Georgia State at Georgia Southern - 2023 Matchup Preview

Georgia State Panthers at Georgia Southern Eagles

Thursday, October 26th 2023 (7:30 PM EDT)
Georgia State -1.0 (63.0) (0) Open: -2.5
Georgia Southern 44 - Georgia State: 27 (Sun Belt)

Panthers (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Shawn Elliott (37 - 38)
Avg Score : 27 - 30 (26 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.7 - 7.3 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

GAST 2nd straight Road Game
GASO 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Georgia Southern -4.5 (SP+ GASO -5)
Projected Score: GAST: 28 - GASO: 32 (60)
GAST Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
GAST Travel: 176 miles

Eagles (6 - 7) (4 - 8 - 1)
Coach Clay Helton (8 - 8)
Avg Score : 30 - 31 (37 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.3 - 7.7 (#92)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
GAST Players
GASO Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Georgia State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	Georgia State vs Rhode Island	-18.0	61.5	W 42 - 35	O	N
Sat 9/9	Georgia State vs UConn	-3.0	54.5	W 35 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Georgia State at Charlotte	-6.5	52.0	W 41 - 25	O	Y
Thu 9/21	Georgia State at Coastal Carolina	+4.5	62.5	W 30 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Georgia State vs Troy	-1.0	50.5	L 7 - 28	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Georgia State vs Marshall	-2.0	53.5	W 41 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Georgia State at Louisiana	+3.0	62.0	W 20 - 17	U	Y
Thu 10/26	Georgia State at Georgia Southern	-1.0	63.0	L 27 - 44	O	N
Sat 11/4	Georgia State vs James Madison	+6.0	53.0	L 14 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/11	Georgia State vs App State	-2.5	62.5	L 14 - 42	U	N
Sat 11/18	Georgia State at LSU	+32.5	73.5	L 14 - 56	U	N
Sat 11/25	Georgia State at Old Dominion	+2.0	49.5	L 24 - 25	U	Y
Sat 12/23	Georgia State vs Utah State	+2.0	58.0	W 45 - 22	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Georgia State's Schedule

Georgia Southern's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Georgia Southern vs The Citadel	-34.0	53.5	W 34 - 0	U	N
Sat 9/9	Georgia Southern vs UAB	-7.0	63.0	W 49 - 35	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Georgia Southern at Wisconsin	+20.5	65.5	L 14 - 35	U	N
Sat 9/23	Georgia Southern at Ball State	-6.0	60.0	W 40 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Georgia Southern vs Coastal Carolina	-6.0	67.5	W 38 - 28	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Georgia Southern at James Madison	+5.5	60.0	L 13 - 41	U	N
Sat 10/21	Georgia Southern vs UL Monroe	-16.5	60.5	W 38 - 28	O	N
Thu 10/26	Georgia Southern vs Georgia State	+1.0	63.0	W 44 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Georgia Southern at Texas State	-2.0	69.0	L 24 - 45	U	N
Sat 11/11	Georgia Southern at Marshall	-1.5	56.5	L 33 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/18	Georgia Southern vs Old Dominion	-4.5	61.5	L 17 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/25	Georgia Southern at App State	+7.5	62.5	L 27 - 55	O	N
Sat 12/16	Georgia Southern vs Ohio	-1.5	48.5	L 21 - 41	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
GAST	#68 (.19)	42% (72)	27.2	40% (105)	2.84 (112)	188	44% (41)	206	3.92 (65)	#94 (.22)	42% (68)	30.1	40% (43)	45% (111)	3.95 (83)	57.5	1.2	1.3
GASO	#55 (.21)	45% (32)	30.2	48% (21)	3.13 (64)	117	45% (40)	302	3.64 (88)	#118 (.27)	45% (107)	30.5	45% (94)	45% (115)	4.45 (123)	51.8	2.4	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
GAST	#92 (.15)	41% (90)		42% (92)	2.94 (86)	134	41% (79)	256	3.85 (76)	#121 (.28)	48% (123)		49% (119)	46% (118)	4.42 (120)	49.1	1.6	1.4
GASO	#68 (.19)	43% (65)		46% (44)	2.84 (101)	128	40% (85)	238	4.57 (17)	#105 (.23)	45% (108)		47% (109)	44% (102)	3.81 (71)	48.3	1.7	1.5

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
GAST Offense	13	27.2	26	41.6%	3.92	1.2	20	394	188	206	4.8	55%	44%	40%	44%	15%	.19
GASO Defense	13	30.5	23	44.9%	4.45	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	45%	45%	22%	.27

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
GAST Defense	13	30.1	30.7	42.1%	3.95	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	40%	45%	15%	.22
GASO Offense	13	30.2	36.7	45.3%	3.64	2.4	23	419	117	302	4	35%	64%	48%	45%	17%	.21

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Georgia State	13	29:26	19.5	46%	47%	6.4	57.5	1.2	1.3	5.5	2	2	29.1
Georgia Southern	13	31:06	23.1	46%	59%	5.8	51.8	2.4	1.6	7	1.8	4	30.8

