Kent State at Ball State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Kent State Golden Flashes at Ball State Cardinals

Saturday, November 18th 2023 (2:00 PM EST)
Ball State -10.5 (41.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Ball State 34 - Kent State: 3 (Mid-American)

Golden Flashes (1 - 11) (3 - 8 - 1)
Coach Kenni Burns (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 21 - 34 (18 - 43 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2.1 - 9.9 (#133)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Ball State -14.5 (SP+ BALL -12)
Projected Score: KENT: 16 - BALL: 31 (47)
BALL Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
KENT Travel: 224 miles

Cardinals (4 - 8) (7 - 4 - 1)
Coach Mike Neu (34 - 50)
Avg Score : 16 - 30 (24 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.4 - 6.6 (#89)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
KENT Players
BALL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Kent State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	Kent State at UCF	+35.0	54.0	L 6 - 56	O	N
Sat 9/9	Kent State at Arkansas	+38.0	57.5	L 6 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Kent State vs Central Connecticut	-21.5	46.5	W 38 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Kent State at Fresno State	+27.5	47.5	L 10 - 53	O	N
Sat 9/30	Kent State vs Miami (OH)	+14.0	51.5	L 3 - 23	U	N
Sat 10/7	Kent State at Ohio	+24.5	45.5	L 17 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/14	Kent State at Eastern Michigan	+7.0	40.0	L 14 - 28	O	N
Sat 10/21	Kent State vs Buffalo	+6.5	44.0	L 6 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/1	Kent State at Akron	+4.0	39.0	L 27 - 31	O	Y
Wed 11/8	Kent State vs Bowling Green	+10.5	41.5	L 19 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/18	Kent State at Ball State	+10.5	41.5	L 3 - 34	U	N
Sat 11/25	Kent State vs Northern Illinois	+20.5	44.5	L 27 - 37	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Kent State's Schedule

Ball State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Ball State at Kentucky	+25.0	49.0	L 14 - 44	O	N
Sat 9/9	Ball State at Georgia	+42.0	52.5	L 3 - 45	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Ball State vs Indiana State	-26.0	45.0	W 45 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Ball State vs Georgia Southern	+6.0	60.0	L 3 - 40	U	N
Sat 9/30	Ball State at Western Michigan	+1.5	50.0	L 24 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/7	Ball State at Eastern Michigan	+2.5	43.5	L 10 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/14	Ball State vs Toledo	+17.5	48.5	L 6 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Ball State vs Central Michigan	+5.0	42.0	W 24 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/1	Ball State at Bowling Green	+4.5	39.5	L 21 - 24	O	Y
Tue 11/7	Ball State at Northern Illinois	+9.5	43.5	W 20 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Ball State vs Kent State	-10.5	41.5	W 34 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Ball State vs Miami (OH)	+3.5	34.5	L 15 - 17	U	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
KENT	.22	44%	21.3	47%	3.33	203	42%	215	3.64	.27	48%	33.6	47%	51%	3.81	54.3	1.1	1.3
BALL	.11	40%	15.8	41%	3.22	158	40%	228	3.7	.16	43%	29.8	45%	41%	3.56	57.6	1.8	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
KENT		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
BALL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
KENT Offense	12	21.3	17.7	44.5%	3.64	1.1	23	418	203	215	4.7	57%	42%	47%	42%	19%	.22
BALL Defense	12	29.8	21.6	43%	3.56	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	55%	45%	45%	41%	17%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
KENT Defense	12	33.6	42.9	48.4%	3.81	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	47%	51%	15%	.27
BALL Offense	12	15.8	24.4	40.1%	3.7	1.8	21	386	158	228	4.5	43%	56%	41%	40%	19%	.11

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Kent State	12	26:07	22.8	41%	50%	6.7	54.3	1.1	1.3	5.8	2.2	2	30
Ball State	12	27:59	21.3	36%	32%	6.1	57.6	1.8	1.4	5.4	2.1	0	29.3

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
KENT Offense	12	57%	47%	43.1	202.8	4.7	23	.22	3.33	84%	11%	1.03
BALL Defense	12	55%	45%	-	-	-	-	.13	3.26	71%	9%	0.95

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
KENT Defense	12	49%	47%	-	-	-	-	.13	3.1	72%	10%	0.91
BALL Offense	12	43%	41%	34.8	157.8	4.5	14	.09	3.22	76%	7%	0.88

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
KENT Offense	12	42%	42%	16.2	29.1	215.2	7.4	13.3	17	8	.25	1.5	32%	34%	.44	8%	2.2
BALL Defense	12	45%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.23	1.4	32%	30%	.28	8%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
KENT Defense	12	50%	51%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.46	1.5	27%	35%	.37	5%	1.9
BALL Offense	12	56%	40%	23.9	40.1	228.2	5.7	9.5	18	14	.18	1.3	30%	31%	.26	12%	1.9

Kent State's Power Ratings
Kent State's Power Rating: -21.19 #133
Kent State's Offense Rating: 9.49 #124
Kent State's Defense Rating: 19.32 #132
2023 Talent Rating: 373.33 #118
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Kent State's 2023 Expected Record: 2.10 - 9.90
Kent State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -26.4 #133
Kent State's Offense SP+ Rating: 8.1 #133
Kent State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.8 #115

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 378.85
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Kent State: -21.19 Ball State: -9.17

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Kent State: -26.4 Ball State: -14.9

