Houston at Texas Tech - 2023 Matchup Preview

Houston Cougars at Texas Tech Red Raiders(#12)

Saturday, September 30th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Texas Tech -8.5 (52.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Texas Tech 49 - Houston: 28 (Big 12)

Cougars (4 - 8) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Dana Holgorsen (28 - 22)
Avg Score : 24 - 32 (21 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.8 - 8.2 (#122)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 16.1 MPH
TTU is playing their 5th straight game
HOU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Texas Tech -13 (SP+ TTU -12)
Projected Score: HOU: 21 - TTU: 34 (55)
TTU Win prob: 71% | Cover: 46%
HOU Travel: 467 miles

Red Raiders (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Joey McGuire (9 - 7)
Avg Score : 27 - 26 (33 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.3 - 6.7 (#72)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
HOU Players
TTU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Houston's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Houston vs UTSA	+2.5	59.5	W 17 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Houston at Rice	-7.5	51.0	L 41 - 43	O	N
Sat 9/16	Houston vs TCU	+7.5	64.0	L 13 - 36	U	N
Sat 9/23	Houston vs Sam Houston	-11.5	37.0	W 38 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Houston at Texas Tech	+8.5	52.0	L 28 - 49	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/12	Houston vs West Virginia	+3.0	49.5	W 41 - 39	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Houston vs Texas	+24.0	60.5	L 24 - 31	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Houston at Kansas State	+17.5	61.0	L 0 - 41	U	N
Sat 11/4	Houston at Baylor	+3.0	58.5	W 25 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Houston vs Cincinnati	-3.5	53.5	L 14 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/18	Houston vs Oklahoma State	+6.5	56.5	L 30 - 43	O	N
Sat 11/25	Houston at UCF	+15.5	61.5	L 13 - 27	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Houston's Schedule

Texas Tech's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Texas Tech at Wyoming	-13.0	50.5	L 33 - 35	O	N
Sat 9/9	Texas Tech vs Oregon	+4.5	70.0	L 30 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/16	Texas Tech vs Tarleton State	-36.5	75.5	W 41 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Texas Tech at West Virginia	-6.0	53.5	L 13 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/30	Texas Tech vs Houston	-8.5	52.0	W 49 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Texas Tech at Baylor	-2.5	59.5	W 39 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Texas Tech vs Kansas State	-1.0	57.0	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/21	Texas Tech at BYU	-3.0	49.0	L 14 - 27	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/2	Texas Tech vs TCU	-2.5	59.5	W 35 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Texas Tech at Kansas	+3.5	61.5	W 16 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Texas Tech vs UCF	-2.0	59.0	W 24 - 23	U	N
Fri 11/24	Texas Tech at Texas	+16.5	53.5	L 7 - 57	O	N
Sat 12/16	Texas Tech vs California	-3.5	54.5	W 34 - 14	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
HOU	#104 (.13)	40% (97)	23.7	39% (110)	2.97 (96)	119	41% (75)	241	3.44 (100)	#114 (.26)	47% (126)	31.5	47% (104)	48% (130)	4.26 (111)	49.2	1.3	1.2
TTU	#92 (.15)	42% (59)	27.4	47% (26)	3.36 (17)	163	39% (97)	224	3.91 (70)	#51 (.16)	41% (54)	26	42% (63)	40% (51)	3.46 (42)	49.9	1.8	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
HOU	#133 (-)	35% (129)		35% (130)	2.52 (129)	137	37% (115)	153	2.57 (134)	#51 (.14)	40% (41)		40% (41)	39% (49)	3.52 (41)	51.9	2.3	1.6
TTU	#33 (.25)	44% (50)		45% (49)	3.17 (45)	150	43% (51)	275	4.73 (7)	#104 (.23)	44% (93)		44% (76)	44% (101)	3.97 (83)	59.4	1.5	1.6

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
HOU Offense	12	23.7	21.4	39.7%	3.44	1.3	19	360	119	241	4	42%	56%	39%	41%	14%	.13
TTU Defense	13	26	26.3	40.9%	3.46	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	48%	51%	42%	40%	15%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
HOU Defense	12	31.5	36.8	46.7%	4.26	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	51%	47%	47%	48%	13%	.26
TTU Offense	13	27.4	33.3	42.5%	3.91	1.8	22	387	163	224	4.5	47%	51%	47%	39%	15%	.15

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Houston	12	27:56	19.2	36%	26%	5.7	49.2	1.3	1.2	5	1.9	3	28.2
Texas Tech	13	28:45	21.9	40%	65%	5.4	49.9	1.8	1.3	5.2	2.2	3	30

