Auburn at Kentucky - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 26th 2024 (7:45 PM EDT)
Kentucky -2.0 (43.5) (-135) Open: -2.0 | 43.5
Auburn 24 - Kentucky: 10 (SEC)

Tigers (5 - 7) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Hugh Freeze (6 - 7)
Avg Score : 28 - 21 (17 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

AUB 3rd straight Road Game
Our Line: Auburn -4 (SP+ AUB -4)
Projected Score: AUB: 24 - UK: 20 (43)
UK Win prob: 55% | Cover: 50%
AUB Travel: 379 miles, 1 hrs behind

Wildcats (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mark Stoops (73 - 65)
Avg Score : 21 - 22 (22 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
AUB Players
UK Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Auburn's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Auburn vs Alabama A&M	-48.5	58.5	W 73 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Auburn vs California	-11.5	52.5	L 14 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/14	Auburn vs New Mexico	-25.5	58.5	W 45 - 19	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Auburn vs Arkansas	-2.5	53.5	L 14 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/28	Auburn vs Oklahoma	-2.0	43.0	L 21 - 27	O	N
Sat 10/5	Auburn at Georgia	+21.0	50.0	L 13 - 31	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Auburn at Missouri	+3.5	49.5	L 17 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/26	Auburn at Kentucky	+2.0	43.5	W 24 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Auburn vs Vanderbilt	-7.5	48.0	L 7 - 17	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Auburn vs UL Monroe	-24.5	46.0	W 48 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Auburn vs Texas A&M	+2.5	47.0	W 43 - 41	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Auburn at Alabama	+10.5	50.5	L 14 - 28	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Auburn's Schedule

Kentucky's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Kentucky vs Southern Miss	-25.5	50.5	W 31 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Kentucky vs South Carolina	-9.5	41.5	L 6 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/14	Kentucky vs Georgia	+24.0	45.0	L 12 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Kentucky vs Ohio	-19.0	42.0	W 41 - 6	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Kentucky at Ole Miss	+15.0	51.5	W 20 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Kentucky vs Vanderbilt	-12.5	44.5	L 13 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/19	Kentucky at Florida	-2.5	42.5	L 20 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/26	Kentucky vs Auburn	-2.0	43.5	L 10 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/2	Kentucky at Tennessee	+17.5	45.5	L 18 - 28	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Kentucky vs Murray State	-41.5	54.5	W 48 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Kentucky at Texas	+18.5	47.0	L 14 - 31	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Kentucky vs Louisville	+3.5	48.5	L 14 - 41	O	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AUB	#42 (.24)	45% (40)	27.8	48% (21)	3.32 (23)	166	42% (67)	264	3.42 (110)	#21 (.09)	38% (20)	21.3	38% (19)	38% (34)	3.35 (25)	49.3	1.8	1.1
UK	#118 (.09)	41% (89)	20.6	47% (31)	3.02 (71)	146	35% (123)	185	3.49 (104)	#62 (.16)	46% (111)	22.1	49% (122)	42% (75)	3.44 (31)	52.1	1.9	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AUB	#42 (.24)	45% (40)		48% (21)	3.32 (23)	166	42% (67)	264	3.42 (110)	#21 (.09)	38% (20)		38% (19)	38% (34)	3.35 (25)	49.3	1.8	1.1
UK	#118 (.09)	41% (89)		47% (31)	3.02 (71)	146	35% (123)	185	3.49 (104)	#62 (.16)	46% (111)		49% (122)	42% (75)	3.44 (31)	52.1	1.9	1.3

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AUB Offense	12	27.8	17	44.9%	3.42	1.8	21	430	166	264	5	48%	52%	48%	42%	17%	.24
UK Defense	12	22.1	17.6	46%	3.44	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	58%	42%	49%	42%	17%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AUB Defense	12	21.3	22.5	37.8%	3.35	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	38%	38%	15%	.09
UK Offense	12	20.6	21.9	41.5%	3.49	1.9	19	331	146	185	4	54%	46%	47%	35%	19%	.09

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Auburn	12	27:13	20.9	41%	47%	5.8	49.3	1.8	1.1	5.7	2.3	1	27.9
Kentucky	12	29:32	19.4	34%	44%	6.3	52.1	1.9	1.3	5.6	1.8	2	27

