South Florida at Southern Miss - 2024 Matchup Preview

South Florida Bulls at Southern Miss Golden Eagles

Saturday, September 14th 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
South Florida -13 (58.5) (-450) Open: -12.0 | 57.5
South Florida 49 - Southern Miss: 24

Bulls (7 - 6) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Alex Golesh (7 - 6)
Avg Score : 41 - 23 (35 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

USF 2nd straight Road Game
USM 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: South Florida -24 (SP+ USF -23.5)
Projected Score: USF: 42 - USM: 18 (60)
USF Win prob: 80% | Cover: 46%
USF Travel: 471 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Golden Eagles (1 - 11) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Will Hall (13 - 24)
Avg Score : 29 - 27 (31 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 1 - 11 (#132)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
USF Players
USM Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

South Florida's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	South Florida vs Bethune-Cookman	-22.5
Sat 9/7	South Florida at Alabama	+33.5	65.5	L 16 - 42	U	Y
Sat 9/14	South Florida at Southern Miss	-13.0	58.5	W 49 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/21	South Florida vs Miami	+17.0	64.5	L 15 - 50	O	N
Sat 9/28	South Florida at Tulane	+4.0	60.5	L 10 - 45	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	South Florida vs Memphis	+10.0	61.0	L 3 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/19	South Florida vs UAB	-14.0	55.5	W 35 - 25	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/1	South Florida at Florida Atlantic	-1.5	48.0	W 44 - 21	O	Y
Sat 11/9	South Florida vs Navy	+4.5	59.5	L 7 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/16	South Florida at Charlotte	+1.5	53.5	W 59 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/23	South Florida vs Tulsa	-17.5	60.0	W 63 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/30	South Florida at Rice	-5.5	53.5	L 28 - 35	O	N
Tue 12/24	South Florida vs San José State	-1.5	66.5	W 41 - 39	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for South Florida's Schedule

Southern Miss's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Southern Miss at Kentucky	+25.5	50.5	L 0 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/7	Southern Miss vs SE Louisiana	-17.5	53.5	W 35 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Southern Miss vs South Florida	+13.0	58.5	L 24 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/21	Southern Miss at Jacksonville State	+6.0	59.5	L 7 - 44	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Southern Miss vs Louisiana	+17.5	57.5	L 13 - 23	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Southern Miss at UL Monroe	+4.5	41.0	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/19	Southern Miss vs Arkansas State	+7.0	57.0	L 28 - 44	O	N
Sat 10/26	Southern Miss at James Madison	+24.0	54.0	L 15 - 32	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Southern Miss vs Marshall	+13.5	53.5	L 3 - 37	U	N
Sat 11/16	Southern Miss at Texas State	+27.5	56.5	L 3 - 58	O	N
Sat 11/23	Southern Miss vs South Alabama	+24.0	54.0	L 14 - 35	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Southern Miss at Troy	+17.5	48.5	L 20 - 52	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USF	#79 (.17)	39% (106)	40.5	39% (112)	2.99 (92)	183	40% (82)	269	3.63 (89)	#97 (.23)	40% (41)	23.4	40% (44)	40% (47)	3.7 (60)	65.5	1.6	1.9
USM	#109 (.12)	37% (121)	28.8	40% (106)	2.89 (107)	163	34% (126)	191	3.07 (121)	#105 (.24)	42% (69)	27.4	41% (49)	45% (109)	4.15 (103)	48.2	1.3	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USF		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
USM		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USF Offense	13	40.5	35	39.2%	3.63	1.6	23	452	183	269	4.1	52%	47%	39%	40%	16%	.17
USM Defense	12	27.4	27.3	42.2%	4.15	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	41%	45%	16%	.24

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USF Defense	13	23.4	32.3	39.8%	3.7	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	45%	54%	40%	40%	19%	.23
USM Offense	12	28.8	30.9	36.7%	3.07	1.3	20	354	163	191	4	53%	46%	40%	34%	20%	.12

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
South Florida	13	28:35	23.1	38%	43%	7.5	65.5	1.6	1.9	7.5	1.8	1	29.9
Southern Miss	12	33:15	20.3	38%	44%	6.3	48.2	1.3	1.4	4.5	2.1	2	28

