Colorado State at Middle Tennessee - 2023 Matchup Preview

Colorado State Rams at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

Saturday, September 23rd 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
Middle Tennessee -3.5 (50.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Colorado State 31 - Middle Tennessee: 23

Rams (5 - 7) (4 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jay Norvell (3 - 11)
Avg Score : 19 - 31 (17 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.7 - 5.3 (#63)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

CSU 2nd straight Road Game
MTSU 2nd straight Home Game
MTSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Middle Tennessee -0.5 (SP+ CSU -0.5)
Projected Score: CSU: 26 - MTSU: 26 (52)
MTSU Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
CSU Travel: 1065 miles, 1 hrs behind

Blue Raiders (4 - 8) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Rick Stockstill (110 - 105)
Avg Score : 22 - 31 (24 - 33 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.1 - 6.9 (#98)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
CSU Players
MTSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Colorado State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Colorado State vs Washington State	+9.5	54.0	L 24 - 50	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/16	Colorado State at Colorado	+23.0	63.0	L 35 - 43	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Colorado State at Middle Tennessee	+3.5	50.0	W 31 - 23	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Colorado State vs Utah Tech	-19
Sat 10/7	Colorado State at Utah State	-3.0	62.0	L 24 - 44	O	N
Sat 10/14	Colorado State vs Boise State	+7.5	60.0	W 31 - 30	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Colorado State at UNLV	+6.5	60.0	L 23 - 25	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Colorado State vs Air Force	+14.5	47.0	L 13 - 30	U	N
Fri 11/3	Colorado State at Wyoming	+6.0	41.0	L 15 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/11	Colorado State vs San Diego State	-3.5	46.5	W 22 - 19	U	N
Sat 11/18	Colorado State vs Nevada	-12.5	45.5	W 30 - 20	O	N
Sat 11/25	Colorado State at Hawai'i	-6.0	54.0	L 24 - 27	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Colorado State's Schedule

Middle Tennessee's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Middle Tennessee at Alabama	+39.5	52.0	L 7 - 56	O	N
Sat 9/9	Middle Tennessee at Missouri	+21.0	47.5	L 19 - 23	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Middle Tennessee vs Murray State	-34.5	51.0	W 35 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/23	Middle Tennessee vs Colorado State	-3.5	50.0	L 23 - 31	O	N
Thu 9/28	Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky	+6.5	61.0	L 10 - 31	U	N
Wed 10/4	Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State	-2.5	52.0	L 30 - 45	O	N
Tue 10/10	Middle Tennessee vs Louisiana Tech	-3.0	53.5	W 31 - 23	O	Y
Tue 10/17	Middle Tennessee at Liberty	+16.0	56.5	L 35 - 42	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State	+3.0	55.5	L 7 - 13	U	N
Sat 11/11	Middle Tennessee vs Florida International	-10.5	50.5	W 40 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Middle Tennessee vs UTEP	-8.5	48.5	W 34 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/25	Middle Tennessee at Sam Houston	-3.5	49.5	L 20 - 23	U	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CSU	.05	34%	18.5	36%	2.91	89	32%	197	1.96	.16	43%	30.8	44%	43%	4.24	60.4	1.6	1.7
MTSU	.14	40%	22.4	40%	2.69	109	41%	265	3.45	.1	41%	30.9	40%	43%	3.63	58.8	1.4	2.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MTSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CSU Offense	12	18.5	16.6	33.7%	1.96	1.6	15	286	89	197	2.8	46%	54%	36%	32%	24%	.05
MTSU Defense	13	30.9	32.5	40.9%	3.63	2.8	-	-	-	-	-	41%	58%	40%	43%	20%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CSU Defense	12	30.8	36	43.1%	4.24	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	44%	43%	17%	.16
MTSU Offense	13	22.4	24	40.3%	3.45	1.4	20	374	109	265	3.2	40%	59%	40%	41%	18%	.14

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Colorado State	12	29:28	14.7	23%	39%	6.9	60.4	1.6	1.7	5.4	1.8	2	28.7
Middle Tennessee	13	28:42	20.2	34%	58%	6.6	58.8	1.4	2.8	6.4	2.7	6	31.8

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CSU Offense	12	46%	36%	32.1	89	2.8	4	.04	2.91	61%	18%	1.01
MTSU Defense	13	41%	40%	-	-	-	-	.04	2.64	55%	10%	0.95

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CSU Defense	12	52%	44%	-	-	-	-	.15	3.1	77%	10%	1.02
MTSU Offense	13	40%	40%	34.7	109.5	3.2	20	.1	2.69	76%	12%	1

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CSU Offense	12	54%	32%	16.9	26.8	196.8	7.3	11.6	12	11	.08	1.8	39%	23%	.21	6%	2.4
MTSU Defense	13	58%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	20	.25	1.6	33%	35%	.36	9%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CSU Defense	12	47%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.22	1.4	31%	30%	.25	7%	2
MTSU Offense	13	59%	41%	26.2	39.4	264.8	6.7	10.1	21	11	.21	1.5	33%	32%	.33	5%	1.9