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AUB Offense	12	48% (85)	48% (21)	33.4	165.7	5	13 (105)	.16 (55)	3.32 (23)	69% (95)	10% (67)	0.92 (89)
UK Defense	12	58% (129)	49% (122)	-	-	-	-	.14 (75)	3 (67)	78% (101)	12% (32)	0.88 (24)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AUB Defense	12	53% (98)	38% (19)	-	-	-	-	-.02 (7)	2.49 (6)	80% (108)	10% (81)	0.93 (44)
UK Offense	12	54% (37)	47% (31)	36.7	146.4	4	11 (116)	.05 (107)	3.02 (71)	73% (71)	13% (120)	0.73 (133)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AUB Offense	12	52% (47)	42% (67)	19.2	30.8	263.9	8.6	13.8	27 (20)	13 (103)	.31 (45)	1.6 (39)	31% (55)	32% (69)	.41 (34)	7% (113)	1.9 (101)
UK Defense	12	42% (7)	42% (75)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.19 (46)	1.5 (27)	29% (109)	31% (83)	.3 (68)	5% (95)	2 (61)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AUB Defense	12	47% (42)	38% (34)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (93)	.22 (63)	1.7 (104)	35% (19)	28% (34)	.21 (31)	6% (77)	2.1 (85)
UK Offense	12	46% (97)	35% (123)	13.9	26	184.8	7.1	13.3	15 (98)	17 (127)	.13 (117)	1.9 (10)	33% (92)	28% (104)	.18 (114)	7% (103)	2.1 (46)

Auburn's Power Ratings
Auburn's Power Rating: 10.97 #27
Auburn's Offense Rating: 23.04 #40
Auburn's Defense Rating: 5.80 #32
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 40% #18
Auburn's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Auburn's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.5 #33
Auburn's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #63
Auburn's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.8 #17

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Auburn: 10.97 Kentucky: 6.32

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Auburn: 9.5 Kentucky: 5.5

Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 6.32 #54
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 16.88 #96
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 8.88 #62
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 28 #21
Kentucky's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Kentucky's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.5 #45
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #88
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #26

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Auburn Scoring
Offense: 27.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 17
Defense: 21.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.5

Auburn's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Auburn 24
Kentucky 20

Total Points: 43

Based on Last 4 Games
Kentucky 26
Auburn 17

Total Points: 42

Based on Entire Season
Kentucky 22
Auburn 21

Total Points: 43

Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 20.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.9
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.6

Kentucky's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 3 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/01	Auburn	3	Kentucky	10	Auburn -11.5	Kentucky	44.5	Under
2024	10/26	Kentucky	10	Auburn	24	Kentucky -2.0	Auburn	43.5	Under
2020	09/26	Auburn	29	Kentucky	13	Auburn -6.0	Auburn	47.0	Under
2015	10/15	Kentucky	27	Auburn	30	Auburn -1	Auburn	57.0	Push
2010	10/09	Kentucky	34	Auburn	37
2009	10/17	Auburn	14	Kentucky	21
2005	11/05	Kentucky	27	Auburn	49
2004	10/23	Auburn	42	Kentucky	10

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Kentucky	2	1	0 Overs
Auburn	6	3	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 6	1 - 3	1 - 2	0 - 1
Road Teams	6 - 2	3 - 1	1 - 0	2 - 1

(#27) AUB at (#54) UK

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	AUB	UK
Power RatePwr	#27	#54
SP+SP+	#33	#45
Perf GradeGrade	#28	#83
OffenseOff	#48	#95
DefenseDef	#20	#75
Spec TeamsST	#55	#32
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#18	#21

Auburn Injury Report

Kentucky Notes(11/23) 30 car, 21 yds vs Tex. QB Boley bad, Def fought
(10/30) UK on quit watch, bad body language past 2 L's
(10/27) Off broken, Haven't scored 21 pts in any SEC game
(10/16) Into UF wk, Stoops 5-8 in last 13 games
(10/13) Bad L (Vandy). Def good, QB v bad, Rgame Ok.
(9/28) Great W over Ole Miss. Rgame stopped, Pass good
(9/28) Run Def is great. Held Ole Miss 92 yds (3.2 ypc)
(9/15) OL/DL great vs UGA. Def good, Off bad, QB bad
(9/9) W/O OC Coen UKs Off has regressed badly twice
(9/8) 44 yds pass, 2 Int in bad L vs S Car. Rgame bad
(9/1) Def perfect vs S Miss. Eff off, QB Brock good start
(8/18) Starting RB Trayanum out for opener, poss more
Kentucky Injury Report