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USF Offense	13	52% (49)	39% (112)	44.6	182.8	4.1	23 (46)	.15 (68)	2.99 (92)	81% (12)	11% (92)	1.16 (8)
USM Defense	12	53% (106)	41% (49)	-	-	-	-	.22 (109)	3.21 (94)	67% (30)	10% (76)	1.24 (129)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USF Defense	13	45% (16)	40% (44)	-	-	-	-	.11 (44)	2.73 (16)	69% (44)	12% (15)	1.19 (125)
USM Offense	12	53% (41)	40% (106)	40.5	163.4	4	16 (89)	.13 (80)	2.89 (107)	67% (109)	12% (109)	1.11 (19)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USF Offense	13	47% (87)	40% (82)	22.1	34.4	268.8	7.8	12.2	27 (25)	11 (68)	.26 (73)	1.6 (64)	36% (121)	27% (95)	.31 (76)	5% (39)	2.3 (15)
USM Defense	12	46% (27)	45% (109)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.32 (101)	1.7 (101)	31% (93)	33% (103)	.4 (106)	6% (63)	2.3 (123)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USF Defense	13	54% (117)	40% (47)	-	-	-	-	-	-	14 (21)	.37 (112)	1.8 (128)	35% (33)	29% (56)	.37 (96)	7% (46)	2.3 (126)
USM Offense	12	46% (92)	34% (126)	15.7	30.4	190.7	6.3	12.2	15 (96)	8 (30)	.14 (114)	1.7 (26)	36% (126)	28% (87)	.34 (67)	8% (117)	2.1 (49)

South Florida's Power Ratings
South Florida's Power Rating: 0.21 #62
South Florida's Offense Rating: 19.25 #72
South Florida's Defense Rating: 7.53 #48
2024 Talent Rating: 244.00 #100
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #65
South Florida's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
South Florida's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.3 #79
South Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #51
South Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.4 #108

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 238.57
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
South Florida: 0.21 Southern Miss: -24.845

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Florida: -2.3 Southern Miss: -25.6

Southern Miss's Power Ratings
Southern Miss's Power Rating: -24.845 #133
Southern Miss's Offense Rating: 7.03 #134
Southern Miss's Defense Rating: 18.37 #125
2024 Talent Rating: 222.00 #110
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Southern Miss's 2024 Expected Record: 1.0 - 11.0
Southern Miss's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -25.6 #133
Southern Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 14.4 #130
Southern Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 39.4 #128

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 235.21
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

South Florida Scoring
Offense: 40.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 35
Defense: 23.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.3

South Florida's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
South Florida 42
Southern Miss 18

Projected Total Points: 60

Southern Miss Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.9
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.3

Southern Miss's 2024 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/14	Southern Miss	24	South Florida	49	South Florida -13	South Florida	58.5	Over
2004	10/02	South Florida	20	Southern Miss	27
2003	10/25	Southern Miss	27	South Florida	6
2002	10/12	South Florida	16	Southern Miss	13
2000	10/06	Southern Miss	41	South Florida	7

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Southern Miss	3	0	1 Overs
South Florida	2	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1
Road Teams	2 - 3	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0

(#62) USF at (#133) USM

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USF	USM
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#62	#133
SP+SP+	#79	#133
Perf GradeGrade	#100	#134
OffenseOff	#120	#134
DefenseDef	#61	#123
Spec TeamsST	#92	#88
TalentTal	#100	#110
Blue ChipsBC%	#65	#102

South Florida Notes(11/18) Rgame mailed Char. 425 yds, 8.9 ypc. Def avg
(11/9) Golesh is a f'ing idiot. In game decisions -6
(11/4) Rgame mauled FAU. QB Archie good, D avg, flags
(11/4) Golesh big timed FAU Herman, crootin beef
(10/20) Outplayed by UAB, lucky W. New QB Archie statue
(10/14) QB Brown may have broken leg, out since Tulane
(10/13) Rgame is abysmal, QB not much better in L (Mem)
(10/11) Hiding injuries but team may be very beat up
(9/28) Dogwalked by Tulane. Rgame 26 yds, 1.0 ypc!
(9/22) Good 1st H fight vs Mia. Just wore down again
(9/14) 369 yds rushing, 7.2 ypc in smashing S Miss
(9/8) Hung in w/ Bama. 200 yds rushing. QB Brown ??
South Florida Injury Report

Southern Miss Notes(12/10) Hired HC C Huff (Marshall HC last 6 years)
(11/25) Off awful vs S. Al, worst team in SBC
(11/18) Has to be worst Off in CFB. 3 pts in 2 straight L's
(10/22) Def stop rate 42% (#126) into week 9
(10/20) HC Will Hall fired, GM Reed Stringer Int?
(10/12) QB Crawford abysmal, Def torched in L (UL Mon)
(10/4) Def awful (B 10)/Off getting worse. Staff big trouble
(9/14) Allowed 369 yds rushing to S Fla. Rgame awful
(9/11) Worst Rgame in CFB to date. 36% suc, 39% stuffed
(9/1) Miserable L @ UK. Lucky game called. No Off
(7/30) QB Rodemaker (FSU) leads lots of SEC transfers
(7/30) New OC Chip Long (ND), DC Bignell (ND Analyst)
Southern Miss Injury Report

