South Florida at Rice - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 30th 2024 (2:00 PM EST)
South Florida -5.5 (53.5) (-215) Open: -4.5 | 53.5
Rice 35 - South Florida: 28 (American Athletic)

Bulls (7 - 6) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Alex Golesh (7 - 6)
Avg Score : 32 - 30 (34 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

USF is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: South Florida -6.5 (SP+ USF -9)
Projected Score: USF: 31 - RICE: 24 (55)
USF Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
USF Travel: 790 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Owls (4 - 8) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Pete Alamar (Int) (22 - 46)
Avg Score : 22 - 25 (32 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
USF Players
RICE Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

South Florida's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	South Florida vs Bethune-Cookman	-22.5
Sat 9/7	South Florida at Alabama	+33.5	65.5	L 16 - 42	U	Y
Sat 9/14	South Florida at Southern Miss	-13.0	58.5	W 49 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/21	South Florida vs Miami	+17.0	64.5	L 15 - 50	O	N
Sat 9/28	South Florida at Tulane	+4.0	60.5	L 10 - 45	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	South Florida vs Memphis	+10.0	61.0	L 3 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/19	South Florida vs UAB	-14.0	55.5	W 35 - 25	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/1	South Florida at Florida Atlantic	-1.5	48.0	W 44 - 21	O	Y
Sat 11/9	South Florida vs Navy	+4.5	59.5	L 7 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/16	South Florida at Charlotte	+1.5	53.5	W 59 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/23	South Florida vs Tulsa	-17.5	60.0	W 63 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/30	South Florida at Rice	-5.5	53.5	L 28 - 35	O	N
Tue 12/24	South Florida vs San José State	-1.5	66.5	W 41 - 39	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for South Florida's Schedule

Rice's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Rice vs Sam Houston	-9.5	49.0	L 14 - 34	U	N
Sat 9/7	Rice vs Texas Southern	-30.0	52.5	W 69 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Rice at Houston	+3.5	43.5	L 7 - 33	U	N
Sat 9/21	Rice at Army	+7.0	44.0	L 14 - 37	O	N
Sat 9/28	Rice vs Charlotte	-4.0	48.0	L 20 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Rice vs UTSA	+3.5	51.0	W 29 - 27	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Rice at Tulane	+21.5	53.5	L 10 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Rice at UConn	+6.5	47.0	L 10 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/2	Rice vs Navy	+12.5	49.0	W 24 - 10	U	Y
Fri 11/8	Rice at Memphis	+7.5	50.5	L 20 - 27	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Rice at UAB	-7.0	52.0	L 14 - 40	O	N
Sat 11/30	Rice vs South Florida	+5.5	53.5	W 35 - 28	O	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USF	#83 (.17)	38% (118)	32.2	39% (112)	3.06 (60)	181	38% (106)	227	3.88 (74)	#66 (.16)	39% (36)	29.8	38% (17)	40% (69)	4 (88)	70.9	1.4	2.1
RICE	#126 (.05)	35% (127)	22.2	36% (127)	2.7 (118)	115	35% (121)	239	3.27 (119)	#60 (.16)	37% (11)	25.4	40% (37)	34% (4)	3.72 (62)	57.4	1.8	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USF	#83 (.17)	38% (118)		39% (112)	3.06 (60)	181	38% (106)	227	3.88 (74)	#66 (.16)	39% (36)		38% (17)	40% (69)	4 (88)	70.9	1.4	2.1
RICE	#126 (.05)	35% (127)		36% (127)	2.7 (118)	115	35% (121)	239	3.27 (119)	#60 (.16)	37% (11)		40% (37)	34% (4)	3.72 (62)	57.4	1.8	1

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USF Offense	13	32.2	34.3	38.3%	3.88	1.4	20	408	181	227	4.8	48%	52%	39%	38%	15%	.17
RICE Defense	12	25.4	21.2	37%	3.72	1	-	-	-	-	-	55%	45%	40%	34%	17%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USF Defense	13	29.8	31.8	39.2%	4	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	38%	40%	20%	.16
RICE Offense	12	22.2	31.8	35.5%	3.27	1.8	18	354	115	239	4.6	37%	62%	36%	35%	20%	.05

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
South Florida	13	25:10	20.4	39%	56%	8.1	70.9	1.4	2.1	8.1	2.5	2	30.7
Rice	12	28:40	18.3	35%	35%	7.1	57.4	1.8	1	6.3	2.7	2	32.6

