Kentucky at Tennessee - 2024 Matchup Preview
Kentucky logo Kentucky Wildcats at Tennessee Volunteers(#15)Tennessee logo
Saturday, November 2nd 2024 (7:45 PM EDT)
Tennessee -17.5 (45.5) (-950)  Open: -13.0
Tennessee 28 - Kentucky: 18  (SEC)

 
Wildcats (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mark Stoops (73 - 65)
Avg Score : 21 - 22 (18 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
TENN coming off BYE
UK is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Tennessee -17   (SP+ TENN -17)

Projected Score: UK: 15 - TENN: 32 (47)
TENN Win prob: 89% | Cover: 51%
UK Travel: 146 miles
Volunteers (10 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Josh Heupel (27 - 12)
Avg Score : 36 - 16 (43 - 10 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
 
Kentucky's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Kentucky vs Southern Miss-25.550.5W 31 - 0UY
Sat 9/7 Kentucky vs South Carolina-9.541.5L 6 - 31UN
Sat 9/14 Kentucky vs Georgia+24.045.0L 12 - 13UY
Sat 9/21 Kentucky vs Ohio-19.042.0W 41 - 6OY
Sat 9/28 Kentucky at Ole Miss+15.051.5W 20 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Kentucky vs Vanderbilt-12.544.5L 13 - 20UN
Sat 10/19 Kentucky at Florida-2.542.5L 20 - 48ON
Sat 10/26 Kentucky vs Auburn-2.043.5L 10 - 24UN
Sat 11/2 Kentucky at Tennessee+17.545.5L 18 - 28OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Kentucky vs Murray State-41.554.5W 48 - 6UY
Sat 11/23 Kentucky at Texas+18.547.0L 14 - 31UY
Sat 11/30 Kentucky vs Louisville+3.548.5L 14 - 41ON

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Kentucky's Schedule
Tennessee's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Tennessee vs Chattanooga-38.556.5W 69 - 3OY
Sat 9/7 Tennessee vs NC State-10.060.5W 51 - 10OY
Sat 9/14 Tennessee vs Kent State-49.561.5W 71 - 0OY
Sat 9/21 Tennessee at Oklahoma-6.057.0W 25 - 15UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 Tennessee at Arkansas-14.057.5L 14 - 19UN
Sat 10/12 Tennessee vs Florida-13.554.5W 23 - 17UN
Sat 10/19 Tennessee vs Alabama+3.557.5W 24 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2 Tennessee vs Kentucky-17.545.5W 28 - 18ON
Sat 11/9 Tennessee vs Mississippi State-26.561.5W 33 - 14UN
Sat 11/16 Tennessee at Georgia+8.547.0L 17 - 31ON
Sat 11/23 Tennessee vs UTEP-41.554.0W 56 - 0OY
Sat 11/30 Tennessee at Vanderbilt-9.545.5W 36 - 23OY
Sat 12/21 Tennessee at Ohio State+7.547.0L 17 - 42ON

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Tennessee's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UK#118 (.09)41% (89)20.647% (31)3.02 (71)14635% (123)1853.49 (104)#62 (.16)46% (111)22.149% (122)42% (75)3.44 (31)52.11.91.3
TENN#46 (.23)47% (18)35.748% (23)3.4 (13)22747% (19)2214.02 (55)#13 (.07)38% (17)16.136% (9)39% (48)3.03 (10)66.81.21.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UK#118 (.09)41% (89)47% (31)3.02 (71)14635% (123)1853.49 (104)#62 (.16)46% (111)49% (122)42% (75)3.44 (31)52.11.91.3
TENN#46 (.23)47% (18)48% (23)3.4 (13)22747% (19)2214.02 (55)#13 (.07)38% (17)36% (9)39% (48)3.03 (10)66.81.21.6



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UK Offense1220.61841.5%3.491.919331146185454%46%47%35%19%.09
TENN Defense1316.19.937.6%3.031.6 - - - - - 48%51%36%39%21%.07
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UK Defense1222.13146%3.441.3 - - - - - 58%42%49%42%17%.16
TENN Offense1335.743.447.4%4.021.2234482272215.157%43%48%47%12%.23

