Murray State at Kentucky - 2024 Matchup Preview
Murray State logo   Murray State Racers at Kentucky Wildcats  Kentucky logo
Saturday, November 16th 2024 (1:30 PM EST)
Kentucky -41.5 (54.5) (0)  Open: 0.0 | 49.5
Kentucky 48 - Murray State: 6

 
Racers (0 - 2) (0 - 2 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 16 - 41 (16 - 41 on Road)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
MURR coming off BYE
UK coming off BYE
Our Line: Kentucky -6.5  (SP+ UK -6)
UK Win prob: 100% | Cover: 45%
Wildcats (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mark Stoops (73 - 65)
Avg Score : 23 - 26 (32 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Murray State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29 Murray State at Missouri+50.562.5L 0 - 51UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Murray State at Kentucky+41.554.5L 6 - 48UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Murray State's Schedule
Kentucky's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Kentucky vs Southern Miss-25.550.5W 31 - 0UY
Sat 9/7 Kentucky vs South Carolina-9.541.5L 6 - 31UN
Sat 9/14 Kentucky vs Georgia+24.045.0L 12 - 13UY
Sat 9/21 Kentucky vs Ohio-19.042.0W 41 - 6OY
Sat 9/28 Kentucky at Ole Miss+15.051.5W 20 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Kentucky vs Vanderbilt-12.544.5L 13 - 20UN
Sat 10/19 Kentucky at Florida-2.542.5L 20 - 48ON
Sat 10/26 Kentucky vs Auburn-2.043.5L 10 - 24UN
Sat 11/2 Kentucky at Tennessee+17.545.5L 18 - 28OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Kentucky vs Murray State-41.554.5W 48 - 6UY
Sat 11/23 Kentucky at Texas+18.547.0L 14 - 31UY
Sat 11/30 Kentucky vs Louisville+3.548.5L 14 - 41ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Kentucky's Schedule
Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MURR0%15.50%000%000%410%0%0000
UK#49 (.22)40% (93)2341% (88)2.79 (118)12840% (83)2124.46 (23)#50 (.16)43% (87)26.442% (56)45% (116)3.95 (84)50.81.51.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MURR0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UK0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MURR Offense215.515.50%00000000%0%0%0%0%
UK Defense1326.422.643.3%3.951.4 - - - - - 48%51%42%45%14%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MURR Defense241410%00 - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%
UK Offense132331.740%4.461.5173391282124.943%55%41%40%18%.22

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Murray State20:000NAN%0%0000000100
Kentucky1327:3416.938%20%6.150.81.51.45.52629.3
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MURR Offense20%0%000000%0%0
UK Defense1348% (46)42% (56) - - - - .1 (40)2.87 (29)70% (48)10% (75)0.87 (18)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MURR Defense20%0% - - - - 00%0%0
UK Offense1343% (108)41% (88)26.1127.74.918 (77).15 (71)2.79 (118)68% (106)11% (79)1.12 (17)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MURR Offense20%0%000000000%0%0%0
UK Defense1351% (92)45% (116) - - - - - - 11 (53).23 (45)1.4 (11)31% (76)30% (70).39 (104)5% (114)2.1 (75)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MURR Defense20%0% - - - - - - 000%0%0%0
UK Offense1355% (26)40% (83)16.228.8211.67.41325 (37)11 (68).32 (54)1.7 (25)35% (114)28% (88).31 (77)8% (113)2.2 (19)

Murray State's Power Ratings
Murray State's Power Rating: NR
Murray State's Offense Rating: NR
Murray State's Defense Rating: NR
2024 Talent Rating: NR
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Murray State's 2024 Expected Record: -
Murray State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
Murray State's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
Murray State's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average OVC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Murray State:    Kentucky: 6.32

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Murray State:    Kentucky: 5.5




Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 6.32  #54
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 16.88  #96
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 8.88  #62
2024 Talent Rating: 439.00  #25
Blue Chip Ratio: 28  #21
Kentucky's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Kentucky's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.5  #45
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5  #88
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9  #26

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 511.63
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4


Murray State Scoring
Offense: 15.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.5
Defense: 41 PPG
Defense on Road: 41

Murray State's 2024 Record
Record: 0 - 2
Record vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 2
Record on Road: 0 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Kentucky 30
Murray State 24

Projected Total Points: 54
Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 23 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.7
Defense: 26.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.6

Kentucky's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 3 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/16Kentucky48Murray State6Kentucky -41.5Kentucky54.5Under
201809/15Kentucky48Murray State10Kentucky -41Murray State56.5Over
200309/06Kentucky37Murray State6
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Kentucky311 Overs
Murray State011 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 01 - 11 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 31 - 10 - 01 - 1

