South Florida at Alabama - 2024 Matchup Preview

South Florida Bulls at Alabama Crimson Tide(#21)

Saturday, September 7th 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
Alabama -33.5 (65.5) (-10000) Open: -31.0 | 63.5
Alabama 42 - South Florida: 16

Bulls (7 - 6) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Alex Golesh (7 - 6)
Avg Score : 32 - 30 (34 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ALA 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Alabama -25.5 (SP+ ALA -27)
Projected Score: USF: 19 - ALA: 44 (63)
ALA Win prob: 100% | Cover: 46%
USF Travel: 470 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Crimson Tide (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Kalen DeBoer (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 34 - 17 (41 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
USF Players
ALA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

South Florida's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	South Florida vs Bethune-Cookman	-22.5
Sat 9/7	South Florida at Alabama	+33.5	65.5	L 16 - 42	U	Y
Sat 9/14	South Florida at Southern Miss	-13.0	58.5	W 49 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/21	South Florida vs Miami	+17.0	64.5	L 15 - 50	O	N
Sat 9/28	South Florida at Tulane	+4.0	60.5	L 10 - 45	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	South Florida vs Memphis	+10.0	61.0	L 3 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/19	South Florida vs UAB	-14.0	55.5	W 35 - 25	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/1	South Florida at Florida Atlantic	-1.5	48.0	W 44 - 21	O	Y
Sat 11/9	South Florida vs Navy	+4.5	59.5	L 7 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/16	South Florida at Charlotte	+1.5	53.5	W 59 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/23	South Florida vs Tulsa	-17.5	60.0	W 63 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/30	South Florida at Rice	-5.5	53.5	L 28 - 35	O	N
Tue 12/24	South Florida vs San José State	-1.5	66.5	W 41 - 39	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for South Florida's Schedule

Alabama's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Alabama vs Western Kentucky	-31.0	60.0	W 63 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Alabama vs South Florida	-33.5	65.5	W 42 - 16	U	N
Sat 9/14	Alabama at Wisconsin	-15.5	51.0	W 42 - 10	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Alabama vs Georgia	+2.0	50.0	W 41 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/5	Alabama at Vanderbilt	-23.5	53.5	L 35 - 40	O	N
Sat 10/12	Alabama vs South Carolina	-21.0	50.0	W 27 - 25	O	N
Sat 10/19	Alabama at Tennessee	-3.5	57.5	L 17 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/26	Alabama vs Missouri	-16.0	51.5	W 34 - 0	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Alabama at LSU	-2.5	57.5	W 42 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/16	Alabama vs Mercer	-42.0	58.5	W 52 - 7	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Alabama at Oklahoma	-14.0	47.0	L 3 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/30	Alabama vs Auburn	-10.5	50.5	W 28 - 14	U	Y
Tue 12/31	Alabama vs Michigan	-16.5	45.5	L 13 - 19	U	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USF	#83 (.17)	38% (118)	32.2	39% (112)	3.06 (60)	181	38% (106)	227	3.88 (74)	#66 (.16)	39% (36)	29.8	38% (17)	40% (69)	4 (88)	70.9	1.4	2.1
ALA	#44 (.23)	45% (34)	33.8	45% (52)	2.75 (112)	169	45% (31)	222	4.71 (8)	#8 (.05)	37% (12)	17.4	38% (15)	37% (19)	2.85 (5)	66.3	1.4	2.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USF	#83 (.17)	38% (118)		39% (112)	3.06 (60)	181	38% (106)	227	3.88 (74)	#66 (.16)	39% (36)		38% (17)	40% (69)	4 (88)	70.9	1.4	2.1
ALA	#44 (.23)	45% (34)		45% (52)	2.75 (112)	169	45% (31)	222	4.71 (8)	#8 (.05)	37% (12)		38% (15)	37% (19)	2.85 (5)	66.3	1.4	2.1

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USF Offense	13	32.2	34.3	38.3%	3.88	1.4	20	408	181	227	4.8	48%	52%	39%	38%	15%	.17
ALA Defense	13	17.4	13.7	37.2%	2.85	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	38%	37%	18%	.05

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USF Defense	13	29.8	31.8	39.2%	4	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	38%	40%	20%	.16
ALA Offense	13	33.8	41	45.2%	4.71	1.4	20	390	169	222	4.8	53%	47%	45%	45%	16%	.23

