Ball State at Northern Illinois - 2023 Matchup Preview

Ball State Cardinals at Northern Illinois Huskies

Tuesday, November 7th 2023 (7:00 PM EST)
Northern Illinois -9.5 (43.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Ball State 20 - Northern Illinois: 17 (Mid-American)

Cardinals (4 - 8) (7 - 4 - 1)
Coach Mike Neu (34 - 50)
Avg Score : 18 - 24 (15 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.4 - 6.6 (#89)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 13.7 MPH
BALL 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: Northern Illinois -10 (SP+ NIU -8)
Projected Score: BALL: 16 - NIU: 26 (42)
NIU Win prob: 79% | Cover: 55%
BALL Travel: 212 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Huskies (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Thomas Hammock (18 - 29)
Avg Score : 25 - 21 (18 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.2 - 4.8 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BALL Players
NIU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Ball State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Ball State at Kentucky	+25.0	49.0	L 14 - 44	O	N
Sat 9/9	Ball State at Georgia	+42.0	52.5	L 3 - 45	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Ball State vs Indiana State	-26.0	45.0	W 45 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Ball State vs Georgia Southern	+6.0	60.0	L 3 - 40	U	N
Sat 9/30	Ball State at Western Michigan	+1.5	50.0	L 24 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/7	Ball State at Eastern Michigan	+2.5	43.5	L 10 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/14	Ball State vs Toledo	+17.5	48.5	L 6 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Ball State vs Central Michigan	+5.0	42.0	W 24 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/1	Ball State at Bowling Green	+4.5	39.5	L 21 - 24	O	Y
Tue 11/7	Ball State at Northern Illinois	+9.5	43.5	W 20 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Ball State vs Kent State	-10.5	41.5	W 34 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Ball State vs Miami (OH)	+3.5	34.5	L 15 - 17	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Ball State's Schedule

Northern Illinois's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Northern Illinois at Boston College	+8.0	50.0	W 27 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Northern Illinois vs Southern Illinois	-6.5	58.5	L 11 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/16	Northern Illinois at Nebraska	+11.5	42.5	L 11 - 35	O	N
Sat 9/23	Northern Illinois vs Tulsa	-3.5	54.5	L 14 - 22	U	N
Sat 9/30	Northern Illinois at Toledo	+13.0	48.0	L 33 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Northern Illinois at Akron	-4.0	42.5	W 55 - 14	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Northern Illinois vs Ohio	+5.5	45.0	W 23 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Northern Illinois vs Eastern Michigan	-11.5	43.5	W 20 - 13	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/31	Northern Illinois at Central Michigan	-3.0	48.0	L 31 - 37	O	N
Tue 11/7	Northern Illinois vs Ball State	-9.5	43.5	L 17 - 20	U	N
Tue 11/14	Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan	-4.5	55.5	W 24 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Northern Illinois at Kent State	-20.5	44.5	W 37 - 27	O	N
Sat 12/23	Northern Illinois vs Arkansas State	+2.5	54.0	W 21 - 19	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BALL	#97 (.14)	40% (95)	18.3	45% (50)	3.35 (22)	171	33% (127)	137	3.31 (105)	#70 (.18)	42% (66)	24.4	43% (65)	42% (70)	3.81 (70)	45.2	1.3	0.9
NIU	#54 (.21)	42% (62)	24.9	45% (45)	3.21 (50)	180	40% (85)	190	3.4 (102)	#36 (.14)	41% (52)	21	44% (84)	37% (21)	3.4 (32)	39.8	1.4	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BALL	#98 (.14)	42% (78)		44% (70)	3.06 (61)	103	41% (72)	245	3.94 (65)	#128 (.32)	46% (118)		46% (103)	47% (121)	4.81 (133)	45.3	1.2	1.3
NIU	#86 (.16)	42% (79)		44% (72)	3.25 (33)	204	40% (86)	179	3.39 (113)	#11 (.06)	38% (19)		41% (52)	35% (9)	3.08 (12)	42.8	1.2	1.1

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BALL Offense	12	18.3	15.3	39.8%	3.31	1.3	18	308	171	137	4.4	58%	41%	45%	33%	17%	.14
NIU Defense	13	21	13.7	40.7%	3.4	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	56%	43%	44%	37%	13%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BALL Defense	12	24.4	32.7	41.8%	3.81	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	48%	51%	43%	42%	17%	.18
NIU Offense	13	24.9	18.2	42.4%	3.4	1.4	19	370	180	190	5	54%	46%	45%	40%	15%	.21

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Ball State	12	32:44	18.1	38%	56%	5.2	45.2	1.3	0.9	5.7	2.1	0	28.8
Northern Illinois	13	31:30	18.7	42%	50%	4.5	39.8	1.4	1.2	4.1	1.7	1	27.5