Ball State's Power Ratings
Ball State's Power Rating: -9.17 #112
Ball State's Offense Rating: 13.25 #98
Ball State's Defense Rating: 11.12 #87
2023 Talent Rating: 403.54 #111
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Ball State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.40 - 6.60
Ball State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.9 #116
Ball State's Offense SP+ Rating: 12.6 #131
Ball State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #61

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 378.85
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Kent State Scoring
Offense: 21.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.7
Defense: 33.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 42.9

Kent State's 2023 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 1
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 0 - 7
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 5 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 8 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0

Projected Score
Ball State 31
Kent State 16

Projected Total Points: 47

Ball State Scoring
Offense: 15.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.4
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.6

Ball State's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/05	Ball State	17	Kent State	13	Ball State -3	Ball State	48.5	Under
2024	10/12	Kent State	35	Ball State	37	Ball State -3	Kent State	58.0	Over
2023	11/18	Ball State	34	Kent State	3	Ball State -10.5	Ball State	41.5	Under
2022	11/01	Kent State	20	Ball State	27	Kent State -7	Ball State	61.5	Under
2019	11/23	Kent State	41	Ball State	38	Ball State -3	Kent State	67.5	Over
2018	09/29	Ball State	52	Kent State	24	Ball State -7	Ball State	62.0	Over
2013	10/12	Ball State	27	Kent State	24	Ball State -11	Kent State	0
2012	09/29	Kent State	45	Ball State	43
2010	10/30	Kent State	33	Ball State	14
2008	09/27	Ball State	41	Kent State	20
2006	11/24	Ball State	30	Kent State	6
2003	10/04	Kent State	17	Ball State	34
2001	11/10	Ball State	18	Kent State	31

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Ball State	9	4	3 Overs
Kent State	4	3	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 4	5 - 2	3 - 2	2 - 0
Road Teams	4 - 9	2 - 5	0 - 2	2 - 3

(#133) KENT at (#112) BALL

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	KENT	BALL
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#133	#112
SP+SP+	#133	#116
Perf GradeGrade	#131	#117
OffenseOff	#123	#101
DefenseDef	#129	#119
Spec TeamsST	#97	#132
TalentTal	#118	#111
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Kent State Injury Report

Ball State Injury Report

Kent State on Offense


CategoryCat	KENT Off	BALL Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#123	#119
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#124	#87
SP+SP+	#133	#61
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Kent State Run Game


CategoryCat	KENT Off	BALL Def
Run GameRun	#132	#98
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#133	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#106

Kent State Pass Game


CategoryCat	KENT Off	BALL Def
Pass GamePass	#84	#117
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#126	#103
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Ball State on Offense


CategoryCat	BALL Off	KENT Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#101	#129
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#98	#132
SP+SP+	#131	#115
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Ball State Run Game


CategoryCat	BALL Off	KENT Def
Run GameRun	#52	#118
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#68	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#118

Ball State Pass Game


CategoryCat	BALL Off	KENT Def
Pass GamePass	#119	#126
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#23	#131
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
BALL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

KENT 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Scheumann Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 12
Ball State -10.5 (41.5)
Ball State won vs Kent State this year (34-3)

Previous Matchups
Ball State beat Kent State last year (17-13)
Ball State beat Kent State in 2024 (37-35)
Ball State beat Kent State in 2023 (34-3)

KENT's OC Matt Johnson (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Michael Alaimo	79	144	55%	932	2	4	6.5
Tommy Ulatowski	60	121	50%	737	7	2	6.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Gavin Garcia	138	544	2	3.9	42
Jaylen Thomas	133	460	2	3.5	34
Xavier Williams	42	137	1	3.3	18
Tommy Ulatowski	47	89	1	1.9	39

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Chrishon Mccray	41	610	4	14.9	42
Luke Floriea	39	414	4	10.6	43
Trell Harris	26	400	1	15.4	43
Jameel Gardner Jr.	24	298	1	12.4	50

View Kent State's Full Roster

KENT's DC David Duggan (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bryce Sheppert	75	1	0	2	7
Nick Giacolone	50	5	0	0	1
Stephen Daley	47	6	1	7	0
D.J. Miller	46	1	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
CJ Harris	31	6	2	0	1
Marcus Winfield	11	3	2	1	0
Macyo Williams	18	3	2	2	0
Stephen Daley	47	6	1	7	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Capone Blue	30	0	0	0	10
Bryce Sheppert	75	1	0	2	7
Alex Branch	32	2	1	0	3

BALL's OC Jared Elliott (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kiael Kelly	66	124	53%	577	2	3	4.7
Layne Hatcher (Tr)	65	98	66%	583	4	0	5.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Marquez Cooper (Tr)	227	1043	4	4.6	39
Kiael Kelly	134	723	7	5.4	55
Vaughn Pemberton	23	139	1	6.0	45
Rico Barfield	25	96	1	3.8	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Qian Magwood	41	358	1	8.7	32
Ahmad Edwards	31	354	1	11.4	57
Tanner Koziol	34	295	3	8.7	26
Marquez Cooper (Tr)	19	164	0	8.6	26

View Ball State's Full Roster

BALL's DC Tyler Stockton (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keionte Newson	80	7	3	3	2
Cole Pearce	78	10	3	6	2
Jordan Riley-Scott	61	3	0	0	8
Sidney Houston Jr.	59	17	8	4	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Sidney Houston Jr.	59	17	8	4	1
Mikhari Sibblis (Tr)	37	6	4	1	0
Cole Pearce	78	10	3	6	2
Keionte Newson	80	7	3	3	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Riley-Scott	61	3	0	0	8
Tyler Potts	27	3	1	0	6
Thailand Baldwin	30	0	0	1	5