East Carolina at Navy - 2023 Matchup Preview

East Carolina Pirates at Navy Midshipmen

Saturday, November 18th 2023 (12:00 PM EST)
Navy -2.5 (30.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Navy 10 - East Carolina: 0 (American Athletic)

Pirates (2 - 10) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mike Houston (22 - 27)
Avg Score : 17 - 22 (16 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.5 - 7.5 (#110)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ECU 2nd straight Road Game
NAVY 2nd straight Home Game
ECU is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Navy -2 (SP+ ECU -0.5)
Projected Score: ECU: 17 - NAVY: 19 (35)
NAVY Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
ECU Travel: 239 miles

Midshipmen (5 - 7) (4 - 7 - 1)
Coach Brian Newberry (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 18 - 22 (21 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.2 - 6.8 (#95)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ECU Players
NAVY Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

East Carolina's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	East Carolina at Michigan	+36.0	53.5	L 3 - 30	U	Y
Sat 9/9	East Carolina vs Marshall	+3.0	43.5	L 13 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/16	East Carolina at App State	+7.5	48.5	L 28 - 43	O	N
Sat 9/23	East Carolina vs Gardner-Webb	-13.0	51.0	W 44 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/30	East Carolina at Rice	+3.5	47.0	L 17 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/12	East Carolina vs SMU	+11.5	48.5	L 10 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/21	East Carolina vs Charlotte	-6.0	39.5	L 7 - 10	U	N
Sat 10/28	East Carolina at UTSA	+17.5	48.0	L 27 - 41	O	Y
Sat 11/4	East Carolina vs Tulane	+17.0	46.0	L 10 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/11	East Carolina at Florida Atlantic	+7.5	44.5	W 22 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/18	East Carolina at Navy	+2.5	30.5	L 0 - 10	U	N
Sat 11/25	East Carolina vs Tulsa	-4.5	44.5	L 27 - 29	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for East Carolina's Schedule

Navy's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	Navy vs Notre Dame	+20.5	49.0	L 3 - 42	U	N
Sat 9/9	Navy vs Wagner	-43.5	49.0	W 24 - 0	U	N
Thu 9/14	Navy at Memphis	+12.5	47.0	L 24 - 28	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/30	Navy vs South Florida	-4.0	54.0	L 30 - 44	O	N
Sat 10/7	Navy vs North Texas	-6.5	60.5	W 27 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/14	Navy at Charlotte	-3.5	44.0	W 14 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Navy vs Air Force	+11.0	34.0	L 6 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Navy at Temple	-7.0	46.0	L 18 - 32	O	N
Sat 11/11	Navy vs UAB	+3.5	52.5	W 31 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Navy vs East Carolina	-2.5	30.5	W 10 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Navy at SMU	+20.0	46.0	L 14 - 59	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 12/9	Navy vs Army	+2.0	28.0	L 11 - 17	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ECU	#132 (.02)	33% (132)	17.3	35% (128)	2.85 (111)	112	32% (130)	164	2.62 (129)	#40 (.14)	34% (6)	22.4	30% (2)	39% (37)	2.84 (8)	54.3	1.8	1.3
NAVY	#121 (.07)	37% (117)	17.7	39% (111)	2.86 (108)	195	32% (131)	106	2.38 (133)	#45 (.15)	41% (51)	22.4	37% (23)	45% (114)	2.84 (7)	46	1	2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ECU	#49 (.22)	43% (62)		44% (71)	3.07 (57)	147	43% (54)	253	3.79 (83)	#64 (.16)	40% (40)		37% (11)	43% (86)	3.85 (76)	61	2.2	1.6
NAVY	#12 (.31)	44% (51)		46% (43)	3.27 (32)	231	39% (101)	117	4.39 (26)	#28 (.1)	41% (61)		46% (95)	37% (24)	3.48 (35)	41.9	1.1	1.8

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ECU Offense	12	17.3	16.2	33.3%	2.62	1.8	15	276	112	164	3.5	46%	53%	35%	32%	20%	.02
NAVY Defense	12	22.4	15.2	40.6%	2.84	2	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	37%	45%	17%	.15

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ECU Defense	12	22.4	25.8	34.3%	2.84	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	30%	39%	20%	.14
NAVY Offense	12	17.7	21.3	37.1%	2.38	1	15	300	195	106	4.3	71%	29%	39%	32%	14%	.07

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
East Carolina	12	28:59	15.1	30%	35%	5.8	54.3	1.8	1.3	6.9	1.5	2	30.6
Navy	12	31:15	14.5	29%	62%	5.7	46	1	2	5.2	2.3	1	32.4

