Vanderbilt at Auburn - 2024 Matchup Preview

(#9)Vanderbilt Commodores at Auburn Tigers

Saturday, November 2nd 2024 (12:45 PM EDT)
Auburn -7.5 (48.0) (-278) Open: -5.0
Vanderbilt 17 - Auburn: 7 (SEC)

Commodores (7 - 6) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Clark Lea (9 - 27)
Avg Score : 27 - 23 (23 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

VAN is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Auburn -9 (SP+ AUB -5)
Projected Score: VAN: 19 - AUB: 28 (48)
AUB Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
VAN Travel: 256 miles

Tigers (5 - 7) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Hugh Freeze (6 - 7)
Avg Score : 28 - 21 (33 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
VAN Players
AUB Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Vanderbilt's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Vanderbilt vs Virginia Tech	+13.5	53.5	W 34 - 27	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Vanderbilt vs Alcorn State	-32.5	47.5	W 55 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Vanderbilt at Georgia State	-8.5	45.5	L 32 - 36	O	N
Sat 9/21	Vanderbilt at Missouri	+17.5	52.0	L 27 - 30	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Vanderbilt vs Alabama	+23.5	53.5	W 40 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Vanderbilt at Kentucky	+12.5	44.5	W 20 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Vanderbilt vs Ball State	-27.5	57.5	W 24 - 14	U	N
Sat 10/26	Vanderbilt vs Texas	+17.0	50.5	L 24 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Vanderbilt at Auburn	+7.5	48.0	W 17 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/9	Vanderbilt vs South Carolina	+6.0	44.5	L 7 - 28	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Vanderbilt at LSU	+10.0	53.0	L 17 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Vanderbilt vs Tennessee	+9.5	45.5	L 23 - 36	O	N
Fri 12/27	Vanderbilt vs Georgia Tech	+3.0	49.0	W 35 - 27	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Vanderbilt's Schedule

Auburn's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Auburn vs Alabama A&M	-48.5	58.5	W 73 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Auburn vs California	-11.5	52.5	L 14 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/14	Auburn vs New Mexico	-25.5	58.5	W 45 - 19	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Auburn vs Arkansas	-2.5	53.5	L 14 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/28	Auburn vs Oklahoma	-2.0	43.0	L 21 - 27	O	N
Sat 10/5	Auburn at Georgia	+21.0	50.0	L 13 - 31	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Auburn at Missouri	+3.5	49.5	L 17 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/26	Auburn at Kentucky	+2.0	43.5	W 24 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Auburn vs Vanderbilt	-7.5	48.0	L 7 - 17	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Auburn vs UL Monroe	-24.5	46.0	W 48 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Auburn vs Texas A&M	+2.5	47.0	W 43 - 41	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Auburn at Alabama	+10.5	50.5	L 14 - 28	U	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
VAN	#76 (.17)	42% (75)	27.3	42% (93)	2.8 (105)	129	43% (53)	166	4.25 (34)	#111 (.25)	47% (121)	23.4	46% (96)	48% (125)	4.22 (109)	48.3	0.5	1.1
AUB	#42 (.24)	45% (40)	27.8	48% (21)	3.32 (23)	166	42% (67)	264	3.42 (110)	#21 (.09)	38% (20)	21.3	38% (19)	38% (34)	3.35 (25)	49.3	1.8	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
VAN	#76 (.17)	42% (75)		42% (93)	2.8 (105)	129	43% (53)	166	4.25 (34)	#111 (.25)	47% (121)		46% (96)	48% (125)	4.22 (109)	48.3	0.5	1.1
AUB	#42 (.24)	45% (40)		48% (21)	3.32 (23)	166	42% (67)	264	3.42 (110)	#21 (.09)	38% (20)		38% (19)	38% (34)	3.35 (25)	49.3	1.8	1.1

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
VAN Offense	13	27.3	22.6	42.2%	4.25	0.5	17	295	129	166	3.9	58%	42%	42%	43%	15%	.17
AUB Defense	12	21.3	20.8	37.8%	3.35	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	38%	38%	15%	.09

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
VAN Defense	13	23.4	22	46.9%	4.22	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	46%	48%	16%	.25
AUB Offense	12	27.8	33.1	44.9%	3.42	1.8	21	430	166	264	5	48%	52%	48%	42%	17%	.24

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Vanderbilt	13	28:39	16.6	44%	54%	5	48.3	0.5	1.1	4.8	1.7	4	31.3
Auburn	12	27:13	20.9	41%	47%	5.8	49.3	1.8	1.1	5.7	2.3	1	27.9

