Air Force at San José State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Air Force Falcons at San José State Spartans

Friday, September 22nd 2023 (10:30 PM EDT)
Air Force -6 (45.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Air Force 45 - San José State: 20 (Mountain West)

Falcons (9 - 4) (5 - 7 - 1)
Coach Troy Calhoun (124 - 78)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (32 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 4.7 (#41)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

SJSU is playing their 4th straight game
AFA is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Air Force -1.5 (SP+ AFA -7)
Projected Score: AFA: 27 - SJSU: 25 (52)
AFA Win prob: 66% | Cover: 50%
AFA Travel: 931 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Spartans (7 - 6) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Brent Brennan (28 - 45)
Avg Score : 21 - 33 (26 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 6.5 (#68)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
AFA Players
SJSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Air Force's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Air Force vs Robert Morris	-47.0	51.0	W 42 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/9	Air Force vs Sam Houston	-13.5	36.5	W 13 - 3	U	N
Fri 9/15	Air Force vs Utah State	-9.0	45.5	W 39 - 21	O	Y
Fri 9/22	Air Force at San José State	-6.0	45.5	W 45 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Air Force vs San Diego State	-10.5	43.5	W 49 - 10	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Air Force vs Wyoming	-12.5	42.0	W 34 - 27	O	N
Sat 10/21	Air Force at Navy	-11.0	34.0	W 17 - 6	U	N
Sat 10/28	Air Force at Colorado State	-14.5	47.0	W 30 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Air Force vs Army	-18.5	32.0	L 3 - 23	U	N
Sat 11/11	Air Force at Hawai'i	-22.5	47.5	L 13 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/18	Air Force vs UNLV	-2.5	46.5	L 27 - 31	O	N
Fri 11/24	Air Force at Boise State	+6.5	44.5	L 19 - 27	O	N
Sat 12/23	Air Force vs James Madison	-2.5	44.5	W 31 - 21	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule

San José State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	San José State at USC	+31.5	66.0	L 28 - 56	O	Y
Sun 9/3	San José State vs Oregon State	+14.0	56.5	L 17 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/9	San José State vs Cal Poly	-23.5	60.0	W 59 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/16	San José State at Toledo	+9.0	56.5	L 17 - 21	U	Y
Fri 9/22	San José State vs Air Force	+6.0	45.5	L 20 - 45	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7	San José State at Boise State	+8.0	57.5	L 27 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/14	San José State at New Mexico	-6.5	55.0	W 52 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/21	San José State vs Utah State	-4.0	65.0	W 42 - 21	U	Y
Sat 10/28	San José State at Hawai'i	-10.5	57.0	W 35 - 0	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/11	San José State vs Fresno State	-2.5	51.5	W 42 - 18	O	Y
Sat 11/18	San José State vs San Diego State	-16.5	48.5	W 24 - 13	U	N
Sat 11/25	San José State at UNLV	+3.5	58.5	W 37 - 31	O	Y
Sat 12/23	San José State vs Coastal Carolina	-7.5	48.0	L 14 - 24	U	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA	.3	49%	29.8	50%	3.55	327	39%	70	4.25	.11	39%	30.3	38%	42%	3.77	29.7	1	1.3
SJSU	.18	45%	21.4	48%	3.16	96	43%	272	4.25	.15	40%	32.5	40%	41%	3.42	48.5	0.8	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
SJSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Offense	13	29.8	32.2	48.5%	4.25	1	20	398	327	70	5.3	87%	13%	50%	39%	10%	.3
SJSU Defense	12	32.5	29.5	39.7%	3.42	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	40%	41%	19%	.15

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Defense	13	30.3	32.8	39.4%	3.77	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	38%	42%	20%	.11
SJSU Offense	12	21.4	25.8	45%	4.25	0.8	20	368	96	272	3.4	38%	61%	48%	43%	19%	.18

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Air Force	13	36:21	20.5	45%	72%	3.9	29.7	1	1.3	5.1	1.8	0	29.6
San José State	12	28:36	20.4	37%	47%	5.8	48.5	0.8	1.8	7	3.3	0	31.4

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Offense	13	87%	50%	61.7	327.2	5.3	37	.28	3.55	84%	8%	0.96
SJSU Defense	12	51%	40%	-	-	-	-	.14	3	68%	13%	1

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Defense	13	54%	38%	-	-	-	-	.1	3.06	62%	13%	1.01
SJSU Offense	12	38%	48%	28.6	96.2	3.4	19	.14	3.16	67%	10%	0.82

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Offense	13	13%	39%	3.2	6.7	70.5	10.5	22.3	8	2	.53	2.6	26%	33%	.36	2%	1.9
SJSU Defense	12	48%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.23	1.6	29%	29%	.37	6%	2.2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Defense	13	45%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.25	1.3	33%	24%	.19	7%	2
SJSU Offense	12	61%	43%	21.7	35.8	271.8	7.6	12.5	23	7	.25	1.5	30%	36%	.36	8%	1.8

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -0.78 #69
Air Force's Offense Rating: 20.41 #34
Air Force's Defense Rating: 6.38 #34
2023 Talent Rating: 300.00 #130
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Air Force's 2023 Expected Record: 8.30 - 4.70
Air Force's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.2 #45
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #76
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #29

