South Alabama at Southern Miss - 2024 Matchup Preview

South Alabama Jaguars at Southern Miss Golden Eagles

Saturday, November 23rd 2024 (3:00 PM EST)
South Alabama -24 (54.0) (-2400) Open: -21.5
South Alabama 35 - Southern Miss: 14 (Sun Belt)

Jaguars (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Major Applewhite (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 27 - 30 (25 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

USA 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: South Alabama -24.5 (SP+ USA -28.5)
Projected Score: USA: 40 - USM: 16 (56)
USA Win prob: 96% | Cover: 57%
USA Travel: 88 miles

Golden Eagles (1 - 11) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Will Hall (13 - 24)
Avg Score : 29 - 27 (31 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 1 - 11 (#132)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
USA Players
USM Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

South Alabama's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	South Alabama vs North Texas	-6.0	61.5	L 38 - 52	O	N
Sat 9/7	South Alabama at Ohio	-1.5	55.5	L 20 - 27	U	N
Thu 9/12	South Alabama vs Northwestern State	-36.5	60.5	W 87 - 10	O	Y
Thu 9/19	South Alabama at App State	+8.0	62.5	W 48 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/28	South Alabama at LSU	+21.0	64.5	L 10 - 42	U	N
Sat 10/5	South Alabama at Arkansas State	-2.5	62.5	L 16 - 18	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/15	South Alabama vs Troy	-10.0	53.0	W 25 - 9	U	Y
Sat 10/26	South Alabama vs UL Monroe	-7.0	45.0	W 46 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/2	South Alabama vs Georgia Southern	-5.5	60.0	L 30 - 34	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	South Alabama at Louisiana	+6.5	60.0	W 24 - 22	U	Y
Sat 11/23	South Alabama at Southern Miss	-24.0	54.0	W 35 - 14	U	N
Fri 11/29	South Alabama vs Texas State	+2.5	60.5	L 38 - 45	O	N
Sat 12/14	South Alabama vs Western Michigan	-6.0	53.5	W 30 - 23	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for South Alabama's Schedule

Southern Miss's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Southern Miss at Kentucky	+25.5	50.5	L 0 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/7	Southern Miss vs SE Louisiana	-17.5	53.5	W 35 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Southern Miss vs South Florida	+13.0	58.5	L 24 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/21	Southern Miss at Jacksonville State	+6.0	59.5	L 7 - 44	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Southern Miss vs Louisiana	+17.5	57.5	L 13 - 23	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Southern Miss at UL Monroe	+4.5	41.0	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/19	Southern Miss vs Arkansas State	+7.0	57.0	L 28 - 44	O	N
Sat 10/26	Southern Miss at James Madison	+24.0	54.0	L 15 - 32	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Southern Miss vs Marshall	+13.5	53.5	L 3 - 37	U	N
Sat 11/16	Southern Miss at Texas State	+27.5	56.5	L 3 - 58	O	N
Sat 11/23	Southern Miss vs South Alabama	+24.0	54.0	L 14 - 35	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Southern Miss at Troy	+17.5	48.5	L 20 - 52	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USA	#31 (.28)	43% (57)	26.5	42% (80)	3.24 (44)	172	45% (35)	268	4.67 (15)	#34 (.14)	37% (17)	30.4	35% (8)	40% (44)	3.32 (21)	57.7	1.5	1.7
USM	#109 (.12)	37% (121)	28.8	40% (106)	2.89 (107)	163	34% (126)	191	3.07 (121)	#105 (.24)	42% (69)	27.4	41% (49)	45% (109)	4.15 (103)	48.2	1.3	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
USM		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USA Offense	13	26.5	25.2	43%	4.67	1.5	23	440	172	268	4.8	48%	51%	42%	45%	15%	.28
USM Defense	12	27.4	27.3	42.2%	4.15	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	41%	45%	16%	.24

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USA Defense	13	30.4	32	36.6%	3.32	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	35%	40%	16%	.14
USM Offense	12	28.8	30.9	36.7%	3.07	1.3	20	354	163	191	4	53%	46%	40%	34%	20%	.12

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
South Alabama	13	30:30	22.6	43%	63%	6.7	57.7	1.5	1.7	5.8	2	0	31.4
Southern Miss	12	33:15	20.3	38%	44%	6.3	48.2	1.3	1.4	4.5	2.1	2	28