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
VAN Offense	13	58% (18)	42% (93)	33.1	129.2	3.9	16 (90)	.06 (104)	2.8 (105)	83% (10)	8% (41)	0.87 (116)
AUB Defense	12	53% (98)	38% (19)	-	-	-	-	-.02 (7)	2.49 (6)	80% (108)	10% (81)	0.93 (44)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
VAN Defense	13	49% (47)	46% (96)	-	-	-	-	.12 (70)	2.98 (62)	77% (88)	10% (76)	0.89 (30)
AUB Offense	12	48% (85)	48% (21)	33.4	165.7	5	13 (105)	.16 (55)	3.32 (23)	69% (95)	10% (67)	0.92 (89)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
VAN Offense	13	42% (115)	43% (53)	12.8	21.8	166.3	7.6	13	18 (68)	4 (1)	.33 (33)	1.7 (37)	33% (108)	31% (74)	.32 (75)	7% (96)	2.1 (64)
AUB Defense	12	47% (42)	38% (34)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (93)	.22 (63)	1.7 (104)	35% (19)	28% (34)	.21 (31)	6% (77)	2.1 (85)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
VAN Defense	13	51% (90)	48% (125)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.37 (120)	1.5 (33)	29% (111)	36% (122)	.45 (117)	7% (48)	2.1 (72)
AUB Offense	12	52% (47)	42% (67)	19.2	30.8	263.9	8.6	13.8	27 (20)	13 (103)	.31 (45)	1.6 (39)	31% (55)	32% (69)	.41 (34)	7% (113)	1.9 (101)

Vanderbilt's Power Ratings
Vanderbilt's Power Rating: 2.99 #49
Vanderbilt's Offense Rating: 19.12 #75
Vanderbilt's Defense Rating: 12.18 #91
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #65
Vanderbilt's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
Vanderbilt's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.9 #50
Vanderbilt's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #60
Vanderbilt's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #59

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Vanderbilt: 2.99 Auburn: 12.735

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Vanderbilt: 4.9 Auburn: 9.5

Auburn's Power Ratings
Auburn's Power Rating: 12.735 #27
Auburn's Offense Rating: 23.04 #40
Auburn's Defense Rating: 5.80 #32
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 40 #18
Auburn's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Auburn's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.5 #33
Auburn's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #63
Auburn's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.8 #17

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Vanderbilt Scoring
Offense: 27.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.6
Defense: 23.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 22

Vanderbilt's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 8 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Auburn 28
Vanderbilt 19

Total Points: 48

Based on Last 4 Games
Vanderbilt 24
Auburn 19

Total Points: 43

Based on Entire Season
Auburn 27
Vanderbilt 23

Total Points: 50

Auburn Scoring
Offense: 27.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.1
Defense: 21.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.8

Auburn's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/08	Vanderbilt	45	Auburn	38	Vanderbilt -6	Vanderbilt	46.5	Over
2024	11/02	Auburn	7	Vanderbilt	17	Auburn -7.5	Vanderbilt	48.0	Under
2023	11/04	Vanderbilt	15	Auburn	31	Auburn -12.5	Auburn	50.0	Under
2016	11/05	Auburn	23	Vanderbilt	16	Auburn -26	Vanderbilt	47.0	Under
2012	10/20	Vanderbilt	17	Auburn	13
2008	10/04	Vanderbilt	14	Auburn	13
2007	10/06	Auburn	35	Vanderbilt	7
2003	09/13	Vanderbilt	7	Auburn	45
2002	09/14	Auburn	31	Vanderbilt	6
2001	09/29	Vanderbilt	21	Auburn	24
2000	09/29	Auburn	33	Vanderbilt	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Auburn	7	1	1 Overs
Vanderbilt	4	3	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	7 - 4	1 - 3	1 - 2	0 - 1
Road Teams	4 - 7	3 - 1	1 - 0	2 - 1

(#49) VAN at (#27) AUB

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	VAN	AUB
Power RatePwr	#49	#27
SP+SP+	#50	#33
Perf GradeGrade	#81	#28
OffenseOff	#77	#48
DefenseDef	#100	#20
Spec TeamsST	#59	#55
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#65	#18

Vanderbilt Injury Report

Auburn Injury Report

Vanderbilt on Offense

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	VAN Off	AUB Def
Perf GradePerf	#77	#20
SuccessSuc	#75	#20
ExplosiveExp	#108	#74
PPAPPA	#76	#21
PowerPwr	#75	#32
SP+SP+	#60	#17
Pts POPPO	#34	#25
HavocHav	#52	#79

