Tarleton State at Texas Tech - 2023 Matchup Preview
Tarleton State logo Tarleton State Texans at Texas Tech Red Raiders(#21)Texas Tech logo
Saturday, September 16th 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
Texas Tech -36.5 (75.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Texas Tech 41 - Tarleton State: 3

 
Texans (0 - 1) (0 - 1 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 3 - 41 (3 - 41 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
TTU 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Texas Tech -5.5  (SP+ TTU -4)
TTU Win prob: 94% | Cover: 38%
Red Raiders (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Joey McGuire (9 - 7)
Avg Score : 27 - 26 (33 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.3 - 6.7 (#72)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Tarleton State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/16 Tarleton State at Texas Tech+36.575.5L 3 - 41UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Tarleton State's Schedule
Texas Tech's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Texas Tech at Wyoming-13.050.5L 33 - 35ON
Sat 9/9 Texas Tech vs Oregon+4.570.0L 30 - 38UN
Sat 9/16 Texas Tech vs Tarleton State-36.575.5W 41 - 3UY
Sat 9/23 Texas Tech at West Virginia-6.053.5L 13 - 20UN
Sat 9/30 Texas Tech vs Houston-8.552.0W 49 - 28OY
Sat 10/7 Texas Tech at Baylor-2.559.5W 39 - 14UY
Sat 10/14 Texas Tech vs Kansas State-1.057.0L 21 - 38ON
Sat 10/21 Texas Tech at BYU-3.049.0L 14 - 27UN
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/2 Texas Tech vs TCU-2.559.5W 35 - 28OY
Sat 11/11 Texas Tech at Kansas+3.561.5W 16 - 13UY
Sat 11/18 Texas Tech vs UCF-2.059.0W 24 - 23UN
Fri 11/24 Texas Tech at Texas+16.553.5L 7 - 57ON
Sat 12/16 Texas Tech vs California-3.554.5W 34 - 14UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Texas Tech's Schedule
Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TAR0%30%000%000%410%0%0000
TTU#92 (.15)42% (59)27.447% (26)3.36 (17)16339% (97)2243.91 (70)#51 (.16)41% (54)2642% (63)40% (51)3.46 (42)49.91.81.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TAR0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TTU#33 (.25)44% (50)45% (49)3.17 (45)15043% (51)2754.73 (7)#104 (.23)44% (93)44% (76)44% (101)3.97 (83)59.41.51.6



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TAR Offense1330%00000000%0%0%0%0%
TTU Defense132626.340.9%3.461.3 - - - - - 48%51%42%40%15%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TAR Defense141410%00 - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%
TTU Offense1327.433.342.5%3.911.8223871632244.547%51%47%39%15%.15

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Tarleton State10:000NAN%0%0000000100
Texas Tech1328:4521.940%65%5.449.91.81.35.22.2330
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TAR Offense10%0%000000%0%0
TTU Defense1348% (42)42% (63) - - - - .15 (73)3.14 (76)61% (11)9% (101)1 (74)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TAR Defense10%0% - - - - 00%0%0
TTU Offense1347% (90)47% (26)36.5162.84.517 (81).21 (32)3.36 (17)76% (47)7% (12)0.99 (69)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TAR Offense10%0%000000000%0%0%0
TTU Defense1351% (88)40% (51) - - - - - - 13 (26).21 (37)1.5 (22)30% (100)28% (42).32 (74)6% (71)2.2 (108)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TAR Defense10%0% - - - - - - 000%0%0%0
TTU Offense1351% (46)39% (97)21.836.2223.86.210.224 (41)18 (128).16 (111)1.5 (116)30% (44)27% (94).24 (97)8% (118)1.9 (120)

Tarleton State's Power Ratings
Tarleton State's Power Rating: NR
Tarleton State's Offense Rating: NR
Tarleton State's Defense Rating: NR
2023 Talent Rating: NR
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Tarleton State's 2023 Expected Record: -
Tarleton State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
Tarleton State's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
Tarleton State's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average Western Athletic Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Tarleton State:    Texas Tech: 5.65

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Tarleton State:    Texas Tech: 3.7




Texas Tech's Power Ratings
Texas Tech's Power Rating: 5.65  #49
Texas Tech's Offense Rating: 15.06  #81
Texas Tech's Defense Rating: 7.91  #46
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 11  #43
Texas Tech's 2023 Expected Record: 6.30 - 6.70
Texas Tech's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.7  #52
Texas Tech's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.6  #53
Texas Tech's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3  #61

