California at Texas Tech - 2023 Matchup Preview

California Golden Bears vs Texas Tech Red Raiders(#4)

Saturday, December 16th 2023 (9:15 PM EST)
Texas Tech -3.5 (54.5) (-145) Open: -3.0 | 58.5
Texas Tech 34 - California: 14 (Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl)

Golden Bears (6 - 7) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Justin Wilcox (32 - 37)
Avg Score : 30 - 33 (31 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.3 - 7.7 (#92)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Texas Tech -3.5 (SP+ TTU -3)
Projected Score: CAL: 28 - TTU: 31 (59)
TTU Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
CAL Travel: 1178 miles, 2 hrs behind

Red Raiders (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Joey McGuire (9 - 7)
Avg Score : 27 - 26 (33 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.3 - 6.7 (#72)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
CAL Players
TTU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

California's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	California at North Texas	-5.0	53.5	W 58 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/9	California vs Auburn	+5.0	55.5	L 10 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/16	California vs Idaho	-14.5	52.5	W 31 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/23	California at Washington	+21.0	55.5	L 32 - 59	O	N
Sat 9/30	California vs Arizona State	-13.0	47.5	W 24 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/7	California vs Oregon State	+7.5	51.0	L 40 - 52	O	N
Sat 10/14	California at Utah	+9.0	42.5	L 14 - 34	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	California vs USC	+10.5	67.5	L 49 - 50	O	Y
Sat 11/4	California at Oregon	+26.5	61.5	L 19 - 63	O	N
Sat 11/11	California vs Washington State	-1.5	58.5	W 42 - 39	O	Y
Sat 11/18	California at Stanford	-6.5	52.5	W 27 - 15	U	Y
Sat 11/25	California at UCLA	+9.5	50.5	W 33 - 7	U	Y
Sat 12/16	California vs Texas Tech	+3.5	54.5	L 14 - 34	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for California's Schedule

Texas Tech's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Texas Tech at Wyoming	-13.0	50.5	L 33 - 35	O	N
Sat 9/9	Texas Tech vs Oregon	+4.5	70.0	L 30 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/16	Texas Tech vs Tarleton State	-36.5	75.5	W 41 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Texas Tech at West Virginia	-6.0	53.5	L 13 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/30	Texas Tech vs Houston	-8.5	52.0	W 49 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Texas Tech at Baylor	-2.5	59.5	W 39 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Texas Tech vs Kansas State	-1.0	57.0	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/21	Texas Tech at BYU	-3.0	49.0	L 14 - 27	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/2	Texas Tech vs TCU	-2.5	59.5	W 35 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Texas Tech at Kansas	+3.5	61.5	W 16 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Texas Tech vs UCF	-2.0	59.0	W 24 - 23	U	N
Fri 11/24	Texas Tech at Texas	+16.5	53.5	L 7 - 57	O	N
Sat 12/16	Texas Tech vs California	-3.5	54.5	W 34 - 14	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CAL	#61 (.21)	41% (88)	30.2	44% (59)	3.39 (13)	173	38% (103)	218	4.12 (46)	#87 (.21)	45% (112)	32.8	47% (103)	44% (108)	4.4 (118)	44.8	2.2	2.2
TTU	#92 (.15)	42% (59)	27.4	47% (26)	3.36 (17)	163	39% (97)	224	3.91 (70)	#51 (.16)	41% (54)	26	42% (63)	40% (51)	3.46 (42)	49.9	1.8	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CAL	#79 (.17)	42% (88)		40% (104)	2.68 (120)	122	43% (57)	259	3.07 (125)	#48 (.14)	40% (52)		41% (53)	40% (67)	3.23 (20)	59.7	0.8	1.7
TTU	#33 (.25)	44% (50)		45% (49)	3.17 (45)	150	43% (51)	275	4.73 (7)	#104 (.23)	44% (93)		44% (76)	44% (101)	3.97 (83)	59.4	1.5	1.6

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CAL Offense	13	30.2	30.5	40.5%	4.12	2.2	21	391	173	218	4.5	50%	49%	44%	38%	18%	.21
TTU Defense	13	26	26.3	40.9%	3.46	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	48%	51%	42%	40%	15%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CAL Defense	13	32.8	33.2	45%	4.4	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	47%	44%	16%	.21
TTU Offense	13	27.4	33.3	42.5%	3.91	1.8	22	387	163	224	4.5	47%	51%	47%	39%	15%	.15