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Kentucky1229:3219.434%44%6.352.11.91.35.61.8227
Tennessee1329:3523.347%61%8.166.81.21.67.22.2231.6
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UK Offense1254% (37)47% (31)36.7146.4411 (116).05 (107)3.02 (71)73% (71)13% (120)0.73 (133)
TENN Defense1348% (42)36% (9) - - - - .01 (17)2.61 (17)62% (15)14% (5)0.98 (65)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UK Defense1258% (129)49% (122) - - - - .14 (75)3 (67)78% (101)12% (32)0.88 (24)
TENN Offense1357% (23)48% (23)44.7226.85.134 (10).18 (39)3.4 (13)86% (2)8% (33)0.87 (115)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UK Offense1246% (97)35% (123)13.926184.87.113.315 (98)17 (127).13 (117)1.9 (10)33% (92)28% (104).18 (114)7% (103)2.1 (46)
TENN Defense1351% (87)39% (48) - - - - - - 12 (39).16 (32)1.5 (38)33% (46)31% (74).33 (80)7% (39)2 (44)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UK Defense1242% (7)42% (75) - - - - - - 10 (66).19 (46)1.5 (27)29% (109)31% (83).3 (68)5% (95)2 (61)
TENN Offense1343% (111)47% (19)18.228.7221.27.712.221 (51)7 (26).29 (51)1.5 (113)29% (25)34% (41).38 (50)4% (13)1.9 (114)

Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 2.14 #54
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 16.88 #96
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 8.88 #62
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 28% #21
Kentucky's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Kentucky's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.5 #45
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #88
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #26

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Kentucky: 2.14   Tennessee: 21.065

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Kentucky: 5.5   Tennessee: 22.0




Tennessee's Power Ratings
Tennessee's Power Rating: 21.065 #14
Tennessee's Offense Rating: 20.60 #61
Tennessee's Defense Rating: 3.79 #16
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 44 #12
Tennessee's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Tennessee's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 22.0 #9
Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.7 #23
Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 13.5 #6

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 20.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 18
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 31

Kentucky's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Tennessee 32
Kentucky 15


Total Points: 47

Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 35.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.4
Defense: 16.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 9.9

Tennessee's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/02Tennessee28Kentucky18TennesseeTennessee -17.5Kentucky45.5Over
202310/28Kentucky27Tennessee33TennesseeTennessee -4Tennessee50.5Over
202210/29Tennessee44Kentucky6TennesseeTennessee -10.5Tennessee62.5Under
202111/06Kentucky42Tennessee45TennesseeTennessee -1Tennessee57.5Over
202010/17Tennessee7Kentucky34KentuckyTennessee -6.0Kentucky45.5Under
201911/09Kentucky13Tennessee17TennesseeKentucky -2Tennessee42.0Under
201811/10Tennessee24Kentucky7TennesseeKentucky -5Tennessee43.0Under
201710/28Kentucky29Tennessee26KentuckyKentucky -4Tennessee46.0Over
201611/12Tennessee49Kentucky36TennesseeTennessee -10.5Tennessee58.0Over
201510/31Kentucky21Tennessee52TennesseeTennessee -7.5Tennessee60.5Over
201411/15Tennessee50Kentucky16TennesseeTennessee -6.5Tennessee0
201311/30Kentucky14Tennessee27TennesseeTennessee -4Tennessee0
201211/24Tennessee37Kentucky17Tennessee
201111/26Kentucky10Tennessee7Kentucky
201011/27Tennessee24Kentucky14Tennessee
200911/28Kentucky24Tennessee30Tennessee
200811/29Tennessee28Kentucky10Tennessee
200711/24Kentucky50Tennessee52Tennessee
200611/25Tennessee17Kentucky12Tennessee
200511/26Kentucky8Tennessee27Tennessee
200411/27Tennessee37Kentucky31Tennessee
200311/29Kentucky7Tennessee20Tennessee
200111/17Kentucky35Tennessee38Tennessee
200011/17Tennessee59Kentucky20Tennessee
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Tennessee21106 Overs
Kentucky324 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams13 - 114 - 83 - 41 - 4
Road Teams11 - 138 - 44 - 14 - 3

(#54) Kentucky Info
Power Rating: 2.14 #54
Offense Rating: 16.88 #96
Defense Rating: 8.88 #62
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.5 #45
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #88
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #26
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 28% #21
Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.49 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Awful Pass Success 35%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 46%
Good in Scoring Position 3.44 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 49%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Kentucky has lost 3 straight
Kentucky has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 3 (3 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Kentucky Notes
(10/30) UK on quit watch, bad body language past 2 L's
(10/27) Off broken, Haven't scored 21 pts in any SEC game
(10/16) Into UF wk, Stoops 5-8 in last 13 games
(10/13) Bad L (Vandy). Def good, QB v bad, Rgame Ok.
(9/28) Great W over Ole Miss. Rgame stopped, Pass good
(9/28) Run Def is great. Held Ole Miss 92 yds (3.2 ypc)
(9/15) OL/DL great vs UGA. Def good, Off bad, QB bad
(9/9) W/O OC Coen UKs Off has regressed badly twice
(9/8) 44 yds pass, 2 Int in bad L vs S Car. Rgame bad
(9/1) Def perfect vs S Miss. Eff off, QB Brock good start

