Kentucky at Tennessee - 2024 Matchup Preview
Kentucky logo   Kentucky Wildcats at Tennessee Volunteers  Tennessee logo
Saturday, November 2nd 2024 (7:45 PM EDT)
Tennessee -17.5 (45.5) (-950)  Open: -13.0
Tennessee 28 - Kentucky: 18  (SEC)

 
Wildcats (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mark Stoops (73 - 65)
Avg Score : 23 - 26 (11 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
TENN coming off BYE
UK is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Tennessee -17  (SP+ TENN -17)

Projected Score: UK: 17 - TENN: 34 (52)
TENN Win prob: 89% | Cover: 51%
UK Travel: 146 miles
Volunteers (10 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Josh Heupel (27 - 12)
Avg Score : 40 - 29 (42 - 29 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Kentucky's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Kentucky vs Southern Miss-25.550.5W 31 - 0UY
Sat 9/7 Kentucky vs South Carolina-9.541.5L 6 - 31UN
Sat 9/14 Kentucky vs Georgia+24.045.0L 12 - 13UY
Sat 9/21 Kentucky vs Ohio-19.042.0W 41 - 6OY
Sat 9/28 Kentucky at Ole Miss+15.051.5W 20 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Kentucky vs Vanderbilt-12.544.5L 13 - 20UN
Sat 10/19 Kentucky at Florida-2.542.5L 20 - 48ON
Sat 10/26 Kentucky vs Auburn-2.043.5L 10 - 24UN
Sat 11/2 Kentucky at Tennessee+17.545.5L 18 - 28OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Kentucky vs Murray State-41.554.5W 48 - 6UY
Sat 11/23 Kentucky at Texas+18.547.0L 14 - 31UY
Sat 11/30 Kentucky vs Louisville+3.548.5L 14 - 41ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Kentucky's Schedule
Tennessee's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Tennessee vs Chattanooga-38.556.5W 69 - 3OY
Sat 9/7 Tennessee vs NC State-10.060.5W 51 - 10OY
Sat 9/14 Tennessee vs Kent State-49.561.5W 71 - 0OY
Sat 9/21 Tennessee at Oklahoma-6.057.0W 25 - 15UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 Tennessee at Arkansas-14.057.5L 14 - 19UN
Sat 10/12 Tennessee vs Florida-13.554.5W 23 - 17UN
Sat 10/19 Tennessee vs Alabama+3.557.5W 24 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2 Tennessee vs Kentucky-17.545.5W 28 - 18ON
Sat 11/9 Tennessee vs Mississippi State-26.561.5W 33 - 14UN
Sat 11/16 Tennessee at Georgia+8.547.0L 17 - 31ON
Sat 11/23 Tennessee vs UTEP-41.554.0W 56 - 0OY
Sat 11/30 Tennessee at Vanderbilt-9.545.5W 36 - 23OY
Sat 12/21 Tennessee at Ohio State+7.547.0L 17 - 42ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Tennessee's Schedule
Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UK#49 (.22)40% (93)2341% (88)2.79 (118)12840% (83)2124.46 (23)#50 (.16)43% (87)26.442% (56)45% (116)3.95 (84)50.81.51.4
TENN#36 (.27)46% (24)39.846% (39)3.31 (30)18747% (25)2323.56 (94)#54 (.16)39% (35)28.837% (19)41% (65)3.41 (34)65.60.91.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UK0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TENN0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UK Offense132310.840%4.461.5173391282124.943%55%41%40%18%.22
TENN Defense1328.82938.9%3.411.2 - - - - - 48%52%37%41%18%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UK Defense1326.431.843.3%3.951.4 - - - - - 48%51%42%45%14%.16
TENN Offense1339.842.346.3%3.560.9204191872325.651%49%46%47%13%.27