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
South Florida	13	25:10	20.4	39%	56%	8.1	70.9	1.4	2.1	8.1	2.5	2	30.7
Alabama	13	27:39	19.7	49%	62%	7.1	66.3	1.4	2.1	4.8	1.8	0	29.8

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USF Offense	13	48% (82)	39% (112)	37.8	180.8	4.8	34 (10)	.2 (32)	3.06 (60)	66% (114)	10% (62)	1.26 (3)
ALA Defense	13	52% (87)	38% (15)	-	-	-	-	-.02 (8)	2.81 (38)	76% (86)	10% (61)	0.87 (19)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USF Defense	13	49% (46)	38% (17)	-	-	-	-	.04 (26)	2.63 (18)	70% (48)	13% (11)	1.13 (121)
ALA Offense	13	53% (49)	45% (52)	35.2	168.8	4.8	41 (5)	.21 (28)	2.75 (112)	76% (44)	11% (102)	1.12 (12)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USF Offense	13	52% (51)	38% (106)	20.2	34.1	227.5	6.7	11.3	16 (87)	10 (63)	.13 (113)	1.5 (109)	34% (114)	25% (121)	.22 (105)	6% (68)	2.2 (21)
ALA Defense	13	48% (49)	37% (19)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (10)	.12 (22)	1.6 (86)	35% (21)	29% (38)	.25 (44)	8% (15)	2 (56)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USF Defense	13	51% (91)	40% (69)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (31)	.28 (89)	1.6 (78)	34% (32)	32% (87)	.3 (64)	7% (46)	1.9 (32)
ALA Offense	13	47% (84)	45% (31)	16.2	24.7	221.6	9	13.7	16 (87)	10 (63)	.27 (59)	1.5 (78)	28% (21)	31% (77)	.3 (83)	4% (20)	2.3 (4)

South Florida's Power Ratings
South Florida's Power Rating: 0.21 #62
South Florida's Offense Rating: 19.25 #72
South Florida's Defense Rating: 7.53 #48
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #65
South Florida's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
South Florida's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.3 #79
South Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #51
South Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.4 #108

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
South Florida: 0.21 Alabama: 24.435

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Florida: -2.3 Alabama: 25.0

Alabama's Power Ratings
Alabama's Power Rating: 24.435 #9
Alabama's Offense Rating: 23.39 #33
Alabama's Defense Rating: 4.21 #20
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 82 #1
Alabama's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Alabama's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 25.0 #4
Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.9 #6
Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.6 #8

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

South Florida Scoring
Offense: 32.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.3
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.8

South Florida's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Alabama 44
South Florida 19

Total Points: 63

Based on Last 4 Games
Alabama 43
South Florida 19

Total Points: 62

Based on Entire Season
Alabama 34
South Florida 25

Total Points: 59

Alabama Scoring
Offense: 33.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 41
Defense: 17.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 13.7

Alabama's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/07	Alabama	42	South Florida	16	Alabama -33.5	South Florida	65.5	Under
2023	09/16	South Florida	3	Alabama	17	Alabama -34	South Florida	61.0	Under
2003	08/30	Alabama	40	South Florida	17

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Alabama	3	0	0 Overs
South Florida	0	2	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 2	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0

(#62) USF at (#9) ALA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USF	ALA
Power RatePwr	#62	#9
SP+SP+	#79	#4
Perf GradeGrade	#100	#12
OffenseOff	#120	#24
DefenseDef	#61	#9
Spec TeamsST	#92	#58
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#65	#1

South Florida Notes(11/18) Rgame mailed Char. 425 yds, 8.9 ypc. Def avg
(11/9) Golesh is a f'ing idiot. In game decisions -6
(11/4) Rgame mauled FAU. QB Archie good, D avg, flags
(11/4) Golesh big timed FAU Herman, crootin beef
(10/20) Outplayed by UAB, lucky W. New QB Archie statue
(10/14) QB Brown may have broken leg, out since Tulane
(10/13) Rgame is abysmal, QB not much better in L (Mem)
(10/11) Hiding injuries but team may be very beat up
(9/28) Dogwalked by Tulane. Rgame 26 yds, 1.0 ypc!
(9/22) Good 1st H fight vs Mia. Just wore down again
(9/14) 369 yds rushing, 7.2 ypc in smashing S Miss
(9/8) Hung in w/ Bama. 200 yds rushing. QB Brown ??
South Florida Injury Report

Alabama Injury Report

South Florida on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	USF Off	ALA Def
Perf GradePerf	#120	#9
SuccessSuc	#118	#12
ExplosiveExp	#10	#47
PPAPPA	#83	#8
PowerPwr	#72	#20
SP+SP+	#51	#8
Pts POPPO	#74	#5
HavocHav	#57	#41

