UAB at South Florida - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 19th 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
South Florida -14 (55.5) (-550) Open: -16.0
South Florida 35 - UAB: 25 (American Athletic)

Blazers (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Trent Dilfer (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 26 - 34 (19 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UAB 2nd straight Road Game
USF 2nd straight Home Game
UAB is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: South Florida -13.5 (SP+ USF -9)
Projected Score: UAB: 22 - USF: 36 (58)
USF Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
UAB Travel: 460 miles, 1 hrs behind

Bulls (7 - 6) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Alex Golesh (7 - 6)
Avg Score : 32 - 30 (34 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UAB Players
USF Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

UAB's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	UAB vs Alcorn State	-29.5	55.5	W 41 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/7	UAB at UL Monroe	-10.5	55.5	L 6 - 32	U	N
Sat 9/14	UAB at Arkansas	+23.5	60.5	L 27 - 37	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	UAB vs Navy	+4.5	56.5	L 18 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/5	UAB vs Tulane	+19.5	52.0	L 20 - 71	O	N
Sat 10/12	UAB at Army	+27.0	55.5	L 10 - 44	U	N
Sat 10/19	UAB at South Florida	+14.0	55.5	L 25 - 35	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	UAB vs Tulsa	-2.5	57.5	W 59 - 21	O	Y
Sat 11/9	UAB vs UConn	+7.5	54.0	L 23 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/16	UAB at Memphis	+16.0	62.0	L 18 - 53	O	N
Sat 11/23	UAB vs Rice	+7.0	52.0	W 40 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/30	UAB at Charlotte	+1.5	59.5	L 27 - 29	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UAB's Schedule

South Florida's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	South Florida vs Bethune-Cookman	-22.5
Sat 9/7	South Florida at Alabama	+33.5	65.5	L 16 - 42	U	Y
Sat 9/14	South Florida at Southern Miss	-13.0	58.5	W 49 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/21	South Florida vs Miami	+17.0	64.5	L 15 - 50	O	N
Sat 9/28	South Florida at Tulane	+4.0	60.5	L 10 - 45	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	South Florida vs Memphis	+10.0	61.0	L 3 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/19	South Florida vs UAB	-14.0	55.5	W 35 - 25	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/1	South Florida at Florida Atlantic	-1.5	48.0	W 44 - 21	O	Y
Sat 11/9	South Florida vs Navy	+4.5	59.5	L 7 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/16	South Florida at Charlotte	+1.5	53.5	W 59 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/23	South Florida vs Tulsa	-17.5	60.0	W 63 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/30	South Florida at Rice	-5.5	53.5	L 28 - 35	O	N
Tue 12/24	South Florida vs San José State	-1.5	66.5	W 41 - 39	O	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UAB	#85 (.16)	45% (42)	26.2	47% (32)	3.19 (42)	131	44% (48)	262	3.43 (109)	#101 (.23)	45% (104)	34.3	52% (132)	35% (12)	4.24 (110)	73.8	2.2	1.1
USF	#83 (.17)	38% (118)	32.2	39% (112)	3.06 (60)	181	38% (106)	227	3.88 (74)	#66 (.16)	39% (36)	29.8	38% (17)	40% (69)	4 (88)	70.9	1.4	2.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UAB	#85 (.16)	45% (42)		47% (32)	3.19 (42)	131	44% (48)	262	3.43 (109)	#101 (.23)	45% (104)		52% (132)	35% (12)	4.24 (110)	73.8	2.2	1.1
USF	#83 (.17)	38% (118)		39% (112)	3.06 (60)	181	38% (106)	227	3.88 (74)	#66 (.16)	39% (36)		38% (17)	40% (69)	4 (88)	70.9	1.4	2.1

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UAB Offense	12	26.2	18.8	44.7%	3.43	2.2	22	393	131	262	4	45%	55%	47%	44%	18%	.16
USF Defense	13	29.8	27.2	39.2%	4	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	38%	40%	20%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UAB Defense	12	34.3	38.3	44.9%	4.24	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	58%	42%	52%	35%	13%	.23
USF Offense	13	32.2	33.6	38.3%	3.88	1.4	20	408	181	227	4.8	48%	52%	39%	38%	15%	.17

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
UAB	12	29:26	21.6	38%	46%	8.2	73.8	2.2	1.1	4	1.5	3	27.1
South Florida	13	25:10	20.4	39%	56%	8.1	70.9	1.4	2.1	8.1	2.5	2	30.7