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Kentucky1327:3416.938%20%6.150.81.51.45.52629.3
Tennessee1322:3219.943%31%7.565.60.91.27.22.8430.3
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UK Offense1343% (108)41% (88)26.1127.74.918 (77).15 (71)2.79 (118)68% (106)11% (79)1.12 (17)
TENN Defense1348% (41)37% (19) - - - - .05 (21)2.71 (15)65% (24)13% (11)1.03 (85)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UK Defense1348% (46)42% (56) - - - - .1 (40)2.87 (29)70% (48)10% (75)0.87 (18)
TENN Offense1351% (60)46% (39)33.5186.95.620 (61).22 (28)3.31 (30)72% (80)7% (16)1.05 (39)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UK Offense1355% (26)40% (83)16.228.8211.67.41325 (37)11 (68).32 (54)1.7 (25)35% (114)28% (88).31 (77)8% (113)2.2 (19)
TENN Defense1352% (96)41% (65) - - - - - - 10 (67).29 (85)1.6 (85)35% (27)31% (82).36 (93)5% (100)2 (41)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UK Defense1351% (92)45% (116) - - - - - - 11 (53).23 (45)1.4 (11)31% (76)30% (70).39 (104)5% (114)2.1 (75)
TENN Offense1349% (69)47% (25)19.330.1231.77.71221 (65)5 (6).35 (39)1.5 (110)30% (39)32% (64).38 (54)6% (68)2.1 (63)

Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 2.14  #54
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 16.88  #96
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 8.88  #62
2024 Talent Rating: 439.00  #25
Blue Chip Ratio: 28%  #21
Kentucky's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Kentucky's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.5  #45
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5  #88
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9  #26

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 511.63
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Kentucky: 2.14   Tennessee: 21.065

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Kentucky: 5.5   Tennessee: 22.0




Tennessee's Power Ratings
Tennessee's Power Rating: 21.065  #14
Tennessee's Offense Rating: 20.60  #61
Tennessee's Defense Rating: 3.79  #16
2024 Talent Rating: 521.00  #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 44  #12
Tennessee's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Tennessee's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 22.0  #9
Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.7  #23
Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 13.5  #6

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 511.63
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4


Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 23 PPG
Offense on Road: 10.8
Defense: 26.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.8

Kentucky's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Tennessee 34
Kentucky 17


Projected Total Points: 52
Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 39.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 42.3
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 29

Tennessee's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/25Kentucky34Tennessee56Tennessee -7.5Tennessee55.5Over
202411/02Tennessee28Kentucky18Tennessee -17.5Kentucky45.5Over
202310/28Kentucky27Tennessee33Tennessee -4Tennessee50.5Over
202210/29Tennessee44Kentucky6Tennessee -10.5Tennessee62.5Under
202111/06Kentucky42Tennessee45Tennessee -1Tennessee57.5Over
202010/17Tennessee7Kentucky34Tennessee -6.0Kentucky45.5Under
201911/09Kentucky13Tennessee17Kentucky -2Tennessee42.0Under
201811/10Tennessee24Kentucky7Kentucky -5Tennessee43.0Under
201710/28Kentucky29Tennessee26Kentucky -4Tennessee46.0Over
201611/12Tennessee49Kentucky36Tennessee -10.5Tennessee58.0Over
201510/31Kentucky21Tennessee52Tennessee -7.5Tennessee60.5Over
201411/15Tennessee50Kentucky16Tennessee -6.5Tennessee0
201311/30Kentucky14Tennessee27Tennessee -4Tennessee0
201211/24Tennessee37Kentucky17
201111/26Kentucky10Tennessee7
201011/27Tennessee24Kentucky14
200911/28Kentucky24Tennessee30
200811/29Tennessee28Kentucky10
200711/24Kentucky50Tennessee52
200611/25Tennessee17Kentucky12
200511/26Kentucky8Tennessee27
200411/27Tennessee37Kentucky31
200311/29Kentucky7Tennessee20
200111/17Kentucky35Tennessee38
200011/17Tennessee59Kentucky20
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Tennessee22117 Overs
Kentucky324 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams13 - 124 - 93 - 41 - 5
Road Teams12 - 139 - 45 - 14 - 3

