Tulsa at East Carolina - 2023 Matchup Preview
Tulsa logo   Tulsa Golden Hurricane at East Carolina Pirates  East Carolina logo
Saturday, November 25th 2023 (2:00 PM EST)
East Carolina -4.5 (44.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Tulsa 29 - East Carolina: 27  (American Athletic)

 
Golden Hurricane (4 - 8) (5 - 6 - 1)
Coach Kevin Wilson (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 23 - 29 (19 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.7 - 7.3 (#103)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
ECU is playing their 7th straight game
TLSA is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: East Carolina -2.5  (SP+ ECU -1)
Projected Score: TLSA: 23 - ECU: 26 (49)
ECU Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
TLSA Travel: 1039 miles, 1 hrs behind
Pirates (2 - 10) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mike Houston (22 - 27)
Avg Score : 33 - 20 (36 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.5 - 7.5 (#110)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Tulsa's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/31 Tulsa vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff-41.052.5W 42 - 7UN
Sat 9/9 Tulsa at Washington+34.066.5L 10 - 43UY
Sat 9/16 Tulsa vs Oklahoma+28.058.5L 17 - 66ON
Sat 9/23 Tulsa at Northern Illinois+3.554.5W 22 - 14UY
Thu 9/28 Tulsa vs Temple-3.056.0W 48 - 26OY
Sat 10/7 Tulsa at Florida Atlantic+3.054.5L 17 - 20UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/19 Tulsa vs Rice-3.056.5L 10 - 42UN
Sat 10/28 Tulsa at SMU+20.555.0L 10 - 69ON
Sat 11/4 Tulsa vs Charlotte-4.547.5L 26 - 33ON
Sat 11/11 Tulsa at Tulane+24.552.5L 22 - 24UY
Sat 11/18 Tulsa vs North Texas+1.569.5L 28 - 35UN
Sat 11/25 Tulsa at East Carolina+4.544.5W 29 - 27OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Tulsa's Schedule
East Carolina's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 East Carolina at Michigan+36.053.5L 3 - 30UY
Sat 9/9 East Carolina vs Marshall+3.043.5L 13 - 31ON
Sat 9/16 East Carolina at App State+7.548.5L 28 - 43ON
Sat 9/23 East Carolina vs Gardner-Webb-13.051.0W 44 - 0UY
Sat 9/30 East Carolina at Rice+3.547.0L 17 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/12 East Carolina vs SMU+11.548.5L 10 - 31UN
Sat 10/21 East Carolina vs Charlotte-6.039.5L 7 - 10UN
Sat 10/28 East Carolina at UTSA+17.548.0L 27 - 41OY
Sat 11/4 East Carolina vs Tulane+17.046.0L 10 - 13UY
Sat 11/11 East Carolina at Florida Atlantic+7.544.5W 22 - 7UY
Sat 11/18 East Carolina at Navy+2.530.5L 0 - 10UN
Sat 11/25 East Carolina vs Tulsa-4.544.5L 27 - 29ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for East Carolina's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TLSA.2141%23.244%3.0913940%2734.61.2340%28.942%38%4.1556.71.51.7
ECU.2845%32.745%3.0817145%2903.84.2445%20.142%48%4.1437.60.51.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TLSA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ECU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TLSA Offense1223.21941.4%4.611.5214121392733.946%54%44%40%17%.21
ECU Defense1320.119.845.1%4.141.5 - - - - - 39%59%42%48%18%.24
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TLSA Defense1228.930.740.2%4.151.7 - - - - - 56%43%42%38%15%.23
ECU Offense1332.736.245%3.840.5234611712905.246%54%45%45%17%.28

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Tulsa1228:5221.440%65%6.156.71.51.75.21.3028.1
East Carolina1331:1122.546%45%4.337.60.51.55.41.8230
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TLSA Offense1246%44%35.8138.73.918.143.0976%11%0.98
ECU Defense1339%42% - - - - .092.8359%11%0.96
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TLSA Defense1256%42% - - - - .23.1581%10%1.08
ECU Offense1346%45%32.5170.65.225.213.0868%9%1.13

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TLSA Offense1254%40%20.134.6273.27.913.62710.31.831%30%.396%2.4
ECU Defense1359%48% - - - - - - 10.391.531%36%.47%2.1
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TLSA Defense1243%38% - - - - - - 6.31.734%30%.315%1.9
ECU Offense1354%45%24.837.2290.57.811.7285.351.532%34%.498%2.1

Tulsa's Power Ratings
Tulsa's Power Rating: -8.35  #111
Tulsa's Offense Rating: 16.07  #70
Tulsa's Defense Rating: 13.36  #105
2023 Talent Rating: 520.23  #83
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #75
Tulsa's 2023 Expected Record: 4.70 - 7.30
Tulsa's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.2  #115
Tulsa's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.6  #100
Tulsa's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.0  #117

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 471.63
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Tulsa: -8.35   East Carolina: -8.96