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UAB Offense	12	45% (108)	47% (32)	32.6	131	4	9 (125)	.1 (85)	3.19 (42)	80% (21)	12% (111)	0.73 (132)
USF Defense	13	49% (46)	38% (17)	-	-	-	-	.04 (26)	2.63 (18)	70% (48)	13% (11)	1.13 (121)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UAB Defense	12	58% (131)	52% (132)	-	-	-	-	.26 (127)	3.64 (134)	88% (132)	7% (132)	0.87 (17)
USF Offense	13	48% (82)	39% (112)	37.8	180.8	4.8	34 (10)	.2 (32)	3.06 (60)	66% (114)	10% (62)	1.26 (3)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UAB Offense	12	55% (28)	44% (48)	23.7	37.1	261.6	7.1	11.1	24 (38)	16 (124)	.25 (71)	1.5 (94)	31% (59)	31% (73)	.4 (40)	6% (79)	2.1 (37)
USF Defense	13	51% (91)	40% (69)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (31)	.28 (89)	1.6 (78)	34% (32)	32% (87)	.3 (64)	7% (46)	1.9 (32)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UAB Defense	12	42% (4)	35% (12)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (93)	.18 (43)	1.8 (121)	29% (113)	32% (92)	.32 (74)	6% (62)	1.8 (10)
USF Offense	13	52% (51)	38% (106)	20.2	34.1	227.5	6.7	11.3	16 (87)	10 (63)	.13 (113)	1.5 (109)	34% (114)	25% (121)	.22 (105)	6% (68)	2.2 (21)

UAB's Power Ratings
UAB's Power Rating: -12.62 #107
UAB's Offense Rating: 21.87 #51
UAB's Defense Rating: 16.86 #120
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
UAB's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
UAB's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.3 #108
UAB's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.9 #75
UAB's Defense SP+ Rating: 38.0 #126

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
UAB: -12.62 South Florida: 1.455

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UAB: -11.3 South Florida: -2.3

South Florida's Power Ratings
South Florida's Power Rating: 1.455 #62
South Florida's Offense Rating: 19.25 #72
South Florida's Defense Rating: 7.53 #48
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #65
South Florida's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
South Florida's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.3 #79
South Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #51
South Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.4 #108

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

UAB Scoring
Offense: 26.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.8
Defense: 34.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 38.3

UAB's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
South Florida 36
UAB 22

Total Points: 58

Based on Last 4 Games
South Florida 31
UAB 31

Total Points: 61

Based on Entire Season
South Florida 35
UAB 26

Total Points: 61

South Florida Scoring
Offense: 32.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.6
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.2

South Florida's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/22	UAB	18	South Florida	48	South Florida -21.5	South Florida	68.5	Under
2024	10/19	South Florida	35	UAB	25	South Florida -14	UAB	55.5	Over
2023	10/07	UAB	56	South Florida	35	South Florida -3.5	UAB	68.5	Over
2004	11/03	UAB	20	South Florida	45
2003	11/22	South Florida	19	UAB	22

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
South Florida	3	1	2 Overs
UAB	2	2	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 3	1 - 2	0 - 1	1 - 1
Road Teams	3 - 2	2 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 0

(#107) UAB at (#62) USF

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UAB	USF
Power RatePwr	#107	#62
SP+SP+	#108	#79
Perf GradeGrade	#124	#100
OffenseOff	#109	#120
DefenseDef	#126	#61
Spec TeamsST	#105	#92
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#65

UAB Notes(11/25) Upset Rice, Def 4 TOs, Off was OK but enough
(11/18) Tulsa was dead cat bounce, L's to UConn/Memphis
(11/3) Killed Tulsa, 400+ pass yds. Still 10 flags
(10/22) Def stop rate 39% (#129) into week 9
(10/20) Fought w/ S Fla but gagged. Kitna 384 yds
(10/13) Def all 400+ yds rush (Army). Dilfer needs 2 go
(10/7) Dilfer is done. Concerning rumors, team quit
(10/6) Team has quit. Tulane 70 pts, 300+ yds rushing
(9/29) Mauled by Navy, though stats even. Dilfer a clown
(9/14) Lost to #130 ULM by 26 as a 10+ pt fav. Woof
(8/13) OC Mortensen Dink & Dunk Off worked LY
(8/13) 4/5 OL starters back, RB losses big, now ?
UAB Injury Report

South Florida Notes(11/18) Rgame mailed Char. 425 yds, 8.9 ypc. Def avg
(11/9) Golesh is a f'ing idiot. In game decisions -6
(11/4) Rgame mauled FAU. QB Archie good, D avg, flags
(11/4) Golesh big timed FAU Herman, crootin beef
(10/20) Outplayed by UAB, lucky W. New QB Archie statue
(10/14) QB Brown may have broken leg, out since Tulane
(10/13) Rgame is abysmal, QB not much better in L (Mem)
(10/11) Hiding injuries but team may be very beat up
(9/28) Dogwalked by Tulane. Rgame 26 yds, 1.0 ypc!
(9/22) Good 1st H fight vs Mia. Just wore down again
(9/14) 369 yds rushing, 7.2 ypc in smashing S Miss
(9/8) Hung in w/ Bama. 200 yds rushing. QB Brown ??
South Florida Injury Report