(#54) UK at (#14) TENN
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUKTENN
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #54 #14
SP+SP+ #45 #9
Perf GradeGrade #83 #21
OffenseOff #95 #57
DefenseDef #75 #19
Spec TeamsST #32 #42
TalentTal #25 #15
Blue ChipsBC% #21 #12
Kentucky Notes
(11/23) 30 car, 21 yds vs Tex. QB Boley bad, Def fought
(10/30) UK on quit watch, bad body language past 2 L's
(10/27) Off broken, Haven't scored 21 pts in any SEC game
(10/16) Into UF wk, Stoops 5-8 in last 13 games
(10/13) Bad L (Vandy). Def good, QB v bad, Rgame Ok.
(9/28) Great W over Ole Miss. Rgame stopped, Pass good
(9/28) Run Def is great. Held Ole Miss 92 yds (3.2 ypc)
(9/15) OL/DL great vs UGA. Def good, Off bad, QB bad
(9/9) W/O OC Coen UKs Off has regressed badly twice
(9/8) 44 yds pass, 2 Int in bad L vs S Car. Rgame bad
(9/1) Def perfect vs S Miss. Eff off, QB Brock good start
(8/18) Starting RB Trayanum out for opener, poss more
Kentucky Injury Report
Kentucky on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
UK OffTENN Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #95 #19
SuccessSuc #93 #35
ExplosiveExp #4 #104
PPAPPA #49 #54
PowerPwr #96 #16
SP+SP+ #88 #6
Pts POPPO #23 #34
HavocHav #102 #35
Kentucky Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
UK OffTENN Def
Run GameRun #31 #14
Run SuccessRSuc #88 #19
Run ExplRExp #17 #85
PPAExp #71 #21
Run BlockR Blk #89 -
OL YdsOLY #118 #15
Stuff RateStuff #131 #28
TackleTak -  #29
Kentucky Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
UK OffTENN Def
Pass GamePass #113 #27
Pass SuccessPSuc #83 #65
Pass ExplPExl #25 #85
PPAExp #54 #85
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #116 #13
F7 HavocF7 #79 #11
DB HavocDB #113 #100
Tennessee on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCatTENN OffUK Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #57 #75
SuccessSuc #24 #87
ExplosiveExp #86 #10
PPAPPA #36 #50
PowerPwr #61 #62
SP+SP+ #23 #26
Pts POPPO #94 #84
HavocHav #21 #111
Tennessee Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
TENN OffUK Def
Run GameRun #25 #113
Run SuccessRSuc #39 #56
Run ExplRExp #39 #18
PPAExp #28 #40
Run BlockR Blk #89 -
OL YdsOLY #30 #29
Stuff RateStuff #10 #26
TackleTak -  #104
Tennessee Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCatTENN OffUK Def
Pass GamePass #21 #55
Pass SuccessPSuc #25 #116
Pass ExplPExl #110 #11
PPAExp #39 #45
Pass Block/RushP Blk #75 #23
F7 HavocF7 #16 #75
DB HavocDB #68 #114
Program Comparison
TENN 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'24 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

UK 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'24 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Neyland Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 10
Tennessee -17.5 (45.5)
Tennessee won vs Kentucky this year (28-18)

Previous Matchups
Tennessee beat Kentucky last year (56-34)
Tennessee beat Kentucky in 2024 (28-18)
Tennessee beat Kentucky in 2023 (33-27)

  
UK's OC Bush Hamdan (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brock Vandagriff (Tr)12521857%15931087.3
Cutter Boley265349%338246.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jamarion Wilcox9259026.450
Demie Sumo12958654.522
Gavin Wimsatt (Tr)4918323.724
Brock Vandagriff (Tr)9013101.522
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Dane Key47715215.242
Barion Brown29361312.463
Jay Maclin13313424.183
Demie Sumo2015407.718

View Kentucky's Full Roster

UK's DC Brad White (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamon Dumas-Johnson (Tr)677410
Jordan Lovett631001
Alex Afari Jr.6211211
Zion Childress556162
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
J.J. Weaver317441
Jamon Dumas-Johnson (Tr)677410
Tre'Vonn Rybka345321
Octavious Oxendine205330
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Terhyon Nichols100005
Maxwell Hairston191104
J.Q. Hardaway470003

TENN's OC Joey Halzle (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Nico Iamaleava21333464%26161957.8
Gaston Moore162759%201227.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dylan Sampson2581491225.856
DeSean Bishop7445536.153
Nico Iamaleava10936433.331
Peyton Lewis6433935.335
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Dont'E Thornton26661625.486
Bru McCoy39472212.142
Squirrel White34381211.245
Chris Brazzell II (Tr)29333211.553

View Tennessee's Full Roster

TENN's DC Tim Banks (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Arion Carter687036
Will Brooks594115
Jermod McCoy (Tr)441007
Jeremiah Telander434111
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
James Pearce Jr.38138101
Omarr Norman-Lott184430
Jaxson Moi (Tr)165201
Tyre West165220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jermod McCoy (Tr)441007
Arion Carter687036
Will Brooks594115