Tulsa at Northern Illinois - 2023 Matchup Preview

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Northern Illinois Huskies

Saturday, September 23rd 2023 (12:00 PM EDT)
Northern Illinois -3.5 (54.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Tulsa 22 - Northern Illinois: 14

Golden Hurricane (4 - 8) (5 - 6 - 1)
Coach Kevin Wilson (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 23 - 34 (18 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.7 - 7.3 (#103)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

NIU is playing their 4th straight game
TLSA is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Northern Illinois -9.5 (SP+ NIU -8)
Projected Score: TLSA: 20 - NIU: 30 (50)
NIU Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
TLSA Travel: 554 miles

Huskies (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Thomas Hammock (18 - 29)
Avg Score : 25 - 21 (18 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.2 - 4.8 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TLSA Players
NIU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Tulsa's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	Tulsa vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff	-41.0	52.5	W 42 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/9	Tulsa at Washington	+34.0	66.5	L 10 - 43	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Tulsa vs Oklahoma	+28.0	58.5	L 17 - 66	O	N
Sat 9/23	Tulsa at Northern Illinois	+3.5	54.5	W 22 - 14	U	Y
Thu 9/28	Tulsa vs Temple	-3.0	56.0	W 48 - 26	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Tulsa at Florida Atlantic	+3.0	54.5	L 17 - 20	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/19	Tulsa vs Rice	-3.0	56.5	L 10 - 42	U	N
Sat 10/28	Tulsa at SMU	+20.5	55.0	L 10 - 69	O	N
Sat 11/4	Tulsa vs Charlotte	-4.5	47.5	L 26 - 33	O	N
Sat 11/11	Tulsa at Tulane	+24.5	52.5	L 22 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Tulsa vs North Texas	+1.5	69.5	L 28 - 35	U	N
Sat 11/25	Tulsa at East Carolina	+4.5	44.5	W 29 - 27	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Tulsa's Schedule

Northern Illinois's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Northern Illinois at Boston College	+8.0	50.0	W 27 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Northern Illinois vs Southern Illinois	-6.5	58.5	L 11 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/16	Northern Illinois at Nebraska	+11.5	42.5	L 11 - 35	O	N
Sat 9/23	Northern Illinois vs Tulsa	-3.5	54.5	L 14 - 22	U	N
Sat 9/30	Northern Illinois at Toledo	+13.0	48.0	L 33 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Northern Illinois at Akron	-4.0	42.5	W 55 - 14	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Northern Illinois vs Ohio	+5.5	45.0	W 23 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Northern Illinois vs Eastern Michigan	-11.5	43.5	W 20 - 13	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/31	Northern Illinois at Central Michigan	-3.0	48.0	L 31 - 37	O	N
Tue 11/7	Northern Illinois vs Ball State	-9.5	43.5	L 17 - 20	U	N
Tue 11/14	Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan	-4.5	55.5	W 24 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Northern Illinois at Kent State	-20.5	44.5	W 37 - 27	O	N
Sat 12/23	Northern Illinois vs Arkansas State	+2.5	54.0	W 21 - 19	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TLSA	#77 (.18)	41% (83)	23.4	40% (99)	3.16 (59)	181	44% (50)	205	4.23 (34)	#120 (.29)	44% (96)	33.8	43% (67)	46% (121)	3.95 (82)	43.3	2	1.7
NIU	#54 (.21)	42% (62)	24.9	45% (45)	3.21 (50)	180	40% (85)	190	3.4 (102)	#36 (.14)	41% (52)	21	44% (84)	37% (21)	3.4 (32)	39.8	1.4	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TLSA	#124 (.06)	34% (131)		35% (128)	2.88 (97)	151	33% (126)	239	3.54 (100)	#127 (.31)	42% (75)		38% (23)	46% (115)	4.7 (130)	51	1.9	1.3
NIU	#86 (.16)	42% (79)		44% (72)	3.25 (33)	204	40% (86)	179	3.39 (113)	#11 (.06)	38% (19)		41% (52)	35% (9)	3.08 (12)	42.8	1.2	1.1

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TLSA Offense	12	23.4	18.3	41%	4.23	2	20	386	181	205	4.1	57%	41%	40%	44%	17%	.18
NIU Defense	13	21	13.7	40.7%	3.4	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	56%	43%	44%	37%	13%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TLSA Defense	12	33.8	32.8	43.9%	3.95	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	47%	51%	43%	46%	14%	.29
NIU Offense	13	24.9	18.2	42.4%	3.4	1.4	19	370	180	190	5	54%	46%	45%	40%	15%	.21