UAB on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	UAB Off	USF Def
Perf GradePerf	#109	#61
SuccessSuc	#42	#36
ExplosiveExp	#126	#115
PPAPPA	#85	#66
PowerPwr	#51	#48
SP+SP+	#75	#108
Pts POPPO	#109	#88
HavocHav	#106	#15

UAB Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	UAB Off	USF Def
Run GameRun	#113	#49
Run SuccessRSuc	#32	#17
Run ExplRExp	#132	#121
PPAExp	#85	#26
Run BlockR Blk	#73	-
OL YdsOLY	#42	#18
Stuff RateStuff	#26	#10
TackleTak	-	#84

UAB Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	UAB Off	USF Def
Pass GamePass	#94	#79
Pass SuccessPSuc	#48	#69
Pass ExplPExl	#94	#78
PPAExp	#71	#89
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#45	#32
F7 HavocF7	#111	#11
DB HavocDB	#79	#46

South Florida on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	USF Off	UAB Def
Perf GradePerf	#120	#126
SuccessSuc	#118	#104
ExplosiveExp	#10	#21
PPAPPA	#83	#101
PowerPwr	#72	#120
SP+SP+	#51	#126
Pts POPPO	#74	#110
HavocHav	#57	#118

South Florida Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	USF Off	UAB Def
Run GameRun	#67	#136
Run SuccessRSuc	#112	#132
Run ExplRExp	#3	#17
PPAExp	#32	#127
Run BlockR Blk	#127	-
OL YdsOLY	#60	#134
Stuff RateStuff	#45	#130
TackleTak	-	#91

South Florida Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	USF Off	UAB Def
Pass GamePass	#114	#63
Pass SuccessPSuc	#106	#12
Pass ExplPExl	#109	#121
PPAExp	#113	#43
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#97	#58
F7 HavocF7	#62	#132
DB HavocDB	#68	#62

Program Comparison
USF 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

UAB 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Raymond James Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 82° - Wind: 8 mph

Rematch from Week 8
South Florida -14.0 (55.5)
South Florida won vs UAB this year (35-25)

Previous Matchups
South Florida beat UAB last year (35-25)
UAB beat South Florida in 2023 (56-35)

UAB's OC Alex Mortensen (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jalen Kitna	196	316	62%	2209	17	11	7.0
Jacob Zeno	82	118	70%	819	6	5	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Lee Beebe	166	885	7	5.3	61
Lee Witherspoon	35	166	0	4.7	15
Isaiah Jacobs	41	162	0	4.0	12
Jacob Zeno	37	97	0	2.6	26

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Amare Thomas	62	670	8	10.8	73
Kameran Shanks	62	656	6	10.6	67
Corri Milliner	24	416	3	17.3	45
Malachi Holt-Bennett	16	241	1	15.1	71

View UAB's Full Roster

UAB's DC Sione Ta'ufo'ou (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Michael Moore	92	3	0	1	2
Everett Roussaw Jr.	75	8	3	4	1
Tyjon Jones (Tr)	59	0	0	1	4
Sirad Bryant (Tr)	59	1	0	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Desmond Little	40	10	6	7	3
Everett Roussaw Jr.	75	8	3	4	1
James Smyre	9	2	2	0	0
Kendall Johnson	18	4	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Colby Dempsey	22	2	0	11
Adrian Maddox (Tr)	44	2	1	7
Kelvin Hill	42	0	0	5

USF's OC Joel Gordon (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Bryce Archie	172	290	59%	1914	9	10	6.6
Byrum Brown	78	132	59%	836	2	0	6.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kelley Joiner Jr.	121	799	12	6.6	54
Nay'Quan Wright	109	510	8	4.7	64
Taron Keith	78	419	8	5.4	42
Byrum Brown	68	269	3	4.0	42

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Sean Atkins	80	799	2	10.0	52
Keshaun Singleton	27	428	3	15.9	67
Mike Brown-Stephens	28	350	4	12.5	32
Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen (Tr)	21	254	0	12.1	51

View South Florida's Full Roster

USF's DC Todd Orlando (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mac Harris	82	12	4	6	2
Tavin Ward	61	2	0	0	3
Jhalyn Shuler	60	7	4	4	1
Jamie Pettway	56	7	2	2	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mac Harris	82	12	4	6	2
Jhalyn Shuler	60	7	4	4	1
Decarius Hawthorne (Tr)	39	10	3	3	2
Ricardo Watson	36	8	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Brent Austin (Tr)	48	0	0	10
De'Shawn Rucker (Tr)	41	2	0	7
Ben Knox	22	1	1	6