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BALL Offense	12	58% (14)	45% (50)	39.3	171.4	4.4	15 (100)	.21 (38)	3.35 (22)	83% (8)	12% (112)	0.99 (70)
NIU Defense	13	56% (122)	44% (84)	-	-	-	-	.14 (69)	3.29 (108)	83% (118)	8% (114)	0.94 (37)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BALL Defense	12	48% (44)	43% (65)	-	-	-	-	.11 (45)	3.08 (62)	79% (102)	11% (35)	0.89 (23)
NIU Offense	13	54% (39)	45% (45)	35.8	179.8	5	23 (46)	.21 (36)	3.21 (50)	77% (36)	9% (47)	1.08 (29)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BALL Offense	12	41% (119)	33% (127)	15.1	25.3	136.7	5.4	9.1	9 (126)	8 (30)	.05 (128)	1.4 (130)	33% (92)	24% (123)	.18 (110)	5% (25)	2 (104)
NIU Defense	13	43% (12)	37% (21)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.17 (18)	1.4 (14)	32% (66)	24% (9)	.29 (55)	5% (115)	2.2 (109)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BALL Defense	12	51% (93)	42% (70)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (126)	.27 (70)	1.5 (29)	32% (61)	28% (30)	.21 (20)	5% (97)	2 (39)
NIU Offense	13	46% (95)	40% (85)	16.2	28.2	189.8	6.7	11.7	15 (96)	9 (40)	.26 (75)	1.5 (96)	32% (64)	26% (106)	.29 (83)	6% (63)	2.3 (16)

Ball State's Power Ratings
Ball State's Power Rating: -8.44 #112
Ball State's Offense Rating: 13.25 #98
Ball State's Defense Rating: 11.12 #87
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Ball State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.40 - 6.60
Ball State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.9 #116
Ball State's Offense SP+ Rating: 12.6 #131
Ball State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #61

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -8.44 Northern Illinois: -1.73

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -14.9 Northern Illinois: -6.7

Northern Illinois's Power Ratings
Northern Illinois's Power Rating: -1.73 #74
Northern Illinois's Offense Rating: 17.02 #61
Northern Illinois's Defense Rating: 8.15 #48
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Northern Illinois's 2023 Expected Record: 8.20 - 4.80
Northern Illinois's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.7 #85
Northern Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.4 #109
Northern Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #47

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Ball State Scoring
Offense: 18.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.3
Defense: 24.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.7

Ball State's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Northern Illinois 26
Ball State 16

Total Points: 42

Based on Last 4 Games
Northern Illinois 24
Ball State 16

Total Points: 40

Based on Entire Season
Northern Illinois 25
Ball State 17

Total Points: 42

Northern Illinois Scoring
Offense: 24.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 18.2
Defense: 21 PPG
Defense at Home: 13.7

Northern Illinois's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/25	Northern Illinois	21	Ball State	7	Northern Illinois -6.5	Northern Illinois	41.5	Under
2024	10/26	Ball State	25	Northern Illinois	23	Northern Illinois -13.5	Ball State	47.5	Over
2023	11/07	Northern Illinois	17	Ball State	20	Northern Illinois -9.5	Ball State	43.5	Under
2022	10/01	Ball State	44	Northern Illinois	38	Northern Illinois -3.5	Ball State	58.5	Over
2021	11/10	Northern Illinois	30	Ball State	29	Ball State -3	Northern Illinois	59.5	Under
2020	11/18	Ball State	31	Northern Illinois	25	Ball State -14.5	Northern Illinois	59.5	Under
2019	10/05	Northern Illinois	20	Ball State	27	Northern Illinois -4	Ball State	55.0	Under
2018	10/06	Ball State	16	Northern Illinois	24	Northern Illinois -3	Northern Illinois	52.5	Under
2017	11/09	Northern Illinois	63	Ball State	17	Northern Illinois -28.5	Northern Illinois	51.5	Over
2016	10/01	Ball State	24	Northern Illinois	31	Ball State -1	Northern Illinois	57.5	Under
2015	10/10	Northern Illinois	59	Ball State	41	Northern Illinois -10.5	Northern Illinois	54.5	Over
2014	11/05	Ball State	21	Northern Illinois	35	Northern Illinois -1.5	Northern Illinois	0
2013	11/13	Northern Illinois	48	Ball State	27	Northern Illinois -6.5	Northern Illinois	0
2012	10/06	Ball State	23	Northern Illinois	35
2011	11/15	Northern Illinois	41	Ball State	38
2010	11/20	Ball State	21	Northern Illinois	59
2009	11/12	Northern Illinois	26	Ball State	20
2008	11/05	Ball State	45	Northern Illinois	14
2007	11/24	Northern Illinois	21	Ball State	27
2006	09/30	Ball State	28	Northern Illinois	40
2005	10/29	Northern Illinois	17	Ball State	31
2004	10/30	Ball State	31	Northern Illinois	38
2003	11/01	Northern Illinois	48	Ball State	23
2002	10/05	Ball State	29	Northern Illinois	41
2001	11/17	Northern Illinois	33	Ball State	29
2000	09/29	Ball State	14	Northern Illinois	43

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Northern Illinois	18	9	4 Overs
Ball State	8	4	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	13 - 13	7 - 6	4 - 4	3 - 2
Road Teams	13 - 13	6 - 7	2 - 3	4 - 4