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Tulsa	12	29:42	19.8	45%	44%	5.1	43.3	2	1.7	5.4	1.8	0	28.1
Northern Illinois	13	31:30	18.7	42%	50%	4.5	39.8	1.4	1.2	4.1	1.7	1	27.5

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TLSA Offense	12	57% (16)	40% (99)	43.9	180.9	4.1	13 (108)	.1 (96)	3.16 (59)	79% (27)	11% (87)	0.88 (120)
NIU Defense	13	56% (122)	44% (84)	-	-	-	-	.14 (69)	3.29 (108)	83% (118)	8% (114)	0.94 (37)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TLSA Defense	12	47% (37)	43% (67)	-	-	-	-	.21 (107)	3.18 (89)	67% (30)	10% (74)	1.13 (115)
NIU Offense	13	54% (39)	45% (45)	35.8	179.8	5	23 (46)	.21 (36)	3.21 (50)	77% (36)	9% (47)	1.08 (29)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TLSA Offense	12	41% (118)	44% (50)	15.8	27.8	204.7	7.4	12.9	20 (70)	19 (131)	.36 (37)	1.8 (13)	34% (95)	32% (57)	.33 (68)	6% (73)	2.1 (66)
NIU Defense	13	43% (12)	37% (21)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.17 (18)	1.4 (14)	32% (66)	24% (9)	.29 (55)	5% (115)	2.2 (109)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TLSA Defense	12	51% (89)	46% (121)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.43 (124)	1.7 (100)	30% (103)	29% (43)	.41 (111)	5% (113)	2.6 (133)
NIU Offense	13	46% (95)	40% (85)	16.2	28.2	189.8	6.7	11.7	15 (96)	9 (40)	.26 (75)	1.5 (96)	32% (64)	26% (106)	.29 (83)	6% (63)	2.3 (16)

Tulsa's Power Ratings
Tulsa's Power Rating: -8.35 #111
Tulsa's Offense Rating: 16.07 #70
Tulsa's Defense Rating: 13.36 #105
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Tulsa's 2023 Expected Record: 4.70 - 7.30
Tulsa's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.2 #115
Tulsa's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #100
Tulsa's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.0 #117

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Tulsa: -8.35 Northern Illinois: -1.73

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Tulsa: -14.2 Northern Illinois: -6.7

Northern Illinois's Power Ratings
Northern Illinois's Power Rating: -1.73 #74
Northern Illinois's Offense Rating: 17.02 #61
Northern Illinois's Defense Rating: 8.15 #48
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Northern Illinois's 2023 Expected Record: 8.20 - 4.80
Northern Illinois's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.7 #85
Northern Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.4 #109
Northern Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #47

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Tulsa Scoring
Offense: 23.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.3
Defense: 33.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Tulsa's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Northern Illinois 30
Tulsa 20

Total Points: 50

Based on Last 4 Games
Northern Illinois 25
Tulsa 22

Total Points: 47

Based on Entire Season
Northern Illinois 27
Tulsa 19

Total Points: 46

Northern Illinois Scoring
Offense: 24.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 18.2
Defense: 21 PPG
Defense at Home: 13.7

Northern Illinois's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/23	Northern Illinois	14	Tulsa	22	Northern Illinois -3.5	Tulsa	54.5	Under
2022	09/10	Tulsa	38	Northern Illinois	35	Tulsa -6.5	Northern Illinois	63.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Northern Illinois	0	1	1 Overs
Tulsa	2	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 1	0 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 1	2 - 0	0 - 0	2 - 0

(#111) TLSA at (#74) NIU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TLSA	NIU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#111	#74
SP+SP+	#115	#85
Perf GradeGrade	#95	#82
OffenseOff	#51	#78
DefenseDef	#124	#64
Spec TeamsST	#133	#119
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Tulsa Injury Report

Northern Illinois Injury Report

Tulsa on Offense


CategoryCat	TLSA Off	NIU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#51	#64
SuccessSuc	#83	#52
ExplosiveExp	#77	#5
PPAPPA	#77	#36
PowerPwr	#70	#48
SP+SP+	#100	#47
Pts POPPO	#34	#32
HavocHav	#87	#120