Colorado State's Power Ratings
Colorado State's Power Rating: -3.44 #83
Colorado State's Offense Rating: 15.50 #78
Colorado State's Defense Rating: 9.05 #62
2023 Talent Rating: 413.96 #108
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Colorado State's 2023 Expected Record: 6.70 - 5.30
Colorado State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.1 #99
Colorado State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.7 #93
Colorado State's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.9 #101

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 517.06
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Colorado State: -3.44 Middle Tennessee: -5.82

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Colorado State: -9.1 Middle Tennessee: -9.4

Middle Tennessee's Power Ratings
Middle Tennessee's Power Rating: -5.82 #101
Middle Tennessee's Offense Rating: 12.27 #109
Middle Tennessee's Defense Rating: 9.72 #69
2023 Talent Rating: 487.98 #90
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Middle Tennessee's 2023 Expected Record: 5.10 - 6.90
Middle Tennessee's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.4 #100
Middle Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #92
Middle Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #89

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 303.49
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Colorado State Scoring
Offense: 18.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.6
Defense: 30.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 36

Colorado State's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Middle Tennessee 26
Colorado State 26

Projected Total Points: 52

Middle Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 22.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 24
Defense: 30.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 32.5

Middle Tennessee's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/23	Middle Tennessee	23	Colorado State	31	Middle Tennessee -3.5	Colorado State	50.0	Over
2022	09/10	Colorado State	19	Middle Tennessee	34	Colorado State -13.5	Middle Tennessee	58.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Middle Tennessee	1	1	1 Overs
Colorado State	1	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 0
Road Teams	2 - 0	2 - 0	0 - 0	2 - 0

(#83) CSU at (#101) MTSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	CSU	MTSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#83	#101
SP+SP+	#99	#100
Perf GradeGrade	#84	#125
OffenseOff	#84	#122
DefenseDef	#78	#107
Spec TeamsST	#114	#43
TalentTal	#108	#90
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Colorado State Injury Report

Middle Tennessee Injury Report

Colorado State on Offense


CategoryCat	CSU Off	MTSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#84	#107
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#78	#69
SP+SP+	#93	#89
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Colorado State Run Game


CategoryCat	CSU Off	MTSU Def
Run GameRun	#129	#96
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#41	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#93

Colorado State Pass Game


CategoryCat	CSU Off	MTSU Def
Pass GamePass	#101	#100
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#59	#78
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Middle Tennessee on Offense


CategoryCat	MTSU Off	CSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#122	#78
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#109	#62
SP+SP+	#92	#101
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Middle Tennessee Run Game


CategoryCat	MTSU Off	CSU Def
Run GameRun	#96	#99
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#135	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#58

Middle Tennessee Pass Game


CategoryCat	MTSU Off	CSU Def
Pass GamePass	#59	#72
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#56	#23
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
MTSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'23 Profile: Remains Average G5

CSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Up to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Johnny Red"" Floyd Stadium""
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 4
Middle Tennessee -3.5 (50.0)
Colorado State won at Middle Tennessee this year (31-23)

Previous Matchups
Colorado State beat Middle Tennessee in 2023 (31-23)

CSU's OC Matt Mumme (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi	292	470	62%	3460	22	16	7.4
Clay Millen	15	24	63%	110	0	1	4.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Vann Schield	90	389	3	4.3	52
Justin Marshall	57	311	2	5.5	21
Avery Morrow	81	262	2	3.2	13
Kobe Johnson	44	128	1	2.9	13

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tory Horton	96	1136	8	11.8	76
Dallin Holker (Tr)	64	767	6	12.0	42
Justus Ross-Simmons	45	724	3	16.1	75
Louis Brown	47	481	5	10.2	46

View Colorado State's Full Roster

CSU's DC Freddie Banks (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jack Howell	114	1	0	3	3
Chase Wilson	107	9	4	1	3
Justin Sanchez	87	4	1	2	3
Henry Blackburn	75	7	3	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mohamed Kamara	55	16	12	10	1
Marshon Oxley	26	6	4	1	0
Chase Wilson	107	9	4	1	3
Tony Pierce Jr.	31	5	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jack Howell	114	1	0	3	3
Dom Jones	32	0	0	0	3
Justin Sanchez	87	4	1	2	3

MTSU's OC Mitch Stewart (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Nick Vattiato	286	428	67%	3087	23	13	7.2
DJ Riles	7	8	88%	78	0	0	9.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaiden Credle (Tr)	89	427	2	4.8	71
Nick Vattiato	139	402	2	2.9	30
Frank Peasant	82	306	4	3.7	37
Terry Wilkins	18	146	1	8.1	75

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Holden Willis (Tr)	46	697	5	15.2	62
Elijah Metcalf	54	634	6	11.7	71
Justin Olson (Tr)	43	450	1	10.5	42
DJ England-Chisolm	28	347	3	12.4	72

View Middle Tennessee's Full Roster

MTSU's DC Scott Shafer (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Sam Brumfield	82	7	4	8	0
Jakobe Thomas	71	3	0	0	5
Tra Fluellen	64	3	0	1	3
Parker Hughes	53	7	3	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Sam Brumfield	82	7	4	8	0
Richard Kinley	20	7	3	3	3
Zaylin Wood	16	4	3	2	2
Parker Hughes	53	7	3	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Quindarius Dunnigan	34	9	2	5	8
Tyrell Raby (Tr)	29	0	0	0	6
De'Arre McDonald	18	4	1	0	6