Air Force at San José State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Air Force Falcons at San José State Spartans

Friday, September 22nd 2023 (10:30 PM EDT)
Air Force -6 (45.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Air Force 45 - San José State: 20 (Mountain West)

Falcons (9 - 4) (5 - 7 - 1)
Coach Troy Calhoun (124 - 78)
Avg Score : 19 - 23 (19 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 4.7 (#41)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

SJSU is playing their 4th straight game
AFA is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Air Force -1.5 (SP+ AFA -7)
Projected Score: AFA: 25 - SJSU: 23 (49)
AFA Win prob: 66% | Cover: 50%
AFA Travel: 931 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Spartans (7 - 6) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Brent Brennan (28 - 45)
Avg Score : 28 - 28 (29 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 6.5 (#68)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
AFA Players
SJSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Air Force's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Air Force vs Robert Morris	-47.0	51.0	W 42 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/9	Air Force vs Sam Houston	-13.5	36.5	W 13 - 3	U	N
Fri 9/15	Air Force vs Utah State	-9.0	45.5	W 39 - 21	O	Y
Fri 9/22	Air Force at San José State	-6.0	45.5	W 45 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Air Force vs San Diego State	-10.5	43.5	W 49 - 10	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Air Force vs Wyoming	-12.5	42.0	W 34 - 27	O	N
Sat 10/21	Air Force at Navy	-11.0	34.0	W 17 - 6	U	N
Sat 10/28	Air Force at Colorado State	-14.5	47.0	W 30 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Air Force vs Army	-18.5	32.0	L 3 - 23	U	N
Sat 11/11	Air Force at Hawai'i	-22.5	47.5	L 13 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/18	Air Force vs UNLV	-2.5	46.5	L 27 - 31	O	N
Fri 11/24	Air Force at Boise State	+6.5	44.5	L 19 - 27	O	N
Sat 12/23	Air Force vs James Madison	-2.5	44.5	W 31 - 21	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule

San José State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	San José State at USC	+31.5	66.0	L 28 - 56	O	Y
Sun 9/3	San José State vs Oregon State	+14.0	56.5	L 17 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/9	San José State vs Cal Poly	-23.5	60.0	W 59 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/16	San José State at Toledo	+9.0	56.5	L 17 - 21	U	Y
Fri 9/22	San José State vs Air Force	+6.0	45.5	L 20 - 45	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7	San José State at Boise State	+8.0	57.5	L 27 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/14	San José State at New Mexico	-6.5	55.0	W 52 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/21	San José State vs Utah State	-4.0	65.0	W 42 - 21	U	Y
Sat 10/28	San José State at Hawai'i	-10.5	57.0	W 35 - 0	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/11	San José State vs Fresno State	-2.5	51.5	W 42 - 18	O	Y
Sat 11/18	San José State vs San Diego State	-16.5	48.5	W 24 - 13	U	N
Sat 11/25	San José State at UNLV	+3.5	58.5	W 37 - 31	O	Y
Sat 12/23	San José State vs Coastal Carolina	-7.5	48.0	L 14 - 24	U	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA	.3	49%	18.9	50%	3.55	327	39%	70	4.25	.11	39%	23.3	38%	42%	3.77	29.7	1	1.3
SJSU	.18	45%	28.4	48%	3.16	96	43%	272	4.25	.15	40%	27.5	40%	41%	3.42	48.5	0.8	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
SJSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Offense	13	18.9	19.2	48.5%	4.25	1	20	398	327	70	5.3	87%	13%	50%	39%	10%	.3
SJSU Defense	12	27.5	25.6	39.7%	3.42	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	40%	41%	19%	.15

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Defense	13	23.3	28.8	39.4%	3.77	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	38%	42%	20%	.11
SJSU Offense	12	28.4	29	45%	4.25	0.8	20	368	96	272	3.4	38%	61%	48%	43%	19%	.18

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Air Force	13	36:21	20.5	45%	72%	3.9	29.7	1	1.3	5.1	1.8	0	29.6
San José State	12	28:36	20.4	37%	47%	5.8	48.5	0.8	1.8	7	3.3	0	31.4

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Offense	13	87%	50%	61.7	327.2	5.3	37	.28	3.55	84%	8%	0.96
SJSU Defense	12	51%	40%	-	-	-	-	.14	3	68%	13%	1

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Defense	13	54%	38%	-	-	-	-	.1	3.06	62%	13%	1.01
SJSU Offense	12	38%	48%	28.6	96.2	3.4	19	.14	3.16	67%	10%	0.82

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Offense	13	13%	39%	3.2	6.7	70.5	10.5	22.3	8	2	.53	2.6	26%	33%	.36	2%	1.9
SJSU Defense	12	48%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.23	1.6	29%	29%	.37	6%	2.2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Defense	13	45%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.25	1.3	33%	24%	.19	7%	2
SJSU Offense	12	61%	43%	21.7	35.8	271.8	7.6	12.5	23	7	.25	1.5	30%	36%	.36	8%	1.8

