South Florida at Florida Atlantic - 2024 Matchup Preview

South Florida Bulls at Florida Atlantic Owls

Friday, November 1st 2024 (7:30 PM EDT)
South Florida -1.5 (48.0) (-120) Open: -2.5
South Florida 44 - Florida Atlantic: 21 (American Athletic)

Bulls (7 - 6) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Alex Golesh (7 - 6)
Avg Score : 32 - 30 (34 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 13.9 MPH
USF coming off BYE
FAU coming off BYE
Our Line: South Florida -11 (SP+ USF -10.5)
Projected Score: USF: 33 - FAU: 22 (54)
USF Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
USF Travel: 184 miles

Owls (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Chad Lunsford (Int) (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 26 - 30 (29 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
USF Players
FAU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

South Florida's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	South Florida vs Bethune-Cookman	-22.5
Sat 9/7	South Florida at Alabama	+33.5	65.5	L 16 - 42	U	Y
Sat 9/14	South Florida at Southern Miss	-13.0	58.5	W 49 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/21	South Florida vs Miami	+17.0	64.5	L 15 - 50	O	N
Sat 9/28	South Florida at Tulane	+4.0	60.5	L 10 - 45	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	South Florida vs Memphis	+10.0	61.0	L 3 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/19	South Florida vs UAB	-14.0	55.5	W 35 - 25	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/1	South Florida at Florida Atlantic	-1.5	48.0	W 44 - 21	O	Y
Sat 11/9	South Florida vs Navy	+4.5	59.5	L 7 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/16	South Florida at Charlotte	+1.5	53.5	W 59 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/23	South Florida vs Tulsa	-17.5	60.0	W 63 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/30	South Florida at Rice	-5.5	53.5	L 28 - 35	O	N
Tue 12/24	South Florida vs San José State	-1.5	66.5	W 41 - 39	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for South Florida's Schedule

Florida Atlantic's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/30	Florida Atlantic at Michigan State	+12.0	45.0	L 10 - 16	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Florida Atlantic vs Army	-1.5	42.5	L 7 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/14	Florida Atlantic vs Florida International	-3.5	44.5	W 38 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Florida Atlantic at UConn	+1.0	46.0	L 14 - 48	O	N
Sat 9/28	Florida Atlantic vs Wagner	-34.5	52.5	W 41 - 10	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Florida Atlantic vs North Texas	+5.5	58.5	L 37 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Florida Atlantic at UTSA	+4.0	52.5	L 24 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/1	Florida Atlantic vs South Florida	+1.5	48.0	L 21 - 44	O	N
Thu 11/7	Florida Atlantic at East Carolina	+5.5	58.5	L 14 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/16	Florida Atlantic at Temple	+2.0	50.0	L 15 - 18	U	N
Sat 11/23	Florida Atlantic vs Charlotte	+3.0	49.5	L 27 - 39	O	N
Sat 11/30	Florida Atlantic at Tulsa	-2.5	57.5	W 63 - 16	O	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USF	#83 (.17)	38% (118)	32.2	39% (112)	3.06 (60)	181	38% (106)	227	3.88 (74)	#66 (.16)	39% (36)	29.8	38% (17)	40% (69)	4 (88)	70.9	1.4	2.1
FAU	#80 (.17)	39% (108)	25.9	40% (107)	3.15 (48)	189	39% (99)	209	3.19 (122)	#90 (.21)	41% (54)	30.3	43% (72)	38% (39)	3.72 (62)	51.6	1.5	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USF	#83 (.17)	38% (118)		39% (112)	3.06 (60)	181	38% (106)	227	3.88 (74)	#66 (.16)	39% (36)		38% (17)	40% (69)	4 (88)	70.9	1.4	2.1
FAU	#80 (.17)	39% (108)		40% (107)	3.15 (48)	189	39% (99)	209	3.19 (122)	#90 (.21)	41% (54)		43% (72)	38% (39)	3.72 (62)	51.6	1.5	1.6

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USF Offense	13	32.2	34.3	38.3%	3.88	1.4	20	408	181	227	4.8	48%	52%	39%	38%	15%	.17
FAU Defense	12	30.3	29.7	40.6%	3.72	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	43%	38%	16%	.21

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USF Defense	13	29.8	31.8	39.2%	4	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	38%	40%	20%	.16
FAU Offense	12	25.9	28.5	39.2%	3.19	1.5	20	398	189	209	5	54%	45%	40%	39%	17%	.17

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
South Florida	13	25:10	20.4	39%	56%	8.1	70.9	1.4	2.1	8.1	2.5	2	30.7
Florida Atlantic	12	30:22	19.5	35%	47%	6.6	51.6	1.5	1.6	5.7	1.4	1	28.5