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ECU Offense	12	46% (98)	35% (128)	32.2	111.7	3.5	12 (116)	.03 (123)	2.85 (111)	71% (90)	12% (108)	0.97 (87)
NAVY Defense	12	50% (67)	37% (23)	-	-	-	-	.02 (15)	2.87 (30)	67% (34)	11% (36)	0.86 (16)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ECU Defense	12	51% (88)	30% (2)	-	-	-	-	-.01 (13)	2.53 (7)	74% (76)	13% (8)	1.19 (124)
NAVY Offense	12	71% (3)	39% (111)	45.7	194.6	4.3	16 (89)	.07 (110)	2.86 (108)	72% (83)	12% (101)	1.02 (57)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ECU Offense	12	53% (37)	32% (130)	17.3	32.3	163.9	5.1	9.5	7 (129)	14 (107)	.05 (129)	1.5 (92)	38% (133)	22% (129)	.11 (127)	8% (116)	2.1 (55)
NAVY Defense	12	49% (65)	45% (114)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.33 (103)	1.6 (75)	31% (97)	28% (40)	.34 (83)	6% (88)	2.2 (113)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ECU Defense	12	48% (55)	39% (37)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (120)	.32 (100)	1.8 (126)	38% (6)	33% (107)	.43 (116)	6% (53)	2.2 (98)
NAVY Offense	12	29% (131)	32% (131)	8.5	16.6	105.7	6.4	12.4	10 (120)	5 (6)	.11 (121)	1.8 (15)	31% (61)	21% (132)	.06 (131)	2% (3)	2 (88)

East Carolina's Power Ratings
East Carolina's Power Rating: -9.62 #117
East Carolina's Offense Rating: 4.42 #132
East Carolina's Defense Rating: 4.62 #25
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #69
East Carolina's 2023 Expected Record: 4.50 - 7.50
East Carolina's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.3 #111
East Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.1 #126
East Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.3 #81

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
East Carolina: -9.62 Navy: -9.22

SP+ Ratings Matchup
East Carolina: -13.3 Navy: -13.9

Navy's Power Ratings
Navy's Power Rating: -9.22 #116
Navy's Offense Rating: 8.74 #126
Navy's Defense Rating: 5.60 #30
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Navy's 2023 Expected Record: 5.20 - 6.80
Navy's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.9 #114
Navy's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #124
Navy's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #72

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

East Carolina Scoring
Offense: 17.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.2
Defense: 22.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.8

East Carolina's 2023 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Navy 19
East Carolina 17

Total Points: 35

Navy Scoring
Offense: 17.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.3
Defense: 22.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.2

Navy's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 1
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/29	East Carolina	20	Navy	34	Navy	East Carolina -2.5	Navy	54.0	Push
2023	11/18	Navy	10	East Carolina	0	Navy	Navy -2.5	Navy	30.5	Under
2022	09/24	East Carolina	20	Navy	23	Navy	East Carolina -16.5	Navy	48.5	Under
2021	11/20	Navy	35	East Carolina	38	East Carolina	East Carolina -3.5	Navy	46.0	Over
2020	10/17	East Carolina	23	Navy	27	Navy	Navy -3	Navy	55.5	Under
2019	09/14	Navy	42	East Carolina	10	Navy	Navy -7.5	Navy	53.0	Under
2016	11/19	East Carolina	31	Navy	66	Navy	Navy -8	Navy	64.0	Over
2015	09/19	Navy	45	East Carolina	21	Navy	Navy -1.5	Navy	58.0	Over
2012	10/27	East Carolina	28	Navy	56	Navy
2011	10/22	Navy	35	East Carolina	38	East Carolina
2010	11/06	East Carolina	35	Navy	76	Navy
2006	09/02	Navy	28	East Carolina	23	Navy

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Navy	10	8	3 Overs
East Carolina	2	0	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 8	4 - 4	3 - 2	1 - 2
Road Teams	8 - 4	4 - 4	2 - 1	2 - 3

(#117) East Carolina Info
Power Rating: -9.62 #117
Offense Rating: 4.42 #132
Defense Rating: 4.62 #25
Overall SP+ Rating: -13.3 #111
Offense SP+ Rating: 15.1 #126
Defense SP+ Rating: 28.3 #81
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #69
Expected Record: 4.50 - 7.50

East Carolina has won 1 straight
East Carolina has won 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 5 (3 - 3 - 0 vs Spread )

East Carolina Highlights
East Carolina has a really good defense (#34)
East Carolina defense is really good in red zone (#20)
East Carolina has a good run defense (#44)
East Carolina Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#5)
East Carolina Defensive Line is very good (#15)
East Carolina Front 7 is disruptive (#3)

