Southern Miss at Kentucky - 2024 Matchup Preview

Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Kentucky Wildcats

Saturday, August 31st 2024 (7:45 PM EDT)
Kentucky -25.5 (50.5) (-5000) Open: -25.5 | 50.5
Kentucky 31 - Southern Miss: 0

Golden Eagles (1 - 11) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Reed Stringer (Int) (13 - 24)
Avg Score : 15 - 38 (11 - 43 on Road)
Record Prediction: 1 - 11 (#132)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Kentucky -33.5 (SP+ UK -31)
Projected Score: USM: 8 - UK: 41 (48)
UK Win prob: 97% | Cover: 53%
USM Travel: 537 miles, 1 hrs behind

Wildcats (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mark Stoops (73 - 65)
Avg Score : 21 - 22 (22 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
USM Players
UK Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Southern Miss's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Southern Miss at Kentucky	+25.5	50.5	L 0 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/7	Southern Miss vs SE Louisiana	-17.5	53.5	W 35 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Southern Miss vs South Florida	+13.0	58.5	L 24 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/21	Southern Miss at Jacksonville State	+6.0	59.5	L 7 - 44	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Southern Miss vs Louisiana	+17.5	57.5	L 13 - 23	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Southern Miss at UL Monroe	+4.5	41.0	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/19	Southern Miss vs Arkansas State	+7.0	57.0	L 28 - 44	O	N
Sat 10/26	Southern Miss at James Madison	+24.0	54.0	L 15 - 32	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Southern Miss vs Marshall	+13.5	53.5	L 3 - 37	U	N
Sat 11/16	Southern Miss at Texas State	+27.5	56.5	L 3 - 58	O	N
Sat 11/23	Southern Miss vs South Alabama	+24.0	54.0	L 14 - 35	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Southern Miss at Troy	+17.5	48.5	L 20 - 52	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Southern Miss's Schedule

Kentucky's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Kentucky vs Southern Miss	-25.5	50.5	W 31 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Kentucky vs South Carolina	-9.5	41.5	L 6 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/14	Kentucky vs Georgia	+24.0	45.0	L 12 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Kentucky vs Ohio	-19.0	42.0	W 41 - 6	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Kentucky at Ole Miss	+15.0	51.5	W 20 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Kentucky vs Vanderbilt	-12.5	44.5	L 13 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/19	Kentucky at Florida	-2.5	42.5	L 20 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/26	Kentucky vs Auburn	-2.0	43.5	L 10 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/2	Kentucky at Tennessee	+17.5	45.5	L 18 - 28	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Kentucky vs Murray State	-41.5	54.5	W 48 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Kentucky at Texas	+18.5	47.0	L 14 - 31	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Kentucky vs Louisville	+3.5	48.5	L 14 - 41	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USM	#109 (.12)	37% (121)	15.3	40% (106)	2.89 (107)	163	34% (126)	191	3.07 (121)	#105 (.24)	42% (69)	37.8	41% (49)	45% (109)	4.15 (103)	48.2	1.3	1.4
UK	#49 (.22)	40% (93)	20.6	41% (88)	2.79 (118)	128	40% (83)	212	4.46 (23)	#50 (.16)	43% (87)	22.1	42% (56)	45% (116)	3.95 (84)	50.8	1.5	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USM		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UK		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USM Offense	12	15.3	11	36.7%	3.07	1.3	20	354	163	191	4	53%	46%	40%	34%	20%	.12
UK Defense	13	22.1	17.6	43.3%	3.95	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	48%	51%	42%	45%	14%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USM Defense	12	37.8	42.5	42.2%	4.15	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	41%	45%	16%	.24
UK Offense	13	20.6	21.9	40%	4.46	1.5	17	339	128	212	4.9	43%	55%	41%	40%	18%	.22

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Southern Miss	12	33:15	20.3	38%	44%	6.3	48.2	1.3	1.4	4.5	2.1	2	28
Kentucky	13	27:34	16.9	38%	20%	6.1	50.8	1.5	1.4	5.5	2	6	29.3

