Charlotte at East Carolina - 2023 Matchup Preview

Charlotte 49ers at East Carolina Pirates

Saturday, October 21st 2023 (2:00 PM EDT)
East Carolina -6 (39.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Charlotte 10 - East Carolina: 7 (American Athletic)

49ers (3 - 9) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Biff Poggi (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 14 - 36 (12 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.4 - 8.6 (#127)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ECU 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: East Carolina -9 (SP+ ECU -9)
Projected Score: CHAR: 18 - ECU: 27 (46)
ECU Win prob: 66% | Cover: 50%
CHAR Travel: 191 miles

Pirates (2 - 10) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mike Houston (22 - 27)
Avg Score : 33 - 20 (36 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.5 - 7.5 (#110)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
CHAR Players
ECU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Charlotte's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Charlotte vs South Carolina State	-24.0	44.5	W 24 - 3	U	N
Sat 9/9	Charlotte at Maryland	+24.5	50.0	L 20 - 38	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Charlotte vs Georgia State	+6.5	52.0	L 25 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/23	Charlotte at Florida	+28.0	48.5	L 7 - 22	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Charlotte at SMU	+22.5	53.0	L 16 - 34	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Charlotte vs Navy	+3.5	44.0	L 0 - 14	U	N
Sat 10/21	Charlotte at East Carolina	+6.0	39.5	W 10 - 7	U	Y
Fri 10/27	Charlotte vs Florida Atlantic	+3.5	45.5	L 16 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/4	Charlotte at Tulsa	+4.5	47.5	W 33 - 26	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Charlotte vs Memphis	+9.5	51.5	L 38 - 44	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Charlotte vs Rice	-0.5	46.5	L 7 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/25	Charlotte at South Florida	+7.5	56.5	L 14 - 48	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Charlotte's Schedule

East Carolina's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	East Carolina at Michigan	+36.0	53.5	L 3 - 30	U	Y
Sat 9/9	East Carolina vs Marshall	+3.0	43.5	L 13 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/16	East Carolina at App State	+7.5	48.5	L 28 - 43	O	N
Sat 9/23	East Carolina vs Gardner-Webb	-13.0	51.0	W 44 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/30	East Carolina at Rice	+3.5	47.0	L 17 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/12	East Carolina vs SMU	+11.5	48.5	L 10 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/21	East Carolina vs Charlotte	-6.0	39.5	L 7 - 10	U	N
Sat 10/28	East Carolina at UTSA	+17.5	48.0	L 27 - 41	O	Y
Sat 11/4	East Carolina vs Tulane	+17.0	46.0	L 10 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/11	East Carolina at Florida Atlantic	+7.5	44.5	W 22 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/18	East Carolina at Navy	+2.5	30.5	L 0 - 10	U	N
Sat 11/25	East Carolina vs Tulsa	-4.5	44.5	L 27 - 29	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CHAR	.16	47%	14.3	47%	3.19	116	49%	271	4.07	.35	49%	36.3	48%	51%	4.11	58.5	1.8	1.3
ECU	.28	45%	32.7	45%	3.08	171	45%	290	3.84	.24	45%	20.1	42%	48%	4.14	37.6	0.5	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CHAR		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ECU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CHAR Offense	12	14.3	11.6	47%	4.07	1.8	21	387	116	271	3.7	42%	56%	47%	49%	17%	.16
ECU Defense	13	20.1	19.8	45.1%	4.14	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	39%	59%	42%	48%	18%	.24

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CHAR Defense	12	36.3	37.6	48.7%	4.11	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	56%	42%	48%	51%	13%	.35
ECU Offense	13	32.7	36.2	45%	3.84	0.5	23	461	171	290	5.2	46%	54%	45%	45%	17%	.28

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Charlotte	12	29:32	21.2	40%	35%	6.7	58.5	1.8	1.3	4.9	1.4	0	30.7
East Carolina	13	31:11	22.5	46%	45%	4.3	37.6	0.5	1.5	5.4	1.8	2	30

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CHAR Offense	12	42%	47%	30.9	115.8	3.7	13	.09	3.19	66%	10%	0.98
ECU Defense	13	39%	42%	-	-	-	-	.09	2.83	59%	11%	0.96

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CHAR Defense	12	56%	48%	-	-	-	-	.25	3.29	73%	9%	1.07
ECU Offense	13	46%	45%	32.5	170.6	5.2	25	.21	3.08	68%	9%	1.13

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CHAR Offense	12	56%	49%	21.4	35.8	271.2	7.6	12.7	27	14	.31	1.5	29%	33%	.41	8%	2.2
ECU Defense	13	59%	48%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.39	1.5	31%	36%	.4	7%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CHAR Defense	12	42%	51%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.56	1.7	27%	37%	.74	4%	2.6
ECU Offense	13	54%	45%	24.8	37.2	290.5	7.8	11.7	28	5	.35	1.5	32%	34%	.49	8%	2.1

Charlotte's Power Ratings
Charlotte's Power Rating: -13.58 #128
Charlotte's Offense Rating: 6.97 #130
Charlotte's Defense Rating: 10.44 #77
2023 Talent Rating: 554.96 #79
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Charlotte's 2023 Expected Record: 3.40 - 8.60
Charlotte's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -22.1 #130
Charlotte's Offense SP+ Rating: 14.3 #128
Charlotte's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #113