East Carolina Deficiencies
East Carolina has a really bad Offense
East Carolina Can Not Run the Ball (#86)
East Carolina throws a Lot of Interceptions (#23)
East Carolina offense is really bad (#73)
East Carolina offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#66)
East Carolina run game is really bad (#132)
East Carolina pass game is really bad (#23)
East Carolina offense is bad on 3rd Downs
East Carolina does not Sack the QB (#31)
East Carolina gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#91)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCat	NAVY	ECU
OverallOver	#87	#106
OffenseOff	#97	#115
DefenseDef	#53	#57
Special TeamsST	#42	#72
PassingPass	#107	#97
RushingRush	#91	#65
Run BlockRBLK	#17	#87
Pass BlockPBLK	#118	#117
Route RunningWR Rt	#113	#114
TacklingTkl	#77	#12
Run DefenseR Def	#54	#34
Pass Rush DefPRush	#69	#82
Coverage DefCov	#72	#87

Rematch from Week 12
Navy -2.5 (30.5)
Navy won vs East Carolina this year (10-0)

Previous Matchups
Navy beat East Carolina last year (34-20)
Navy beat East Carolina in 2023 (10-0)
Navy beat East Carolina in 2022 (23-20)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: ECU | NAVY
Depth Chart: ECU | NAVY
Rosters: ECU | NAVY

(#116) Navy Info
Power Rating: -9.22 #116
Offense Rating: 8.74 #126
Defense Rating: 5.60 #30
Overall SP+ Rating: -13.9 #114
Offense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #124
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #72
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 5.20 - 6.80

Navy has won 1 straight
Navy has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 4 - 2 (2 - 3 - 1 vs Spread)

Navy Highlights
Navy defense is really good in red zone (#73)
Navy has a good run defense (#23)
Navy Defensive Line is very good (#37)
Navy has a great TO Margin (#54)

Navy Deficiencies
Navy has a really bad Offense
Navy offense is really bad (#5)
Navy offense is not Explosive (#102)
Navy offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#31)
Navy run game is really bad (#4)
Navy pass game is really bad (#32)
Navy offense is bad on 3rd Downs

East Carolina's OC Donnie Kirkpatrick

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Alex Flinn	159	290	55%	1558	6	12	5.4
Mason Garcia	48	95	51%	408	1	2	4.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rahjai Harris	129	485	5	3.8	50
Mason Garcia	50	227	2	4.5	57
Javious Bond	41	221	1	5.4	39
Alex Flinn	97	178	0	1.8	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Chase Sowell (Tr)	47	622	1	13.2	45
Jaylen Johnson	45	466	2	10.4	39
Jsi Hatfield	27	341	1	12.6	39
Jhari Patterson	20	137	0	6.9	30

View East Carolina's Full Roster

East Carolina's DC Blake Harrell

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Julius Wood	87	3	0	1	1
Michael Edwards III	58	8	1	1	0
BJ Davis	57	6	0	2	6
Shavon Revel	55	4	1	0	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
D'Anta Johnson	33	9	4	1	0
Chad Stephens	39	12	4	4	0
Jeremy Lewis	40	9	3	6	1
J.D. Lampley	16	6	2	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
BJ Davis	57	6	0	2	6
Shavon Revel	55	4	1	0	6
Teylor Jackson	51	5	1	3	4

Navy's OC Grant Chesnut

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tai Lavatai	56	101	55%	701	5	2	6.9
Xavier Arline	23	44	52%	320	2	2	7.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Alex Tecza	126	758	5	6.0	75
Daba Fofana	72	283	3	3.9	20
Xavier Arline	77	257	2	3.3	50
Tai Lavatai	75	245	2	3.3	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Eli Heidenreich	19	382	4	20.1	69
Brandon Chatman	19	254	0	13.4	58
Jayden Umbarger	14	145	1	10.4	22
Alex Tecza	16	97	0	6.1	16

View Navy's Full Roster

Navy's DC P.J. Volker

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Colin Ramos	94	8	2	6	4
Will Harbour	76	8	3	4	0
Rayuan Lane	62	3	1	1	7
Mbiti Williams Jr.	55	0	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Justin Reed	44	8	5	5	1
Landon Robinson	28	5	4	1	0
Luke Pirris	52	9	4	1	3
Will Harbour	76	8	3	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Rayuan Lane	62	3	1	1	7
Colin Ramos	94	8	2	6	4
Dashaun Peele	32	1	0	0	4