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USM Offense	12	53% (41)	40% (106)	40.5	163.4	4	16 (89)	.13 (80)	2.89 (107)	67% (109)	12% (109)	1.11 (19)
UK Defense	13	48% (46)	42% (56)	-	-	-	-	.1 (40)	2.87 (29)	70% (48)	10% (75)	0.87 (18)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USM Defense	12	53% (106)	41% (49)	-	-	-	-	.22 (109)	3.21 (94)	67% (30)	10% (76)	1.24 (129)
UK Offense	13	43% (108)	41% (88)	26.1	127.7	4.9	18 (77)	.15 (71)	2.79 (118)	68% (106)	11% (79)	1.12 (17)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USM Offense	12	46% (92)	34% (126)	15.7	30.4	190.7	6.3	12.2	15 (96)	8 (30)	.14 (114)	1.7 (26)	36% (126)	28% (87)	.34 (67)	8% (117)	2.1 (49)
UK Defense	13	51% (92)	45% (116)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.23 (45)	1.4 (11)	31% (76)	30% (70)	.39 (104)	5% (114)	2.1 (75)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USM Defense	12	46% (27)	45% (109)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.32 (101)	1.7 (101)	31% (93)	33% (103)	.4 (106)	6% (63)	2.3 (123)
UK Offense	13	55% (26)	40% (83)	16.2	28.8	211.6	7.4	13	25 (37)	11 (68)	.32 (54)	1.7 (25)	35% (114)	28% (88)	.31 (77)	8% (113)	2.2 (19)

Southern Miss's Power Ratings
Southern Miss's Power Rating: -29.09 #133
Southern Miss's Offense Rating: 7.03 #134
Southern Miss's Defense Rating: 18.37 #125
2024 Talent Rating: 452.00 #111
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Southern Miss's 2024 Expected Record: 1.0 - 11.0
Southern Miss's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -25.6 #133
Southern Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 14.4 #130
Southern Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 39.4 #128

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 471.71
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Southern Miss: -29.09 Kentucky: 6.32

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Southern Miss: -25.6 Kentucky: 5.5

Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 6.32 #54
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 16.88 #96
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 8.88 #62
2024 Talent Rating: 830.00 #26
Blue Chip Ratio: 28 #21
Kentucky's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Kentucky's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.5 #45
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #88
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #26

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 901
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Southern Miss Scoring
Offense: 15.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 11
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 42.5

Southern Miss's 2024 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0

Projected Score
Kentucky 41
Southern Miss 8

Projected Total Points: 48

Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 20.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.9
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.6

Kentucky's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	08/31	Kentucky	31	Southern Miss	0	Kentucky	Kentucky -25.5	Kentucky	50.5	Under
2017	09/02	Southern Miss	17	Kentucky	24	Kentucky	Kentucky -10	Southern Miss	57.0	Under
2016	09/03	Kentucky	35	Southern Miss	44	Southern Miss	Kentucky -7.5	Southern Miss	62.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Kentucky	2	1	1 Overs
Southern Miss	1	2	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 2	2 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 0
Road Teams	2 - 1	1 - 2	0 - 1	1 - 1

(#133) Southern Miss Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -29.09 #133
Offense Rating: 7.03 #134
Defense Rating: 18.37 #125
Overall SP+ Rating: -25.6 #133
Offense SP+ Rating: 14.4 #130
Defense SP+ Rating: 39.4 #128
Talent Rating: 452.00 #111
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Expected Record: 1.0 - 11.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 35%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 2.75 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Awful Pass Success 30%
Poor OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 44%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.17 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 45%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Southern Miss Notes
(11/25) Off awful vs S. Al, worst team in SBC
(11/18) Has to be worst Off in CFB. 3 pts in 2 straight L's
(10/22) Def stop rate 42% (#126) into week 9
(10/20) HC Will Hall fired, GM Reed Stringer Int?
(10/12) QB Crawford abysmal, Def torched in L (UL Mon)
(10/4) Def awful (B 10)/Off getting worse. Staff big trouble
(9/14) Allowed 369 yds rushing to S Fla. Rgame awful
(9/11) Worst Rgame in CFB to date. 36% suc, 39% stuffed
(9/1) Miserable L @ UK. Lucky game called. No Off
(7/30) QB Rodemaker (FSU) leads lots of SEC transfers

