East Carolina at Rice - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 30th 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
Rice -3.5 (47.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Rice 24 - East Carolina: 17 (American Athletic)

Pirates (2 - 10) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mike Houston (22 - 27)
Avg Score : 33 - 20 (31 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.5 - 7.5 (#110)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

RICE is playing their 5th straight game
ECU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Rice -10.5 (SP+ RICE -5)
Projected Score: ECU: 20 - RICE: 30 (50)
RICE Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
ECU Travel: 1124 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Owls (6 - 7) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mike Bloomgren (18 - 40)
Avg Score : 19 - 33 (24 - 32 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.1 - 4.9 (#43)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ECU Players
RICE Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

East Carolina's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	East Carolina at Michigan	+36.0	53.5	L 3 - 30	U	Y
Sat 9/9	East Carolina vs Marshall	+3.0	43.5	L 13 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/16	East Carolina at App State	+7.5	48.5	L 28 - 43	O	N
Sat 9/23	East Carolina vs Gardner-Webb	-13.0	51.0	W 44 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/30	East Carolina at Rice	+3.5	47.0	L 17 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/12	East Carolina vs SMU	+11.5	48.5	L 10 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/21	East Carolina vs Charlotte	-6.0	39.5	L 7 - 10	U	N
Sat 10/28	East Carolina at UTSA	+17.5	48.0	L 27 - 41	O	Y
Sat 11/4	East Carolina vs Tulane	+17.0	46.0	L 10 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/11	East Carolina at Florida Atlantic	+7.5	44.5	W 22 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/18	East Carolina at Navy	+2.5	30.5	L 0 - 10	U	N
Sat 11/25	East Carolina vs Tulsa	-4.5	44.5	L 27 - 29	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for East Carolina's Schedule

Rice's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Rice at Texas	+35.5	59.0	L 10 - 37	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Rice vs Houston	+7.5	51.0	W 43 - 41	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Rice vs Texas Southern	-35.5	60.0	W 59 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Rice at South Florida	-2.5	56.5	L 29 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/30	Rice vs East Carolina	-3.5	47.0	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Rice vs UConn	-10.0	47.5	L 31 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/19	Rice at Tulsa	+3.0	56.5	W 42 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Rice vs Tulane	+10.0	55.0	L 28 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Rice vs SMU	+12.0	59.5	L 31 - 36	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Rice at UTSA	+13.5	53.5	L 14 - 34	U	N
Sat 11/18	Rice at Charlotte	+0.5	46.5	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Rice vs Florida Atlantic	-5.0	46.5	W 24 - 21	U	N
Tue 12/26	Rice vs Texas State	+3.5	58.5	L 21 - 45	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ECU	.28	45%	32.7	45%	3.08	171	45%	290	3.84	.24	45%	20.1	42%	48%	4.14	37.6	0.5	1.5
RICE	.16	42%	19.1	41%	2.99	141	44%	233	3.56	.32	44%	32.9	45%	44%	4.38	53.7	2.5	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ECU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
RICE		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ECU Offense	13	32.7	30.8	45%	3.84	0.5	23	461	171	290	5.2	46%	54%	45%	45%	17%	.28
RICE Defense	13	32.9	32	44.1%	4.38	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	45%	44%	15%	.32

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ECU Defense	13	20.1	20.8	45.1%	4.14	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	39%	59%	42%	48%	18%	.24
RICE Offense	13	19.1	23.9	41.9%	3.56	2.5	20	374	141	233	4	51%	47%	41%	44%	20%	.16

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
East Carolina	13	31:11	22.5	46%	45%	4.3	37.6	0.5	1.5	5.4	1.8	2	30
Rice	13	32:49	20.1	42%	44%	6.1	53.7	2.5	1.5	4.1	1.5	1	28.1

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ECU Offense	13	46%	45%	32.5	170.6	5.2	25	.21	3.08	68%	9%	1.13
RICE Defense	13	49%	45%	-	-	-	-	.28	3.47	67%	9%	1.22

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ECU Defense	13	39%	42%	-	-	-	-	.09	2.83	59%	11%	0.96
RICE Offense	13	51%	41%	35.4	141.4	4	17	.15	2.99	83%	11%	1.01

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ECU Offense	13	54%	45%	24.8	37.2	290.5	7.8	11.7	28	5	.35	1.5	32%	34%	.49	8%	2.1
RICE Defense	13	50%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.41	1.8	31%	33%	.43	6%	2.3

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ECU Defense	13	59%	48%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.39	1.5	31%	36%	.4	7%	2.1
RICE Offense	13	47%	44%	17.9	31	232.8	7.5	13	23	20	.23	1.6	33%	32%	.28	9%	2

East Carolina's Power Ratings
East Carolina's Power Rating: -9.62 #117
East Carolina's Offense Rating: 4.42 #132
East Carolina's Defense Rating: 4.62 #25
2023 Talent Rating: 563.94 #77
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #69
East Carolina's 2023 Expected Record: 4.50 - 7.50
East Carolina's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.3 #111
East Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.1 #126
East Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.3 #81