Vanderbilt Run Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	VAN Off	AUB Def
Run GameRun	#81	#11
Run SuccessRSuc	#93	#19
Run ExplRExp	#116	#44
PPAExp	#104	#7
Run BlockR Blk	#107	-
OL YdsOLY	#105	#6
Stuff RateStuff	#117	#20
TackleTak	-	#43

Vanderbilt Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	VAN Off	AUB Def
Pass GamePass	#16	#73
Pass SuccessPSuc	#53	#34
Pass ExplPExl	#37	#104
PPAExp	#33	#63
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#127	#29
F7 HavocF7	#41	#81
DB HavocDB	#96	#77

Auburn on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	AUB Off	VAN Def
Perf GradePerf	#48	#100
SuccessSuc	#40	#121
ExplosiveExp	#71	#38
PPAPPA	#42	#111
PowerPwr	#40	#91
SP+SP+	#63	#59
Pts POPPO	#110	#109
HavocHav	#94	#65

Auburn Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	AUB Off	VAN Def
Run GameRun	#73	#65
Run SuccessRSuc	#21	#96
Run ExplRExp	#89	#30
PPAExp	#55	#70
Run BlockR Blk	#43	-
OL YdsOLY	#23	#62
Stuff RateStuff	#60	#39
TackleTak	-	#105

Auburn Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	AUB Off	VAN Def
Pass GamePass	#70	#106
Pass SuccessPSuc	#67	#125
Pass ExplPExl	#39	#33
PPAExp	#45	#120
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#61	#107
F7 HavocF7	#67	#76
DB HavocDB	#113	#48

Program Comparison
AUB 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

VAN 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Jordan-Hare Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 78° - Wind: 6 mph

Rematch from Week 10
Auburn -7.5 (48.0)
Vanderbilt won at Auburn this year (17-7)

Previous Matchups
Vanderbilt beat Auburn last year (17-7)
Auburn beat Vanderbilt in 2023 (31-15)

VAN's OC Tim Beck (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Diego Pavia (Tr)	177	298	59%	2293	20	4	7.7
Nate Johnson (Tr)	1	3	33%	12	0	0	4.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Diego Pavia (Tr)	193	800	8	4.1	36
Sedrick Alexander	164	586	6	3.6	31
AJ Newberry	41	185	3	4.5	20
Nate Johnson (Tr)	11	114	1	10.4	56

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Eli Stowers (Tr)	49	638	5	13.0	41
Junior Sherrill	29	411	3	14.2	43
Quincy Skinner Jr.	29	367	3	12.7	63
Sedrick Alexander	23	238	1	10.3	38

View Vanderbilt's Full Roster

VAN's DC Clark Lea (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bryan Longwell	88	8	2	2	4
Langston Patterson	78	5	0	0	2
Randon Fontenette (Tr)	72	8	3	0	7
CJ Taylor	64	3	0	1	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nicholas Rinaldi	52	6	6	0	0
Khordae Sydnor (Tr)	14	7	4	2	2
Randon Fontenette (Tr)	72	8	3	0	7
Miles Capers	45	8	3	1	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Randon Fontenette (Tr)	72	8	3	0	7
Bryan Longwell	88	8	2	2	4
Martel Hight	33	2	0	1	4

AUB's OC Derrick Nix (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Payton Thorne	199	317	63%	2713	21	9	8.6
Hank Brown	27	43	63%	403	6	3	9.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jarquez Hunter	187	1201	8	6.4	50
Payton Thorne	112	283	2	2.5	31
Damari Alston	52	276	3	5.3	36
Jeremiah Cobb	29	142	0	4.9	27

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Keandre Lambert	50	981	8	19.6	67
Cam Coleman	37	598	8	16.2	63
Malcolm Simmons	40	451	3	11.3	57
Rivaldo Fairweather	31	372	2	12.0	43

View Auburn's Full Roster

AUB's DC D. J. Durkin (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dorian Mausi Jr. (Tr)	81	9	3	1	2
Jerrin Thompson (Tr)	65	2	1	0	5
Jalen McLeod	56	14	8	2	1
Keldric Faulk	45	11	7	7	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jalen McLeod	56	14	8	2	1
Keldric Faulk	45	11	7	7	1
Demarcus Riddick	27	5	3	2	1
Dorian Mausi Jr. (Tr)	81	9	3	1	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Kayin Lee	32	0	0	7
Jay Crawford	15	0	0	7
Jerrin Thompson (Tr)	65	2	1	5