Auburn on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	AUB Off	UK Def
Perf GradePerf	#48	#75
SuccessSuc	#40	#111
ExplosiveExp	#71	#9
PPAPPA	#42	#62
PowerPwr	#40	#62
SP+SP+	#63	#26
Pts POPPO	#110	#31
HavocHav	#94	#56

Auburn Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	AUB Off	UK Def
Run GameRun	#73	#113
Run SuccessRSuc	#21	#122
Run ExplRExp	#89	#24
PPAExp	#55	#75
Run BlockR Blk	#43	-
OL YdsOLY	#23	#67
Stuff RateStuff	#60	#48
TackleTak	-	#104

Auburn Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	AUB Off	UK Def
Pass GamePass	#70	#55
Pass SuccessPSuc	#67	#75
Pass ExplPExl	#39	#27
PPAExp	#45	#46
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#61	#23
F7 HavocF7	#67	#32
DB HavocDB	#113	#95

Kentucky on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	UK Off	AUB Def
Perf GradePerf	#95	#20
SuccessSuc	#89	#20
ExplosiveExp	#123	#74
PPAPPA	#118	#21
PowerPwr	#96	#32
SP+SP+	#88	#17
Pts POPPO	#104	#25
HavocHav	#121	#79

Kentucky Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	UK Off	AUB Def
Run GameRun	#31	#11
Run SuccessRSuc	#31	#19
Run ExplRExp	#133	#44
PPAExp	#107	#7
Run BlockR Blk	#89	-
OL YdsOLY	#71	#6
Stuff RateStuff	#78	#20
TackleTak	-	#43

Kentucky Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	UK Off	AUB Def
Pass GamePass	#113	#73
Pass SuccessPSuc	#123	#34
Pass ExplPExl	#10	#104
PPAExp	#117	#63
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#116	#29
F7 HavocF7	#120	#81
DB HavocDB	#103	#77

Program Comparison
UK 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

AUB 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Commonwealth Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 55° - Wind: 6 mph

Rematch from Week 9
Kentucky -2.0 (43.5)
Auburn won at Kentucky this year (24-10)

Previous Matchups
Auburn beat Kentucky last year (24-10)

AUB's OC Derrick Nix (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Payton Thorne	199	317	63%	2713	21	9	8.6
Hank Brown	27	43	63%	403	6	3	9.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jarquez Hunter	187	1201	8	6.4	50
Payton Thorne	112	283	2	2.5	31
Damari Alston	52	276	3	5.3	36
Jeremiah Cobb	29	142	0	4.9	27

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Keandre Lambert	50	981	8	19.6	67
Cam Coleman	37	598	8	16.2	63
Malcolm Simmons	40	451	3	11.3	57
Rivaldo Fairweather	31	372	2	12.0	43

View Auburn's Full Roster

AUB's DC D. J. Durkin (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dorian Mausi Jr. (Tr)	81	9	3	1	2
Jerrin Thompson (Tr)	65	2	1	0	5
Jalen McLeod	56	14	8	2	1
Keldric Faulk	45	11	7	7	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jalen McLeod	56	14	8	2	1
Keldric Faulk	45	11	7	7	1
Demarcus Riddick	27	5	3	2	1
Dorian Mausi Jr. (Tr)	81	9	3	1	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Kayin Lee	32	0	0	7
Jay Crawford	15	0	0	7
Jerrin Thompson (Tr)	65	2	1	5

UK's OC Bush Hamdan (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brock Vandagriff (Tr)	125	218	57%	1593	10	8	7.3
Cutter Boley	26	53	49%	338	2	4	6.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jamarion Wilcox	92	590	2	6.4	50
Demie Sumo	129	586	5	4.5	22
Gavin Wimsatt (Tr)	49	183	2	3.7	24
Brock Vandagriff (Tr)	90	131	0	1.5	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dane Key	47	715	2	15.2	42
Barion Brown	29	361	3	12.4	63
Jay Maclin	13	313	4	24.1	83
Demie Sumo	20	154	0	7.7	18

View Kentucky's Full Roster

UK's DC Brad White (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jamon Dumas-Johnson (Tr)	67	7	4	1	0
Jordan Lovett	63	1	0	0	1
Alex Afari Jr.	62	11	2	1	1
Zion Childress	55	6	1	6	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
J.J. Weaver	31	7	4	4	1
Jamon Dumas-Johnson (Tr)	67	7	4	1	0
Tre'Vonn Rybka	34	5	3	2	1
Octavious Oxendine	20	5	3	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Terhyon Nichols	10	0	0	5
Maxwell Hairston	19	1	1	4
J.Q. Hardaway	47	0	0	3