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Tulsa: -14.2   East Carolina: -13.3




East Carolina's Power Ratings
East Carolina's Power Rating: -8.96  #117
East Carolina's Offense Rating: 4.42  #132
East Carolina's Defense Rating: 4.62  #25
2023 Talent Rating: 563.94  #77
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #69
East Carolina's 2023 Expected Record: 4.50 - 7.50
East Carolina's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.3  #111
East Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.1  #126
East Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.3  #81

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 471.63
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


Tulsa Scoring
Offense: 23.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 19
Defense: 28.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.7

Tulsa's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
East Carolina 26
Tulsa 23

Projected Total Points: 49
East Carolina Scoring
Offense: 32.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.2
Defense: 20.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.8

East Carolina's 2023 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/16East Carolina41Tulsa27East Carolina -16.5Tulsa54.5Over
202411/14Tulsa31East Carolina38East Carolina -16Tulsa63.5Over
202311/25East Carolina27Tulsa29East Carolina -4.5Tulsa44.5Over
202010/30Tulsa34East Carolina30Tulsa -17East Carolina59.5Over
201911/30East Carolina24Tulsa49Tulsa -7Tulsa64.0Over
201611/05Tulsa45East Carolina24Tulsa -10Tulsa76.5Under
201510/17East Carolina30Tulsa17East Carolina -11East Carolina77.0Under
201411/28Tulsa32East Carolina49East Carolina -17.5Tulsa0
201311/09East Carolina58Tulsa24East Carolina -14East Carolina0
201009/05East Carolina51Tulsa49
200911/15Tulsa17East Carolina44
200812/06Tulsa24East Carolina27
200610/14East Carolina10Tulsa31
200511/12Tulsa45East Carolina13
TeamWinsCoversO/U
East Carolina835 Overs
Tulsa662 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams7 - 75 - 43 - 32 - 1
Road Teams7 - 74 - 51 - 23 - 3

(#111) TLSA at (#117) ECU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTLSAECU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #111 #117
SP+SP+ #115 #111
Perf GradeGrade #95 #127
OffenseOff #51 #134
DefenseDef #124 #71
Spec TeamsST #133 #91
TalentTal #83 #77
Blue ChipsBC% #75 #69
Tulsa on Offense
CategoryCat
TLSA OffECU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #51 #71
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #70 #25
SP+SP+ #100 #81
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Tulsa Run Game
CategoryCat
TLSA OffECU Def
Run GameRun #63 #39
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #52 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #14
Tulsa Pass Game
CategoryCat
TLSA OffECU Def
Pass GamePass #87 #107
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #50 #107
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
East Carolina on Offense
CategoryCatECU OffTLSA Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #134 #124
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #132 #105
SP+SP+ #126 #117
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
East Carolina Run Game
CategoryCat
ECU OffTLSA Def
Run GameRun #92 #123
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #114 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #132
East Carolina Pass Game
CategoryCatECU OffTLSA Def
Pass GamePass #115 #132
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #135 #18
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
ECU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'23 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

TLSA 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'23 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 13
East Carolina -4.5 (44.5)
Tulsa won at East Carolina this year (29-27)

Previous Matchups
East Carolina beat Tulsa last year (41-27)
East Carolina beat Tulsa in 2024 (38-31)
Tulsa beat East Carolina in 2023 (29-27)

  
TLSA's OC Steve Spurrier Jr. (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Cardell Williams7913260%11491078.7
Kirk Francis6812156%967638.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Anthony Watkins19788944.546
Bill Jackson9141414.538
Jordan Ford7829413.822
Cardell Williams5720053.550
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kamdyn Benjamin47727615.551
Carl Chester22401118.257
Devan Williams29399213.842
Marquis Shoulders16283517.780

View Tulsa's Full Roster

TLSA's DC Chris Polizzi (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kendarin Ray (Tr)1314011
Julien Simon (Tr)5810312
Dayne Hodge562000
Ben Kopenski5214940
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ben Kopenski5214940
Owen Ostroski3110430
Julien Simon (Tr)5810312
Mitchell Kulkin393243
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaise Oliver482006
Xavier Lanier150004
Nunu Campbell230003

ECU's OC Donnie Kirkpatrick (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Alex Flinn15929055%15586125.4
Mason Garcia489551%408124.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rahjai Harris12948553.850
Mason Garcia5022724.557
Javious Bond4122115.439
Alex Flinn9717801.821
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chase Sowell (Tr)47622113.245
Jaylen Johnson45466210.439
Jsi Hatfield27341112.639
Jhari Patterson2013706.930

View East Carolina's Full Roster

ECU's DC Blake Harrell (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Julius Wood873011
Michael Edwards III588110
BJ Davis576026
Shavon Revel554106
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
D'Anta Johnson339410
Chad Stephens3912440
Jeremy Lewis409361
J.D. Lampley166221
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
BJ Davis576026
Shavon Revel554106
Teylor Jackson515134