East Carolina at UTSA - 2023 Matchup Preview

East Carolina Pirates at UTSA Roadrunners

Saturday, October 28th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
UT San Antonio -17.5 (48.0) (0) Open: 0.0
UTSA 41 - East Carolina: 27 (American Athletic)

Pirates (2 - 10) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mike Houston (22 - 27)
Avg Score : 33 - 20 (31 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.5 - 7.5 (#110)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UTSA is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: UTSA -17 (SP+ UTSA -18)
Projected Score: ECU: 19 - UTSA: 36 (55)
UTSA Win prob: 89% | Cover: 51%
ECU Travel: 1299 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Roadrunners (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jeff Traylor (31 - 12)
Avg Score : 36 - 29 (46 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 4.4 (#32)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ECU Players
UTSA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

East Carolina's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	East Carolina at Michigan	+36.0	53.5	L 3 - 30	U	Y
Sat 9/9	East Carolina vs Marshall	+3.0	43.5	L 13 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/16	East Carolina at App State	+7.5	48.5	L 28 - 43	O	N
Sat 9/23	East Carolina vs Gardner-Webb	-13.0	51.0	W 44 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/30	East Carolina at Rice	+3.5	47.0	L 17 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/12	East Carolina vs SMU	+11.5	48.5	L 10 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/21	East Carolina vs Charlotte	-6.0	39.5	L 7 - 10	U	N
Sat 10/28	East Carolina at UTSA	+17.5	48.0	L 27 - 41	O	Y
Sat 11/4	East Carolina vs Tulane	+17.0	46.0	L 10 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/11	East Carolina at Florida Atlantic	+7.5	44.5	W 22 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/18	East Carolina at Navy	+2.5	30.5	L 0 - 10	U	N
Sat 11/25	East Carolina vs Tulsa	-4.5	44.5	L 27 - 29	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for East Carolina's Schedule

UTSA's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	UTSA at Houston	-2.5	59.5	L 14 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/9	UTSA vs Texas State	-13.5	66.5	W 20 - 13	U	N
Fri 9/15	UTSA vs Army	-7.0	42.0	L 29 - 37	O	N
Sat 9/23	UTSA at Tennessee	+24.0	59.0	L 14 - 45	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7	UTSA at Temple	-14.0	56.0	W 49 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/14	UTSA vs UAB	-9.0	67.0	W 41 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/21	UTSA at Florida Atlantic	-2.5	58.5	W 36 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/28	UTSA vs East Carolina	-17.5	48.0	W 41 - 27	O	N
Sat 11/4	UTSA at North Texas	-7.5	71.0	W 37 - 29	U	Y
Sat 11/11	UTSA vs Rice	-13.5	53.5	W 34 - 14	U	Y
Fri 11/17	UTSA vs South Florida	-14.5	65.5	W 49 - 21	O	Y
Fri 11/24	UTSA at Tulane	+2.5	51.5	L 16 - 29	U	N
Tue 12/19	UTSA vs Marshall	-7.0	47.0	W 35 - 17	O	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ECU	.28	45%	32.7	45%	3.08	171	45%	290	3.84	.24	45%	20.1	42%	48%	4.14	37.6	0.5	1.5
UTSA	.31	49%	35.5	46%	3.41	176	53%	300	4.28	.16	36%	28.8	34%	38%	3.18	62.6	1.4	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ECU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UTSA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ECU Offense	13	32.7	30.8	45%	3.84	0.5	23	461	171	290	5.2	46%	54%	45%	45%	17%	.28
UTSA Defense	14	28.8	25.5	35.8%	3.18	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	48%	51%	34%	38%	21%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ECU Defense	13	20.1	20.8	45.1%	4.14	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	39%	59%	42%	48%	18%	.24
UTSA Offense	14	35.5	45.8	49.3%	4.28	1.4	26	476	176	300	4.5	48%	52%	46%	53%	14%	.31

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
East Carolina	13	31:11	22.5	46%	45%	4.3	37.6	0.5	1.5	5.4	1.8	2	30
UTSA	14	29:44	25.9	49%	48%	7.1	62.6	1.4	1.7	6.4	1.8	2	30.6

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ECU Offense	13	46%	45%	32.5	170.6	5.2	25	.21	3.08	68%	9%	1.13
UTSA Defense	14	48%	34%	-	-	-	-	.1	2.65	67%	12%	1.24

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ECU Defense	13	39%	42%	-	-	-	-	.09	2.83	59%	11%	0.96
UTSA Offense	14	48%	46%	38.8	175.6	4.5	28	.21	3.41	75%	9%	0.99

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ECU Offense	13	54%	45%	24.8	37.2	290.5	7.8	11.7	28	5	.35	1.5	32%	34%	.49	8%	2.1
UTSA Defense	14	51%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	15	.25	1.7	36%	28%	.31	8%	2.3

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ECU Defense	13	59%	48%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.39	1.5	31%	36%	.4	7%	2.1
UTSA Offense	14	52%	53%	24.4	35.9	300.4	8.4	12.3	34	9	.44	1.5	27%	38%	.49	6%	2

East Carolina's Power Ratings
East Carolina's Power Rating: -9.62 #117
East Carolina's Offense Rating: 4.42 #132
East Carolina's Defense Rating: 4.62 #25
2023 Talent Rating: 563.94 #77
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #69
East Carolina's 2023 Expected Record: 4.50 - 7.50
East Carolina's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.3 #111
East Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.1 #126
East Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.3 #81