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
GAST Offense	13	55% (29)	40% (105)	39.3	188.1	4.8	25 (37)	.15 (74)	2.84 (112)	78% (30)	11% (89)	1.16 (7)
GASO Defense	13	49% (55)	45% (94)	-	-	-	-	.25 (122)	3.16 (85)	72% (59)	14% (7)	1.13 (116)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
GAST Defense	13	47% (25)	40% (43)	-	-	-	-	.15 (72)	3.05 (56)	63% (19)	10% (63)	1.06 (95)
GASO Offense	13	35% (130)	48% (21)	29	117.1	4	16 (89)	.23 (25)	3.13 (64)	78% (35)	10% (63)	1.05 (41)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
GAST Offense	13	44% (104)	44% (41)	19.2	28.2	205.5	7.3	10.7	20 (70)	7 (21)	.31 (61)	1.5 (91)	31% (45)	33% (47)	.37 (58)	4% (14)	2.1 (38)
GASO Defense	13	50% (81)	45% (115)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.3 (89)	1.5 (32)	31% (96)	35% (120)	.49 (127)	9% (5)	2.1 (81)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
GAST Defense	13	52% (106)	45% (111)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.37 (113)	1.6 (76)	33% (55)	31% (89)	.42 (114)	4% (122)	2.2 (106)
GASO Offense	13	64% (4)	45% (40)	28.9	44.4	302.2	6.8	10.5	26 (31)	20 (133)	.26 (74)	1.4 (131)	30% (41)	34% (35)	.41 (42)	8% (114)	2.1 (62)

Georgia State's Power Ratings
Georgia State's Power Rating: -7.09 #99
Georgia State's Offense Rating: 15.65 #76
Georgia State's Defense Rating: 11.67 #96
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Georgia State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.70 - 7.30
Georgia State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.4 #100
Georgia State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.1 #71
Georgia State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #109

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Georgia State: -7.09 Georgia Southern: -3.8

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Georgia State: -9.4 Georgia Southern: -4.4

Georgia Southern's Power Ratings
Georgia Southern's Power Rating: -3.8 #109
Georgia Southern's Offense Rating: 16.14 #69
Georgia Southern's Defense Rating: 13.87 #111
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #68
Georgia Southern's 2023 Expected Record: 5.30 - 7.70
Georgia Southern's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.4 #80
Georgia Southern's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.7 #40
Georgia Southern's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.6 #120

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Georgia State Scoring
Offense: 27.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 26
Defense: 30.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.7

Georgia State's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Georgia Southern 32
Georgia State 28

Total Points: 60

Based on Last 4 Games
Georgia Southern 27
Georgia State 26

Total Points: 53

Based on Entire Season
Georgia Southern 32
Georgia State 27

Total Points: 59

Georgia Southern Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.7
Defense: 30.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 23

Georgia Southern's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/18	Georgia Southern	41	Georgia State	24	Georgia Southern -6.5	Georgia Southern	58.5	Over
2024	09/28	Georgia State	21	Georgia Southern	38	Georgia State -3.5	Georgia Southern	57.5	Over
2023	10/26	Georgia Southern	44	Georgia State	27	Georgia State -1.0	Georgia Southern	63.0	Over
2022	10/08	Georgia State	41	Georgia Southern	33	Georgia State -2.5	Georgia State	67.5	Over
2021	10/30	Georgia Southern	14	Georgia State	21	Georgia State -6	Georgia State	55.0	Under
2020	11/28	Georgia State	30	Georgia Southern	24	Georgia State -2.5	Georgia State	51.5	Over
2019	11/30	Georgia Southern	38	Georgia State	10	Georgia Southern -6.5	Georgia Southern	56.0	Under
2018	11/24	Georgia State	14	Georgia Southern	35	Georgia Southern -10	Georgia Southern	60.0	Under
2017	11/04	Georgia Southern	17	Georgia State	21	Georgia State -5.5	Georgia Southern	50.5	Under
2016	11/19	Georgia State	30	Georgia Southern	24	Georgia Southern -3.5	Georgia State	47.5	Over
2015	12/05	Georgia Southern	7	Georgia State	34	Georgia Southern -22	Georgia State	57.0	Under
2014	10/25	Georgia State	31	Georgia Southern	69	Georgia Southern -15	Georgia Southern	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Georgia Southern	6	7	6 Overs
Georgia State	6	5	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 6	7 - 5	4 - 2	3 - 3
Road Teams	6 - 6	5 - 7	3 - 3	2 - 4

(#99) GAST at (#109) GASO

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	GAST	GASO
Power RatePwr	#99	#109
SP+SP+	#100	#80
Perf GradeGrade	#112	#75
OffenseOff	#89	#76
DefenseDef	#118	#81
Spec TeamsST	#99	#48
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#68