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


Tarleton State Scoring
Offense: 3 PPG
Offense on Road: 3
Defense: 41 PPG
Defense on Road: 41

Tarleton State's 2023 Record
Record: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 1
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Texas Tech 37
Tarleton State 32

Total Points: 69

Based on Last 4 Games
Texas Tech 49
Tarleton State 28

Total Points: 77

Based on Entire Season
Texas Tech 36
Tarleton State 15

Total Points: 51
Texas Tech Scoring
Offense: 27.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.3
Defense: 26 PPG
Defense at Home: 26.3

Texas Tech's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202309/16Texas Tech41Tarleton State3Texas Tech -36.5Texas Tech75.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Texas Tech110 Overs
Tarleton State001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#NR) TAR at (#49) TTU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTARTTU
Power RatePwrNR #49
SP+SP+NR #52
Perf GradeGradeNR #47
OffenseOffNR #56
DefenseDefNR #55
Spec TeamsSTNR #31
TalentTalNR #1
Blue ChipsBC%NR #43
Tarleton State on Offense
CategoryCat
TAR OffTTU Def
Perf GradePerfNR #55
SuccessSucNR #54
ExplosiveExpNR #40
PPAPPANR #51
PowerPwrNR #46
SP+SP+NR #61
Pts POPPONR #42
HavocHavNR #91
Tarleton State Run Game
CategoryCat
TAR OffTTU Def
Run GameRunNR #69
Run SuccessRSucNR #63
Run ExplRExpNR #74
PPAExpNR #73
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNR #76
Stuff RateStuffNR #73
TackleTak -  #12
Tarleton State Pass Game
CategoryCat
TAR OffTTU Def
Pass GamePassNR #52
Pass SuccessPSucNR #51
Pass ExplPExlNR #22
PPAExpNR #37
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNR #75
F7 HavocF7NR #101
DB HavocDBNR #71
Texas Tech on Offense
CategoryCatTTU OffTAR Def
Perf GradePerf #56NR
SuccessSuc #59NR
ExplosiveExp #107NR
PPAPPA #92NR
PowerPwr #81NR
SP+SP+ #53NR
Pts POPPO #70NR
HavocHav #52NR
Texas Tech Run Game
CategoryCat
TTU OffTAR Def
Run GameRun #20NR
Run SuccessRSuc #26NR
Run ExplRExp #69NR
PPAExp #32NR
Run BlockR Blk #43 -
OL YdsOLY #17NR
Stuff RateStuff #43NR
TackleTak - NR
Texas Tech Pass Game
CategoryCatTTU OffTAR Def
Pass GamePass #114NR
Pass SuccessPSuc #97NR
Pass ExplPExl #116NR
PPAExp #111NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #6NR
F7 HavocF7 #12NR
DB HavocDB #118NR
Program Comparison
TTU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

TAR 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Jones AT&T Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 79°
Rematch from Week 3
Texas Tech -36.5 (75.5)
Texas Tech won vs Tarleton State this year (41-3)

Previous Matchups
Texas Tech beat Tarleton State in 2023 (41-3)

  
TAR's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Tarleton State's Full Roster

TAR's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
D.J. Harris90000
Kyle Taylor60000
Ty Rawls51000
Kasyus Kurns50001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
D.J. Harris90000
Kyle Taylor60000
Ty Rawls51000
Kasyus Kurns50001
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kasyus Kurns50001
D.J. Harris90000
Kyle Taylor60000

TTU's OC Zach Kittley (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Behren Morton18229462%17541586.0
Tyler Shough6711160%746746.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tahj Brooks2911545105.346
Cam'Ron Valdez5128015.554
Tyler Shough4814923.158
Jake Strong661010.254
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Xavier White39556114.372
Jerand Bradley36431412.034
Coy Eakin36416211.643
Myles Price4341059.533

View Texas Tech's Full Roster

TTU's DC Tim DeRuyter (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ben Roberts1057130
C.J. Baskerville (Tr)775025
Dadrion Taylor722127
Jesiah Pierre662110
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tony Bradford Jr.426410
Jaylon Hutchings427321
Amier Washington44300
Charles Esters III255321
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bralyn Lux (Tr)383008
Dadrion Taylor722127
Malik Dunlap361007