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USF Offense	13	48% (82)	39% (112)	37.8	180.8	4.8	34 (10)	.2 (32)	3.06 (60)	66% (114)	10% (62)	1.26 (3)
RICE Defense	12	55% (112)	40% (37)	-	-	-	-	.16 (85)	3.06 (80)	76% (83)	11% (45)	1.07 (103)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USF Defense	13	49% (46)	38% (17)	-	-	-	-	.04 (26)	2.63 (18)	70% (48)	13% (11)	1.13 (121)
RICE Offense	12	37% (132)	36% (127)	24.8	114.5	4.6	14 (98)	-.03 (126)	2.7 (118)	86% (3)	10% (63)	1 (55)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USF Offense	13	52% (51)	38% (106)	20.2	34.1	227.5	6.7	11.3	16 (87)	10 (63)	.13 (113)	1.5 (109)	34% (114)	25% (121)	.22 (105)	6% (68)	2.2 (21)
RICE Defense	12	45% (24)	34% (4)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (93)	.16 (33)	1.7 (109)	34% (30)	24% (4)	.19 (23)	6% (70)	2.1 (81)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USF Defense	13	51% (91)	40% (69)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (31)	.28 (89)	1.6 (78)	34% (32)	32% (87)	.3 (64)	7% (46)	1.9 (32)
RICE Offense	12	62% (4)	35% (121)	24.3	39.8	239	6	9.8	17 (79)	13 (103)	.11 (121)	1.5 (97)	38% (129)	25% (119)	.17 (119)	10% (133)	1.9 (104)

South Florida's Power Ratings
South Florida's Power Rating: 0.21 #62
South Florida's Offense Rating: 19.25 #72
South Florida's Defense Rating: 7.53 #48
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #65
South Florida's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
South Florida's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.3 #79
South Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #51
South Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.4 #108

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
South Florida: 0.21 Rice: -7.57

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Florida: -2.3 Rice: -11.4

Rice's Power Ratings
Rice's Power Rating: -7.57 #95
Rice's Offense Rating: 11.53 #123
Rice's Defense Rating: 3.01 #12
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Rice's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Rice's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.4 #109
Rice's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #110
Rice's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.4 #94

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

South Florida Scoring
Offense: 32.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.3
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.8

South Florida's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
South Florida 31
Rice 24

Total Points: 55

Based on Last 4 Games
South Florida 32
Rice 22

Total Points: 54

Based on Entire Season
Rice 29
South Florida 28

Total Points: 57

Rice Scoring
Offense: 22.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.8
Defense: 25.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.2

Rice's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/29	South Florida	52	Rice	3	South Florida -28.5	South Florida	57.5	Under
2024	11/30	Rice	35	South Florida	28	South Florida -5.5	Rice	53.5	Over
2023	09/23	South Florida	42	Rice	29	Rice -2.5	South Florida	56.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Rice	1	1	2 Overs
South Florida	2	2	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 0	3 - 0	1 - 0	2 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 3	0 - 3	0 - 2	0 - 1

(#62) USF at (#95) RICE

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USF	RICE
Power RatePwr	#62	#95
SP+SP+	#79	#109
Perf GradeGrade	#100	#103
OffenseOff	#120	#117
DefenseDef	#61	#43
Spec TeamsST	#92	#105
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#65	#102

South Florida Notes(11/18) Rgame mailed Char. 425 yds, 8.9 ypc. Def avg
(11/9) Golesh is a f'ing idiot. In game decisions -6
(11/4) Rgame mauled FAU. QB Archie good, D avg, flags
(11/4) Golesh big timed FAU Herman, crootin beef
(10/20) Outplayed by UAB, lucky W. New QB Archie statue
(10/14) QB Brown may have broken leg, out since Tulane
(10/13) Rgame is abysmal, QB not much better in L (Mem)
(10/11) Hiding injuries but team may be very beat up
(9/28) Dogwalked by Tulane. Rgame 26 yds, 1.0 ypc!
(9/22) Good 1st H fight vs Mia. Just wore down again
(9/14) 369 yds rushing, 7.2 ypc in smashing S Miss
(9/8) Hung in w/ Bama. 200 yds rushing. QB Brown ??
South Florida Injury Report

Rice Notes(11/26) Hired Scott Abell (Davidson) 47-28 in 7 yrs
(11/26) New HC Abell runs shotgun triple option
(11/25) Bad team awful on road, L to UAB? 4 TOs, Bad D
(11/3) Beat Navy, Run Def great, Off enough in W
(10/28) QB Warner DNP vs UConn, Devillier awful
(10/27) Bloomgren fired, AHC/ST Alamar interim
(10/20) Even w/ Tulane, Warner 3 Int, 5 TOs killed em
(10/12) QB Warner lit UTSA, Rgame awful, Def meh
(10/8) Strange L (Char), OG'd+ 150yds, 0 TO's, still lost
(9/23) Killed by Army, can't run, can't defend. Bad team
(9/17) Off Succ (#132), Expl (#123). Def top 10 Succ
(9/1) Way off on Rice, killed by S Hou, lines abysmal
Rice Injury Report