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
California	13	28:40	21.4	39%	52%	5.5	44.8	2.2	2.2	4.5	1.9	1	31.2
Texas Tech	13	28:45	21.9	40%	65%	5.4	49.9	1.8	1.3	5.2	2.2	3	30

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CAL Offense	13	50% (68)	44% (59)	38.2	173.1	4.5	26 (30)	.24 (23)	3.39 (13)	75% (60)	11% (86)	1.11 (20)
TTU Defense	13	48% (42)	42% (63)	-	-	-	-	.15 (73)	3.14 (76)	61% (11)	9% (101)	1 (74)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CAL Defense	13	47% (32)	47% (103)	-	-	-	-	.14 (67)	3.1 (67)	73% (66)	9% (98)	0.98 (55)
TTU Offense	13	47% (90)	47% (26)	36.5	162.8	4.5	17 (81)	.21 (32)	3.36 (17)	76% (47)	7% (12)	0.99 (69)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CAL Offense	13	49% (64)	38% (103)	19.8	33.4	218.2	6.5	11	22 (61)	16 (121)	.21 (92)	1.6 (49)	33% (84)	27% (96)	.33 (70)	7% (97)	2 (67)
TTU Defense	13	51% (88)	40% (51)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.21 (37)	1.5 (22)	30% (100)	28% (42)	.32 (74)	6% (71)	2.2 (108)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CAL Defense	13	52% (103)	44% (108)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.3 (88)	1.5 (34)	27% (129)	35% (121)	.36 (91)	7% (40)	1.8 (10)
TTU Offense	13	51% (46)	39% (97)	21.8	36.2	223.8	6.2	10.2	24 (41)	18 (128)	.16 (111)	1.5 (116)	30% (44)	27% (94)	.24 (97)	8% (118)	1.9 (120)

California's Power Ratings
California's Power Rating: -1.90 #75
California's Offense Rating: 15.66 #75
California's Defense Rating: 12.83 #101
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 11% #43
California's 2023 Expected Record: 5.30 - 7.70
California's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.1 #61
California's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.9 #32
California's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.8 #85

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
California: -1.90 Texas Tech: 3.15

SP+ Ratings Matchup
California: 1.1 Texas Tech: 3.7

Texas Tech's Power Ratings
Texas Tech's Power Rating: 3.15 #49
Texas Tech's Offense Rating: 15.06 #81
Texas Tech's Defense Rating: 7.91 #46
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 11 #43
Texas Tech's 2023 Expected Record: 6.30 - 6.70
Texas Tech's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.7 #52
Texas Tech's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #53
Texas Tech's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #61

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

California Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.5
Defense: 32.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 33.2

California's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Texas Tech 31
California 28

Total Points: 59

Based on Last 4 Games
Texas Tech 38
California 29

Total Points: 67

Based on Entire Season
Texas Tech 32
California 28

Total Points: 60

Texas Tech Scoring
Offense: 27.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.3
Defense: 26 PPG
Defense at Home: 26.3

Texas Tech's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	12/16	Texas Tech	34	California	14	Texas Tech -3.5	Texas Tech	54.5	Under
2004	12/30	California	31	Texas Tech	45

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Texas Tech	2	1	0 Overs
California	0	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 1	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

California Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2023	Independence Bowl	California vs Texas Tech	+3.5	54.5	L 14 - 34
2019	Redbox Bowl	California vs Illinois	-6.0	47.5	W 35 - 20
2018	It Bowl	California vs TCU	-1.5	38.5	L 7 - 10

Texas Tech Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2023	Independence Bowl	Texas Tech vs California	-3.5	54.5	W 34 - 14
2022	Texas Bowl	Texas Tech vs Ole Miss	+4.5	73.0	W 42 - 25
2021	Liberty Bowl	Texas Tech vs Mississippi State	+10.0	58.5	W 34 - 7
2017	Birmingham Bowl	Texas Tech vs South Florida	+2.0	66.0	L 34 - 38

(#75) CAL at (#49) TTU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	CAL	TTU
Power RatePwr	#75	#49
SP+SP+	#61	#52
Perf GradeGrade	#93	#47
OffenseOff	#72	#56
DefenseDef	#99	#55
Spec TeamsST	#125	#31
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#43	#43

California Injury Report

Texas Tech Injury Report

California on Offense


CategoryCat	CAL Off	TTU Def
Perf GradePerf	#72	#55
SuccessSuc	#88	#54
ExplosiveExp	#34	#40
PPAPPA	#61	#51
PowerPwr	#75	#46
SP+SP+	#32	#61
Pts POPPO	#46	#42
HavocHav	#93	#91