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USF Offense	13	48% (82)	39% (112)	37.8	180.8	4.8	34 (10)	.2 (32)	3.06 (60)	66% (114)	10% (62)	1.26 (3)
FAU Defense	12	52% (86)	43% (72)	-	-	-	-	.16 (87)	3.09 (86)	83% (124)	10% (65)	1.05 (97)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USF Defense	13	49% (46)	38% (17)	-	-	-	-	.04 (26)	2.63 (18)	70% (48)	13% (11)	1.13 (121)
FAU Offense	12	54% (41)	40% (107)	38	189.2	5	24 (45)	.2 (34)	3.15 (48)	64% (118)	12% (113)	1.28 (2)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USF Offense	13	52% (51)	38% (106)	20.2	34.1	227.5	6.7	11.3	16 (87)	10 (63)	.13 (113)	1.5 (109)	34% (114)	25% (121)	.22 (105)	6% (68)	2.2 (21)
FAU Defense	12	47% (45)	38% (39)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (52)	.28 (94)	1.8 (129)	34% (33)	32% (88)	.35 (91)	6% (52)	2.2 (108)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USF Defense	13	51% (91)	40% (69)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (31)	.28 (89)	1.6 (78)	34% (32)	32% (87)	.3 (64)	7% (46)	1.9 (32)
FAU Offense	12	45% (98)	39% (99)	17.1	29.2	208.6	7.2	12.2	14 (108)	11 (72)	.19 (96)	1.6 (51)	33% (105)	32% (65)	.39 (46)	5% (37)	2.1 (43)

South Florida's Power Ratings
South Florida's Power Rating: 0.21 #62
South Florida's Offense Rating: 19.25 #72
South Florida's Defense Rating: 7.53 #48
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #65
South Florida's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
South Florida's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.3 #79
South Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #51
South Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.4 #108

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
South Florida: 0.21 Florida Atlantic: -11.865

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Florida: -2.3 Florida Atlantic: -12.7

Florida Atlantic's Power Ratings
Florida Atlantic's Power Rating: -11.865 #114
Florida Atlantic's Offense Rating: 14.76 #109
Florida Atlantic's Defense Rating: 11.20 #82
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #74
Florida Atlantic's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Florida Atlantic's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -12.7 #113
Florida Atlantic's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.8 #109
Florida Atlantic's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.1 #104

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

South Florida Scoring
Offense: 32.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.3
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.8

South Florida's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
South Florida 33
Florida Atlantic 22

Total Points: 54

Based on Last 4 Games
Florida Atlantic 37
South Florida 21

Total Points: 58

Based on Entire Season
South Florida 32
Florida Atlantic 29

Total Points: 61

Florida Atlantic Scoring
Offense: 25.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.5
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 29.7

Florida Atlantic's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/18	South Florida	48	Florida Atlantic	13	South Florida -20.5	South Florida	72.5	Under
2024	11/01	Florida Atlantic	21	South Florida	44	South Florida -1.5	South Florida	48.0	Over
2023	10/14	South Florida	14	Florida Atlantic	56	South Florida -3	Florida Atlantic	61.0	Over
2013	09/14	South Florida	10	Florida Atlantic	28	South Florida -10.5	Florida Atlantic	0
2010	10/02	South Florida	31	Florida Atlantic	3
2007	10/06	Florida Atlantic	23	South Florida	35
2002	08/29	South Florida	51	Florida Atlantic	10

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Florida Atlantic	2	2	2 Overs
South Florida	5	2	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 4	1 - 3	1 - 2	0 - 1
Road Teams	4 - 3	3 - 1	1 - 0	2 - 1

(#62) USF at (#114) FAU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USF	FAU
Power RatePwr	#62	#114
SP+SP+	#79	#113
Perf GradeGrade	#100	#79
OffenseOff	#120	#84
DefenseDef	#61	#63
Spec TeamsST	#92	#80
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#65	#74

South Florida Notes(11/18) Rgame mailed Char. 425 yds, 8.9 ypc. Def avg
(11/9) Golesh is a f'ing idiot. In game decisions -6
(11/4) Rgame mauled FAU. QB Archie good, D avg, flags
(11/4) Golesh big timed FAU Herman, crootin beef
(10/20) Outplayed by UAB, lucky W. New QB Archie statue
(10/14) QB Brown may have broken leg, out since Tulane
(10/13) Rgame is abysmal, QB not much better in L (Mem)
(10/11) Hiding injuries but team may be very beat up
(9/28) Dogwalked by Tulane. Rgame 26 yds, 1.0 ypc!
(9/22) Good 1st H fight vs Mia. Just wore down again
(9/14) 369 yds rushing, 7.2 ypc in smashing S Miss
(9/8) Hung in w/ Bama. 200 yds rushing. QB Brown ??
South Florida Injury Report

Florida Atlantic Notes(12/23) Signed QB Caden Veltkamp (WKU), huge get
(12/5) Hired new HC Tex Tech OC Zach Kittley
(11/18) HC Herman fired, ST's Lunsford taking over
(11/18) Off is lost. Herman fired after Temple L. DC back?
(11/18) DC Bellantoni back after Herman fired?
(11/10) Fired DC Bellantoni and OL Warinner
(11/8) Killed by ECU, Def mauled, QB Weisman good find?
(11/8) QB Fancher inj (ECU). BU Weisman looks good
(11/4) Def mauled by USF, 300+ rush, 7.4 ypc, Off OK, flags
(10/20) Def bad vs UTSA, 480+ yds. Run heavy but 3 ypc?
(10/12) Fancher/Rgame good, Def torched shootout L N.T.
(8/30) QB Francher bad passer but good runner, slippery
Florida Atlantic Injury Report