South Florida on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	USF Off	USM Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#120	#123
SuccessSuc	#106	#69
ExplosiveExp	#28	#125
PPAPPA	#79	#105
PowerPwr	#72	#125
SP+SP+	#51	#128
Pts POPPO	#89	#103
HavocHav	#77	#73

South Florida Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	USF Off	USM Def
Run GameRun	#67	#125
Run SuccessRSuc	#112	#49
Run ExplRExp	#8	#129
PPAExp	#68	#109
Run BlockR Blk	#127	-
OL YdsOLY	#92	#94
Stuff RateStuff	#83	#82
TackleTak	-	#135

South Florida Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	USF Off	USM Def
Pass GamePass	#114	#125
Pass SuccessPSuc	#82	#109
Pass ExplPExl	#64	#101
PPAExp	#73	#101
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#97	#62
F7 HavocF7	#92	#76
DB HavocDB	#39	#63

Southern Miss on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	USM Off	USF Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#134	#61
SuccessSuc	#121	#41
ExplosiveExp	#24	#131
PPAPPA	#109	#97
PowerPwr	#134	#48
SP+SP+	#130	#108
Pts POPPO	#121	#60
HavocHav	#117	#15

Southern Miss Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	USM Off	USF Def
Run GameRun	#98	#49
Run SuccessRSuc	#106	#44
Run ExplRExp	#19	#125
PPAExp	#80	#44
Run BlockR Blk	#134	-
OL YdsOLY	#107	#16
Stuff RateStuff	#109	#17
TackleTak	-	#84

Southern Miss Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	USM Off	USF Def
Pass GamePass	#127	#79
Pass SuccessPSuc	#126	#47
Pass ExplPExl	#26	#128
PPAExp	#114	#112
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#105	#32
F7 HavocF7	#109	#15
DB HavocDB	#117	#46

Program Comparison
USM 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Up to Poor G5

USF 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'24 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in M. M. Roberts Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 3
South Florida 13.0 (58.5)
South Florida won at Southern Miss this year (49-24)

Previous Matchups
South Florida beat Southern Miss in 2024 (49-24)

USF's OC Joel Gordon (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Bryce Archie	172	290	59%	1914	9	10	6.6
Byrum Brown	78	132	59%	836	2	0	6.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kelley Joiner Jr.	121	799	12	6.6	54
Nay'Quan Wright	109	510	8	4.7	64
Taron Keith	78	419	8	5.4	42
Byrum Brown	68	269	3	4.0	42

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Sean Atkins	80	799	2	10.0	52
Keshaun Singleton	27	428	3	15.9	67
Mike Brown-Stephens	28	350	4	12.5	32
Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen (Tr)	21	254	0	12.1	51

View South Florida's Full Roster

USF's DC Todd Orlando (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mac Harris	82	12	4	6	2
Tavin Ward	61	2	0	0	3
Jhalyn Shuler	60	7	4	4	1
Jamie Pettway	56	7	2	2	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mac Harris	82	12	4	6	2
Jhalyn Shuler	60	7	4	4	1
Decarius Hawthorne (Tr)	39	10	3	3	2
Ricardo Watson	36	8	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Brent Austin (Tr)	48	0	0	10
De'Shawn Rucker (Tr)	41	2	0	7
Ben Knox	22	1	1	6

USM's OC Chip Long (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tate Rodemaker (Tr)	98	165	59%	985	7	7	6.0
Ethan Crawford	50	120	42%	849	0	7	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rodrigues Clark	124	604	1	4.9	54
Kenyon Clay	84	387	7	4.6	70
Ethan Crawford	97	209	3	2.2	21
Jalen Washington	26	118	1	4.5	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Larry Simmons (Tr)	27	421	1	15.6	75
Tiaquelin Mims	33	393	1	11.9	56
Kenyon Clay	21	225	1	10.7	37
Kyirin Heath (Tr)	15	210	2	14.0	34

View Southern Miss's Full Roster

USM's DC Clay Bignell (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tre Pinkney (Tr)	74	5	1	2	0
Jay Jones	46	3	0	3	3
Chris Jones	46	3	1	0	1
Ja'Len Sims	45	5	1	1	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brodarius Lewis	39	8	4	0	0
Ryan Johnson (Tr)	23	4	3	9	0
Jalil Clemons	34	7	3	3	0
Jameer Lewis	24	5	2	5	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Will James (Tr)	35	2	0	0	7
Ques McNeal	29	2	0	0	4
Ja'Len Sims	45	5	1	1	3