California Run Game


CategoryCat	CAL Off	TTU Def
Run GameRun	#31	#69
Run SuccessRSuc	#59	#63
Run ExplRExp	#20	#74
PPAExp	#23	#73
Run BlockR Blk	#114	-
OL YdsOLY	#13	#76
Stuff RateStuff	#31	#73
TackleTak	-	#12

California Pass Game


CategoryCat	CAL Off	TTU Def
Pass GamePass	#77	#52
Pass SuccessPSuc	#103	#51
Pass ExplPExl	#49	#22
PPAExp	#92	#37
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#112	#75
F7 HavocF7	#86	#101
DB HavocDB	#97	#71

Texas Tech on Offense


CategoryCat	TTU Off	CAL Def
Perf GradePerf	#56	#99
SuccessSuc	#59	#112
ExplosiveExp	#107	#47
PPAPPA	#92	#87
PowerPwr	#81	#101
SP+SP+	#53	#85
Pts POPPO	#70	#118
HavocHav	#52	#75

Texas Tech Run Game


CategoryCat	TTU Off	CAL Def
Run GameRun	#20	#121
Run SuccessRSuc	#26	#103
Run ExplRExp	#69	#55
PPAExp	#32	#67
Run BlockR Blk	#43	-
OL YdsOLY	#17	#67
Stuff RateStuff	#43	#93
TackleTak	-	#120

Texas Tech Pass Game


CategoryCat	TTU Off	CAL Def
Pass GamePass	#114	#88
Pass SuccessPSuc	#97	#108
Pass ExplPExl	#116	#34
PPAExp	#111	#88
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#6	#37
F7 HavocF7	#12	#98
DB HavocDB	#118	#40

Program Comparison
TTU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

CAL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Independence Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 47° - Wind: 8 mph

Rematch from Week 1
Texas Tech -3.5 (54.5)
Texas Tech won vs California this year (34-14)

Previous Matchups
Texas Tech beat California in 2023 (34-14)

CAL's OC Jake Spavital (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Fernando Mendoza	153	243	63%	1708	14	10	7.0
Sam Jackson (Tr)	51	97	53%	553	5	2	5.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jadyn Ott	245	1310	12	5.3	66
Isaiah Ifanse (Tr)	70	365	7	5.2	26
Ashton Stredick	42	200	2	4.8	41
Jaivian Thomas	18	110	1	6.1	27

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jeremiah Hunter	63	709	7	11.3	50
Trond Grizzell	39	590	5	15.1	54
Jack Endries	35	408	2	11.7	32
Taj Davis (Tr)	38	393	3	10.3	27

View California's Full Roster

CAL's DC Peter Sirmon (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Patrick McMorris (Tr)	88	6	1	1	7
Kaleb Elarms-Orr	87	3	1	6	6
Craig Woodson	80	4	1	0	4
Cade Uluave	67	7	2	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
David Reese (Tr)	33	9	8	4	3
Xavier Carlton	50	6	5	5	2
Cade Uluave	67	7	2	0	3
Nathan Burrell	23	3	2	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Patrick McMorris (Tr)	88	6	1	1	7
Kaleb Elarms-Orr	87	3	1	6	6
Lu-Magia Hearns III	27	0	0	0	6

TTU's OC Zach Kittley (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Behren Morton	182	294	62%	1754	15	8	6.0
Tyler Shough	67	111	60%	746	7	4	6.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tahj Brooks	291	1545	10	5.3	46
Cam'Ron Valdez	51	280	1	5.5	54
Tyler Shough	48	149	2	3.1	58
Jake Strong	6	61	0	10.2	54

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Xavier White	39	556	1	14.3	72
Jerand Bradley	36	431	4	12.0	34
Coy Eakin	36	416	2	11.6	43
Myles Price	43	410	5	9.5	33

View Texas Tech's Full Roster

TTU's DC Tim DeRuyter (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ben Roberts	105	7	1	3	0
C.J. Baskerville (Tr)	77	5	0	2	5
Dadrion Taylor	72	2	1	2	7
Jesiah Pierre	66	2	1	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tony Bradford Jr.	42	6	4	1	0
Jaylon Hutchings	42	7	3	2	1
Amier Washington	4	4	3	0	0
Charles Esters III	25	5	3	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bralyn Lux (Tr)	38	3	0	0	8
Dadrion Taylor	72	2	1	2	7
Malik Dunlap	36	1	0	0	7