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -0.78 #69
Air Force's Offense Rating: 20.41 #34
Air Force's Defense Rating: 6.38 #34
2023 Talent Rating: 712.00 #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Air Force's 2023 Expected Record: 8.30 - 4.70
Air Force's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.2 #45
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #76
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #29

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 492.67
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -0.78 San José State: 0.835

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: 5.2 San José State: -1.9

San José State's Power Ratings
San José State's Power Rating: 0.835 #71
San José State's Offense Rating: 19.30 #42
San José State's Defense Rating: 10.51 #79
2023 Talent Rating: 410.00 #110
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
San José State's 2023 Expected Record: 6.50 - 6.50
San José State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.9 #73
San José State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #48
San José State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #87

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 492.67
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 18.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.2
Defense: 23.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.8

Air Force's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 1
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Air Force 25
San José State 23

Projected Total Points: 49

San José State Scoring
Offense: 28.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 27.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.6

San José State's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/07	Air Force	7	San José State	17	San José State	Air Force -1.5	San José State	43.5	Under
2023	09/22	San José State	20	Air Force	45	Air Force	Air Force -6	Air Force	45.5	Over
2020	10/24	San José State	17	Air Force	6	San José State	Air Force -7.5	San José State	63.5	Under
2019	09/27	Air Force	41	San José State	24	Air Force	Air Force -19.5	San José State	58.5	Over
2016	11/19	San José State	38	Air Force	41	Air Force	Air Force -11	San José State	54.5	Over
2015	09/12	Air Force	37	San José State	16	Air Force	Air Force -7	Air Force	58.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
San José State	2	4	3 Overs
Air Force	4	2	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 3	3 - 3	1 - 2	2 - 1
Road Teams	3 - 3	3 - 3	1 - 2	2 - 1

(#69) Air Force Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -0.78 #69
Offense Rating: 20.41 #34
Defense Rating: 6.38 #34
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.2 #45
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #76
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #29
Talent Rating: 712.00 #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 8.30 - 4.70

Team Profile

,
,

Air Force Ratings Matchup San José State

Power #69

#71

Off #34

#42

Def #34

#79

Talent #43

#110

SP+ #45

#73

SP+ Off #76

#48

SP+ Def #29

#87

Rematch from Week 4
Air Force 6.0 (45.5)
Air Force won at San José State this year (45-20)

Previous Matchups
San José State beat Air Force last year (17-7)
Air Force beat San José State in 2023 (45-20)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Spartan Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 63°

Team Information
Injuries: AFA | SJSU
Depth Chart: AFA | SJSU
Rosters: AFA | SJSU

(#71) San José State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 0.835 #71
Offense Rating: 19.30 #42
Defense Rating: 10.51 #79
Overall SP+ Rating: -1.9 #73
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #48
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #87
Talent Rating: 410.00 #110
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 6.50 - 6.50

Team Profile

,
,

Air Force's OC Mike Thiessen

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
John Busha	29	79	37%	415	1	5	5.3
Brandon Engel	2	2	100%	81	0	0	40.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
John Busha	78	172	1	2.2	12
Aiden Calvert	18	91	2	5.1	37
Cameron Breier	2	12	0	6.0	7
Darius Stone	3	7	0	2.3	4

Player Name	REC	YDS	YPC	LONG
Jared Roznos	5	109	21.8	52
Brandon Engel	3	31	10.3	14
Aiden Calvert	1	21	21.0	21

View Air Force's Full Roster

Air Force's DC Brian Knorr

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Camby Goff	67	3	0	1	3
Jamari Bellamy	64	3	0	0	4
Osaro Aihie	58	2	2	0	1
Grant Uyl	41	4	2	2	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Osaro Aihie	58	2	2	0	1
Grant Uyl	41	4	2	2	0
James Tomasi	20	2	1	1	0
Camby Goff	67	3	0	1	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jamari Bellamy	64	3	0	0	4
Camby Goff	67	3	0	1	3
Osaro Aihie	58	2	2	0	1

San José State's OC Kevin McGiven

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Nick Nash	2	2	100%	42	2	0	21.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Quali Conley (Tr)	150	745	8	5.0	58
Dominick Mazotti	1	3	0	3.0	3
Anthony Garcia	1	1	0	1.0	1
Nick Nash	1	-9	0	-9.0	0

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nick Nash	104	1382	16	13.3	45
Justin Lockhart	53	983	5	18.5	57
Quali Conley (Tr)	39	245	1	6.3	16
Sam Olson	13	196	2	15.1	51

View San José State's Full Roster

San José State's DC Derrick Odum

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Cobbs	69	8	3	1	1
Soane Toia	55	10	5	4	0
Tre Smith	48	7	5	2	0
Justin Eklund	15	0	0	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Soane Toia	55	10	5	4	0
Tre Smith	48	7	5	2	0
Jordan Cobbs	69	8	3	1	1
Jairus Satele	5	1	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Cobbs	69	8	3	1	1
Bryun Parham	12	0	0	0	1
Elijah Wood	1	0	0	0	1