(#) MURR at (#54) UK
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMURRUK
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNR #54
SP+SP+NR #45
Perf GradeGradeNR #83
OffenseOffNR #95
DefenseDefNR #75
Spec TeamsSTNR #32
TalentTalNR #25
Blue ChipsBC%NR #21
Kentucky Notes
(11/23) 30 car, 21 yds vs Tex. QB Boley bad, Def fought
(10/30) UK on quit watch, bad body language past 2 L's
(10/27) Off broken, Haven't scored 21 pts in any SEC game
(10/16) Into UF wk, Stoops 5-8 in last 13 games
(10/13) Bad L (Vandy). Def good, QB v bad, Rgame Ok.
(9/28) Great W over Ole Miss. Rgame stopped, Pass good
(9/28) Run Def is great. Held Ole Miss 92 yds (3.2 ypc)
(9/15) OL/DL great vs UGA. Def good, Off bad, QB bad
(9/9) W/O OC Coen UKs Off has regressed badly twice
(9/8) 44 yds pass, 2 Int in bad L vs S Car. Rgame bad
(9/1) Def perfect vs S Miss. Eff off, QB Brock good start
(8/18) Starting RB Trayanum out for opener, poss more
Kentucky Injury Report
Murray State on Offense
CategoryCat
MURR OffUK Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNR #75
SuccessSucNR #87
ExplosiveExpNR #10
PPAPPANR #50
PowerPwrNR #62
SP+SP+NR #26
Pts POPPONR #84
HavocHavNR #111
Murray State Run Game
CategoryCat
MURR OffUK Def
Run GameRunNR #113
Run SuccessRSucNR #56
Run ExplRExpNR #18
PPAExpNR #40
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNR #29
Stuff RateStuffNR #26
TackleTak -  #104
Murray State Pass Game
CategoryCat
MURR OffUK Def
Pass GamePassNR #55
Pass SuccessPSucNR #116
Pass ExplPExlNR #11
PPAExpNR #45
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNR #23
F7 HavocF7NR #75
DB HavocDBNR #114
Kentucky on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCatUK OffMURR Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #95NR
SuccessSuc #93NR
ExplosiveExp #4NR
PPAPPA #49NR
PowerPwr #96NR
SP+SP+ #88NR
Pts POPPO #23NR
HavocHav #102NR
Kentucky Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
UK OffMURR Def
Run GameRun #31NR
Run SuccessRSuc #88NR
Run ExplRExp #17NR
PPAExp #71NR
Run BlockR Blk #89 -
OL YdsOLY #118NR
Stuff RateStuff #131NR
TackleTak - NR
Kentucky Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCatUK OffMURR Def
Pass GamePass #113NR
Pass SuccessPSuc #83NR
Pass ExplPExl #25NR
PPAExp #54NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #116NR
F7 HavocF7 #79NR
DB HavocDB #113NR
Program Comparison
UK 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'24 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

MURR 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'24 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Commonwealth Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 12
Kentucky -41.5 (54.5)
Kentucky won vs Murray State this year (48-6)

Previous Matchups
Kentucky beat Murray State in 2024 (48-6)

  
MURR's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Murray State's Full Roster

MURR's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Amari Wansley (Tr)190000
Justice Cross (Tr)90000
Esteban Guillory82100
Larry Preston80000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayson Coley62200
Esteban Guillory82100
Kevon Haigler (Tr)22101
Amari Wansley (Tr)190000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josh Williamson30001
KaVan Reed71001
Kevon Haigler (Tr)22101

UK's OC Bush Hamdan (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brock Vandagriff (Tr)12521857%15931087.3
Cutter Boley265349%338246.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jamarion Wilcox9259026.450
Demie Sumo12958654.522
Gavin Wimsatt (Tr)4918323.724
Brock Vandagriff (Tr)9013101.522
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Dane Key47715215.242
Barion Brown29361312.463
Jay Maclin13313424.183
Demie Sumo2015407.718

View Kentucky's Full Roster

UK's DC Brad White (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamon Dumas-Johnson (Tr)677410
Jordan Lovett631001
Alex Afari Jr.6211211
Zion Childress556162
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
J.J. Weaver317441
Jamon Dumas-Johnson (Tr)677410
Tre'Vonn Rybka345321
Octavious Oxendine205330
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Terhyon Nichols100005
Maxwell Hairston191104
J.Q. Hardaway470003