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 355.54
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -0.78 San José State: 0.835

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: 5.2 San José State: -1.9

San José State's Power Ratings
San José State's Power Rating: 0.835 #71
San José State's Offense Rating: 19.30 #42
San José State's Defense Rating: 10.51 #79
2023 Talent Rating: 513.83 #86
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
San José State's 2023 Expected Record: 6.50 - 6.50
San José State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.9 #73
San José State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #48
San José State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #87

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 355.54
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 29.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 32.2
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Air Force's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Air Force 27
San José State 25

Projected Total Points: 52

San José State Scoring
Offense: 21.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.8
Defense: 32.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 29.5

San José State's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/08	San José State	16	Air Force	26	San José State -6	Air Force	67.5	Under
2024	09/07	Air Force	7	San José State	17	Air Force -1.5	San José State	43.5	Under
2023	09/22	San José State	20	Air Force	45	Air Force -6	Air Force	45.5	Over
2020	10/24	San José State	17	Air Force	6	Air Force -7.5	San José State	63.5	Under
2019	09/27	Air Force	41	San José State	24	Air Force -19.5	San José State	58.5	Over
2016	11/19	San José State	38	Air Force	41	Air Force -11	San José State	54.5	Over
2015	09/12	Air Force	37	San José State	16	Air Force -7	Air Force	58.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
San José State	2	4	3 Overs
Air Force	5	3	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 4	3 - 4	1 - 3	2 - 1
Road Teams	4 - 3	4 - 3	1 - 2	3 - 1

(#69) AFA at (#71) SJSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	AFA	SJSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#69	#71
SP+SP+	#45	#73
Perf GradeGrade	#9	#62
OffenseOff	#7	#33
DefenseDef	#19	#105
Spec TeamsST	#38	#35
TalentTal	#130	#86
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Air Force Injury Report

San José State Injury Report

Air Force on Offense


CategoryCat	AFA Off	SJSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#7	#105
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#34	#79
SP+SP+	#76	#87
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Air Force Run Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	SJSU Def
Run GameRun	#64	#131
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#1	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#109

Air Force Pass Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	SJSU Def
Pass GamePass	#73	#30
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#67	#64
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

San José State on Offense


CategoryCat	SJSU Off	AFA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#33	#19
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#42	#34
SP+SP+	#48	#29
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

San José State Run Game


CategoryCat	SJSU Off	AFA Def
Run GameRun	#15	#23
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#42	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#8

San José State Pass Game


CategoryCat	SJSU Off	AFA Def
Pass GamePass	#25	#44
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#52	#29
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
SJSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'23 Profile: Remains Top G5

AFA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Spartan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 4
Air Force 6.0 (45.5)
Air Force won at San José State this year (45-20)

Previous Matchups
Air Force beat San José State last year (26-16)
San José State beat Air Force in 2024 (17-7)
Air Force beat San José State in 2023 (45-20)

AFA's OC Mike Thiessen (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Zachary Larrier	40	67	60%	789	7	2	11.8
John Busha	9	19	47%	152	0	1	8.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Emmanuel Michel	200	935	11	4.7	54
Zachary Larrier	142	605	6	4.3	41
John Lee Eldridge III	84	599	6	7.1	65
Dylan Carson	68	493	2	7.3	68

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jared Roznos	12	374	3	31.2	84
Cade Harris	5	179	1	35.8	65
Brandon Engel	10	178	0	17.8	39
Dane Kinamon	5	126	2	25.2	94

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC Brian Knorr (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Alec Mock	93	5	2	2	1
Johnathan Youngblood	85	4	0	3	1
Trey Taylor	74	5	1	0	4
Jayden Goodwin	73	2	1	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bo Richter	45	20	10	8	1
PJ Ramsey	35	12	8	5	2
Peyton Zdroik	32	7	5	2	0
Alec Mock	93	5	2	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jamari Bellamy	35	2	0	5
Jayden Goodwin	73	2	1	5
Trey Taylor	74	5	1	4

SJSU's OC Kevin McGiven (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Chevan Cordeiro	223	363	61%	2773	20	4	7.6
Jay Butterfield (Tr)	7	11	64%	80	1	0	7.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kairee Robinson	169	1191	18	7.0	52
Quali Conley (Tr)	131	842	9	6.4	68
Chevan Cordeiro	81	272	3	3.4	28
Isaac Jernigan	12	86	0	7.2	45

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nick Nash	48	728	8	15.2	58
Charles Ross	26	347	1	13.3	35
Dominick Mazotti	23	322	2	14.0	44
Sam Olson	22	310	3	14.1	56

View San José State's Full Roster

SJSU's DC Derrick Odum (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bryun Parham	106	5	2	4	2
Jordan Pollard	79	4	0	0	0
Tre Jenkins	67	1	0	0	4
Tre Smith	67	10	7	4	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Tre Smith	67	10	7	4
Soane Toia	35	6	4	0
Noah Lavulo	49	7	4	5
Jay Kakiva	43	7	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jay'Vion Cole	38	2	1	10
D.J. Harvey (Tr)	28	2	0	5
Tre Jenkins	67	1	0	4