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USA Offense	13	48% (81)	42% (80)	36	171.9	4.8	28 (25)	.18 (49)	3.24 (44)	74% (71)	10% (76)	1.18 (6)
USM Defense	12	53% (106)	41% (49)	-	-	-	-	.22 (109)	3.21 (94)	67% (30)	10% (76)	1.24 (129)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USA Defense	13	54% (116)	35% (8)	-	-	-	-	-.01 (12)	2.69 (14)	74% (74)	11% (33)	0.9 (27)
USM Offense	12	53% (41)	40% (106)	40.5	163.4	4	16 (89)	.13 (80)	2.89 (107)	67% (109)	12% (109)	1.11 (19)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USA Offense	13	51% (55)	45% (35)	22.4	32.9	268.2	8.1	12	28 (23)	11 (68)	.41 (26)	1.7 (34)	34% (104)	39% (8)	.59 (7)	5% (27)	2.2 (34)
USM Defense	12	46% (27)	45% (109)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.32 (101)	1.7 (101)	31% (93)	33% (103)	.4 (106)	6% (63)	2.3 (123)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USA Defense	13	45% (19)	40% (44)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.36 (109)	1.8 (124)	36% (12)	27% (29)	.28 (47)	5% (106)	2.2 (104)
USM Offense	12	46% (92)	34% (126)	15.7	30.4	190.7	6.3	12.2	15 (96)	8 (30)	.14 (114)	1.7 (26)	36% (126)	28% (87)	.34 (67)	8% (117)	2.1 (49)

South Alabama's Power Ratings
South Alabama's Power Rating: -3.64 #76
South Alabama's Offense Rating: 25.69 #16
South Alabama's Defense Rating: 10.70 #78
2024 Talent Rating: 251.00 #95
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
South Alabama's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
South Alabama's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.8 #61
South Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #47
South Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.9 #71

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 235.21
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: -3.64 Southern Miss: -24.845

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: 2.8 Southern Miss: -25.6

Southern Miss's Power Ratings
Southern Miss's Power Rating: -24.845 #133
Southern Miss's Offense Rating: 7.03 #134
Southern Miss's Defense Rating: 18.37 #125
2024 Talent Rating: 222.00 #110
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Southern Miss's 2024 Expected Record: 1.0 - 11.0
Southern Miss's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -25.6 #133
Southern Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 14.4 #130
Southern Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 39.4 #128

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 235.21
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

South Alabama Scoring
Offense: 26.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.2
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 32

South Alabama's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
South Alabama 40
Southern Miss 16

Projected Total Points: 56

Southern Miss Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.9
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.3

Southern Miss's 2024 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/22	South Alabama	42	Southern Miss	35	Southern Miss -2.5	South Alabama	53.0	Over
2024	11/23	Southern Miss	14	South Alabama	35	South Alabama -24	Southern Miss	54.0	Under
2023	10/17	South Alabama	55	Southern Miss	3	South Alabama -18.5	South Alabama	51.0	Over
2022	11/19	Southern Miss	20	South Alabama	27	South Alabama -7.5	Southern Miss	45.0	Over
2021	09/04	South Alabama	31	Southern Miss	7	South Alabama -2	South Alabama	56.5	Under
2020	09/03	Southern Miss	21	South Alabama	32	Southern Mississippi -12.5	South Alabama	55.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Southern Miss	0	2	3 Overs
South Alabama	6	4	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 3	5 - 1	2 - 1	3 - 0
Road Teams	3 - 3	1 - 5	0 - 3	1 - 2

(#76) USA at (#133) USM

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USA	USM
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#76	#133
SP+SP+	#61	#133
Perf GradeGrade	#59	#134
OffenseOff	#61	#134
DefenseDef	#65	#123
Spec TeamsST	#111	#88
TalentTal	#95	#110
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#102

South Alabama Notes(12/15) Rgame 267/7.2 ypc in bowl W over WMU
(12/15) Great QB depth, backup Davenport can run/throw
(11/29) Def torched, gave up 3 TOs, OG'd by 160 by T St
(11/25) Rgame good, Lopez 3 TD over awful So Miss
(11/18) Huge W @ ULL, QB good, Def barely held on
(11/3) 450+ yds but 2 TOs cost badly in GaSo loss
(10/27) Rgame great (ULM), 358 yds, 7.8 ypc. Run D bad
(10/16) Avg 17 ppg last 3 games, stopped Troy, NBD
(10/4) Off great, Def v bad. High totals keep going under
(9/19) QB Lopez dynamic, FR RB Bothwell is a weapon
(9/8) QB Lopez (toe) DNP in L at Ohio
(9/8) Bad Ls vs N Tex & Ohio. QBs OK, D bad so far
South Alabama Injury Report

Southern Miss Notes(12/10) Hired HC C Huff (Marshall HC last 6 years)
(11/25) Off awful vs S. Al, worst team in SBC
(11/18) Has to be worst Off in CFB. 3 pts in 2 straight L's
(10/22) Def stop rate 42% (#126) into week 9
(10/20) HC Will Hall fired, GM Reed Stringer Int?
(10/12) QB Crawford abysmal, Def torched in L (UL Mon)
(10/4) Def awful (B 10)/Off getting worse. Staff big trouble
(9/14) Allowed 369 yds rushing to S Fla. Rgame awful
(9/11) Worst Rgame in CFB to date. 36% suc, 39% stuffed
(9/1) Miserable L @ UK. Lucky game called. No Off
(7/30) QB Rodemaker (FSU) leads lots of SEC transfers
(7/30) New OC Chip Long (ND), DC Bignell (ND Analyst)
Southern Miss Injury Report