South Florida on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	USF Off	RICE Def
Perf GradePerf	#120	#43
SuccessSuc	#118	#11
ExplosiveExp	#10	#99
PPAPPA	#83	#60
PowerPwr	#72	#12
SP+SP+	#51	#94
Pts POPPO	#74	#62
HavocHav	#57	#55

South Florida Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	USF Off	RICE Def
Run GameRun	#67	#100
Run SuccessRSuc	#112	#37
Run ExplRExp	#3	#103
PPAExp	#32	#85
Run BlockR Blk	#127	-
OL YdsOLY	#60	#80
Stuff RateStuff	#45	#110
TackleTak	-	#32

South Florida Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	USF Off	RICE Def
Pass GamePass	#114	#14
Pass SuccessPSuc	#106	#4
Pass ExplPExl	#109	#109
PPAExp	#113	#33
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#97	#47
F7 HavocF7	#62	#45
DB HavocDB	#68	#70

Rice on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat	RICE Off	USF Def
Perf GradePerf	#117	#61
SuccessSuc	#127	#36
ExplosiveExp	#36	#115
PPAPPA	#126	#66
PowerPwr	#123	#48
SP+SP+	#110	#108
Pts POPPO	#119	#88
HavocHav	#123	#15

Rice Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat	RICE Off	USF Def
Run GameRun	#111	#49
Run SuccessRSuc	#127	#17
Run ExplRExp	#55	#121
PPAExp	#126	#26
Run BlockR Blk	#115	-
OL YdsOLY	#118	#18
Stuff RateStuff	#81	#10
TackleTak	-	#84

Rice Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat	RICE Off	USF Def
Pass GamePass	#99	#79
Pass SuccessPSuc	#121	#69
Pass ExplPExl	#97	#78
PPAExp	#121	#89
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#94	#32
F7 HavocF7	#63	#11
DB HavocDB	#133	#46

Program Comparison
RICE 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

USF 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Rice Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 62°

Rematch from Week 14
South Florida 5.5 (53.5)
Rice won vs South Florida this year (35-28)

Previous Matchups
Rice beat South Florida last year (35-28)
South Florida beat Rice in 2023 (42-29)

USF's OC Joel Gordon (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Bryce Archie	172	290	59%	1914	9	10	6.6
Byrum Brown	78	132	59%	836	2	0	6.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kelley Joiner Jr.	121	799	12	6.6	54
Nay'Quan Wright	109	510	8	4.7	64
Taron Keith	78	419	8	5.4	42
Byrum Brown	68	269	3	4.0	42

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Sean Atkins	80	799	2	10.0	52
Keshaun Singleton	27	428	3	15.9	67
Mike Brown-Stephens	28	350	4	12.5	32
Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen (Tr)	21	254	0	12.1	51

View South Florida's Full Roster

USF's DC Todd Orlando (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mac Harris	82	12	4	6	2
Tavin Ward	61	2	0	0	3
Jhalyn Shuler	60	7	4	4	1
Jamie Pettway	56	7	2	2	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mac Harris	82	12	4	6	2
Jhalyn Shuler	60	7	4	4	1
Decarius Hawthorne (Tr)	39	10	3	3	2
Ricardo Watson	36	8	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Brent Austin (Tr)	48	0	0	10
De'Shawn Rucker (Tr)	41	2	0	7
Ben Knox	22	1	1	6

RICE's OC Marques Tuiasosopo (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
E.J. Warner (Tr)	271	438	62%	2710	17	13	6.2
Drew Devillier	20	38	53%	137	0	0	3.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dean Connors	159	780	9	4.9	71
Quinton Jackson	48	275	1	5.7	45
Taji Atkins	24	158	2	6.6	33
Christian Francisco	19	78	0	4.1	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Matt Sykes	65	795	5	12.2	37
Dean Connors	61	472	2	7.7	69
Kobie Campbell	32	372	1	11.6	33
Braylen Walker	22	264	1	12.0	50

View Rice's Full Roster

RICE's DC Brian Smith (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ty Anthony Morris	49	8	5	0	0
Sean Fresch	47	1	0	0	8
Gabe Taylor	45	7	3	0	6
Andrew Awe	44	4	1	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ty Anthony Morris	49	8	5	0	0
Josh Pearcy	35	6	4	4	0
Michael Daley (Tr)	14	6	3	1	0
Gabe Taylor	45	7	3	0	6

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Max Ahoia	34	1	0	8
Sean Fresch	47	1	0	8
Gabe Taylor	45	7	3	6