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 471.63
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
East Carolina: -9.62 UTSA: 5.32

SP+ Ratings Matchup
East Carolina: -13.3 UTSA: 4.2

UTSA's Power Ratings
UTSA's Power Rating: 5.32 #55
UTSA's Offense Rating: 18.48 #51
UTSA's Defense Rating: 7.49 #43
2023 Talent Rating: 574.52 #74
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
UTSA's 2023 Expected Record: 8.60 - 4.40
UTSA's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.2 #49
UTSA's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.6 #42
UTSA's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #75

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 471.63
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

East Carolina Scoring
Offense: 32.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.8
Defense: 20.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.8

East Carolina's 2023 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
UTSA 36
East Carolina 19

Projected Total Points: 55

UTSA Scoring
Offense: 35.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 45.8
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.5

UTSA's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/22	UTSA	58	East Carolina	24	East Carolina -2.0	UTSA	62.5	Over
2024	09/28	East Carolina	30	UTSA	20	East Carolina -2	East Carolina	53.5	Under
2023	10/28	UTSA	41	East Carolina	27	UT San Antonio -17.5	East Carolina	48.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UTSA	2	1	2 Overs
East Carolina	1	2	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 0	2 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 3	1 - 2	0 - 1	1 - 1

(#117) ECU at (#55) UTSA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ECU	UTSA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#117	#55
SP+SP+	#111	#49
Perf GradeGrade	#127	#65
OffenseOff	#134	#53
DefenseDef	#71	#73
Spec TeamsST	#91	#122
TalentTal	#77	#74
Blue ChipsBC%	#69	#75

East Carolina Injury Report

UTSA Injury Report

East Carolina on Offense


CategoryCat	ECU Off	UTSA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#134	#73
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#132	#43
SP+SP+	#126	#75
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

East Carolina Run Game


CategoryCat	ECU Off	UTSA Def
Run GameRun	#92	#55
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#114	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#96

East Carolina Pass Game


CategoryCat	ECU Off	UTSA Def
Pass GamePass	#115	#112
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#135	#24
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

UTSA on Offense


CategoryCat	UTSA Off	ECU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#53	#71
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#51	#25
SP+SP+	#42	#81
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

UTSA Run Game


CategoryCat	UTSA Off	ECU Def
Run GameRun	#40	#39
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#83	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#14

UTSA Pass Game


CategoryCat	UTSA Off	ECU Def
Pass GamePass	#71	#107
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#106	#107
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
UTSA 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'23 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

ECU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'23 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Alamodome
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 9
UTSA -17.5 (48.0)
UTSA won vs East Carolina this year (41-27)

Previous Matchups
UTSA beat East Carolina last year (58-24)
East Carolina beat UTSA in 2024 (30-20)
UTSA beat East Carolina in 2023 (41-27)

ECU's OC Donnie Kirkpatrick (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Alex Flinn	159	290	55%	1558	6	12	5.4
Mason Garcia	48	95	51%	408	1	2	4.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rahjai Harris	129	485	5	3.8	50
Mason Garcia	50	227	2	4.5	57
Javious Bond	41	221	1	5.4	39
Alex Flinn	97	178	0	1.8	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Chase Sowell (Tr)	47	622	1	13.2	45
Jaylen Johnson	45	466	2	10.4	39
Jsi Hatfield	27	341	1	12.6	39
Jhari Patterson	20	137	0	6.9	30

View East Carolina's Full Roster

ECU's DC Blake Harrell (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Julius Wood	87	3	0	1	1
Michael Edwards III	58	8	1	1	0
BJ Davis	57	6	0	2	6
Shavon Revel	55	4	1	0	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
D'Anta Johnson	33	9	4	1	0
Chad Stephens	39	12	4	4	0
Jeremy Lewis	40	9	3	6	1
J.D. Lampley	16	6	2	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
BJ Davis	57	6	0	2	6
Shavon Revel	55	4	1	0	6
Teylor Jackson	51	5	1	3	4

UTSA's OC Justin Burke (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Frank Harris	218	336	65%	2506	18	8	7.5
Owen McCown (Tr)	43	58	74%	442	4	3	7.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kevorian Barnes	147	715	6	4.9	44
Robert Henry	127	588	11	4.6	43
Rocko Griffin (Tr)	91	483	6	5.3	69
Frank Harris	86	323	4	3.8	40

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Joshua Cephus	89	1151	10	12.9	84
Tykee Ogle-Kellogg	33	575	7	17.4	46
Devin Mccuin	42	546	3	13.0	72
Oscar Cardenas	32	280	2	8.8	28

View UTSA's Full Roster

UTSA's DC Jess Loepp (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ken Robinson	65	2	0	1	4
Jamal Ligon	62	7	1	5	1
Martavius French	61	5	2	4	3
Rashad Wisdom	61	2	2	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trey Moore	45	18	14	3	3
Brandon Matterson	14	6	5	5	0
Jimmori Robinson	40	11	5	10	2
Nick Booker-Brown	18	7	3	1	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kameryn Alexander (Tr)	34	2	1	1	15
Nicktroy Fortune	26	1	0	2	9
Ken Robinson	65	2	0	1	4