Georgia State Injury Report

Georgia Southern Injury Report

Georgia State on Offense


CategoryCat	GAST Off	GASO Def
Perf GradePerf	#89	#81
SuccessSuc	#72	#107
ExplosiveExp	#41	#83
PPAPPA	#68	#118
PowerPwr	#76	#111
SP+SP+	#71	#120
Pts POPPO	#65	#123
HavocHav	#59	#4

Georgia State Run Game


CategoryCat	GAST Off	GASO Def
Run GameRun	#91	#66
Run SuccessRSuc	#105	#94
Run ExplRExp	#7	#116
PPAExp	#74	#122
Run BlockR Blk	#98	-
OL YdsOLY	#112	#85
Stuff RateStuff	#77	#61
TackleTak	-	#48

Georgia State Pass Game


CategoryCat	GAST Off	GASO Def
Pass GamePass	#70	#78
Pass SuccessPSuc	#41	#115
Pass ExplPExl	#91	#32
PPAExp	#61	#89
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#15	#105
F7 HavocF7	#89	#7
DB HavocDB	#14	#5

Georgia Southern on Offense


CategoryCat	GASO Off	GAST Def
Perf GradePerf	#76	#118
SuccessSuc	#32	#68
ExplosiveExp	#95	#109
PPAPPA	#55	#94
PowerPwr	#69	#96
SP+SP+	#40	#109
Pts POPPO	#88	#83
HavocHav	#91	#105

Georgia Southern Run Game


CategoryCat	GASO Off	GAST Def
Run GameRun	#64	#50
Run SuccessRSuc	#21	#43
Run ExplRExp	#41	#95
PPAExp	#25	#72
Run BlockR Blk	#106	-
OL YdsOLY	#64	#56
Stuff RateStuff	#106	#36
TackleTak	-	#91

Georgia Southern Pass Game


CategoryCat	GASO Off	GAST Def
Pass GamePass	#59	#136
Pass SuccessPSuc	#40	#111
Pass ExplPExl	#131	#76
PPAExp	#74	#113
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#34	#83
F7 HavocF7	#63	#63
DB HavocDB	#114	#122

Program Comparison
GASO 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

GAST 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Paulson Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 72° - Wind: 7 mph

Rematch from Week 9
Georgia State 1.0 (63.0)
Georgia Southern won vs Georgia State this year (44-27)

Previous Matchups
Georgia Southern beat Georgia State last year (38-21)
Georgia Southern beat Georgia State in 2023 (44-27)
Georgia State beat Georgia Southern in 2022 (41-33)

GAST's OC Trent McKnight (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Darren Grainger	244	358	68%	2625	20	7	7.3
Mikele Colasurdo	5	8	63%	47	0	0	5.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Marcus Carroll	274	1350	13	4.9	63
Darren Grainger	159	736	10	4.6	65
Freddie Brock (Tr)	30	307	1	10.2	60
KZ Adams	35	61	0	1.7	6

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Robert Lewis	70	881	7	12.6	97
Tailique Williams	49	615	6	12.6	78
Jacari Carter (Tr)	38	276	0	7.3	32
Cadarrius Thompson	25	266	3	10.6	37

View Georgia State's Full Roster

GAST's DC Chad Staggs (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jontrey Hunter	94	7	2	2	4
Justin Abraham	82	8	4	1	2
Jeremiah Johnson	76	5	1	0	0
TyGee Leach (Tr)	70	7	0	1	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Javon Denis	31	7	5	6	0
Kevin Swint (Tr)	32	8	4	3	0
Justin Abraham	82	8	4	1	2
Henry Bryant (Tr)	36	6	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bryquice Brown	34	1	0	1	6
TyGee Leach (Tr)	70	7	0	1	6
Jontrey Hunter	94	7	2	2	4

GASO's OC Bryan Ellis (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Davis Brin (Tr)	362	552	66%	3781	24	19	6.8
JC French (Tr)	13	16	81%	122	1	1	7.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jalen White	160	889	9	5.6	45
OJ Arnold	75	411	4	5.5	39
David Mbadinga	22	112	2	5.1	29
Dalen Cobb	7	51	0	7.3	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Khaleb Hood	101	948	5	9.4	43
Derwin Burgess Jr.	74	813	6	11.0	68
Dalen Cobb	40	601	2	15.0	76
Jjay Mcafee	37	378	4	10.2	32

View Georgia Southern's Full Roster

GASO's DC Brandon Bailey (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marques Watson-Trent	116	13	4	2	2
Tyrell Davis	65	5	0	0	3
Khadry Jackson	57	6	1	2	2
Marc Stampley II	56	3	1	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaac Walker	24	9	6	3	7
Elhadj Fall	19	5	4	1	1
Marques Watson-Trent	116	13	4	2	2
Da'Shawn Davis	25	8	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Shemar Bartholomew	38	3	0	0	14
Damel Hickman (Tr)	36	2	0	1	7
Isaac Walker	24	9	6	3	7