South Florida on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	USF Off	FAU Def
Perf GradePerf	#120	#63
SuccessSuc	#118	#54
ExplosiveExp	#10	#117
PPAPPA	#83	#90
PowerPwr	#72	#82
SP+SP+	#51	#104
Pts POPPO	#74	#62
HavocHav	#57	#61

South Florida Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	USF Off	FAU Def
Run GameRun	#67	#116
Run SuccessRSuc	#112	#72
Run ExplRExp	#3	#97
PPAExp	#32	#87
Run BlockR Blk	#127	-
OL YdsOLY	#60	#86
Stuff RateStuff	#45	#79
TackleTak	-	#110

South Florida Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	USF Off	FAU Def
Pass GamePass	#114	#22
Pass SuccessPSuc	#106	#39
Pass ExplPExl	#109	#129
PPAExp	#113	#94
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#97	#38
F7 HavocF7	#62	#65
DB HavocDB	#68	#52

Florida Atlantic on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	FAU Off	USF Def
Perf GradePerf	#84	#61
SuccessSuc	#108	#36
ExplosiveExp	#5	#115
PPAPPA	#80	#66
PowerPwr	#109	#48
SP+SP+	#109	#108
Pts POPPO	#122	#88
HavocHav	#89	#15

Florida Atlantic Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	FAU Off	USF Def
Run GameRun	#68	#49
Run SuccessRSuc	#107	#17
Run ExplRExp	#2	#121
PPAExp	#34	#26
Run BlockR Blk	#34	-
OL YdsOLY	#48	#18
Stuff RateStuff	#66	#10
TackleTak	-	#84

Florida Atlantic Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	FAU Off	USF Def
Pass GamePass	#122	#79
Pass SuccessPSuc	#99	#69
Pass ExplPExl	#51	#78
PPAExp	#96	#89
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#73	#32
F7 HavocF7	#113	#11
DB HavocDB	#37	#46

Program Comparison
FAU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

USF 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in FAU Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 79° - Wind: 14 mph

Rematch from Week 10
South Florida 1.5 (48.0)
South Florida won at Florida Atlantic this year (44-21)

Previous Matchups
South Florida beat Florida Atlantic last year (44-21)
Florida Atlantic beat South Florida in 2023 (56-14)

USF's OC Joel Gordon (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Bryce Archie	172	290	59%	1914	9	10	6.6
Byrum Brown	78	132	59%	836	2	0	6.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kelley Joiner Jr.	121	799	12	6.6	54
Nay'Quan Wright	109	510	8	4.7	64
Taron Keith	78	419	8	5.4	42
Byrum Brown	68	269	3	4.0	42

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Sean Atkins	80	799	2	10.0	52
Keshaun Singleton	27	428	3	15.9	67
Mike Brown-Stephens	28	350	4	12.5	32
Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen (Tr)	21	254	0	12.1	51

View South Florida's Full Roster

USF's DC Todd Orlando (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mac Harris	82	12	4	6	2
Tavin Ward	61	2	0	0	3
Jhalyn Shuler	60	7	4	4	1
Jamie Pettway	56	7	2	2	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mac Harris	82	12	4	6	2
Jhalyn Shuler	60	7	4	4	1
Decarius Hawthorne (Tr)	39	10	3	3	2
Ricardo Watson	36	8	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Brent Austin (Tr)	48	0	0	10
De'Shawn Rucker (Tr)	41	2	0	7
Ben Knox	22	1	1	6

FAU's OC Charlie Frye (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Cam Fancher (Tr)	126	212	59%	1528	6	6	7.2
Kasen Weisman (Tr)	39	73	53%	416	2	3	5.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
CJ Campbell	165	860	11	5.2	58
Zuberi Mobley	91	471	4	5.2	72
Cam Fancher (Tr)	99	365	3	3.7	76
Xavier Terrell	14	261	3	18.6	93

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Omari Hayes	39	590	3	15.1	71
CJ Campbell	40	466	3	11.7	78
Jabari Smith	17	296	3	17.4	76
Marlyn Johnson (Tr)	17	169	0	9.9	22

View Florida Atlantic's Full Roster

FAU's DC Roc Bellantoni (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
C.J. Heard	74	1	0	0	1
Jackson Ambush	68	6	2	0	2
Eddie Williams	51	7	0	2	1
Phillip Dunnam (Tr)	48	3	0	1	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jacob Merrifield	15	4	3	2	0
Marlon Bradley	14	5	2	1	0
Chisom Ifeanyi (Tr)	21	4	2	4	0
Jackson Ambush	68	6	2	0	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Kahzir Brown (Tr)	42	2	1	7
Daedae Hill	27	1	0	5
Phillip Dunnam (Tr)	48	3	1	4