South Alabama on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	USA Off	USM Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#61	#123
SuccessSuc	#57	#69
ExplosiveExp	#6	#125
PPAPPA	#31	#105
PowerPwr	#16	#125
SP+SP+	#47	#128
Pts POPPO	#15	#103
HavocHav	#61	#73

South Alabama Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	USA Off	USM Def
Run GameRun	#3	#125
Run SuccessRSuc	#80	#49
Run ExplRExp	#6	#129
PPAExp	#49	#109
Run BlockR Blk	#119	-
OL YdsOLY	#44	#94
Stuff RateStuff	#14	#82
TackleTak	-	#135

South Alabama Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	USA Off	USM Def
Pass GamePass	#84	#125
Pass SuccessPSuc	#35	#109
Pass ExplPExl	#34	#101
PPAExp	#26	#101
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#39	#62
F7 HavocF7	#76	#76
DB HavocDB	#27	#63

Southern Miss on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	USM Off	USA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#134	#65
SuccessSuc	#121	#17
ExplosiveExp	#24	#98
PPAPPA	#109	#34
PowerPwr	#134	#78
SP+SP+	#130	#71
Pts POPPO	#121	#21
HavocHav	#117	#65

Southern Miss Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	USM Off	USA Def
Run GameRun	#98	#45
Run SuccessRSuc	#106	#8
Run ExplRExp	#19	#27
PPAExp	#80	#12
Run BlockR Blk	#134	-
OL YdsOLY	#107	#14
Stuff RateStuff	#109	#52
TackleTak	-	#118

Southern Miss Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	USM Off	USA Def
Pass GamePass	#127	#50
Pass SuccessPSuc	#126	#44
Pass ExplPExl	#26	#124
PPAExp	#114	#109
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#105	#109
F7 HavocF7	#109	#33
DB HavocDB	#117	#106

Program Comparison
USM 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Up to Poor G5

USA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'24 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in M. M. Roberts Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 13
South Alabama 24.0 (54.0)
South Alabama won at Southern Miss this year (35-14)

Previous Matchups
South Alabama beat Southern Miss last year (42-35)
South Alabama beat Southern Miss in 2024 (35-14)
South Alabama beat Southern Miss in 2023 (55-3)

USA's OC Rob Ezell (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Giovanni Lopez	205	311	66%	2557	18	5	8.2
Bishop Davenport	48	79	61%	604	3	1	7.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Fluff Bothwell	112	834	13	7.4	59
Kentrel Bullock	152	832	7	5.5	59
Giovanni Lopez	82	465	7	5.7	50
Bishop Davenport	37	161	1	4.4	50

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jamaal Pritchett	91	1126	9	12.4	75
Jeremiah Webb	36	649	5	18.0	52
Devin Voisin	34	407	0	12.0	28
Shamar Sandgren	19	208	1	10.9	21

View South Alabama's Full Roster

USA's DC Will Windham (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Blayne Myrick	101	8	2	3	2
Jaden Voisin	84	4	0	3	5
Darius McKenzie (Tr)	72	4	1	0	4
Jordan Scruggs	70	5	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Courtney McBride	39	11	5	3	0
Parker Shattuck	11	3	3	0	1
Tyler Thomas	19	4	3	0	0
Jordan Norman	25	4	3	2	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Amarion Fortenberry	43	2	0	0	6
Jaden Voisin	84	4	0	3	5
Darius McKenzie (Tr)	72	4	1	0	4

USM's OC Chip Long (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tate Rodemaker (Tr)	98	165	59%	985	7	7	6.0
Ethan Crawford	50	120	42%	849	0	7	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rodrigues Clark	124	604	1	4.9	54
Kenyon Clay	84	387	7	4.6	70
Ethan Crawford	97	209	3	2.2	21
Jalen Washington	26	118	1	4.5	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Larry Simmons (Tr)	27	421	1	15.6	75
Tiaquelin Mims	33	393	1	11.9	56
Kenyon Clay	21	225	1	10.7	37
Kyirin Heath (Tr)	15	210	2	14.0	34

View Southern Miss's Full Roster

USM's DC Clay Bignell (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tre Pinkney (Tr)	74	5	1	2	0
Jay Jones	46	3	0	3	3
Chris Jones	46	3	1	0	1
Ja'Len Sims	45	5	1	1	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brodarius Lewis	39	8	4	0	0
Ryan Johnson (Tr)	23	4	3	9	0
Jalil Clemons	34	7	3	3	0
Jameer Lewis	24	5	2	5	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Will James (Tr)	35	2	0	0	7
Ques McNeal	29	2	0	0	4
Ja'Len Sims	45	5	1	1	3