South Florida Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	USF Off	ALA Def
Run GameRun	#67	#8
Run SuccessRSuc	#112	#15
Run ExplRExp	#3	#19
PPAExp	#32	#8
Run BlockR Blk	#127	-
OL YdsOLY	#60	#38
Stuff RateStuff	#45	#53
TackleTak	-	#5

South Florida Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	USF Off	ALA Def
Pass GamePass	#114	#10
Pass SuccessPSuc	#106	#19
Pass ExplPExl	#109	#86
PPAExp	#113	#22
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#97	#49
F7 HavocF7	#62	#61
DB HavocDB	#68	#15

Alabama on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	ALA Off	USF Def
Perf GradePerf	#24	#61
SuccessSuc	#34	#36
ExplosiveExp	#34	#115
PPAPPA	#44	#66
PowerPwr	#33	#48
SP+SP+	#6	#108
Pts POPPO	#8	#88
HavocHav	#63	#15

Alabama Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	ALA Off	USF Def
Run GameRun	#14	#49
Run SuccessRSuc	#52	#17
Run ExplRExp	#12	#121
PPAExp	#28	#26
Run BlockR Blk	#74	-
OL YdsOLY	#112	#18
Stuff RateStuff	#121	#10
TackleTak	-	#84

Alabama Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	ALA Off	USF Def
Pass GamePass	#21	#79
Pass SuccessPSuc	#31	#69
Pass ExplPExl	#78	#78
PPAExp	#59	#89
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#66	#32
F7 HavocF7	#102	#11
DB HavocDB	#20	#46

Program Comparison
ALA 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFB Elites
'25 Profile: Remains CFB Elites

USF 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bryant Denny Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 79° - Wind: 9 mph

Rematch from Week 2
Alabama -33.5 (65.5)
Alabama won vs South Florida this year (42-16)

Previous Matchups
Alabama beat South Florida last year (42-16)
Alabama beat South Florida in 2023 (17-3)

USF's OC Joel Gordon (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Bryce Archie	172	290	59%	1914	9	10	6.6
Byrum Brown	78	132	59%	836	2	0	6.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kelley Joiner Jr.	121	799	12	6.6	54
Nay'Quan Wright	109	510	8	4.7	64
Taron Keith	78	419	8	5.4	42
Byrum Brown	68	269	3	4.0	42

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Sean Atkins	80	799	2	10.0	52
Keshaun Singleton	27	428	3	15.9	67
Mike Brown-Stephens	28	350	4	12.5	32
Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen (Tr)	21	254	0	12.1	51

View South Florida's Full Roster

USF's DC Todd Orlando (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mac Harris	82	12	4	6	2
Tavin Ward	61	2	0	0	3
Jhalyn Shuler	60	7	4	4	1
Jamie Pettway	56	7	2	2	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mac Harris	82	12	4	6	2
Jhalyn Shuler	60	7	4	4	1
Decarius Hawthorne (Tr)	39	10	3	3	2
Ricardo Watson	36	8	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Brent Austin (Tr)	48	0	0	10
De'Shawn Rucker (Tr)	41	2	0	7
Ben Knox	22	1	1	6

ALA's OC Nick Sheridan (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jalen Milroe	205	319	64%	2844	16	11	8.9
Ty Simpson	14	25	56%	167	0	0	6.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jalen Milroe	168	726	20	4.3	72
Jamarion Miller	145	668	7	4.6	56
Justice Haynes	79	448	7	5.7	85
Richard Young	27	146	2	5.4	62

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ryan Williams	48	865	8	18.0	84
Germie Bernard (Tr)	50	794	2	15.9	47
C.J. Dippre	21	256	0	12.2	46
Josh Cuevas (Tr)	16	218	1	13.6	43

View Alabama's Full Roster

ALA's DC Kane Wommack (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jihaad Campbell	119	12	5	3	2
Deontae Lawson	76	6	2	0	4
Malachi Moore	70	3	1	3	8
Justin Jefferson	61	7	2	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jihaad Campbell	119	12	5	3	2
Quandarrius Robinson	23	7	4	5	0
Tim Keenan III	40	8	3	2	1
Tim Smith	35	4	2	5	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Malachi Moore	70	3	1	3	8
Domani Jackson (Tr)	51	2	0	1	7
DeVonta Smith	30	1	0	1	5