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 471.63
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Charlotte: -13.58 East Carolina: -8.96

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Charlotte: -22.1 East Carolina: -13.3

East Carolina's Power Ratings
East Carolina's Power Rating: -8.96 #117
East Carolina's Offense Rating: 4.42 #132
East Carolina's Defense Rating: 4.62 #25
2023 Talent Rating: 563.94 #77
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #69
East Carolina's 2023 Expected Record: 4.50 - 7.50
East Carolina's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.3 #111
East Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.1 #126
East Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.3 #81

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 471.63
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Charlotte Scoring
Offense: 14.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 11.6
Defense: 36.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.6

Charlotte's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
East Carolina 27
Charlotte 18

Projected Total Points: 46

East Carolina Scoring
Offense: 32.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.2
Defense: 20.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.8

East Carolina's 2023 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/08	East Carolina	48	Charlotte	22	East Carolina -29.5	Charlotte	56.5	Over
2024	10/05	Charlotte	55	East Carolina	24	East Carolina -9.5	Charlotte	47.5	Over
2023	10/21	East Carolina	7	Charlotte	10	East Carolina -6	Charlotte	39.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
East Carolina	1	0	2 Overs
Charlotte	2	3	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 1	1 - 2	0 - 2	1 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 2	2 - 1	0 - 1	2 - 0

(#128) CHAR at (#117) ECU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	CHAR	ECU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#128	#117
SP+SP+	#130	#111
Perf GradeGrade	#120	#127
OffenseOff	#124	#134
DefenseDef	#88	#71
Spec TeamsST	#29	#91
TalentTal	#79	#77
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#69

Charlotte Injury Report

East Carolina Injury Report

Charlotte on Offense


CategoryCat	CHAR Off	ECU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#124	#71
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#130	#25
SP+SP+	#128	#81
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Charlotte Run Game


CategoryCat	CHAR Off	ECU Def
Run GameRun	#111	#39
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#70	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#14

Charlotte Pass Game


CategoryCat	CHAR Off	ECU Def
Pass GamePass	#128	#107
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#120	#107
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

East Carolina on Offense


CategoryCat	ECU Off	CHAR Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#134	#88
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#132	#77
SP+SP+	#126	#113
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

East Carolina Run Game


CategoryCat	ECU Off	CHAR Def
Run GameRun	#92	#112
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#114	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#83

East Carolina Pass Game


CategoryCat	ECU Off	CHAR Def
Pass GamePass	#115	#18
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#135	#86
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
ECU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'23 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

CHAR 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 8
East Carolina -6.0 (39.5)
Charlotte won at East Carolina this year (10-7)

Previous Matchups
East Carolina beat Charlotte last year (48-22)
Charlotte beat East Carolina in 2024 (55-24)
Charlotte beat East Carolina in 2023 (10-7)

CHAR's OC Mike Miller (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Trexler Ivey	112	203	55%	1263	4	10	6.2
Jalon Jones	67	109	62%	646	2	4	5.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jalon Jones	110	476	4	4.3	58
Terron Kellman	82	328	1	4.0	18
Hahsaun Wilson	54	322	3	6.0	34
Shadrick Byrd	60	211	0	3.5	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jairus Mack	25	453	2	18.1	51
Colin Weber	34	362	0	10.6	45
Jack Hestera	28	349	3	12.5	37
Duane Thomas Jr.	24	244	0	10.2	51

View Charlotte's Full Roster

CHAR's DC Ryan Osborn (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Demetrius Knight II	89	6	2	0	4
Nikhai Hill-Green (Tr)	71	9	2	0	3
Dontae Balfour (Tr)	54	1	0	0	10
Eyabi Anoma	48	10	6	9	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Eyabi Anoma	48	10	6	9	1
Demon Clowney	31	4	3	4	0
Nikhai Hill-Green (Tr)	71	9	2	0	3
Jaren Handy	27	6	2	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Dontae Balfour (Tr)	54	1	0	10
Demetrius Knight II	89	6	2	4
Dontez Fagan	21	3	0	4

ECU's OC Donnie Kirkpatrick (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Alex Flinn	159	290	55%	1558	6	12	5.4
Mason Garcia	48	95	51%	408	1	2	4.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rahjai Harris	129	485	5	3.8	50
Mason Garcia	50	227	2	4.5	57
Javious Bond	41	221	1	5.4	39
Alex Flinn	97	178	0	1.8	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Chase Sowell (Tr)	47	622	1	13.2	45
Jaylen Johnson	45	466	2	10.4	39
Jsi Hatfield	27	341	1	12.6	39
Jhari Patterson	20	137	0	6.9	30

View East Carolina's Full Roster

ECU's DC Blake Harrell (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Julius Wood	87	3	0	1	1
Michael Edwards III	58	8	1	1	0
BJ Davis	57	6	0	2	6
Shavon Revel	55	4	1	0	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
D'Anta Johnson	33	9	4	1	0
Chad Stephens	39	12	4	4	0
Jeremy Lewis	40	9	3	6	1
J.D. Lampley	16	6	2	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
BJ Davis	57	6	0	2	6
Shavon Revel	55	4	1	0	6
Teylor Jackson	51	5	1	3	4