Tulsa Run Game


CategoryCat	TLSA Off	NIU Def
Run GameRun	#63	#67
Run SuccessRSuc	#99	#84
Run ExplRExp	#120	#37
PPAExp	#96	#69
Run BlockR Blk	#52	-
OL YdsOLY	#59	#108
Stuff RateStuff	#22	#125
TackleTak	-	#60

Tulsa Pass Game


CategoryCat	TLSA Off	NIU Def
Pass GamePass	#87	#75
Pass SuccessPSuc	#50	#21
Pass ExplPExl	#13	#14
PPAExp	#37	#18
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#50	#92
F7 HavocF7	#87	#114
DB HavocDB	#73	#115

Northern Illinois on Offense


CategoryCat	NIU Off	TLSA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#78	#124
SuccessSuc	#62	#96
ExplosiveExp	#84	#123
PPAPPA	#54	#120
PowerPwr	#61	#105
SP+SP+	#109	#117
Pts POPPO	#102	#82
HavocHav	#50	#108

Northern Illinois Run Game


CategoryCat	NIU Off	TLSA Def
Run GameRun	#83	#123
Run SuccessRSuc	#45	#67
Run ExplRExp	#29	#115
PPAExp	#36	#107
Run BlockR Blk	#56	-
OL YdsOLY	#50	#89
Stuff RateStuff	#63	#69
TackleTak	-	#132

Northern Illinois Pass Game


CategoryCat	NIU Off	TLSA Def
Pass GamePass	#87	#132
Pass SuccessPSuc	#85	#121
Pass ExplPExl	#96	#100
PPAExp	#75	#124
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#31	#18
F7 HavocF7	#47	#74
DB HavocDB	#63	#113

Program Comparison
NIU 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Up to Average G5

TLSA 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'23 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Brigham Field at Huskie Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 77° - Wind: 10 mph

Rematch from Week 4
Northern Illinois -3.5 (54.5)
Tulsa won at Northern Illinois this year (22-14)

Previous Matchups
Tulsa beat Northern Illinois in 2023 (22-14)
Tulsa beat Northern Illinois in 2022 (38-35)

TLSA's OC Steve Spurrier Jr. (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Cardell Williams	79	132	60%	1149	10	7	8.7
Kirk Francis	68	121	56%	967	6	3	8.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Anthony Watkins	197	889	4	4.5	46
Bill Jackson	91	414	1	4.5	38
Jordan Ford	78	294	1	3.8	22
Cardell Williams	57	200	5	3.5	50

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kamdyn Benjamin	47	727	6	15.5	51
Carl Chester	22	401	1	18.2	57
Devan Williams	29	399	2	13.8	42
Marquis Shoulders	16	283	5	17.7	80

View Tulsa's Full Roster

TLSA's DC Chris Polizzi (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kendarin Ray (Tr)	131	4	0	1	1
Julien Simon (Tr)	58	10	3	1	2
Dayne Hodge	56	2	0	0	0
Ben Kopenski	52	14	9	4	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ben Kopenski	52	14	9	4	0
Owen Ostroski	31	10	4	3	0
Julien Simon (Tr)	58	10	3	1	2
Mitchell Kulkin	39	3	2	4	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Jaise Oliver	48	2	6
Xavier Lanier	15	0	4
Nunu Campbell	23	0	3

NIU's OC Eric Eidsness (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Rocky Lombardi	189	327	58%	2274	11	7	7.0
Ethan Hampton	19	33	58%	147	2	2	4.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Antario Brown	212	1294	10	6.1	80
Gavin Williams (Tr)	95	488	3	5.1	53
Trayvon Rudolph	22	182	1	8.3	36
Rocky Lombardi	72	131	7	1.8	33

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Trayvon Rudolph	51	531	2	10.4	72
Grayson Barnes	23	422	5	18.3	58
Kacper Rutkiewicz	20	313	2	15.7	64
Davis Patterson	16	197	0	12.3	28

View Northern Illinois's Full Roster

NIU's DC Nick Benedetto (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Raishein Thomas	74	7	3	5	1
Jaden Dolphin	63	1	0	0	3
Tyler Jackson	56	2	0	2	0
DaRon Gilbert	52	3	1	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
James Ester	44	6	4	3	2
Roy Williams	24	6	4	1	1
George Gumbs	34	8	4	2	0
Devonte O'Malley	33	5	3	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Jashon Prophete	33	1	8
Javaughn Byrd	32	2	5
Jacob Finley	33	1	3