - 31	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Michigan State vs Iowa	+7.0	39.5	W 32 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Michigan State at Michigan	+3.5	39.0	L 17 - 24	O	N
Sat 11/2	Michigan State vs Indiana	+7.5	53.5	L 10 - 47	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Michigan State at Illinois	+2.0	47.5	L 16 - 38	O	N
Fri 11/22	Michigan State vs Purdue	-14.0	49.0	W 24 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/30	Michigan State vs Rutgers	-1.5	46.5	L 14 - 41	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule

Boston College's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Mon 9/2	Boston College at Florida State	+16.5	50.0	W 28 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Boston College vs Duquesne	-33.5	52.5	W 56 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Boston College at Missouri	+14.5	51.5	L 21 - 27	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Boston College vs Michigan State	-4.5	45.5	W 23 - 19	U	N
Sat 9/28	Boston College vs Western Kentucky	-7.5	48.0	W 21 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/5	Boston College at Virginia	+2.0	52.5	L 14 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/17	Boston College at Virginia Tech	+8.5	47.5	L 21 - 42	O	N
Fri 10/25	Boston College vs Louisville	+7.0	54.0	L 27 - 31	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Boston College vs Syracuse	-5.5	51.5	W 37 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Boston College at SMU	+19.0	54.5	L 28 - 38	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Boston College vs North Carolina	+2.0	50.5	W 41 - 21	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Boston College vs Pittsburgh	-3.5	50.5	W 34 - 23	O	Y
Sat 12/28	Boston College vs Nebraska	+3.0	47.5	L 15 - 20	U	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSU	#105 (.13)	42% (86)	19.3	45% (50)	2.76 (109)	118	38% (107)	218	3.34 (116)	#85 (.19)	42% (69)	26.1	39% (25)	45% (111)	4.06 (98)	63.3	1.6	0.9
BC	#89 (.16)	41% (93)	28.2	41% (96)	2.87 (99)	164	41% (78)	176	4 (58)	#56 (.15)	42% (74)	23.8	40% (40)	44% (104)	3.64 (51)	40	1.2	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSU	#105 (.13)	42% (86)		45% (50)	2.76 (109)	118	38% (107)	218	3.34 (116)	#85 (.19)	42% (69)		39% (25)	45% (111)	4.06 (98)	63.3	1.6	0.9
BC	#89 (.16)	41% (93)		41% (96)	2.87 (99)	164	41% (78)	176	4 (58)	#56 (.15)	42% (74)		40% (40)	44% (104)	3.64 (51)	40	1.2	1.8

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSU Offense	12	19.3	17.8	41.6%	3.34	1.6	19	337	118	218	3.7	50%	50%	45%	38%	18%	.13
BC Defense	13	23.8	20.7	42.2%	3.64	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	45%	55%	40%	44%	16%	.15

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSU Defense	12	26.1	28	41.7%	4.06	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	39%	45%	14%	.19
BC Offense	13	28.2	34.1	40.9%	4	1.2	18	340	164	176	4.3	56%	44%	41%	41%	13%	.16

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Michigan State	12	30:54	18.8	38%	52%	6.7	63.3	1.6	0.9	5.5	1.6	1	26.3
Boston College	13	29:25	17.8	43%	50%	4.2	40	1.2	1.8	4.7	2	3	30.3

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSU Offense	12	50% (74)	45% (50)	32.4	118.4	3.7	11 (116)	.02 (116)	2.76 (109)	74% (66)	12% (112)	0.82 (126)
BC Defense	13	45% (12)	40% (40)	-	-	-	-	.05 (33)	2.84 (43)	82% (120)	9% (96)	0.92 (40)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSU Defense	12	50% (56)	39% (25)	-	-	-	-	.06 (36)	2.8 (37)	67% (29)	10% (64)	1.01 (80)
BC Offense	13	56% (26)	41% (96)	38.2	164.2	4.3	22 (55)	.01 (120)	2.87 (99)	72% (79)	9% (53)	0.86 (120)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSU Offense	12	50% (61)	38% (107)	17.7	29.5	218.1	7.4	12.3	13 (116)	13 (103)	.24 (79)	1.6 (57)	33% (106)	25% (122)	.18 (113)	6% (63)	2 (80)
BC Defense	13	55% (123)	44% (104)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (10)	.23 (67)	1.4 (12)	32% (71)	29% (43)	.2 (26)	7% (36)	1.8 (22)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSU Defense	12	50% (79)	45% (111)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.34 (111)	1.7 (101)	32% (70)	35% (118)	.43 (111)	4% (121)	2.1 (74)
BC Offense	13	44% (108)	41% (78)	13.9	22.2	176.2	7.9	12.7	24 (38)	7 (26)	.34 (29)	1.9 (7)	30% (50)	32% (68)	.34 (68)	4% (12)	2.3 (11)

Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: -2.31 #70
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 16.47 #101
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 10.30 #75
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 15% #31
Michigan State's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Michigan State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.6 #90
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.0 #119
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #49

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: -2.31 Boston College: 4.395

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: -4.6 Boston College: 1.2

Boston College's Power Ratings
Boston College's Power Rating: 4.395 #51
Boston College's Offense Rating: 19.12 #75
Boston College's Defense Rating: 8.62 #58
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Boston College's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
Boston College's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.2 #70
Boston College's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.0 #62
Boston College's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #56

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.8
Defense: 26.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 28

Michigan State's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Boston College 28
Michigan State 20

Total Points: 47

Based on Last 4 Games
Boston College 32
Michigan State 16

Total Points: 48

Based on Entire Season
Boston College 29
Michigan State 21

Total Points: 50

Boston College Scoring
Offense: 28.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.1
Defense: 23.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.7

Boston College's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/06	Michigan State	42	Boston College	40	Michigan State -3.5	Boston College	45.5	Over
2024	09/21	Boston College	23	Michigan State	19	Boston College -4.5	Michigan State	45.5	Under
2007	12/28	Michigan State	21	Boston College	24

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Boston College	2	1	1 Overs
Michigan State	1	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 1	0 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 2	2 - 0	0 - 0	2 - 0

(#70) MSU at (#51) BC

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MSU	BC
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#70	#51
SP+SP+	#90	#70
Perf GradeGrade	#107	#56
OffenseOff	#105	#64
DefenseDef	#104	#33
Spec TeamsST	#122	#114
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#31	#82

Michigan State Notes(11/24) Nearly gagged to Pur, Chiles bad, Rgame meh
(11/18) Even stats with Ill but killed, 2-13 3rd, No Rgame
(11/2) Rgame not good, awful vs IU. OL owned by IU
(10/29) Fr WR Marsh 3rd in CFB in tgts/Fr per game
(10/19) Big W (Iowa). 468 yds, 212 rush (5.3). Bowl?
(9/26) Most penalized P5 team at 92 ypg in wk 5
(9/23) Chiles 3 INT in rough L @ BC. Rgame poor
(9/18) Injuries are piling up at DB
(9/8) Chiles 363 yds @ MD, still TO prone. Run D great
(8/30) Run game awful LY, OL rebuild, UMass 1K RB
(7/30) 15 in 2 deep from Portal, QB Chiles (Oreg St)
(7/30) Smith and OC from Oreg St, DC from Minn
Michigan State Injury Report

Boston College Notes(11/25) Rgame mauled NC, James OK, Def great in W
(11/18) Good fight @ SMU, QB James/Rgame meh, Def OK
(11/14) QB Castellanos entering the portal
(11/13) Rgame 321 yds, 6.7 ypc, att only 13 pass in Cuse W
(11/12) QB Cast. benched, James to start vs SMU
(11/8) No Kicking game, att only 1 FG, missed XPs
(10/17) Run D mauled by VT 368 yds, 9.2 ypc. Rgame bad
(10/6) Off bad, Rgame awful, 3 TO's in L @ UVA
(9/28) OG by WKU, Off awful w/ QB James. 3 TOs to W
(9/27) QB Castellanos out vs WKU (und inj)
(9/23) QB Cast. much improved. 10 TDs, 2 Ints so far
(9/23) Outgained by MSU but 4 TOs in big W
Boston College Injury Report

Michigan State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MSU Off	BC Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#105	#33
SuccessSuc	#86	#74
ExplosiveExp	#118	#30
PPAPPA	#105	#56
PowerPwr	#101	#58
SP+SP+	#119	#56
Pts POPPO	#116	#51
HavocHav	#98	#72