Kentucky Highlights
Kentucky defense does not give up big plays (#89)

Kentucky Deficiencies
Kentucky has a really bad Offense
Kentucky has a bad TO Margin (#28)
Kentucky throws a Lot of Interceptions (#23)
Kentucky offense is not Explosive (#92)
Kentucky offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#60)
Kentucky pass game is really bad (#130)
Kentucky offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Kentucky has a bad defense (#70)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatTENNUK
OverallOver#17#58
OffenseOff#48#76
DefenseDef#14#57
Special TeamsST#36#28
PassingPass#19#90
RushingRush#18#21
Run BlockRBLK#70#70
Pass BlockPBLK#66#100
Route RunningWR Rt#55#55
TacklingTkl#26#90
Run DefenseR Def#13#90
Pass Rush DefPRush#13#21
Coverage DefCov#19#44

Rematch from Week 10
Tennessee -17.5 (45.5)
Tennessee won vs Kentucky this year (28-18)

Previous Matchups
Tennessee beat Kentucky last year (28-18)
Tennessee beat Kentucky in 2023 (33-27)
Tennessee beat Kentucky in 2022 (44-6)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Neyland Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: UK | TENN
Depth Chart: UK | TENN
Rosters: UK | TENN
(#14) Tennessee Info
Power Rating: 21.065 #14
Offense Rating: 20.60 #61
Defense Rating: 3.79 #16
Overall SP+ Rating: 22.0 #9
Offense SP+ Rating: 33.7 #23
Defense SP+ Rating: 13.5 #6
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 44 #12
Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
Great Offense Success Rate of 47%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.02 PPO
Good Run Success 48%
Great Pass Success 47%
Bad OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 38%
Great in Scoring Position 3.03 PPO
Great Run Def Success 36%
Avg Pass Def Success 39%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Tennessee has won 2 straight
Tennessee has won 4 straight at Home
Record at home: 7 - 0 (4 - 3 - 0 vs Spread)

Tennessee Highlights
Tennessee is Undefeated at Home

Tennessee has Really Good Running Game (#21)
Tennessee offense is efficent (#22)
Tennessee has a top Offensive Line (#61)
Tennessee offense is good on 3rd downs
Tennessee does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#36)

Tennessee has a really good defense (#89)
Tennessee defense is really good in red zone (#124)
Tennessee has a good run defense (#102)
Tennessee Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#111)
Tennessee Defensive Line is very good (#58)
Tennessee Front 7 is disruptive (#76)

Tennessee Deficiencies
Tennessee Commits a Lot of Penalties (#109)
Tennessee offense is not Explosive (#60)


  
Kentucky's OC Bush Hamdan
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brock Vandagriff (Tr)12521857%15931087.3
Cutter Boley265349%338246.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jamarion Wilcox9259026.450
Demie Sumo12958654.522
Gavin Wimsatt (Tr)4918323.724
Brock Vandagriff (Tr)9013101.522
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Dane Key47715215.242
Barion Brown29361312.463
Jay Maclin13313424.183
Demie Sumo2015407.718

View Kentucky's Full Roster
Kentucky's DC Brad White
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamon Dumas-Johnson (Tr)677410
Jordan Lovett631001
Alex Afari Jr.6211211
Zion Childress556162
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
J.J. Weaver317441
Jamon Dumas-Johnson (Tr)677410
Tre'Vonn Rybka345321
Octavious Oxendine205330
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Terhyon Nichols100005
Maxwell Hairston191104
J.Q. Hardaway470003

Tennessee's OC Joey Halzle
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Nico Iamaleava21333464%26161957.8
Gaston Moore162759%201227.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dylan Sampson2581491225.856
DeSean Bishop7445536.153
Nico Iamaleava10936433.331
Peyton Lewis6433935.335
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Dont'E Thornton26661625.486
Bru McCoy39472212.142
Squirrel White34381211.245
Chris Brazzell II (Tr)29333211.553

View Tennessee's Full Roster
Tennessee's DC Tim Banks
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Arion Carter687036
Will Brooks594115
Jermod McCoy (Tr)441007
Jeremiah Telander434111
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
James Pearce Jr.38138101
Omarr Norman-Lott184430
Jaxson Moi (Tr)165201
Tyre West165220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jermod McCoy (Tr)441007
Arion Carter687036
Will Brooks594115