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
HOU Offense	12	42% (115)	39% (110)	29.9	118.8	4	10 (124)	.06 (116)	2.97 (96)	59% (129)	9% (57)	0.98 (82)
TTU Defense	13	48% (42)	42% (63)	-	-	-	-	.15 (73)	3.14 (76)	61% (11)	9% (101)	1 (74)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
HOU Defense	12	51% (89)	47% (104)	-	-	-	-	.23 (111)	3.24 (101)	75% (79)	8% (110)	1.05 (93)
TTU Offense	13	47% (90)	47% (26)	36.5	162.8	4.5	17 (81)	.21 (32)	3.36 (17)	76% (47)	7% (12)	0.99 (69)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
HOU Offense	12	56% (24)	41% (75)	21.7	33.9	241.4	7.1	11.1	24 (41)	13 (97)	.25 (77)	1.5 (86)	34% (94)	25% (111)	.18 (107)	5% (20)	2.1 (56)
TTU Defense	13	51% (88)	40% (51)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.21 (37)	1.5 (22)	30% (100)	28% (42)	.32 (74)	6% (71)	2.2 (108)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
HOU Defense	12	47% (40)	48% (130)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.35 (108)	1.5 (27)	30% (98)	38% (128)	.47 (125)	4% (124)	2.1 (91)
TTU Offense	13	51% (46)	39% (97)	21.8	36.2	223.8	6.2	10.2	24 (41)	18 (128)	.16 (111)	1.5 (116)	30% (44)	27% (94)	.24 (97)	8% (118)	1.9 (120)

Houston's Power Ratings
Houston's Power Rating: -6.49 #97
Houston's Offense Rating: 13.48 #95
Houston's Defense Rating: 14.57 #113
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 8% #53
Houston's 2023 Expected Record: 3.80 - 8.20
Houston's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.3 #95
Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.5 #73
Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.5 #104

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Houston: -6.49 Texas Tech: 5.65

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Houston: -8.3 Texas Tech: 3.7

Texas Tech's Power Ratings
Texas Tech's Power Rating: 5.65 #49
Texas Tech's Offense Rating: 15.06 #81
Texas Tech's Defense Rating: 7.91 #46
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 11 #43
Texas Tech's 2023 Expected Record: 6.30 - 6.70
Texas Tech's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.7 #52
Texas Tech's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #53
Texas Tech's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #61

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Houston Scoring
Offense: 23.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.4
Defense: 31.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 36.8

Houston's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Texas Tech 34
Houston 21

Total Points: 55

Based on Last 4 Games
Texas Tech 33
Houston 27

Total Points: 60

Based on Entire Season
Texas Tech 33
Houston 24

Total Points: 57

Texas Tech Scoring
Offense: 27.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.3
Defense: 26 PPG
Defense at Home: 26.3

Texas Tech's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/04	Houston	11	Texas Tech	35	Texas Tech -13.5	Texas Tech	51.5	Under
2023	09/30	Texas Tech	49	Houston	28	Texas Tech -8.5	Texas Tech	52.0	Over
2022	09/10	Texas Tech	33	Houston	30	Texas Tech -3.5	Houston	62.5	Over
2021	09/04	Houston	21	Texas Tech	38	Houston -2.5	Texas Tech	63.0	Under
2018	09/15	Texas Tech	63	Houston	49	Texas Tech -1	Texas Tech	68.0	Over
2017	09/23	Houston	24	Texas Tech	27	Houston -7	Texas Tech	68.0	Under
2010	11/27	Texas Tech	35	Houston	20
2009	09/26	Houston	29	Texas Tech	28

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Texas Tech	7	5	3 Overs
Houston	1	1	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	5 - 3	2 - 4	2 - 3	0 - 1
Road Teams	3 - 5	4 - 2	1 - 0	3 - 2

(#97) HOU at (#49) TTU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	HOU	TTU
Power RatePwr	#97	#49
SP+SP+	#95	#52
Perf GradeGrade	#99	#47
OffenseOff	#72	#56
DefenseDef	#113	#55
Spec TeamsST	#111	#31
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#53	#43

Houston Injury Report

Texas Tech Injury Report

Houston on Offense


CategoryCat	HOU Off	TTU Def
Perf GradePerf	#72	#55
SuccessSuc	#97	#54
ExplosiveExp	#60	#40
PPAPPA	#104	#51
PowerPwr	#95	#46
SP+SP+	#73	#61
Pts POPPO	#100	#42
HavocHav	#41	#91