Michigan State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MSU Off	BC Def
Run GameRun	#31	#30
Run SuccessRSuc	#50	#40
Run ExplRExp	#126	#40
PPAExp	#116	#33
Run BlockR Blk	#112	-
OL YdsOLY	#109	#43
Stuff RateStuff	#113	#67
TackleTak	-	#39

Michigan State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MSU Off	BC Def
Pass GamePass	#107	#61
Pass SuccessPSuc	#107	#104
Pass ExplPExl	#57	#12
PPAExp	#79	#67
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#126	#62
F7 HavocF7	#112	#96
DB HavocDB	#63	#36

Boston College on Offense

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	BC Off	MSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#64	#104
SuccessSuc	#93	#69
ExplosiveExp	#42	#110
PPAPPA	#89	#85
PowerPwr	#75	#75
SP+SP+	#62	#49
Pts POPPO	#58	#98
HavocHav	#24	#93

Boston College Run Game

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	BC Off	MSU Def
Run GameRun	#104	#29
Run SuccessRSuc	#96	#25
Run ExplRExp	#120	#80
PPAExp	#120	#36
Run BlockR Blk	#31	-
OL YdsOLY	#99	#37
Stuff RateStuff	#64	#33
TackleTak	-	#31

Boston College Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	BC Off	MSU Def
Pass GamePass	#49	#126
Pass SuccessPSuc	#78	#111
Pass ExplPExl	#7	#101
PPAExp	#29	#111
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#35	#127
F7 HavocF7	#53	#64
DB HavocDB	#12	#121

Program Comparison
BC 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'24 Profile: Up to Top G5

MSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'24 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Alumni Stadium
Conditions: Light Rain
Temp: 57° - Wind: 12 mph
Rain: 0.043

Rematch from Week 4
Boston College -4.5 (45.5)
Boston College won vs Michigan State this year (23-19)

Previous Matchups
Boston College beat Michigan State last year (23-19)

MSU's OC Brian Lindgren (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Aidan Chiles (Tr)	192	324	59%	2415	13	12	7.5
Tommy Schuster (Tr)	20	29	69%	202	0	0	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kay'Ron Adams	133	649	2	4.9	63
Nathan Carter	116	499	5	4.3	60
Aidan Chiles (Tr)	96	234	3	2.4	26
Nick Marsh	4	23	0	5.8	11

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nick Marsh	41	649	3	15.8	77
Montorie Foster	46	588	3	12.8	40
Jack Velling (Tr)	36	411	1	11.4	34
Aziah Johnson	16	276	2	17.3	52

View Michigan State's Full Roster

MSU's DC Joe Rossi (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Turner (Tr)	66	11	3	4	1
Cal Haladay	58	5	1	0	1
Nikai Martinez (Tr)	51	3	0	1	2
Angelo Grose	50	4	1	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Khris Bogle	37	8	4	6	0
Jordan Turner (Tr)	66	11	3	4	1
Anthony Jones (Tr)	25	4	2	5	0
Ken Talley	6	2	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Charles Brantley	27	2	0	0	7
Edward Woods	49	4	1	2	3
Jordan Hall	24	1	0	1	2

BC's OC Will Lawing (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Grayson James (Tr)	106	166	64%	1202	6	2	7.2
Thomas Castellanos	99	161	62%	1366	18	5	8.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kye Robichaux	175	744	10	4.3	41
Treshaun Ward (Tr)	77	406	2	5.3	36
Jordan Mcdonald (Tr)	53	361	3	6.8	41
Turbo Richard	55	278	2	5.1	30

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Lewis Bond	67	689	3	10.3	49
Reed Harris	17	486	4	28.6	72
Kamari Morales (Tr)	28	325	6	11.6	54
Jeremiah Franklin	27	311	3	11.5	34

View Boston College's Full Roster

BC's DC Tim Lewis (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
KP Price	81	2	1	1	5
Donovan Ezeiruaku	76	19	14	14	1
Daveon Crouch	74	7	2	3	3
Carter Davis	43	1	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Donovan Ezeiruaku	76	19	14	14	1
Quintayvious Hutchins	29	6	4	8	0
Owen Stoudmire	29	4	3	2	0
Daveon Crouch	74	7	2	3	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
KP Price	81	2	1	1	5
Ryan Turner (Tr)	13	2	1	0	4
Amari Jackson	18	0	0	0	4