Southern Miss Ratings Matchup Kentucky

Power #133

#54

Off #134

#96

Def #125

#62

Talent #111

#26

SP+ #133

#45

SP+ Off #130

#88

SP+ Def #128

#26

Rematch from Week 1
Kentucky -25.5 (50.5)
Kentucky won vs Southern Miss this year (31-0)

Previous Matchups
Kentucky beat Southern Miss last year (31-0)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Commonwealth Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 82° - Wind: 6 mph

Team Information
Injuries: USM | UK
Depth Chart: USM | UK
Rosters: USM | UK

(#54) Kentucky Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 6.32 #54
Offense Rating: 16.88 #96
Defense Rating: 8.88 #62
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.5 #45
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #88
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #26
Talent Rating: 830.00 #26
Blue Chip Ratio: 28 #21
Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.49 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Awful Pass Success 35%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 46%
Good in Scoring Position 3.44 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 49%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Kentucky Notes
(10/30) UK on quit watch, bad body language past 2 L's
(10/27) Off broken, Haven't scored 21 pts in any SEC game
(10/16) Into UF wk, Stoops 5-8 in last 13 games
(10/13) Bad L (Vandy). Def good, QB v bad, Rgame Ok.
(9/28) Great W over Ole Miss. Rgame stopped, Pass good
(9/28) Run Def is great. Held Ole Miss 92 yds (3.2 ypc)
(9/15) OL/DL great vs UGA. Def good, Off bad, QB bad
(9/9) W/O OC Coen UKs Off has regressed badly twice
(9/8) 44 yds pass, 2 Int in bad L vs S Car. Rgame bad
(9/1) Def perfect vs S Miss. Eff off, QB Brock good start

Southern Miss's OC Chip Long

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tate Rodemaker (Tr)	98	165	59%	985	7	7	6.0
Ethan Crawford	50	120	42%	849	0	7	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kenyon Clay	84	387	7	4.6	70
Ethan Crawford	97	209	3	2.2	21
Jalen Washington	26	118	1	4.5	14
JQ Gray	32	106	0	3.3	19

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Larry Simmons (Tr)	27	421	1	15.6	75
Tiaquelin Mims	33	393	1	11.9	56
Kenyon Clay	21	225	1	10.7	37
Kyirin Heath (Tr)	15	210	2	14.0	34

View Southern Miss's Full Roster

Southern Miss's DC Clay Bignell

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tre Pinkney (Tr)	74	5	1	2	0
Chris Jones	46	3	1	0	1
Ja'Len Sims	45	5	1	1	3
Desmyn Baker (Tr)	42	2	2	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brodarius Lewis	39	8	4	0	0
Ryan Johnson (Tr)	23	4	3	9	0
Jameer Lewis	24	5	2	5	1
Desmyn Baker (Tr)	42	2	2	1	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Will James (Tr)	35	2	0	0	7
Ques McNeal	29	2	0	0	4
Ja'Len Sims	45	5	1	1	3

Kentucky's OC Bush Hamdan

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brock Vandagriff (Tr)	125	218	57%	1593	10	8	7.3
Cutter Boley	26	53	49%	338	2	4	6.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jamarion Wilcox	92	590	2	6.4	50
Gavin Wimsatt (Tr)	49	183	2	3.7	24
Brock Vandagriff (Tr)	90	131	0	1.5	22
Jason Patterson	20	111	0	5.6	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dane Key	47	715	2	15.2	42
Barion Brown	29	361	3	12.4	63
Jay Maclin	13	313	4	24.1	83
Hardley Gilmore IV	6	153	1	25.5	52

View Kentucky's Full Roster

Kentucky's DC Brad White

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jamon Dumas-Johnson (Tr)	67	7	4	1	0
Jordan Lovett	63	1	0	0	1
Alex Afari Jr.	62	11	2	1	1
J.Q. Hardaway	47	0	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jamon Dumas-Johnson (Tr)	67	7	4	1	0
Alex Afari Jr.	62	11	2	1	1
Keeshawn Silver	26	1	1	2	0
Steven Soles Jr.	5	2	1	1	0

Pass D	Tack	PD
Terhyon Nichols	10	5
J.Q. Hardaway	47	3
DJ Waller Jr. (Tr)	13	2