Middle Tennessee at Sam Houston - 2023 Matchup Preview

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Sam Houston Bearkats

Saturday, November 25th 2023 (12:00 PM EST)
Middle Tennessee -3.5 (49.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Sam Houston 23 - Middle Tennessee: 20 (Conference USA)

Blue Raiders (4 - 8) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Rick Stockstill (110 - 105)
Avg Score : 22 - 31 (21 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.1 - 6.9 (#98)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

SHSU is playing their 10th straight game
MTSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Middle Tennessee -1 (SP+ MTSU -4)
Projected Score: MTSU: 26 - SHSU: 25 (52)
MTSU Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
MTSU Travel: 637 miles

Bearkats (3 - 9) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach K. C. Keeler (85 - 29)
Avg Score : 18 - 38 (18 - 38 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.6 - 7.4 (#106)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MTSU Players
SHSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Middle Tennessee's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Middle Tennessee at Alabama	+39.5	52.0	L 7 - 56	O	N
Sat 9/9	Middle Tennessee at Missouri	+21.0	47.5	L 19 - 23	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Middle Tennessee vs Murray State	-34.5	51.0	W 35 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/23	Middle Tennessee vs Colorado State	-3.5	50.0	L 23 - 31	O	N
Thu 9/28	Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky	+6.5	61.0	L 10 - 31	U	N
Wed 10/4	Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State	-2.5	52.0	L 30 - 45	O	N
Tue 10/10	Middle Tennessee vs Louisiana Tech	-3.0	53.5	W 31 - 23	O	Y
Tue 10/17	Middle Tennessee at Liberty	+16.0	56.5	L 35 - 42	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State	+3.0	55.5	L 7 - 13	U	N
Sat 11/11	Middle Tennessee vs Florida International	-10.5	50.5	W 40 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Middle Tennessee vs UTEP	-8.5	48.5	W 34 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/25	Middle Tennessee at Sam Houston	-3.5	49.5	L 20 - 23	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Middle Tennessee's Schedule

Sam Houston's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Sam Houston at BYU	+19.0	46.5	L 0 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Sam Houston vs Air Force	+13.5	36.5	L 3 - 13	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/23	Sam Houston at Houston	+11.5	37.0	L 7 - 38	O	N
Thu 9/28	Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State	+6.5	36.5	L 28 - 35	O	N
Thu 10/5	Sam Houston at Liberty	+21.0	46.5	L 16 - 21	U	Y
Wed 10/11	Sam Houston at New Mexico State	+4.5	43.0	L 13 - 27	U	N
Wed 10/18	Sam Houston vs Florida International	-6.0	42.0	L 27 - 33	O	N
Wed 10/25	Sam Houston vs UTEP	-4.0	38.5	L 34 - 37	O	N
Sat 11/4	Sam Houston vs Kennesaw State	-16.5	41.5	W 24 - 21	O	N
Sat 11/11	Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech	+8.5	49.5	W 42 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Sam Houston at Western Kentucky	+12.5	52.0	L 23 - 28	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Sam Houston vs Middle Tennessee	+3.5	49.5	W 23 - 20	U	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MTSU	.14	40%	22.4	40%	2.69	109	41%	265	3.45	.1	41%	30.9	40%	43%	3.63	58.8	1.4	2.8
SHSU		35%	17.8	41%	2.69	0	30%	0	2.55	.06	35%	37.8	36%	35%	2.98	0	0	0

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MTSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
SHSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MTSU Offense	13	22.4	20.8	40.3%	3.45	1.4	20	374	109	265	3.2	40%	59%	40%	41%	18%	.14
SHSU Defense	1	37.8	37.8	35%	2.98	0	-	-	-	-	-	45%	54%	36%	35%	2884%	.06

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MTSU Defense	13	30.9	29.3	40.9%	3.63	2.8	-	-	-	-	-	41%	58%	40%	43%	20%	.1
SHSU Offense	1	17.8	17.8	35.3%	2.55	0	0	0	0	0	0	49%	51%	41%	30%	1398%

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Middle Tennessee	13	28:42	20.2	34%	58%	6.6	58.8	1.4	2.8	6.4	2.7	6	31.8
Sam Houston	1	0:00	0	NAN%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	30.1

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MTSU Offense	13	40%	40%	34.7	109.5	3.2	20	.1	2.69	76%	12%	1
SHSU Defense	1	45%	36%	-	-	-	-	-.04	2.36	70%	2882%	0.91

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MTSU Defense	13	41%	40%	-	-	-	-	.04	2.64	55%	10%	0.95
SHSU Offense	1	49%	41%	0	0	0	0	.08	2.69	71%	1396%	1.06

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MTSU Offense	13	59%	41%	26.2	39.4	264.8	6.7	10.1	21	11	.21	1.5	33%	32%	.33	5%	1.9
SHSU Defense	1	54%	35%	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	.18	1.7	37%	25%	.22	2%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MTSU Defense	13	58%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	20	.25	1.6	33%	35%	.36	9%	2
SHSU Offense	1	51%	30%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	-.07	1.6	36%	28%	.26	2%	2.2