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 471.63
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
East Carolina: -9.62 Rice: -1.09

SP+ Ratings Matchup
East Carolina: -13.3 Rice: -8.3

Rice's Power Ratings
Rice's Power Rating: -1.09 #57
Rice's Offense Rating: 21.53 #29
Rice's Defense Rating: 10.32 #76
2023 Talent Rating: 466.78 #100
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Rice's 2023 Expected Record: 8.10 - 4.90
Rice's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.3 #95
Rice's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.8 #63
Rice's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.2 #106

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 471.63
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

East Carolina Scoring
Offense: 32.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.8
Defense: 20.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.8

East Carolina's 2023 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Rice 30
East Carolina 20

Projected Total Points: 50

Rice Scoring
Offense: 19.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 23.9
Defense: 32.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 32

Rice's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/30	Rice	24	East Carolina	17	Rice -3.5	Rice	47.0	Under
2010	11/20	Rice	62	East Carolina	38
2009	10/17	East Carolina	49	Rice	13
2006	11/18	Rice	18	East Carolina	17
2005	10/08	East Carolina	41	Rice	28

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Rice	3	1	0 Overs
East Carolina	2	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	5 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 5	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#117) ECU at (#57) RICE

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ECU	RICE
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#117	#57
SP+SP+	#111	#95
Perf GradeGrade	#127	#91
OffenseOff	#134	#102
DefenseDef	#71	#73
Spec TeamsST	#91	#90
TalentTal	#77	#100
Blue ChipsBC%	#69	#75

East Carolina Injury Report

Rice Injury Report

East Carolina on Offense


CategoryCat	ECU Off	RICE Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#134	#73
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#132	#76
SP+SP+	#126	#106
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

East Carolina Run Game


CategoryCat	ECU Off	RICE Def
Run GameRun	#92	#94
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#114	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#62

East Carolina Pass Game


CategoryCat	ECU Off	RICE Def
Pass GamePass	#115	#44
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#135	#89
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Rice on Offense


CategoryCat	RICE Off	ECU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#102	#71
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#29	#25
SP+SP+	#63	#81
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Rice Run Game


CategoryCat	RICE Off	ECU Def
Run GameRun	#84	#39
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#95	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#14

Rice Pass Game


CategoryCat	RICE Off	ECU Def
Pass GamePass	#109	#107
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#127	#107
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
RICE 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Up to Average G5

ECU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'23 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Rice Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 5
Rice -3.5 (47.0)
Rice won vs East Carolina this year (24-17)

Previous Matchups
Rice beat East Carolina in 2023 (24-17)

ECU's OC Donnie Kirkpatrick (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Alex Flinn	159	290	55%	1558	6	12	5.4
Mason Garcia	48	95	51%	408	1	2	4.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rahjai Harris	129	485	5	3.8	50
Mason Garcia	50	227	2	4.5	57
Javious Bond	41	221	1	5.4	39
Alex Flinn	97	178	0	1.8	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Chase Sowell (Tr)	47	622	1	13.2	45
Jaylen Johnson	45	466	2	10.4	39
Jsi Hatfield	27	341	1	12.6	39
Jhari Patterson	20	137	0	6.9	30

View East Carolina's Full Roster

ECU's DC Blake Harrell (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Julius Wood	87	3	0	1	1
Michael Edwards III	58	8	1	1	0
BJ Davis	57	6	0	2	6
Shavon Revel	55	4	1	0	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
D'Anta Johnson	33	9	4	1	0
Chad Stephens	39	12	4	4	0
Jeremy Lewis	40	9	3	6	1
J.D. Lampley	16	6	2	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
BJ Davis	57	6	0	2	6
Shavon Revel	55	4	1	0	6
Teylor Jackson	51	5	1	3	4

RICE's OC Marques Tuiasosopo (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
JT Daniels (Tr)	181	287	63%	2443	21	7	8.5
AJ Padgett	71	117	61%	721	8	6	6.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dean Connors	121	771	7	6.4	57
Juma Otoviano	92	326	4	3.5	24
Luke McCaffrey	15	117	0	7.8	40
Ari Broussard	29	91	0	3.1	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Luke McCaffrey	71	992	13	14.0	51
Dean Connors	43	403	3	9.4	80
Boden Groen	39	383	3	9.8	31
Landon Ransom-Goelz	26	380	3	14.6	44

View Rice's Full Roster

RICE's DC Brian Smith (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Myron Morrison	68	3	1	4	0
Plae Wyatt	65	3	1	2	5
Gabe Taylor	46	1	1	2	8
Chris Conti	45	3	1	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chike Anigbogu	18	3	2	0	0
De'Braylon Carroll	38	8	2	5	0
Jonathan Jean	34	4	2	0	1
DJ Arkansas	31	2	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tre'Shon Devones	38	2	0	0	9
Gabe Taylor	46	1	1	2	8
Tyson Flowers	23	2	1	0	5