Houston Run Game


CategoryCat	HOU Off	TTU Def
Run GameRun	#102	#69
Run SuccessRSuc	#110	#63
Run ExplRExp	#82	#74
PPAExp	#116	#73
Run BlockR Blk	#62	-
OL YdsOLY	#96	#76
Stuff RateStuff	#116	#73
TackleTak	-	#12

Houston Pass Game


CategoryCat	HOU Off	TTU Def
Pass GamePass	#63	#52
Pass SuccessPSuc	#75	#51
Pass ExplPExl	#86	#22
PPAExp	#77	#37
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#46	#75
F7 HavocF7	#57	#101
DB HavocDB	#20	#71

Texas Tech on Offense


CategoryCat	TTU Off	HOU Def
Perf GradePerf	#56	#113
SuccessSuc	#59	#126
ExplosiveExp	#107	#51
PPAPPA	#92	#114
PowerPwr	#81	#113
SP+SP+	#53	#104
Pts POPPO	#70	#111
HavocHav	#52	#121

Texas Tech Run Game


CategoryCat	TTU Off	HOU Def
Run GameRun	#20	#92
Run SuccessRSuc	#26	#104
Run ExplRExp	#69	#93
PPAExp	#32	#111
Run BlockR Blk	#43	-
OL YdsOLY	#17	#101
Stuff RateStuff	#43	#74
TackleTak	-	#101

Texas Tech Pass Game


CategoryCat	TTU Off	HOU Def
Pass GamePass	#114	#114
Pass SuccessPSuc	#97	#130
Pass ExplPExl	#116	#27
PPAExp	#111	#108
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#6	#122
F7 HavocF7	#12	#110
DB HavocDB	#118	#124

Program Comparison
TTU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

HOU 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Jones AT&T Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 85° - Wind: 16 mph

Rematch from Week 5
Texas Tech -8.5 (52.0)
Texas Tech won vs Houston this year (49-28)

Previous Matchups
Texas Tech beat Houston in 2023 (49-28)
Texas Tech beat Houston in 2022 (33-30)

HOU's OC Dana Holgorsen (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Donovan Smith (Tr)	255	396	64%	2800	22	13	7.1
Ui Ale	4	8	50%	69	1	0	8.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Parker Jenkins	99	464	3	4.7	31
Donovan Smith (Tr)	138	429	6	3.1	35
Stacy Sneed	48	282	1	5.9	58
Tony Mathis (Tr)	41	170	0	4.1	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Sam Brown	61	815	3	13.4	53
Joseph Manjack	46	577	6	12.5	49
Matthew Golden	38	404	6	10.6	39
Stephon Johnson Jr.	23	269	3	11.7	49

View Houston's Full Roster

HOU's DC Doug Belk (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
A.J. Haulcy	90	1	1	2
Malik Robinson	73	2	2	1
Jamal Morris	59	2	2	5
Isaiah Hamilton (Tr)	46	2	1	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nelson Ceaser	36	10	7	3	0
Jamaree Caldwell	26	9	7	0	0
David Ugwoegbu (Tr)	41	6	3	2	3
Anthony Holmes Jr.	20	5	3	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jamal Morris	59	2	2	5
Malik Fleming (Tr)	39	2	0	5
Isaiah Hamilton (Tr)	46	2	1	4

TTU's OC Zach Kittley (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Behren Morton	182	294	62%	1754	15	8	6.0
Tyler Shough	67	111	60%	746	7	4	6.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tahj Brooks	291	1545	10	5.3	46
Cam'Ron Valdez	51	280	1	5.5	54
Tyler Shough	48	149	2	3.1	58
Jake Strong	6	61	0	10.2	54

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Xavier White	39	556	1	14.3	72
Jerand Bradley	36	431	4	12.0	34
Coy Eakin	36	416	2	11.6	43
Myles Price	43	410	5	9.5	33

View Texas Tech's Full Roster

TTU's DC Tim DeRuyter (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ben Roberts	105	7	1	3	0
C.J. Baskerville (Tr)	77	5	0	2	5
Dadrion Taylor	72	2	1	2	7
Jesiah Pierre	66	2	1	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tony Bradford Jr.	42	6	4	1	0
Jaylon Hutchings	42	7	3	2	1
Amier Washington	4	4	3	0	0
Charles Esters III	25	5	3	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bralyn Lux (Tr)	38	3	0	0	8
Dadrion Taylor	72	2	1	2	7
Malik Dunlap	36	1	0	0	7