Middle Tennessee's Power Ratings
Middle Tennessee's Power Rating: -7.24 #101
Middle Tennessee's Offense Rating: 12.27 #109
Middle Tennessee's Defense Rating: 9.72 #69
2023 Talent Rating: 487.98 #90
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Middle Tennessee's 2023 Expected Record: 5.10 - 6.90
Middle Tennessee's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.4 #100
Middle Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #92
Middle Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #89

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 303.49
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: -7.24 Sam Houston: -9.21

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: -9.4 Sam Houston: -13.5

Sam Houston's Power Ratings
Sam Houston's Power Rating: -9.21 #118
Sam Houston's Offense Rating: 11.59 #113
Sam Houston's Defense Rating: 8.82 #57
2023 Talent Rating: 240.42 #132
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Sam Houston's 2023 Expected Record: 4.60 - 7.40
Sam Houston's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.5 #112
Sam Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.2 #120
Sam Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #82

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 303.49
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Middle Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 22.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.8
Defense: 30.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.3

Middle Tennessee's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Middle Tennessee 26
Sam Houston 25

Projected Total Points: 52

Sam Houston Scoring
Offense: 17.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 17.8
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 37.8

Sam Houston's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/22	Middle Tennessee	31	Sam Houston	17	Middle Tennessee -6.5	Middle Tennessee	53.5	Under
2023	11/25	Sam Houston	23	Middle Tennessee	20	Middle Tennessee -3.5	Sam Houston	49.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Sam Houston	1	1	0 Overs
Middle Tennessee	1	1	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	2 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 1

(#101) MTSU at (#118) SHSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MTSU	SHSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#101	#118
SP+SP+	#100	#112
Perf GradeGrade	#125	#103
OffenseOff	#122	#121
DefenseDef	#107	#28
Spec TeamsST	#43	#129
TalentTal	#90	#132
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Middle Tennessee Injury Report

Sam Houston Injury Report

Middle Tennessee on Offense


CategoryCat	MTSU Off	SHSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#122	#28
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#109	#57
SP+SP+	#92	#82
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Middle Tennessee Run Game


CategoryCat	MTSU Off	SHSU Def
Run GameRun	#96	#73
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#135	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#13

Middle Tennessee Pass Game


CategoryCat	MTSU Off	SHSU Def
Pass GamePass	#59	#8
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#56	#107
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Sam Houston on Offense


CategoryCat	SHSU Off	MTSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#121	#107
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#113	#69
SP+SP+	#120	#89
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Sam Houston Run Game


CategoryCat	SHSU Off	MTSU Def
Run GameRun	#136	#96
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#132	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#93

Sam Houston Pass Game


CategoryCat	SHSU Off	MTSU Def
Pass GamePass	#67	#100
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#90	#78
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
SHSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'23 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

MTSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'23 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bowers Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 13
Middle Tennessee 3.5 (49.5)
Sam Houston won vs Middle Tennessee this year (23-20)

Previous Matchups
Middle Tennessee beat Sam Houston last year (31-17)
Sam Houston beat Middle Tennessee in 2023 (23-20)

MTSU's OC Mitch Stewart (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Nick Vattiato	286	428	67%	3087	23	13	7.2
DJ Riles	7	8	88%	78	0	0	9.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaiden Credle (Tr)	89	427	2	4.8	71
Nick Vattiato	139	402	2	2.9	30
Frank Peasant	82	306	4	3.7	37
Terry Wilkins	18	146	1	8.1	75

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Holden Willis (Tr)	46	697	5	15.2	62
Elijah Metcalf	54	634	6	11.7	71
Justin Olson (Tr)	43	450	1	10.5	42
DJ England-Chisolm	28	347	3	12.4	72

View Middle Tennessee's Full Roster

MTSU's DC Scott Shafer (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Sam Brumfield	82	7	4	8	0
Jakobe Thomas	71	3	0	0	5
Tra Fluellen	64	3	0	1	3
Parker Hughes	53	7	3	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Sam Brumfield	82	7	4	8	0
Richard Kinley	20	7	3	3	3
Zaylin Wood	16	4	3	2	2
Parker Hughes	53	7	3	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Quindarius Dunnigan	34	9	2	5	8
Tyrell Raby (Tr)	29	0	0	0	6
De'Arre McDonald	18	4	1	0	6

SHSU's OC Brad Cornelsen (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Keegan Shoemaker	264	419	63%	2504	15	11	6.0
Grant Gunnell	14	22	64%	100	0	1	4.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
John Gentry (Tr)	119	394	3	3.3	28
Keegan Shoemaker	93	254	1	2.7	29
Adrian Murdaugh	26	117	2	4.5	48
Noah Smith	27	106	2	3.9	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Noah Smith	79	782	6	9.9	42
Malik Phillips	35	430	1	12.3	41
Al'Vonte Woodard	31	339	2	10.9	26
John Gentry (Tr)	35	261	2	7.5	56

View Sam Houston's Full Roster

SHSU's DC Clayton Carlin (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trevor Williams	114	8	2	4	0
Kavian Gaither	62	5	1	0	1
Caleb Weaver	42	1	0	0	4
Da'Marcus Crosby	42	1	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaiah Nixon	23	6	5	1	1
Chris Scott	15	4	3	0	0
Trevor Williams	114	8	2	4	0
Markel Perry	30	5	2	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Da'Veawn Armstead	9	0	5
Dakerric Hobbs	28	1	5
Caleb Weaver	42	1	4