(#112) BALL at (#74) NIU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BALL	NIU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#112	#74
SP+SP+	#116	#85
Perf GradeGrade	#117	#82
OffenseOff	#101	#78
DefenseDef	#119	#64
Spec TeamsST	#132	#119
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Ball State Injury Report

Northern Illinois Injury Report

Ball State on Offense


CategoryCat	BALL Off	NIU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#101	#64
SuccessSuc	#95	#52
ExplosiveExp	#126	#5
PPAPPA	#97	#36
PowerPwr	#98	#48
SP+SP+	#131	#47
Pts POPPO	#105	#32
HavocHav	#85	#120

Ball State Run Game


CategoryCat	BALL Off	NIU Def
Run GameRun	#52	#67
Run SuccessRSuc	#50	#84
Run ExplRExp	#70	#37
PPAExp	#38	#69
Run BlockR Blk	#68	-
OL YdsOLY	#22	#108
Stuff RateStuff	#3	#125
TackleTak	-	#60

Ball State Pass Game


CategoryCat	BALL Off	NIU Def
Pass GamePass	#119	#75
Pass SuccessPSuc	#127	#21
Pass ExplPExl	#130	#14
PPAExp	#128	#18
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#23	#92
F7 HavocF7	#112	#114
DB HavocDB	#25	#115

Northern Illinois on Offense


CategoryCat	NIU Off	BALL Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#78	#119
SuccessSuc	#62	#66
ExplosiveExp	#84	#16
PPAPPA	#54	#70
PowerPwr	#61	#87
SP+SP+	#109	#61
Pts POPPO	#102	#70
HavocHav	#50	#60

Northern Illinois Run Game


CategoryCat	NIU Off	BALL Def
Run GameRun	#83	#98
Run SuccessRSuc	#45	#65
Run ExplRExp	#29	#23
PPAExp	#36	#45
Run BlockR Blk	#56	-
OL YdsOLY	#50	#62
Stuff RateStuff	#63	#99
TackleTak	-	#106

Northern Illinois Pass Game


CategoryCat	NIU Off	BALL Def
Pass GamePass	#87	#117
Pass SuccessPSuc	#85	#70
Pass ExplPExl	#96	#29
PPAExp	#75	#70
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#31	#103
F7 HavocF7	#47	#35
DB HavocDB	#63	#97

Program Comparison
NIU 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Up to Average G5

BALL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Brigham Field at Huskie Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 45° - Wind: 14 mph

Rematch from Week 11
Northern Illinois -9.5 (43.5)
Ball State won at Northern Illinois this year (20-17)

Previous Matchups
Ball State beat Northern Illinois last year (25-23)
Ball State beat Northern Illinois in 2023 (20-17)
Ball State beat Northern Illinois in 2022 (44-38)

BALL's OC Jared Elliott (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kiael Kelly	66	124	53%	577	2	3	4.7
Layne Hatcher (Tr)	65	98	66%	583	4	0	5.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Marquez Cooper (Tr)	227	1043	4	4.6	39
Kiael Kelly	134	723	7	5.4	55
Vaughn Pemberton	23	139	1	6.0	45
Rico Barfield	25	96	1	3.8	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Qian Magwood	41	358	1	8.7	32
Ahmad Edwards	31	354	1	11.4	57
Tanner Koziol	34	295	3	8.7	26
Marquez Cooper (Tr)	19	164	0	8.6	26

View Ball State's Full Roster

BALL's DC Tyler Stockton (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keionte Newson	80	7	3	3	2
Cole Pearce	78	10	3	6	2
Jordan Riley-Scott	61	3	0	0	8
Sidney Houston Jr.	59	17	8	4	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Sidney Houston Jr.	59	17	8	4	1
Mikhari Sibblis (Tr)	37	6	4	1	0
Cole Pearce	78	10	3	6	2
Keionte Newson	80	7	3	3	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Riley-Scott	61	3	0	0	8
Tyler Potts	27	3	1	0	6
Thailand Baldwin	30	0	0	1	5

NIU's OC Eric Eidsness (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Rocky Lombardi	189	327	58%	2274	11	7	7.0
Ethan Hampton	19	33	58%	147	2	2	4.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Antario Brown	212	1294	10	6.1	80
Gavin Williams (Tr)	95	488	3	5.1	53
Trayvon Rudolph	22	182	1	8.3	36
Rocky Lombardi	72	131	7	1.8	33

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Trayvon Rudolph	51	531	2	10.4	72
Grayson Barnes	23	422	5	18.3	58
Kacper Rutkiewicz	20	313	2	15.7	64
Davis Patterson	16	197	0	12.3	28

View Northern Illinois's Full Roster

NIU's DC Nick Benedetto (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Raishein Thomas	74	7	3	5	1
Jaden Dolphin	63	1	0	0	3
Tyler Jackson	56	2	0	2	0
DaRon Gilbert	52	3	1	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
James Ester	44	6	4	3	2
Roy Williams	24	6	4	1	1
George Gumbs	34	8	4	2	0
Devonte O'Malley	33	5	3	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Jashon Prophete	33	1	8
Javaughn Byrd	32	2	5
Jacob Finley	33	1	3